Seeking Alpha

Chris Lau's  Instablog

Chris Lau
Send Message
Hon B.Sc graduate (with distinction) in Science and Economics with over 15 years in investing experience. Ranked top 100 analyst (TipRanks) for two years in a row. Seeks undervalued, unappreciated value stock ideas. Follows Warren Buffet's mantra: do not lose money. +Follow for FREE. Send me a... More
My company:
DIY (Do-it-yourself) Value Investing
My blog:
SA Performance
View Chris Lau's Instablogs on:
  • Apple Rebounds, But Overall Market May Stumble

    Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) fell a few points from its 115. At the time, exclusive subscribers were advised not to worry. Apple fell to as low as $92 the following Monday. This dip was short-lived. HFTs and algos control volume, but do not create a buy/sell opportunity. I asked readers to follow a check list. This check prevented them from selling, and thus giving up on the rebound that happened just two days later:

    Buy or Sell

    Per our model holdings, do you sell them? Do you buy? The check-list on deciding is below.

    I believe the market's sentiment will weaken further. I introduced some new ideas in the last post, expecting them to fall. On the follow-up, I'll either post downside target prices (entry points for buying) or will send an article posting alert.

    1. If the stock falls more, would you buy? If no, then sell. If yes, then keep holding.

    2. Do you lose sleep at night? If yes, then sell, because it's only money. Your health matters more.

    3. Is there accounting irregularity with Apple? If not, then hold.

    4. Is Management incompetent?

    Is:
    5. Apple a penny stock? No.
    6. Heavily in debt?* No.
    7. Business model broken? No, unless demand for its mainstay product, the iPhone 5 series and 6, are on perpetual decline. Consumers are loyal to the brand, and with Samsung's missteps, are less likely to switch to a Galaxy.

    * Apple issued more debt. It raised $50B in the last two years. It is doing so since the value of holding cash offshore is worse than holding debt, paying interest on it but writing down the interest.

    Market bounce temporary: sell into it

    Markets continued climbing higher, on news the U.S. will delay rate hikes.

    Get a rate hike out of your head. It will never happen. No one in the world is raising rates. There is a greater desire for money printing and low borrowing. There are two problems with this thought:

    1. China has likely sold somewhere on the order of $100 billion in US Treasurys in the past two weeks alone (Source: zero hedge)

    2. Companies exhausted stock buybacks. They were the biggest buyers of their own stock.

    For a sample report or for more questions on the premium subscription, diyvalueinvestor@gmail.com.

    Tags: AAPL, AAPL
    Aug 27 9:20 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Finding The Next Home Run Stock

    There is a slew of investing picks for Premium Research subscribers this summer, but the market is getting trickier by the day. There are frothy sectors everywhere. See the biotech or tech sector.

    Conversely, the energy sector is approaching yearly lows again. Cenovus (NYSE:CVE) and Chesapeake (NYSE:CHK) have yet to rebound.

    Finding alpha takes time, patience*, and discipline. This justifies raising the monthly subscription after reaching a maximum (but rewarding early subscribers the fixed, introductory rate).

    This is what patience looks like for one of the stock picks: a ~75% rebound from irrational lows:

    Future topics - Value Stocks for Do-it Yourself Investors:

    • How to break-even from a losing situation
    • Reading a balance sheet in three minutes
    • Managing the invisible elephant in the room: risk
    • Knowing when having too much cash a good thing
    • The next big home run stock is no mystery, because you already watch it
    Tags: SPY
    Jun 14 3:45 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Good Daily Return

    Daily Return

    Watching the portfolio move up strongly for one day does not meant much, but it is still fun to do so.

    The majority of the picks in an article sent to premium subscribers is green. The Dow is down today, Nasdaq up slightly. I expect a major turn of events to the downside. The big question is when.

    Thanks (NASDAQ:BBRY). Six other picks helped today too.

    The cash level means the portfolio is only 65 percent invested.

    Quarterly Return:
    Click follow (left) and get updated when next set of returns is reported. It's FREE.

    TitleSymbolLong/Date of3m from
    Shortpublicationpublication
    4 Reasons Pain For Freeport-McMoRan Is EndingFCXLong2/2/201525.00%
    5 Reasons BP Is A Buy Ahead Of Quarterly ResultsBPLong1/25/201510.50%
    4 Things To Consider For Linn Energy As Uncertainty RisesLINELong1/20/201548.10%

    Sign up above and note excellent refund policy. BBRY was not the biggest winner today. Here is a portfolio view (preview only) for 15 stock holdings.

    Tags: BBRY
    May 11 12:22 PM | Link | 2 Comments
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers

StockTalks

More »

Latest Comments


Most Commented
  1. Beat The Market In 2014 ( Comments)
  2. Good Daily Return ( Comments)
Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.