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Chris Ridder

 
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  • Corn ETF Plays Part 2 [View article]
    Here is a link to another article about the problems heat can cause on corn yield during the silking and pollination process.
    http://bit.ly/Oey5XY
    Jul 2 05:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Corn ETF Plays Part 2 [View article]
    If we get rain I could see corn pullback 50 - 75 cents just because it is a weather market and based on technicals. That said, this video on youtube shows that in some parts it could be too late for rain: http://bit.ly/OepdBv

    If the market thinks rain will solve the problem, then let it drop if rain comes, and make a trading plan to enter the corn market on the long side. My understanding is that soybeans will respond to rain better than corn in helping the plant get back to full yield potential.
    Jul 2 04:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Corn ETF Plays Part 2 [View article]
    I believe that the % harvested of the acreage was dropped while the total acreage planted was increased. Take a look at this link:

    http://bit.ly/MXry2r
    Jun 29 12:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Corn ETF Plays Part 2 [View article]
    The CORN etf will track the prices of corn futures. It is weighted in three different corn contracts, so it will not just reflect the most actively traded contract (see like above for details).

    If corn yields drop, ie. supply curve shifts left, and the demand curve stays the same prices would rise. If the demand curve shifts to the right then there is a possibility of a falling price (very unusual and unlikely I think). Don't confuse a shift in the demand curve from movement along the demand curve. As the price of corn raises there will be less demanded along the demand curve, but how much depends upon the elasticity of the demand curve. The price of corn would stop rising once a new equilibrium is reached, i.e. a switch to cheaper feeds such as soymeal or feed wheat.
    Jun 29 09:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Stock Buying Moment For Long-Term Investors [View article]
    There is one difficulty I find with this study. Some of the member's of the Dow 30 today were not in the Dow 30 in 1999. Look at this link for date's when stocks were added to the Dow 30.

    http://bit.ly/NrEK0p

    CVX entered the Dow in 2008
    CSCO entered the Dow in 2009
    VZ entered the Dow in 2004

    All three stocks have lower than the average FCF % in 1999, and CSCO & VZ have much greater than average FCF % in 2011, with CVX just a bit under the average.

    If one is going to make an apples to apples comparison, it would appear appropriate to take out these three stocks in order examine the question, "Would you have been interested in buying the Dow at under 4000? "

    This analysis also raises another question, "What about the stocks that left the Dow 30 over this time period?"
    Jun 25 04:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Baker Hughes' Bearish Clues [View article]
    I found this article interesting:
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Jun 11 03:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Baker Hughes' Bearish Clues [View article]
    Most certainly not. You most definitely have me confused with someone else.
    Jun 10 12:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Baker Hughes' Bearish Clues [View article]
    My time horizon is not 2-3 years. If I am wrong I will have to take a loss, that is trading. Nothing is 100%.
    Jun 9 10:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Baker Hughes' Bearish Clues [View article]
    No, I have not made any comment or article to buy BHI ten days ago
    Jun 9 07:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Questioning The Pop In Corn Yields [View article]
    Here is a link to June's WASDE analysis:

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Jun 6 10:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • European Banks Trading Below Tangible Book Value And Near 2009-Crisis Lows [View article]
    TAS is correct. One has to believe that the banks marks are accurate in order to trade below tangible book. The smart money does not.
    Jun 1 09:32 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Using Covered Calls To Increase Your Yield: Gravy For A Dividend Growth Portfolio [View article]
    Selling a covered call is equivalent to selling short a put. Check out put-call parity. http://bit.ly/LGvK2F

    Brokers like covered calls because you pay the commission twice. Once to purchase the stock and the other to sell the call.
    One can cut costs by just selling puts.

    If fully backed by cash selling puts should give the same return, before costs, as buying a stock and selling a call. The risk is also the same.
    May 30 03:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Questioning The Pop In Corn Yields [View article]
    I am looking at the World data for Corn from the USDA

    Link for data:
    http://1.usa.gov/JfwqiN

    I know corn, wheat, and other "coarse grains" can be substitutes for one another. That said the data for corn using the lastest USDA data shows a stocks to use ratio of 14.94% in the 2012/13 crop year. This is much lower than the 21.05% average stocks to use ratio for world corn from 1960-2011/12.
    May 14 03:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GM: Turbocharged By Subprime Under The Hood [View article]
    Good Question!

    Here is a link to the data from FICO itself:
    http://bit.ly/JpcZBp

    In 2007, before the recession, the % from 300 - 549 was 15.1% and in 2011 it was 15.0%. The category 550-599 was 8.7% in 2007 and grew to 9.9% in 2011.

    There was a very slight increase observed in the distribution of those with lower credit scores comparing 2007 to 2011. However, the lower two categories of credit scores decreased in value from 2010 to 2011, and only a .3% increase occurred in the 550-599 category. This is the period which GM's large increase in lower credit score financial receivables is seen in the article.
    May 6 11:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Stay Far Away From YPF And Its High Dividend Yield [View article]
    http://bit.ly/HLdkl2
    Apr 16 01:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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