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Chris Moreno, CFA

 
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  • Intel: Second Quarter And Second Half 2013 [View article]
    Great, thanks for the reply Russ.
    Jul 8 02:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: Second Quarter And Second Half 2013 [View article]
    Hey Russ, thanks for your analysis on this. Given that sell side analysts are coming in well below your estimates, what do you think is causing the large disconnect? Basically, why do you think most sell side analysts are significantly more pessimistic about INTC's guidance than you are? Also just so everyone has the same numbers I'm looking at:

    Sell Side Consensus vs Russ Fischer's ests

    Revenue
    2Q: $12.89b / $12.90b (same)
    3Q: $13.72b / $14.20b (3.5% higher)
    4Q: $14.37b / $15.38b (7.0% higher)

    Gross Margins
    2Q: 57.9% / 58.0% (10bps higher)
    3Q: 60.6% / 62.4% (180bps higher)
    4Q: 61.7% / 62.4% (70bps higher)

    EPS Adjusted
    2Q: 40c / 46c (15% higher)
    3Q: 52c / 65c (25% higher)
    4Q: 59c / 74c (25% higher)

    I know that Evercore came out with a negative INTC note this morning, any thought on that piece? Also given that expectations are well below INTC's guidance it seems like even just a reiteration of guidance (or only a slight downward revision) would be well received by the street, do you think that makes sense?

    Thanks again for your article, definitely found it helpful.

    + Chris
    Jul 8 10:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Recommendation Update: Expect A 19% IRR For Bank Of America, But With More Downside Risk [View article]
    Just an update on returns about 11mths out on my bank stock recommendations. Overall, my recommendations performed well with my top picks outperforming my hold recommendations by about 51% on average over this period. As a reminder, I recommend investors own C & JPM and high risk tolerance investors also own BAC (avg return 74%). I was less positive on WFC and USB (avg return 23%) as I felt there was less upside there given their valuations at the time. Also just for context the S&P over that period was up 28%. I've summarized the returns below (which includes dividends, but assumes they were not reinvested in the stock):

    TOTAL RETURN (6/12/12 - 5/16/13), not annualized
    C = +85%
    BAC = +80%
    JPM = +56%
    WFC = +30%
    USB = +15%

    Thanks for everyone's feedback & comments when I initially published.
    May 16 10:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Forget The Warrants, Just Go Long Bank Of America For The Best Risk / Reward [View article]
    Thanks for your questions orthokneepa.

    Yes, I did account for the warrant strike price being adjusted down with dividend payments.

    And yes, based on the way I did my math, I took into account the leverage inherent in the options.

    Hadn't actually looked at the results of this recommendation in awhile, but assuming you bought on the close of the next day following publication of this note this is how you would have done at least through today (on a total return basis, assuming divs aren't reinvested):

    TOTAL RETURN (5/17/12 - 5/16/2013)
    BAC = +94%
    BAC Series A = +80%
    BAC Series B = +11%

    So at least through today owning the stock produced a better return than owning either warrant. Having said that, what I think made the stock more compelling at the time of recommendation was that the upside potenial return profile looked decent but maybe even more importantly the downside risk was much more limited than the warrants (should my positive view on the stock prove incorrect). Hope that's helpful.
    May 16 09:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lululemon: Quality Issues More Extensive Than Reported [View article]
    Great analysis.

    Was wondering if you have a sense for the approximate % of total pant sales that groove pants represent? I think you noted that management disclosed that their black Luon pants were 17% of total pant sales. Just trying to size up what kind of impact we'd be talking about if there was a long-term impact to sales of this item.

    Thanks for the thoughtful write-up.
    Apr 26 11:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Takeaway From Nvidia's Investor Day [View article]
    Nice write-up Kevin. I think you hit on all of the major take-aways from NVDA's analyst day. I think investors are still unappreciating the impact of this buyback announcement. Plus given that the the firm has significant cash reserves, this buyback authorization could always be increased if the stock takes a step back on PC-related issues. Basically the excess cash could provide support to the stock and as the buybacks are excuted the stock will begin to look cheaper on a P/E-basis. Obviously investors that are following the stock closely already adjust their valuation for this excess cash, but casual investors and those using screening tools can often overlook this "hidden" value. Hopefully as the P/E comes down, NVDA will screen better and drive up interest. Anyway, thanks again for the nice write-up.
    Apr 16 10:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Wireless Tower Firms Call On Moats To Succeed [View article]
    Quick question--In your switching cost paragraph you said it would cost a carrier 20x monthly rent in switching costs. Implying a 1.7yr payback period. Then later in the same paragrahp you say the cost would be $40k to get $200/mth of savings implying a 17yr payback period. Which is correct? Thanks, Chris
    Mar 4 02:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Forget The Warrants, Just Go Long Bank Of America For The Best Risk / Reward [View article]
    Hey pone, fair point, I used the term a little losely. In a later article I believe I was a bit more careful with my terminology. Hope this article is more helpful - http://seekingalpha.co...
    Oct 26 09:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: There's Certainly A Bull Case [View article]
    Much appreciated!
    Oct 2 11:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: There's Certainly A Bull Case [View article]
    Ashraf, thanks for another very good article. I'm not super familiar with the semiconductor space and a few of these terms went over my head, would you be able to recommend a intro type paper on the semiconductor space? Would just like to get my head around some of the terms, players, and history. Appreciate it.
    Oct 2 10:13 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • No Chance Of Intel Inside The iPhone: Is Intel's Mac Position Safe? [View article]
    Well-balanced and thoughtful article Ashraf. Thanks for writing.
    Sep 30 11:13 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Forget The Warrants, Just Go Long Bank Of America For The Best Risk / Reward [View article]
    Thanks another. I haven't rerun my analysis but volatility is down quite a bit for the mkt overall since May so it wouldn't surprise me if the BAC warrants look more attractive now, but I'll reserve judgment until I've run the numbers. As for Citi, I've done a similar analysis on their warrants before and I have generally opted to pass because they are just too far out of the money. It is possible that over the next 7 years or so the stock could cross the strike price, but it's a pretty serious long shot and I'd feel more comfortable just betting on the stock in Citi's case in particular.
    Sep 7 01:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Key Trends Pressuring Zynga's Business--And The Numbers To Back It Up [View article]
    Thanks Killer Whale. Glad you enjoyed the article. I think Zynga did a great job of being very aggressive early on, figuring out how to leverage FB's social network to grow the popularity of their games, and monetizing earlier (and more aggressively than peers), the problem long-term, at least as I see it, is that the firm competes in a market with essentially no barriers to entry and limited upfront capital to get involved. It's very difficult to predict the ultimate winner in those types of businesses. Having said that with about $2 of cash on the B/S, shorting ZNGA at this level is a tough, unless you're of the view that the firm will swing to negative cash flow generation in the near-term and not recover.
    Aug 30 09:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dell's Stumble Offers An Attractive Entry Point [View article]
    I have not. Not because of any great insight though. I understand the headwinds both companies face, which are very real, but these are the kind of stocks I like. My thesis is pretty simple--both firms have clean balance sheets, cheap valuations, and the market is pretty negative on them. I can't say for sure if they'll eventually make it or not, but if I buy a basket of stocks that look like this (e.g. strong B/S, cheap valuations, with very negative sentiment), my belief is that on average the market has gotten overly negative on them. Time will tell if they're both duds or not, but for the time being, I'm sticking with them.
    Aug 26 12:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dell's Stumble Offers An Attractive Entry Point [View article]
    Great article Tim. So what do you think is the true bear case for this stock that makes the current valuation actually still to high?

    FD: I'm currently long both DELL & HPQ.
    Aug 22 07:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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