Seeking Alpha

Chris Lau's  Instablog

Chris Lau
Send Message
+Follow a 20+ year DIY investor and top 50 blogger. *** Exclusive Research 19 May 2015: Spread between Micron and IMOS widened to +18% *** Value ideas on deck this week: $KING $BABA $AMAT $PBF. *** Exclusive Research 16 May 2015: Best call last week +8%. Worst call -1%, ~3% loss avoided LUCK and... More
My company:
DIY (Do-it-yourself) Value Investing
My blog:
SA Performance
View Chris Lau's Instablogs on:
  • Top Picks And Why BlackBerry Is Next

    Top plays take time to play out. Valeant (Biovaile) (NYSE:VRX) took four years to play out, and is still moving up. Gilead (NASDAQ:GILD) will probably continue its path upwards. The TAM for Hep treatment is massive.

    In the components space, Synaptics (NASDAQ:SYNA) returned 195 percent. Its success is one of many reasons companies like Himax (NASDAQ:HIMX), InvenSense (NYSE:INVN), and STMicro (NYSE:STM) are on the research list of stocks.

    (click to enlarge)

    Data source

    Raxspace (NYSE:RAX) was an easy call. Its focus on customer care and support gave the firm an edge. This is where (NYSE:IBM) wants to be in the cloud computing space.

    (click to enlarge)

    In the mobile space, Nokia (NYSE:NOK) was an aging mobile play. Then Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) bought the smart phone devices division. That acquisition was lucky for Nokia and for the "buy" call. It was really only a matter of time that the partner would take over the unit.

    (click to enlarge)

    Nokia is not a premium research pick at this time. There are more gains, but there are better buy ideas that should beat Nokia in 2015 and 2016.

    BlackBerry (NASDAQ:BBRY) is still an underperformer. Like the picks above, the "buy" call will take some time to play out. Traders who stay bearish should exercise caution. Years feel like decades. Months feel like years. If this research call plays out correctly, my ranking may go up, but it's not about that. It's about making money while your friends wonder why you own or use BlackBerry.

    (click to enlarge)

    -15.6% is the buy/sell return. Premium research subscribers will view the actual buy/sell activity between 2011/2 - 2015: BBRY was a buy AND sell play, and is NOT top three holding. There are better ideas for members that will beat BBRY.

    The return spread between the freely available calls and premium subscription is a positive 10-12 percent. Win-win for subscribers and +Followers.

    As BBRY plays out its niche moat enterprise strategy, expect the company to make headlines in a good way.

    Subscribers receive the narrative and real-time access to the model portfolio's top 15 holdings.

    Tags: BBRY, NOK
    May 23 11:13 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Good Daily Return

    Daily Return

    Watching the portfolio move up strongly for one day does not meant much, but it is still fun to do so.

    The majority of the picks in an article sent to premium subscribers is green. The Dow is down today, Nasdaq up slightly. I expect a major turn of events to the downside. The big question is when.

    Thanks (NASDAQ:BBRY). Six other picks helped today too.

    The cash level means the portfolio is only 65 percent invested.

    Quarterly Return:
    Click follow (left) and get updated when next set of returns is reported. It's FREE.

    TitleSymbolLong/Date of3m from
    4 Reasons Pain For Freeport-McMoRan Is EndingFCXLong2/2/201525.00%
    5 Reasons BP Is A Buy Ahead Of Quarterly ResultsBPLong1/25/201510.50%
    4 Things To Consider For Linn Energy As Uncertainty RisesLINELong1/20/201548.10%

    Sign up above and note excellent refund policy. BBRY was not the biggest winner today. Here is a portfolio view (preview only) for 15 stock holdings.

    Tags: BBRY
    May 11 12:22 PM | Link | 2 Comments
  • Nokia's Quarter Weak: Alcatel-Lucent In Focus Next

    FREE: Don't miss out. Follow and "get real-time alerts."

    WHY be penny wise, pound foolish? BEWARE of authors who claim a peak return of 40% return in months. DEMAND proof.

    SUBSCRIBE to the PREMIUM newsletter at below market rates - 'Value Stocks for DIY (Do it yourself) Investors' includes access to real-time portfolio, monthly performance report, and timely actionable alerts.

    Ranked #51 out of 3591 Bloggers last year (#61 out of 6798 total experts) (TipRanks). #31 blogger for 2013 (from over 3,700 bloggers). This author searches for value and catalysts. Follows Warren Buffet's mantra: do not lose money. *Insights posted on and Twitter.


    This was originally posted Apr 22, 8:48 PM for premium subscribers. Nokia's quarterly results are out this a.m.

    In the next few weeks, there may be a catalyst for Alcatel-Lucent or Nokia stock moving up: quarterly results. Nokia reports on April 30, 2015. If the results are good, Nokia will rally. Similarly, Alcatel-Lucent reports on May 7 2015.

    Nokia (NYSE:NOK) is "paying" for the firm with its shares. Debt raters loved the deal, upgrading the rating of Nokia's debt. Unfortunately,Alcatel-Lucent may fall between now and in 2016, when the deal closes.

    ...The problem I have with owning Alcatel-Lucent (NYSE:ALU) is that the recovery thesis is no longer valid. The bullish thesis is now based on Nokia cutting costs in 2016, winning out contracts for LTE/4G in China over Ericsson (NASDAQ:ERIC),Cisco Systems (NASDAQ:CSCO), and other Chinese network equipment firms.

    Merger motivated by boosting market share size. ALU executives get rewarded nicely, but let's ignore that:

    (click to enlarge)

    Source: Nokia

    For readers bullish on Nokia and confident the merger will go through...<more>

    Subscribe to get play by play strategy for Alcatel-Lucent in May and for Nokia beyond the current quarter.

    Exclusive Interview of this author found here.

    The model portfolio is up 40 percent.

    Tags: NOK, ALU
    Apr 30 8:16 AM | Link | Comment!
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers


More »

Latest Comments

Most Commented
  1. Beat The Market In 2014 (2 Comments)
  2. Good Daily Return (2 Comments)
Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.