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Chris Lau's  Instablog

Chris Lau
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Chris ( is an Hon B.Sc graduate (with distinction) in Science and Economics with over 15 years in investing experience. Ranked top 100 analyst (TipRanks) for two years in a row. Seeks undervalued, unappreciated value stock ideas. Follows Warren Buffet's mantra: do not... More
My company:
Stocks for Self-Taught Investors
My blog:
SA Performance
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    In the last two years, readers rushed to #3, #4, and #5 on SeaDrill (NYSE:SDRL), Micron Technologies (NASDAQ:MU). More recently in the late summer, Kinder Morgan (NYSE:KMI) was a #9.

    Other News

    Seeking Alpha Premium will launch a tracker allowing for sharing my equity positions. I've already shared portfolio performance each month. This will make it easier.

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    (Monthly return, 65% equity, 35% cash)

    Position tracker

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    Today's proverb

    Wealth gained hastily will dwindle, but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.

    Nov 21 9:48 AM | Link | 1 Comment
  • Why Qualcomm Is The Chip-Nary In The Proverbial Coal Mine

    The mighty "Mr. Market" showed investors once again why it knows everything ahead of everyone else. Like Micron Technologies (NASDAQ:MU), Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM) fell steadily in the last year. Today, its stock capitulated by falling 9 percent.

    QCOM Chart

    QCOM data by YCharts

    Micron was an early pick in the premium subscription, but the market's momentum was firmly against it. One strike. Value was there (stock is in the single P/E). Check. Micron's chart never reversed.

    Free cash flow decelerates: (Use this free fundamental charting tool for a limited time!)

    In the next few months, readers will pick at Qualcomm and guess it is at a bottom. The problem is that Samsung wants its future products run on Samsung processors. It does not want to pay any IP fees. The Korean giant is simultaneously growing its memory chip output. Micron will get crushed. Mind you, this is a few years away so the bearish case on Micron is not permanent.

    Followers: there were more posts about stocks having red flags than outright buying ideas. The dramatic fall in SunEdison (NYSE:SUNE) and GoPro (NASDAQ:GPRO) suggests stock pickers will outperform the market this time around.

    Tags: QCOM, MU
    Nov 18 9:19 PM | Link | Comment!
  • What Exactly Is Wrong With SuneEdison, And What To Do Next?

    Reading about investors losing $10,000, $20,000, or $30,000 on SunEdison (NYSE:SUNE) after its epic plunge today is disheartening. It is difficult for some investors to realize that adding more to the losing position is unlikely to be the right thing to do. Unless a few things happen, the market is signalling bad ahead. Instead of cancelling the purchase of Vivint Solar (NYSE:VSLR), management is determined to take on more debt.

    Minimizing losses is the basis of DIY investing. I write frequently (if not more often) about what went wrong, than on what went right. It is not popular to market defensive investing. That is why I lowered the monthly subscription rate temporarly.

    Investors are ignoring SolarCity (NASDAQ:SCTY) too. Elon Musk bought shares of the stock recently, but he did this when it was $40+ before that.

    SCTY Chart

    SCTY data by YCharts

    Via marketvis.IO, a free charting site (free for a limited time), a check of SUNE shows the enormous debt weighing on the company. Below, blue line and bar:


    EBIT collapsed for both VSLR and SUNE in the last four years. Conversely, First Solar (NASDAQ:FSLR) and Trina Solar (NYSE:TSL) maintained its earnings.

    Will SUNE investors jump ship and switch to FSLR or TSL? Probably not, but in a few weeks time they will find out if switching out of SUNE was the right move.

    Learn more about DIY - do-it yourself - Investing, but you will have to open your mind to ideas, selling losers go and letting your winners run higher.

    Tags: FSLR, TSL, SUNE, scty
    Nov 17 8:34 PM | Link | Comment!
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