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Chris Ridder, CFA  

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  • Inflation And The Money Base [View article]
    The reference I used was to describe a cross-correlogram. The SA editor did not like the original Wikipedia link and asked me to use other. I picked the link you describe above; however, it was only meant to educate people unfamiliar with the concept of a cross-correlogram.

    To be very clear it was in no way an endorsement or adherence to an empirical methodology / ideology.
    Mar 9, 2013. 02:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Inflation And The Money Base [View article]
    For the theoretical underpinning of why the money base is linked to inflation the text "The Mystery of Banking" by Dr. Murray Rothbard was used. http://amzn.to/13NteWz

    This text does not use any empirical methods to prove its hypothesis, but rather a prior, deductive reasoning. The above empirical research shows an outcome consistent with pure theory. The text also explains why only 14.9% of the movement was explained; it is very difficult to model consumer expectations about future inflation.

    I did not publish the research in the article, since it is beyond Statistics 101, but I did perform Granger Causality analysis. http://bit.ly/15EmdFz

    It showed, with a lag period of 2, that the null hypothesis "money base does not Granger Cause cpi" was rejected at the 10% level with a p-value of .09927. The null hypothesis "cpi does not Granger Cause money base" was NOT rejected with a p-value of .53714
    Mar 9, 2013. 12:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Where Are GM's Cars Disappearing To? [View article]
    Please check your inbox
    Mar 8, 2013. 12:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Where Are GM's Cars Disappearing To? [View article]
    If they are building excess inventory then why is production down in Dec 2012 in front of this upgrade?
    Mar 6, 2013. 10:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Where Are GM's Cars Disappearing To? [View article]
    If you look at the first table you will find that GMIO, which should include china, produced 1.59 million more cars then it sold the last two years.

    From the table it would appear that these were exported to Europe (GME) and South America (GMSA). However, there is still a remainder.
    Mar 5, 2013. 06:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Where Are GM's Cars Disappearing To? [View article]
    If you look at the GM's web page link in the article you will find a PDF labeled "Production by Plant" and find that from Dec 2012 - Feb 2013 all production was for the 2013 model year.

    I have looked over these from Oct. 2010- Feb. 2012 and I have only see the production switching around the summer months.
    Mar 5, 2013. 06:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Where Are GM's Cars Disappearing To? [View article]
    I have not been able to find the information prior to November 2009 for dealer inventory. The ratio of inventories to deliveries (actual customer sales) climbed in February, to 3.31, from 3.19 a year ago, 2.50 two years ago, and 3.02 three years ago.
    Mar 5, 2013. 04:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Producers Least Bearish/Money Managers Most Since 2008 [View article]
    I like your reply. However, one time I saw the Commercials very net short and speculators very net long, in Coffee in the 1990's, and on the charts it looked like the scenario you described would occur again.

    Then, over the weekend a freeze occurred in Brazil and Coffee raced up towards $3 a pound. The Commercials were the big losers in this case.

    Just goes to show that Investing/Trading is never a "Slam Dunk".
    Feb 26, 2013. 12:40 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Economic Derailment [View article]
    Railfax agrees that intermodal is more important. Look under the analysis tab on the website. However, I am more agnostic about this premise currently.

    Intermodal means using rail and trucks to deliver the freight. With high gas prices, I hypothesize that freight that at one time might have moved solely by truck is now being moved by truck and rail to its final destination. Hence, my reasoning, possibly wrong, not to give this category as much weight currently.
    Feb 26, 2013. 11:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GM's Subprime Roadtrip [View article]
    To be very clear the information was under GM's financing arm, GM Financial.

    8.2% is under "GM Financial Finance Receivables, Net (Tables)" in the footnotes and then under "Past Due Financing Receivables".
    Here is a link (Navigate to Notes Tables and then past due is at the bottom of the GM Financial Finance Receivables... ):
    http://1.usa.gov/YGIehB#

    Again, the Ford information of 2.49% is on page 122 of its annual report pdf with the SEC. Here is the link (which opens a pdf):
    http://1.usa.gov/134Z9B2

    Having 8.2% delinquent & .3% in repo is not a good trend!
    Feb 20, 2013. 01:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GM's Subprime Roadtrip [View article]
    I have been unable to find the same credit score information on Ford that GM provides. However, Ford does report delinquent accounts.
    On page 122 of its Annual Report PDF, from SEC, one can find that for North America consumers $953 mm are 31 days or more past due out of $38,240 mm outstanding, or 2.49%. 2.19% is number for all of Ford (North America + International). GM shows 8.2% past due and .3% in repossession.
    Feb 19, 2013. 06:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Disasters: Unfair Stimulus [View article]
    I wondered who would be the first to expound the "broken window fallacy" on SeekingAlpha and it happened to be you. Look at this "stock talk" post I wrote in 2011: http://bit.ly/QbMqYF

    The article I linked to also said, "It would be an advantage for a manufacturer to have his factory and equipment destroyed by bombs only if the time had arrived when, through deterioration and obsolescence,..." comes after the part you quoted and this makes it clear the original author was talking about the owner of the plant.

    "...but most read it with a mind block on rather than with an open mind to think it through. Welcome to that club." Please keep the prose to dealing with the issues and not ad hominem attacks.

    "I guess I can start the clock to your rebuttal argument/article." There will be no article at this time, readers will have to do the research from the linked article or just google "broken window fallacy".
    Nov 2, 2012. 04:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GM's Credit Policy: Trick, Not Treat [View article]
    Sir or Madam,

    The numbers of subprime credit growth are in the first table in the article.

    I also wrote, "GM did increase sales in North America by 1.9% in the 3rd Quarter, from $22.9 billion to $23.344 billion."

    23.344 - 22.9 = .444 Billion or $444 million

    I also wrote, "Accounts receivable with credit scores under 599 increased by $501 million"

    501 > 444

    Therefore when subprime sales slow so will GMNA sales growth.
    Please read the article and look at the numbers in it before accusing one of lying.
    Nov 2, 2012. 12:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Disasters: Unfair Stimulus [View article]
    Here is a link that rebuts the arguing of this article:

    http://bit.ly/Tz6uU3
    Nov 2, 2012. 11:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Best Buy Is A Better Purchase Than Amazon.com [View article]
    " Please respond with fundamental data to refute my points ..."
    BBY released earnings this morning found here: http://1.usa.gov/RzCSa0

    The model to value BBY has 3.9% Operating Income Margin in 2012 and 3.7% in 2013. Today BBY reported it was 1.2% for the quarter and that is non-GAAP adjusted. If restructuring charges were included it was only .3%.

    The model shows revenues dropping gradually, by about -1%, and then increasing after 2014. Today BBY reported it dropping -3% and same store sales dropping -3.2%. To break it down further the model had international sales growing 3% a year, while today it was reported dropping -4.7% YOY. Same store sales were at -8.2% for the international segment. The domestic same store sales were down -1.6%.

    The model had a gross profit margin % of 25.1, but BBY reported it at 24.3%.

    The model has SGA expense of 21.2-21.3%. Today BBY reported SGA expense of 22.1% for Domestic stores and 26.2% for International.

    It appears all this data refutes the model used in the valuation.
    Aug 21, 2012. 12:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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