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Chris Orr's  Instablog

Chris Orr
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Chris Orr CCM has been advising commodities traders and investment firms about weather and climate trends for more than 20 years. In his 30+ year career as a meteorologist, he has also forecast weather for power utilities, airlines, corporate aviation departments, construction, major motion... More
My company:
Chris Orr LLC
My blog:
Global Extreme Weather Outlook Podcast
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  • Weather Similarities Between Now And 1993

    1993 was the year of the great Great Plains flood when heavy rain swelled both the Mississippi and Missouri rivers. It was devastating. Today I went back and looked at the 1993 jet stream pattern from January 1 to April 20 and compared it to other years. And this year is very similar.

    There are enough dissimilarities that I cannot say that this summer will be a carbon copy of 1993 (such as the remnant polar vortex and the developing El Nino), but I will have to watch the weather pattern closely.

    A longer article will follow and my newsletter at ChrisOrrWeather.com is where I am writing about it in much more detail.

    But, I though I'd throw it out there today for any of you who are trying to hedge on CORN, wheat (WEAT), soybeans (SOYB) and cattle (COW) or the underlying futures.

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Apr 22 6:31 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Thoughts On May Freezes

    This week's frost and freeze wasn't all that unusual but I am concerned about two more in May. Both could reach as far south as Kansas, Arkansas and Tennessee around May 11 and again May 21. Both look like one night events, but both could really harm emerging crops and force replanting of corn (CORN) and soybeans (SOYB).

    And a late season frost or freeze is still possible for New York, Ohio and Pennsylvania as cold air continues to lurk over eastern Canada in early June.

    Yesterday's heavy snow over and near the headwaters of the Mississippi River - and two more storms with significant precipitation yet this month and three next month - means the threat of flooding along the Mississippi still exists. Agricultural land will be at risk, as well as barge traffic and the refining operations at Memphis.

    El Nino update - the warmest conditions (5C to 6C above normal) are approaching 100W at a depth of 25-50 meters below the ocean's surface. So it is rising and continuing to head toward Ecuador and Peru. It's on pace with last week's forecast.

    I'll have a few other tidbits on Twitter today @ChrisOrrCCM

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Apr 17 6:46 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Extreme Weather Watch List For April 10

    Here are some of the extreme weather events I am watching today:

    • Frost/freeze across Eastern Europe next week and the following week will damage grains
    • Tropical cyclone will move from Queensland, Australia, coast to New Zealand's North Island
    • Brief Mississippi Valley severe weather outbreak Sunday, flash flood risk for Chicago Sunday night
    • Record or near-record cold early next week for Minneapolis, Chicago, Detroit, Pittsburgh, Buffalo and New England.
    • Mississippi Valley heavy rain event April 18-21
    • Central Plains storm April 27-30
    • Europe cold wave last week of April
    • Late season frost/freeze eastern Corn Belt
    • Emergent El Nino April 30
    Apr 10 1:16 PM | Link | Comment!
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