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Chris Vermeulen
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Chris Vermeulen the founder of AlgoTrades.net Algorithmic Trading Systems. This automated investing system is designed for individual investors and traders. He is also the editor of the TheGoldAndOilGuy newsletter which is designed for gold market traders providing quality ETF Trade Alerts,... More
My company:
AlgoTrades Algorithmic Trading Systems
My blog:
TheGoldAndOilGuy - Gold Market Traders
My book:
Technical Trading Mastery - 7 Steps To Win With Logic
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  • Prognosticators Who Cried Wolf About Dollar & Global Economic Collapse

    Over the years, hundreds of various self-proclaimed prognosticators who said a global economic collapse were to happen on this date or that date have failed. Sort of like the old story about the shepherd who cried wolf.

    Unfortunately this is EXACTLY what looks to be getting ready to happen. But first let me mention that the most accurate doomsday/sky is falling talking heads out there who have predicted several life changing events correctly in the past always seem to be 3-5 years early.

    Why are these people always a few years early in predicting these events?

    I believe it is because they focus almost strictly on fundamentals and economic data and ignore price analysis of various assets which could help in timing these events. There is no doubt in my mind they are correct about the fundamentals being out of whack and unsustainable, but I know from trading that fundamental data can lead or lag the actual markets themselves by several years.

    the global collapse of 2015In 2011 and 2012 several global economic collapse scenarios started to float around the market place. Now 4-5 year later we have yet to have a global collapse. But, what is interesting is the fact that many of the things they said would start to happen HAVE started happening in the past few months.

    What scares me the most is the fact that the US bond bubble may burst, the USA will not be able to service their debt, the dollar will collapse in value, and a new currency will emerge.

    If this happens everyone will experience some rough times for a while. Keep in mind that most of the US dollars are held outside the United States. The dollar is global and will send a shockwave into several countries financial systems.

    Secret New Global Economic Treaty

    Barack Obama has been working secretly on a new treaty and potentially new world currency. Only members of Congress are allowed to look at the treaty and they are being banned from saying anything to the public.

    Americans could lose most of their wealth overnight and thanks to all of this secrecy they won't even see it coming. There is the potential for a massive devaluation in the dollar which could happen literally overnight. This means Americans (individuals holding primarily US Dollars) will wake up one morning with a fraction of the wealth they had 24 hours ago. Its scary stuff to say the least.

    This new treaty is the "Trans-Pacific Partnership", and is being touted as perhaps the most important trade agreement in history. Very few people in this country are talking about it.

    Currently, there are 12 countries in negotiations: the United States, Canada, Australia, Brunei, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore and Vietnam. These countries have a total population of 790 million people which accounts for an astounding 40 percent of the global economy. If the EU, China, and India join then this treaty will likely pass.

    Join TheGoldAndOilGuy Trading Newsletter today and be prepared and profit from uncertain times!

    Protect And Grow Your Money With Me: www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com

    Chris Vermeulen

    Tags: GLD, SLV, GDX, GDXJ, SIL, NUGT
    May 13 10:58 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Investor Focused Market Analysis

    The SP500 index (US Stock Market) continues to be in and Uptrend.

    The major trend line on the chart below must be broken in a big way before a full blown bear market will be confirmed. This is still months away at best so do not worry. The AlgoTrades INNER-Market Analysis will get us positioned when the time is right and enable us to profit as the stock market falls in value.

    Your long term equity investments can continue to be held at this point. Speculative and momentum stocks (Russell 2K index) continue to show weakness, so I would stay away from them. Large cap stocks will likely be in favor as the safe haven "blue chip" stocks, but when the market is ready to roll over, all stocks will fall. The safe haven plays should be bonds, gold, and inverse ETF funds.

    We do fear a US dollar currency crisis, and if so investors will be moving away from US investments and the massive bond bubble may burst. But at this time, it is not a concern.

    (click to enlarge)

    This chart I feel provides a great perspective on the overall market trend and price patterns. This is the 70 year prospective. I hope something like this unfolds. Fingers crossed to a 12 month correction/bear market. This will build the new base for the next super cycle.

    US Dollar has now reached the upper resistance trend line… we could see weakness in the dollar going forward…

    (click to enlarge)

    The Risk-Off Trade Is Slowly Unfolding

    The S&P 500 index is losing its momentum. Money has been rotating into Bonds and global markets for a year in anticipation of the stock market correcting.

    With six months of the SP500 index trading sideways we have had to focus on some other areas to find opportunities. Some recent winners have been long oil with UCO, long live cattle with COW, long Russia via RSX, and long Japan with EWJ. Those who follow my ETF trade alerts newsletter have avoided the recent chatter in the SP500. We have be doing even better with our active stock trades.

    (click to enlarge)

    The Fear Index & Big Trend Analysis

    The VIX index has been trading at low levels for a few years. This suggests that fear is low, complacency is high, and that SP500 is becoming vulnerable to a stock market correction.

    In the chart below, I have placed the VIX index above the stocks trading above the 200 day moving average. As the number of stocks trading above the 200 day moving average falls it's telling us that fewer stocks are moving up in value while the broad market climbs. This is bearish.

    This provides a great visual of how falling markets correlate with investor fears. While overall market breadth remains strong, a change in the VIX often provides an early warning sign of potential danger.

    "When The VIX Is Low Its Time to Go, When The VIX Is High Its Time To Buy"

    (click to enlarge)

    Stock Market Rises with Fewer Stocks - RED FLAG

    Since mid 2014 the US stock market has become move volatile. Fewer stocks participating in the markets move up. This can be seen by comparing the percent of stocks trading above their 200 day moving average and the S&P 500 index.

    When a stock market stalls, which is what it appears to be doing, the movement is comparable to that of how an aircraft stalls. It slowly continues to rise, things become choppy/unstable, then it drops and picks up speed trying to regain stability and control.

    Once the stock market or an aircraft come to a complete stall they both end with a violent drop. While I am not calling a top yet, understand each month we are getting closer.

    An analyst and trader I respect talked about how the Dow Jones is flat for the the year, yet investors think big profits are bing made. But in reality we have not seen real gains and the broad market expand in months. More investors are bullish now than we have almost ever seen according to Investors Intelligence Survey with a whopping 57% of investors bullish on stocks.

    The CEO of Ameritrade said that almost all of their 6 million traders/investor account are completely invested in stocks, and are leveraged using margin also. This is the ultimate contrarian warning sign of a bear market should begin over the next few months.

    (click to enlarge)

    INNER-Investor Monthly Conclusion:

    The great thing about being an investor is that the analysis and trends move relatively slow. We do not buy at the dead low, nor do we exit at the high, and sometimes we get shaken up during tough phases in the market like the second half of 2014 and first half of 2015.

    I'll be honest, the second half of 2014 and first portion of 2015 has been exceptionally tough to generate profits.

    Winning streaks, and losing streaks are just part of investing and it happens to everyone and every strategy as the market has difference market phases and characteristics.

    I believe the second half 2015 is will provide great opportunities and we will close the year out with decent gains.

    Chris Vermeulen

    www.GoldAndOilGuy.com

    Tags: SPY, DIA, GLD
    May 07 12:07 PM | Link | Comment!
  • In Three To Five Years Gold Will Be Priceless

    Over the next few years as debt, currencies and countries start to fall apart individuals will be looking to place their money where it will hold its value and buying power during times of extreme uncertainty.

    If you eliminate fiat currencies which are created out of this air and are nothing more than a credit we are left with precious metals and stones. As much as we have evolved over time, we could be valuing things like gold, silver, platinum, and precious stones more so than our currency.

    Let's face it, currencies are swinging in value 20-50% regularly and while most people do not realize it their buying power often is not as strong as it was. Would you rather hold a large portion of your capital in say the EURO which is falling like a rock in value costing you thousands of dollars a month, or would gold and silver which rises in value as your currency falls be a smarter decision?

    Do not get me wrong, I am not trying to be a doom and gloom analyst. And I hope to be wrong, but with so many things pointing to an extreme global change it only makes sense to add some protection in the event something drastic does happen. My new book explains how to protect your capital in detail.

    With the average fiat reserve currency since 1400 lasting between 80-105 years. With the dollar becoming the reserve currency in 1920 the odds point to the dollar being dropped within 3-5 years.

    (click to enlarge)

    Gold Price Chart & Long Term Bullish Patterns

    gold-halfway

    Review Of the 1970-80's Gold & Bubble

    The chart below shows the price of gold, silver, the typical price bubble, and phased of the market which happens in all asset types at some point in their life cycle.

    The red line shows the average market participants emotional state. Yellow line is the price of gold, and the grey line in silver.

    1980bubbleSource: SRS RoccoReport & GoldChartsrus.com

    Current Gold & Silver Bubble - Priceless

    The last bull market in precious metals will be dwarfed by the next one which I expect to start later this year. Over the next 3-5 years currencies, metals, stock market, new policies in the USA, etc… are likely to change more than we ever thought possible.

    2015-we-r-here

    Source: SRS RoccoReport & GoldChartsrus.com

    Priceless Gold Conclusion:

    What does all this mean? It means money is going to move out of dying currencies and into physical assets like gold, and silver.

    There are three different forecasting models for gold I have created. Depending how things play out in the next couple years the low target is $5,000 oz, and highest is $12,000 oz.

    Starting to accumulate physical gold and silver as a long term investment and as insurance for your portfolio is critical. Small denominations are best because when prices sky rocket it will be tough to sell/trade a $12,000 oz gold bar compared to a gram of gold that will be worth $450, or better yet an ounce of silver worth $150.

    With that said my key focus is on trading for income and growth through the use of exchange traded funds. And if precious metals are about to start another bull market there will be big gains in gold stocks which I will be trading.

    Learn to trade, and get my trades live: www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com

    Chris Vermeulen

    Tags: GLD, NUGT, DGP, SLV, DUST
    Apr 22 3:52 PM | Link | Comment!
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