Looking at Education: Tooling and Retooling as Unemployment Remains High [View article]
Tbuck - I didn't recommend any one particular company but rather discussed the drivers as to why the education market is one that should have good growth prospects. Before picking any one of those stocks, I would have to roll up my sleeves and get more granular so as to understand which are best positioned on a reward to risk basis.
When I narrow it down, I'll be sure to come back and let you and others know.
Digesting Last Week's Jobs Report; Inflation, Manufacturing and Earnings This Week [View article]
Relying solely on the BLS numbers can be tricky if not dangerous. Forbes had an interesting analysis out in the new issue that shows if labor force participation were the same as 2-3 years ago the unemployment rate would be more like 11.2%. I digress, but that is why I like to use 2-3+ sources of data to triangulate rather than rely on a single data point. After all, you can't draw a straight line with less than 2 points.
The Aging Population: A Growth Market Worth Examining [View article]
Cdivia:
FYI...
The share of the population under age 18 dropped in 95% of U.S. counties since 2000, according to a USA TODAY analysis of the 2010 Census.
The number of households that have children under age 18 has stayed at 38 million since 2000, despite a 9.7% growth in the U.S. population. As a result, the share of households with children dropped from 36% in 2000 to 33.5%.
The Aging Population: A Growth Market Worth Examining [View article]
Benny,
There is a huge fear of boomers not having enough money hence the mention of SCHW and others from an investor perspective. But that does beg the question as to whether or not they have disposable income to save.
Be it with the retiring boomers or those younger, one of my concerns is job growth but really what kind of jobs are being created these days. A meaningful percentage of the domestic population is not going to go very far by working at food chains, movie theaters and the like.
Favoring Cree Over Veco: A Look at Replacement Demand/Technology [View article]
Well you are certainly entitled to your opinion, but if you read what I actually wrote I said that CREE is my preferred play on LEDs.
Keep in mind that in anticipation of what you mentioned that there is more likely than not an excessive build up in capacity as more than 70 players try to capitalize on that. Veeco and Aixtron have benefited from that capacity ramp but based on Veeco financials (see their earnings announcements over the last few quarters) the company's LED & Solar backlog and bookings have dipped.
I consider Aixtron and Veeco very much like Applied Materials - cyclical growth companies - are the long term trends for LEDs and semi chips favorable?
Absolutely.
Does LED and semiconductor industry capacity go through peaks and valleys from time to time?
Yes, which is what gives these companies their cyclical nature.
Remember that one does not simply flip a switch and "boom" your making LEDs. Rather there is a ramp time for each tool, which can vary particularly if a company is converting from smaller wafers to larger ones. That conversion also means far greater usable surface area that over time should result in far more LEDs per wafer than in the past. So not only is industry capacity up because of more installed machines but also because of the wafer conversion.
The question I would pose to you Robtgmorgan is this - is it a good time to be buying a stock that has hit its 52 week high while its backlog levels have fallen over the last few quarters and its book to bill has been below 1 for the last 2 quarters?
That doesn't mean there won't be a time to get bullish on the LED tool companies, rather it's a question of how long and when LED industry capacity gets tight again. This is very similar to what happened in 2000-2002 when RF semiconductor demand was hyped, MOCVD demand spiked and then plummeted as the industry had to absorb the excess MOCVD capacity. Eventually that capacity was absorbed and companies like Kopin Corp., RF Micro Devices and others that serve that market resumed adding capacity.
Motorola Mobility Gears for Smartphone Battle [View article]
From American Banking News yesterday:
Oppenheimer analysts cut their price target on shares of Motorola Mobility from $32.00 to $28.00. They now have an “outperform” rating on the stock.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. analysts raised their price target on shares of Motorola Mobility from $20.00 to $21.00. They now have an “underweight” rating on the stock.
Deutsche Bank analysts cut their price target on shares of Motorola Mobility from $30.00 to $25.00. They now have a “hold” rating on the stock.
Jefferies analysts cut their price target on shares of Motorola Mobility from $28.00 to $26.00. They now have a “hold” rating on the stock.
Motorola Mobility Gears for Smartphone Battle [View article]
You did see that RIMM's guidance as well as the fact that MMI delivered an operating loss for Mobile Devicesin 1Q2011 but also expects break even operating results in the current quarter and EPS that is wide to the downside compared to what the Street was expecting. Nice results by HTC and new products from a slew of vendors in the coming weeks will make for a challenging pricing environment. No wonder Deutsche Bank and others cut their price targets - but then again perhaps you like to pay high teens multiples on companies that don't generate operating earnings. While that might be an investment strategy you subscribe too, that is not for everyone.
Cash flow positive in 1Q. Is $107 million in net cash generation from operations on $3 billion in revenues significant? Given the seasonally strong December quarter, one who follows the industry would expect strong cash flows in the March quarter. What are your expectations for cash flows as we move through the year as inventory builds occur the industry ships more handsets quarter over quarter throughout the year?
As far as your claim for a gain in the stock, when did you buy and how much of a position did you lay out at the time?
Do you think Friday's pop in the stock was fundamental in nature or to the short covering that went on? Perhaps you missed the rise in the number of shares short from mid-March to mid-April. It would not be wise to confuse what is going on in the industry on a structural and competitive basis vs. a short term pop in the stock due to trading dynamics.
Motorola Mobility Gears for Smartphone Battle [View article]
I would look at the RIMM forecast revision from last night (both the numbers as well as the reasons behind it), the lack of operating profits in the first half of 2011 at MMI and connect the dots....
Industry Consolidation: AT&T / T-Mobile and Its Implications [View article]
Sgavin-
I am sure you have seen this but ...
"Sprint (S) has signed new deals with three major Washington, DC lobbying firms as the telecom company seeks to derail a $39 billion merger between AT&T (T) and Deutsche Telekom’s (DTEGY) T-Mobile, according to Politico.
Sprint has picked up help from Thorsen French Advocacy, Franklin Square Group and The Fritts Group, the company confirmed to the paper on Sunday, and is in talks with veteran telecom lawyers at Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom.The firms all have strong connections to Capitol Hill and know the key federal leaders who will determine if and under what conditions AT&T can acquire T-Mobile. If the merger goes through, it would turn AT&T into the nation’s largest wireless provider."
Cyber Security: A Growing Problem... and Investing Opportunity [View article]
Looking at Education: Tooling and Retooling as Unemployment Remains High [View article]
When I narrow it down, I'll be sure to come back and let you and others know.
CV
Digesting Last Week's Jobs Report; Inflation, Manufacturing and Earnings This Week [View article]
The Aging Population: A Growth Market Worth Examining [View article]
Research In Motion: It's All in the Outlook [View article]
The Aging Population: A Growth Market Worth Examining [View article]
FYI...
The share of the population under age 18 dropped in 95% of U.S. counties since 2000, according to a USA TODAY analysis of the 2010 Census.
The number of households that have children under age 18 has stayed at 38 million since 2000, despite a 9.7% growth in the U.S. population. As a result, the share of households with children dropped from 36% in 2000 to 33.5%.
More data is found in the article the above is from - www.usatoday.com/news/...
The Aging Population: A Growth Market Worth Examining [View article]
There is a huge fear of boomers not having enough money hence the mention of SCHW and others from an investor perspective. But that does beg the question as to whether or not they have disposable income to save.
Be it with the retiring boomers or those younger, one of my concerns is job growth but really what kind of jobs are being created these days. A meaningful percentage of the domestic population is not going to go very far by working at food chains, movie theaters and the like.
The Aging Population: A Growth Market Worth Examining [View article]
Per the AOA - 10,000 boomers per day turn 65 for the next 19 years...10,000*365*19
Philip Morris International Dividend Stock Analysis [View article]
Favoring Cree Over Veco: A Look at Replacement Demand/Technology [View article]
Keep in mind that in anticipation of what you mentioned that there is more likely than not an excessive build up in capacity as more than 70 players try to capitalize on that. Veeco and Aixtron have benefited from that capacity ramp but based on Veeco financials (see their earnings announcements over the last few quarters) the company's LED & Solar backlog and bookings have dipped.
I consider Aixtron and Veeco very much like Applied Materials - cyclical growth companies - are the long term trends for LEDs and semi chips favorable?
Absolutely.
Does LED and semiconductor industry capacity go through peaks and valleys from time to time?
Yes, which is what gives these companies their cyclical nature.
Remember that one does not simply flip a switch and "boom" your making LEDs. Rather there is a ramp time for each tool, which can vary particularly if a company is converting from smaller wafers to larger ones. That conversion also means far greater usable surface area that over time should result in far more LEDs per wafer than in the past. So not only is industry capacity up because of more installed machines but also because of the wafer conversion.
The question I would pose to you Robtgmorgan is this - is it a good time to be buying a stock that has hit its 52 week high while its backlog levels have fallen over the last few quarters and its book to bill has been below 1 for the last 2 quarters?
That doesn't mean there won't be a time to get bullish on the LED tool companies, rather it's a question of how long and when LED industry capacity gets tight again. This is very similar to what happened in 2000-2002 when RF semiconductor demand was hyped, MOCVD demand spiked and then plummeted as the industry had to absorb the excess MOCVD capacity. Eventually that capacity was absorbed and companies like Kopin Corp., RF Micro Devices and others that serve that market resumed adding capacity.
given the pending capacity glut
Motorola Mobility Gears for Smartphone Battle [View article]
Oppenheimer analysts cut their price target on shares of Motorola Mobility from $32.00 to $28.00. They now have an “outperform” rating on the stock.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. analysts raised their price target on shares of Motorola Mobility from $20.00 to $21.00. They now have an “underweight” rating on the stock.
Deutsche Bank analysts cut their price target on shares of Motorola Mobility from $30.00 to $25.00. They now have a “hold” rating on the stock.
Jefferies analysts cut their price target on shares of Motorola Mobility from $28.00 to $26.00. They now have a “hold” rating on the stock.
Motorola Mobility Gears for Smartphone Battle [View article]
Cash flow positive in 1Q. Is $107 million in net cash generation from operations on $3 billion in revenues significant? Given the seasonally strong December quarter, one who follows the industry would expect strong cash flows in the March quarter. What are your expectations for cash flows as we move through the year as inventory builds occur the industry ships more handsets quarter over quarter throughout the year?
As far as your claim for a gain in the stock, when did you buy and how much of a position did you lay out at the time?
Do you think Friday's pop in the stock was fundamental in nature or to the short covering that went on? Perhaps you missed the rise in the number of shares short from mid-March to mid-April. It would not be wise to confuse what is going on in the industry on a structural and competitive basis vs. a short term pop in the stock due to trading dynamics.
Motorola Mobility Gears for Smartphone Battle [View article]
Industry Consolidation: AT&T / T-Mobile and Its Implications [View article]
I am sure you have seen this but ...
"Sprint (S) has signed new deals with three major Washington, DC lobbying firms as the telecom company seeks to derail a $39 billion merger between AT&T (T) and Deutsche Telekom’s (DTEGY) T-Mobile, according to Politico.
Sprint has picked up help from Thorsen French Advocacy, Franklin Square Group and The Fritts Group, the company confirmed to the paper on Sunday, and is in talks with veteran telecom lawyers at Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom.The firms all have strong connections to Capitol Hill and know the key federal leaders who will determine if and under what conditions AT&T can acquire T-Mobile. If the merger goes through, it would turn AT&T into the nation’s largest wireless provider."
If not, here's the source for that:
wallstreetpit.com/7159...
Industry Consolidation: AT&T / T-Mobile and Its Implications [View article]