Chris Uhlir

Solar, commodities, long only, energy
Chris Uhlir
Solar, commodities, long only, energy
Contributor since: 2009
Consider that U.S. oil demand fell to a 16-year low in 2012 despite energy-hungry gadgets and the addition of some 40 million people to the total population.
http://on.mktw.net/1cz...
In my article I wrote "Once solar conversion rates improve a couple more orders of magnitude..."
To wit: http://bit.ly/1cLI6by
'Each 1cmX1cm chip can convert 200-250 watts, on average, over a typical eight-hour day in a sunny region.'
'By combining electrical and thermal collection units into a single setup, the research team predicts the HCPVT system would be able to convert 80 percent of the captured solar energy into a usable form.'
This represents the orders of magnitude improvement I predicted and could launch human energy consumption on its way to being net carbon zero.
@ryanclarke
Thank you so much for such an astute observation of
NEEDS VS. WANTS:
If the Fed continues to inflate ... the price of items not 'normally' purchased on credit ... food, gasoline, clothes, basics toiletries, etc.
will soar in price ...
at the same time ...
the price of items normally purchased on credit ( homes, boat, and cars ) will fall ... until the companies that make these items go bankrupt.
The price of money is it's interest rate. The interest rate reflects the supply vs. demand for money. Right now, lots of supply (QEI, II,III...) vs. little demand means low prices (aka interest rate). Contrary to popular belief, the private-for-profit bank known as The Fed does not control interest rates. Rates are low because people are not demanding loans because they lost their JOBS in the face of swelling global labor supply enabled by instant communication technology and fast transportation. Inflation will resume when demand for loans picks up and the Velocity of money normalizes.
Could you describe how the entry points are determined on the 200 day mva strategy you are implementing here?
From www.tallahassee.com/ar...
...
In 2005, residents of Fryeburg, Maine, blocked construction in a residential neighborhood of a water-truck loading station that would ship water out of the area. Nestle sued the town five times, eventually landing the case before the Maine Supreme Court, where Nestle argued that the residents did not have the authority to interfere with its business practices. The Maine Supreme Court allowed Nestle to move forward with its construction plans, overturning the lower court decisions that had supported the residents.
In some cases, citizen persistence has paid off and Nestle has been forced to conform to public pressure. In McCloud, Calif., residents were able to block a Nestle deal that would have granted it unlimited access to groundwater. This effort took six years of litigation and public pressure before Nestle backed off. After a 10-year fight in Mecosta County, Mich., Nestle was forced to cut the amount it would pump in half, down to 300,000 gallons a day after a judge threatened it with an injunction that would have prevented any water extraction.
As Annie Leonard's YouTube film "The Story of Bottled Water" reminds us, bottled water is a result of "manufactured demand" — where water bottlers have sought to create fear and doubt about tap water while creating a product that is 2,000 times as expensive as tap water and pollutes the planet at every step of the production chain. Over 80 percent of the plastic bottles end up in landfills or even worse, such as in the Pacific garbage gyre, where millions of tons of plastic float in the middle of the ocean.
The Wacissa River is one of the few remaining pristine rivers in North Florida and a valuable asset for local recreation and ecotourism. Any changes to this river should be based on transparent science without political interference that places the ecological and public interests above private profit. Given the track record, local residents should prepare themselves for a long, expensive fight if they hope to defend this river from Nestle.
Just the number of comments on this article shows that people are Fearing & Loathing D.C. and Wall Street. People are finally seeing the game for what it really is- fictitious. Its a joke and we are all buying into it. $500 trillion in derivative assets in 5 banks vs. $50 trillion in world GDP?!?!?! That is a joke. These banks don't hold real wealth. The gov't won't let us audit Ft Knox because nothing is there. The Fed won't let us audit it because it has no real wealth. Just play money that we all need to find an alternative to.
So lets start buying out of it because every fiat currency, every gov't, every nation-state goes through a life cycle and America and its dollars are on the way to the end. Pay off debt so we are not enslaved to the banks. Move your money to local credit unions. Do business with local banks that keep your mortgage. Local and regional banks should start keeping gold in reserves. Just as a doctor used to take a chicken in payment, we need to diversify out of dollars into barter, chickens, etc. Invest in things of real value such as canned goods, emergency water supply, raise a garden.
From www.shadowstats.com/ar...

The deterioration in median household income has resulted in greater variance in income, as shown in the second graph, which has negative longer term economic implications. A person earning $100,000,000 per year is not going to buy that many more automobiles that someone earning $100,000 per year. The stronger the middle class is, generally the stronger will be the economy. Historically, extremes in income variance usually are followed by financial panics and economic depressions. Income variance today is higher than it was coming into 1929 and 1987, and it is nearly double that of any other "advanced" economy.
This is a good set of ratios to use in stock picking
Venezuela May Yield Twice As Much Oil As Was ThoughtFebruary 1, 2010 - 12:57 pm
Chris Rhodes
Professor Chris Rhodes is Director of Fresh-lands Environmental Actions and has published more than 400 articles and 4 books.
The Orinoco Oil Belt is now reckoned to contain 513 billion “technically recoverable” barrels of oil, or more than double the previous estimate of 235 barrels.
I am horrified. Look at the "sound" financial advice "we the people" receive about saving more for retirement, paying down debt and controllling one's spending. How am I supposed to feel patriotic about giving my taxes to government(s) that spends wildly in deficit, rewards its cronnies in the financial system with billions in bailouts for leveraging 100 to 1, and continues to wage wars that cost more then any costs needed for education facilities and health care for all? Dissent is the highest form of patriotism
Thanks for the research. This stock is coming shining thru on my stock screen of P/S < 1, P/E <10, return on equity > 10%, profit margins >10%, and momentum of recent share price >3% below 50 day MVA and market cap > $1B. Seems like a no brainer after your risk analysis.
Cramped on Land, Big Oil Bets at Sea
finance.yahoo.com/real...
Wall Street doesn't give two hoots about Main St because nobody can stop them.
Mayer Rothschild said:
Let me issue and control a nation’s money and I care not who writes the laws. — G. Edward Griffin, The Creature from Jekyll Island, American Opinion Publishing, p. 218.
This is the Jesuits’/Rothschilds’ golden rule. The one who has the gold makes the rules!
Griffin then writes:
The Rothschild dynasty had conquered the world more thoroughly, more cunningly, and much more lastingly than all the Caesars before or all the Hitlers after them. — Ibid, p. 218.
Thomas Jefferson has this to say about the central bank.
A private central bank issuing the public currency is a greater menace to the liberties of the people than a standing army... We must not let our rulers load us with perpetual debt. — Ibid. p. 329.
Finding companies like these and buying below the 200 day moving avg and holding for long periods will pay off! Simple, works. Thanks for great heads up screen.
Awhile back there was an article on here titled No Long Term Deleveraging. Yeah right!
Every portion of our economy is shrinking as it should upon reversal of a credit bubble. People need to look at local solutions. Canning tomatoes is a worthwhile endeavor. Fixing bicycles is worthwhile. Trading with your neighbor for his eggs is valuable again. Go to your local farmers market. Start inventing our way out of this. Creative destruction is necessary. If its smart for big money to diversify out of dollars its also smart for our local banks to do the same. And our local economies will follow. That is sustainability. Getting government off our backs by just going around them. Stop depending on big finance (CIT and CITI). Maybe a local banker will see the wisdom in accepting barter bucks as depositable. There is where you will find a local economy that will thrive after the government inflates us all out of the price of a loaf of bread.
From another SA article:
The Baltic Dry Index, a measure of shipping costs for commodities, rose to a seven-month high of 2,645, in London on strong Chinese demand for iron ore, coal, and grains. Crude oil rose above $60 a barrel after China increased crude imports by 14% in April to 3.9-million barrels a day. Soybeans rose to $11.65 / bushel, as US stockpiles are dwindling to a five-year low of 130 million bushels, the USDA said.
I guess what we are really seeing is boatloads of monetary demand versus production demand. Thus ships can be sitting idle yet prices still moving strongly.
The bottom line is this, the government will do whatever it wants to the currency values and we the people are apparently too stupid to stop them. Now its just a matter of diversifying yourself out of dollars. Like I have been saying. "If the US makes the world pay for oil in $ and then devalues the dollar by 10-20-30%, what will happen to the price of oil??" Hint: ^. (disclosure: long oil, another big shock is inevitable)
Find a local barter group and start earning credit with you local business people. If your goods and services are not denominated in dollars then when the big slide happens you will still be able to afford an oil change. Google "local currencies".
MHFT,
Can you juxtapose the sinking ships with the Baltic Dry Index please? Cause I too only see some crazy bad market fundamentals. Don't those matter anymore?
Here is why I think the price of oil has not much to do (currently) with supply and demand...
If the U.S. makes the world buy oil in dollars and then we devalue the dollar by 10%-15%-20%, pick your number, what do you think will happen to the price of oil? Now say it loudly please. hint: ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Did anyone mention passive trust income such as NYSE:BPT. These have no other purpose but to pass along a dividend based on per barrel revenues. Oil spot up, revenues up, dividends up. Anyone care to extend discussion here?
UP, Care to elaborate anymore on how higher cost producers will be more profitable?
On May 08 10:44 AM Uncle Pie wrote:
> if you think the price of a commodity is going to rise, the most
> earnings leverage will be found in the high-cost producers, contrary
> to what you might think. In the case of oil, we are talking the
> producers in the Canadian oil sands. The pure play here is Canadian
> Oil Sands trust (seekingalpha.com/symbo...).
UH,
Ditto me for DXD I mentioned in the article. Feels like another sucker's bet manipulated by Wall Street again a-la Fed/GS. And these guys think they can hide it. The nerve.
On May 08 06:49 PM urbanhiker wrote:
> I have held OIL for 4 months, naively thinking it would appreciate
> along with the price of oil. Wrong! As the rollover occurs to the
> next month in a contango, you lose money even if the price of oil
> is increasing. The chart of this ETF bears me out.
Thank you for providing such great answers.
Whippet, could I read more in your personal SA blog on your recommendations for trading software and your data feed source and costs?? Trying to get started surfing these waves!
On May 08 02:35 PM Whippet wrote:
> Look at the LEAPS bull call spreads on liquid optionable securities
> for some interesting high risk/reward plays. I like Jan 2011 spreads
> on USO (35/45 costs 2.85 today and returns a max of 7.15 (250% profit)
> if USO climbs 35% in 17 months). You can tweak these to your level
> of bullishness. I've made a 100% return on a similar play opened
> 3 months ago already. You can also buy ATM or ITM LEAPS and sell
> near month, higher strike calls to pay for time decay and lower your
> basis. You obviously forsake dividends with this strategy and it
> doesn't work well on some tickers.
The new rules, forms and methods required for comparing houses affecting appraisors just adds more costs to the process. My spouse is now upping her fees in response and taking twice as long to perform the analysis.
I think the real risk here is not incomes but rather the price of oil. Gas and oil prices are not continuing to go down in the face of overwhelming supply because excess cash liquidity provided by the government has to land somewhere. And as UE continues to rise people will continue the downward spiral of spending less and driving less. Demand destruction at work should indicate shorting these puppies.
We can have both people!! I don't have any problems with the justification people use for inflation vs deflation. They are all right. The government can print money and quant ease and the Austrians will call that inflation (on money supply). Fine. The monetarists will point to velocity and real street prices and call deflation which is very true right now too (See www.ism.ws/about/Media...).
The opinion I want instead is when deflation will change to inflation. The indicators I think to watch are oil, housing, and bond prices and unemployment rates. Why? Well of course oil because its price ripples through everything we do in since all our food is shipped 100s of miles. Housing because housing requires lots of materials in bulk so a bottom on housing supply and price will be a major switch. And when the bond investors start to expect inflation they will switch out of bonds. Lastly, a jobs turnaround will prime the inflation pump. Until some combination of these things happens we get nothing but deflation.
With consistent large loss of jobs this is pointless. It's just basic demand coursing through the system. A Walgreens manager found he needed to restock masking tape and fruitloops. The level of economic activity brought on by the housing boom/bust is not going to come back quickly.
Brilliant piece on the geo political oil military industrial regimes. Thank you for entertaining smart minds everywhere. The long game has never been summarized so well before.
I agree completely that global warming be damned we need to drill. As for global warming I tend to believe 6 billion people are going to have an impact but its not as important as liberals make it out to be. How self agrandizing they are! But developing "local" oil only buys us time. It doesn't get to the end game which is... After consuming all the prehistoric biomass what next? Nuclear fer shur dude! Go Fitz!
But for the time being I think oil pretty much dominates my long investment ideas.
How could they have nothing to do with each other when all of the oil we will ever know about is contained within the earth??!!
The volume of earth is not a statistic, it is a fact.
And because oil has never been found deeper than 30000 feet means it never will be?? Thats just 5-6 miles out of 7000+ miles.
I never assumed oil bubbles up ala The Beverly Hillbilllies, I just want to point out that >90% of the contents within the volume of earth is not known to us humans... yet.
On Apr 28 03:02 PM enviro111 wrote:
> It is absolutely preposterous to use volume of Earth statistics and
> oil reserves in the same analysis. They have almost nothing to do
> with each other. For starter's oil has never been found deeper than
> 30,000 feet in the Earth. It is almost always found in sedimentary
> rocks, and was created as a result of a previous severe global warming
> episode on the Earth about 75 million years ago. It does not 'bubble
> up' from the core of the Earth.
Interesting how nobody tackled the "disruptive technology" i.e. the steam engine and computer. U.S. industrial labor rates are being disrupted (in long term decline) because huge supply in China and India can now be leveraged due to computers and instantaneous communication via trans oceanic fiber. This should continue until our labor rates come into balance with theirs through many means such as more onerous government regulations like OSHA, EPA, etc.
Also, nobody seemed to disagree with the math which I will even bump the range up to to 0.2% (1.3 billion km3 + 600billion km3 divided by at least 1T km3). Thats not 10-20% thats one tenth or 2 tenths of a percent of earth's volume of water and known oil. Everyone just assumes peak oil without allowing for any margin due to 99.9% or 99.8% of the volume left unexplored?
"It's not helpful to compare the volume known of oil reserves to the volume of the earth. The "enough to fill a stadium" argument (so to speak) doesn't provide any useful comparison"
I'm not familiar with the "enough to fill a stadium" theory so why is this not a useful comparison?
Thank you for the correrction to cubic from square.
For all the doubters such as "entire surface area of the continental U.S. because it has already been scoured. There is nothing left to find. The same could be said for Europe and certain other small and/or developed countries."
The entire surface area may be close to being explored but again, the correction from square to cubic is orders of magnitude difference.
Then there is this...
seekingalpha.com/artic...
"InterOil (IOC) is a Canadian integrated (exploration assets, refinery, near distribution monopoly) located in Papua New Guinea [PNG]. After having struck two earlier profusely flowing natural gas and liquids wells (flowing at 102 and 105MMcf/d respectively), they hit an absolute killer with Antelope1, which flowed at a whopping 382MMcf/d."
So that was the last big reserve we will ever find!?