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Chris Weale

 
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  • Biotech Is Not A Popping Bubble: Buy The Dip While You Can [View article]
    I like the analogy and agree with your sentiment. GILD is the cheapest in terms of forward P/E and is probably my favorite among the big bios. I like it but don't hold it because my risk tolerance is high enough for mostly micro and small caps!
    Apr 21, 2014. 03:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Biotech Is Not A Popping Bubble: Buy The Dip While You Can [View article]
    Yes you did and I would agree. The timing was just right for all of these forces to gang up on bios, but purely a sentiment shift that I don't expect to last much longer!
    Apr 21, 2014. 03:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Biotech Is Not A Popping Bubble: Buy The Dip While You Can [View article]
    The decline was certainly sparked by the GILD news but it wasn't necessarily the cause. Bios needed an excuse to sell-off and that was the best one the market could come up with! Thanks for the comment.
    Apr 21, 2014. 03:03 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • OXiGENE's Oncology Drugs Have Run Their Course [View article]
    What's your take on the recent Zybrestat - Avastin trial results?
    Mar 11, 2014. 07:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ImmunoCellular: Is Approval Enough? [View article]
    That's a good question and I don't think I know the answer. I would be inclined to include the 5M shares as insider ownership unless I had reason to believe the options would be sold instead of exercised and held.

    If there's a common convention for dealing with that I don't know of it. I'll have to research for a bit and see if I can come up with something. Thanks for bringing this up.
    Mar 9, 2014. 07:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ImmunoCellular: Is Approval Enough? [View article]
    You're right about Yahoo inside info being inaccurate. I'm not sure how they make they're calculations but the #'s are always different than primary sources like SEC filings & Nasdaq or 3rd party services like FactSet & Bloomberg. But since my initial research usually starts at Yahoo that's where I initially see it. As long as they are close, which I find they usually are, I can trust the number as an approximation.

    10% seems reasonable for speculative biotech for sure. Obviously I'd like to see Joseph Kim style Innovio type ownership but not all execs should have to risk they're entire fortune on results of a few drug trials!
    Mar 9, 2014. 03:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ImmunoCellular: Is Approval Enough? [View article]
    Just Yahoo finance. And 10% is a nice arbitrary threshold I suppose. Anything under 5% is pretty discouraging to me even for a speculative biotech.
    Mar 7, 2014. 11:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Biggest Myth About Quantitative Easing [View article]
    It might create some short term support but in reality it's just an alternative way to distribute cash to shareholders than a dividend. The stock price gains are more likely to come from the "signal effects" than from the artificial demand from the company's open market purchases.

    And Carlos, when cash is spent on a company's own shares it reduces both assets & equity book values. EPS will go up from the buyback only because there are less shares outstanding so the same earnings are distributed among less shares.
    Mar 7, 2014. 11:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Biggest Myth About Quantitative Easing [View article]
    Buybacks don't actually raise the price of a company's stock because the p/e is adjusted downward to reflect the decrease in cash. Also, when you say "supply of outstanding assets" do you mean supply of liquidity?
    Mar 6, 2014. 10:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ImmunoCellular: Is Approval Enough? [View article]
    I thought this was an excellent article, not sure why the comments are are crying bias. A solid pipeline, plenty of cash, low burn rate, and a reasonable valuation.

    But I wonder why the inside ownership is so low. Maybe compared to the many other competitors in immunotherapy the IMUC technology isn't all that impressive?

    Is there likely to be anything material discussed at the ROTH or at earnings release? Perhaps there will be speculative buying between now and then?
    Mar 5, 2014. 01:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dumb Investment Of The Week: Tesla Motors Stock [View article]
    You're assuming a pretax margin of 4.3% and a justified p/e of 13.5 and you see no problems with that?
    Mar 4, 2014. 11:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Microvision's Pico Projector Technology Has Some Big Disadvantages Compared To The Competition [View article]
    Shorting a company like this is a great way to blow up your trading account
    Mar 3, 2014. 01:29 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Valuation: Thoughts On Price And Value [View article]
    A conservative DCF seems like a logical way to find a floor value, but since when did the market care about logic? A better method might be to predict what valuations might be given to AAPL under a range of possible scenarios (Monte Carlo anybody?) and apply that to your forecasted metric(s).

    I'm still interested in the company but the stock at this point has little appeal. In the 430's i might consider it as a good short term investment with a reasonable dividend yield, but I'm not chasing the opportunity to enter any time soon.
    Feb 26, 2014. 11:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amarin Is Likely Now A Vortex Where Your Money Will Go To Die [View article]
    I think a small positive surprise at the earnings CC tomorrow could make this a nice trade. I know very little about the company or its projects so my DD is weak, but the price behaviour suggests a small amount of good news could move the price pretty quickly. Long March 22 $2 calls
    Feb 26, 2014. 04:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Assessing The Bullish Case For Genco Shipping & Trading [View article]
    Thanks for the analysis. So if the operating business has value but the company can't survive because of debt, that makes restructuring a far more likely outcome than liquidation or excessive asset sales, no?. Like Tokyo Picker and salvatort both mentioned I would also assume some sort of dilutive deal to common shareholders in order to restructure the debt. It seems the nature of these agreements will determine the market value of the common shares. Should be very interesting to watch and I might start to build a small position if it keeps dropping.
    Feb 26, 2014. 01:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
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