Seeking Alpha

Chris Weale  

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  • Apple's Valuation: Thoughts On Price And Value [View article]
    A conservative DCF seems like a logical way to find a floor value, but since when did the market care about logic? A better method might be to predict what valuations might be given to AAPL under a range of possible scenarios (Monte Carlo anybody?) and apply that to your forecasted metric(s).

    I'm still interested in the company but the stock at this point has little appeal. In the 430's i might consider it as a good short term investment with a reasonable dividend yield, but I'm not chasing the opportunity to enter any time soon.
    Feb 26, 2014. 11:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Magic Is Broken [View article]
    The best part of the article is the conclusion where you advise against a short position. I wouldn't short the most profitable company in the world either when it's trading at a p/e of ~10 and a PEG of ~0.5.

    AAPLs down-trend ended in very early May, and the reverse head & shoulders pattern held support at 420. This stock isn't going any lower than 420 again unless a major catalyst comes out of nowhere. And seeing how everything mentioned in this article has already been priced into the stock, I see the a positive catalyst much more likely than a negative one.
    May 19, 2013. 05:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Danger Zone For This Week: Apple [View article]

    Can you briefly explain what you mean by 'large arrows' and 'false clicks'? Thanks in advance.

    May 16, 2013. 12:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Danger Zone For This Week: Apple [View article]
    AAPL is forming a reverse head & shoulders right now, RSI broke through resistance in late March, and the upper trend-line on the downtrend was breached in early May. My technicals are telling me AAPL is a buy at $420 with a price target of $515.
    May 15, 2013. 04:12 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Danger Zone For This Week: Apple [View article]
    Most of the $140B "cash" is actually held in financial securities. Mostly stocks and corporate debt, but also federal/municipal debt and MMF's. Should be earning at least 5% on that annually.

    pg. 54 shows what I am talking about.

    May 15, 2013. 04:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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