Chris Uhlir

The Labor Market's Worse than We Think

Awhile back there was an article on here titled No Long Term Deleveraging. Yeah right!

Every portion of our economy is shrinking as it should upon reversal of a credit bubble. People need to look at local solutions. Canning tomatoes is a worthwhile endeavor. Fixing bicycles is worthwhile. Trading with your neighbor for his eggs is valuable again. Go to your local farmers market. Start inventing our way out of this. Creative destruction is necessary. If its smart for big money to diversify out of dollars its also smart for our local banks to do the same. And our local economies will follow. That is sustainability. Getting government off our backs by just going around them. Stop depending on big finance (CIT and CITI). Maybe a local banker will see the wisdom in accepting barter bucks as depositable. There is where you will find a local economy that will thrive after the government inflates us all out of the price of a loaf of bread.

Singapore's Shipping Glut Bad News for the S&P

From another SA article:
The Baltic Dry Index, a measure of shipping costs for commodities, rose to a seven-month high of 2,645, in London on strong Chinese demand for iron ore, coal, and grains. Crude oil rose above $60 a barrel after China increased crude imports by 14% in April to 3.9-million barrels a day. Soybeans rose to $11.65 / bushel, as US stockpiles are dwindling to a five-year low of 130 million bushels, the USDA said.

I guess what we are really seeing is boatloads of monetary demand versus production demand. Thus ships can be sitting idle yet prices still moving strongly.

Is the U.S. Dollar Headed for a Mighty Crash? Part I

The bottom line is this, the government will do whatever it wants to the currency values and we the people are apparently too stupid to stop them. Now its just a matter of diversifying yourself out of dollars. Like I have been saying. "If the US makes the world pay for oil in $ and then devalues the dollar by 10-20-30%, what will happen to the price of oil??" Hint: ^. (disclosure: long oil, another big shock is inevitable)

Find a local barter group and start earning credit with you local business people. If your goods and services are not denominated in dollars then when the big slide happens you will still be able to afford an oil change. Google "local currencies".

Singapore's Shipping Glut Bad News for the S&P

MHFT,

Can you juxtapose the sinking ships with the Baltic Dry Index please? Cause I too only see some crazy bad market fundamentals. Don't those matter anymore?

Oil Undervalued, Despite Drop in Demand

Here is why I think the price of oil has not much to do (currently) with supply and demand...

If the U.S. makes the world buy oil in dollars and then we devalue the dollar by 10%-15%-20%, pick your number, what do you think will happen to the price of oil? Now say it loudly please. hint: ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Which Vehicle Is Best for a Long Bet on Oil?

Did anyone mention passive trust income such as NYSE:BPT. These have no other purpose but to pass along a dividend based on per barrel revenues. Oil spot up, revenues up, dividends up. Anyone care to extend discussion here?

Which Vehicle Is Best for a Long Bet on Oil?

UP, Care to elaborate anymore on how higher cost producers will be more profitable?

On May 08 10:44 AM Uncle Pie wrote:

> if you think the price of a commodity is going to rise, the most
> earnings leverage will be found in the high-cost producers, contrary
> to what you might think. In the case of oil, we are talking the
> producers in the Canadian oil sands. The pure play here is Canadian
> Oil Sands trust (seekingalpha.com/symbo...).

Which Vehicle Is Best for a Long Bet on Oil?

UH,
Ditto me for DXD I mentioned in the article. Feels like another sucker's bet manipulated by Wall Street again a-la Fed/GS. And these guys think they can hide it. The nerve.


On May 08 06:49 PM urbanhiker wrote:

> I have held OIL for 4 months, naively thinking it would appreciate
> along with the price of oil. Wrong! As the rollover occurs to the
> next month in a contango, you lose money even if the price of oil
> is increasing. The chart of this ETF bears me out.

Which Vehicle Is Best for a Long Bet on Oil?

Thank you for providing such great answers.

Whippet, could I read more in your personal SA blog on your recommendations for trading software and your data feed source and costs?? Trying to get started surfing these waves!


On May 08 02:35 PM Whippet wrote:

> Look at the LEAPS bull call spreads on liquid optionable securities
> for some interesting high risk/reward plays. I like Jan 2011 spreads
> on USO (35/45 costs 2.85 today and returns a max of 7.15 (250% profit)
> if USO climbs 35% in 17 months). You can tweak these to your level
> of bullishness. I've made a 100% return on a similar play opened
> 3 months ago already. You can also buy ATM or ITM LEAPS and sell
> near month, higher strike calls to pay for time decay and lower your
> basis. You obviously forsake dividends with this strategy and it
> doesn't work well on some tickers.

The Hole in the New Property Appraisal Rules

The new rules, forms and methods required for comparing houses affecting appraisors just adds more costs to the process. My spouse is now upping her fees in response and taking twice as long to perform the analysis.

Hotels Are Blessed: Ignore the News

I think the real risk here is not incomes but rather the price of oil. Gas and oil prices are not continuing to go down in the face of overwhelming supply because excess cash liquidity provided by the government has to land somewhere. And as UE continues to rise people will continue the downward spiral of spending less and driving less. Demand destruction at work should indicate shorting these puppies.

Long Treasury Bonds vs. Short (Deflation vs. Inflation)

We can have both people!! I don't have any problems with the justification people use for inflation vs deflation. They are all right. The government can print money and quant ease and the Austrians will call that inflation (on money supply). Fine. The monetarists will point to velocity and real street prices and call deflation which is very true right now too (See www.ism.ws/about/Media...).

The opinion I want instead is when deflation will change to inflation. The indicators I think to watch are oil, housing, and bond prices and unemployment rates. Why? Well of course oil because its price ripples through everything we do in since all our food is shipped 100s of miles. Housing because housing requires lots of materials in bulk so a bottom on housing supply and price will be a major switch. And when the bond investors start to expect inflation they will switch out of bonds. Lastly, a jobs turnaround will prime the inflation pump. Until some combination of these things happens we get nothing but deflation.

Is a Manufacturing Rebound in the Works?

With consistent large loss of jobs this is pointless. It's just basic demand coursing through the system. A Walgreens manager found he needed to restock masking tape and fruitloops. The level of economic activity brought on by the housing boom/bust is not going to come back quickly.

World Oil Snapshot: Big Picture and Investable Advice

Brilliant piece on the geo political oil military industrial regimes. Thank you for entertaining smart minds everywhere. The long game has never been summarized so well before.

I agree completely that global warming be damned we need to drill. As for global warming I tend to believe 6 billion people are going to have an impact but its not as important as liberals make it out to be. How self agrandizing they are! But developing "local" oil only buys us time. It doesn't get to the end game which is... After consuming all the prehistoric biomass what next? Nuclear fer shur dude! Go Fitz!

But for the time being I think oil pretty much dominates my long investment ideas.

Peak Oil as a Function of Earth's Volume

How could they have nothing to do with each other when all of the oil we will ever know about is contained within the earth??!!

The volume of earth is not a statistic, it is a fact.

And because oil has never been found deeper than 30000 feet means it never will be?? Thats just 5-6 miles out of 7000+ miles.

I never assumed oil bubbles up ala The Beverly Hillbilllies, I just want to point out that >90% of the contents within the volume of earth is not known to us humans... yet.

On Apr 28 03:02 PM enviro111 wrote:

> It is absolutely preposterous to use volume of Earth statistics and
> oil reserves in the same analysis. They have almost nothing to do
> with each other. For starter's oil has never been found deeper than
> 30,000 feet in the Earth. It is almost always found in sedimentary
> rocks, and was created as a result of a previous severe global warming
> episode on the Earth about 75 million years ago. It does not 'bubble
> up' from the core of the Earth.