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Christian Treitler  

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  • Greece: How Both Sides Are Right And Wrong [View article]
    Governance is not only a problem in Europe but it seems to be a global problem. Japan is another great example for the failures of governance. Only two of Abenomics' three arrows are working. The government has not been able to implement real structural reform because vested interests are fighting it. And yet, it is structural reform that will yield long term benefits.
    Jul 9, 2015. 12:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Born On The Fifth Of July [View article]
    Bond markets give us indeed great signals but we should not forget that the ECB is very active in the markets these days. Further, the currency market gives us also good signals without overt or direct ECB involvement right now.
    Jul 9, 2015. 12:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bond Market Tells The Fed What To Do, Not Vice-Versa [View article]
    Since the Great Recession investors have relied on central banks for cues about the markets, because central banks have become active players in financial markets. This in turn has lead to a belief in the omnipotence of central banks who are very aware of this role they are playing currently. Things will get really dicey, when the market realizes market forces are indeed outside of central banks’ controls.
    Apr 2, 2015. 11:17 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Does The Bond Market Rally Still Have Legs? [View article]
    We can also look at the data in Japan where the 10-year JGB has fluctuated between 0.5% and 2% since 1998. The yield rallied to 2% twice (from well below 1%) since 1998 leading to losses for bond investors during. But since 2006 the yields in JGBs have gone down precipitously to today's record lows. All this with ever increasing public debt. Who says something like this cannot happen in the US?
    Jan 12, 2015. 10:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Confidence Game [View article]
    If there is indeed a causal relationship between politics and the stock market, let's hope that political gridlock stays with us! It has coincided with a tremendous rally in US stocks.
    Nov 7, 2014. 01:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BOJ Marks The Beginning Of The End For Central Banks [View article]
    The macro-economic problem may not just lie in "anti-capitalist populist politics" (although they certainly do not help) but rather in the fact that the "regular guy on main street" is financially too weak to have a meaningful impact on the economy via consumption. When corporate profits take a record high share of GDP and when labor takes a record low share of GDP, I wonder whether it makes sense to lower the corporate tax rate and freeze the minimum wage. Both policies would most likely lead to even starker records. How is more of the same going to help this time?
    Nov 6, 2014. 06:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fallacy Of Central Bank Stimulus [View article]
    What? QE is not the panacea of all economic ills?

    This article reminds me of the commentaries on the weak US bond market last year that was forecast to keep dropping. Alas, the benign inflation outlook makes even low interest rates look attractive. Bonds try to follow inflation (and creditworthiness) in the long run just like stocks try to follow earnings in the long run. Other buying or selling motivations are just the flavors of the day, and that includes QE.

    But while the game lasts, it is worthwhile to play along, isn't it? The only diffulty is figuiring out when the game is stopping.
    Sep 4, 2014. 11:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Stocks And Bonds Can Both Rally On Nothing [View article]
    Great article. I already look forward to your article "How stocks and bonds can both fall apart on nothing (or something)".
    May 29, 2014. 03:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • To Trade A Volatility ETP Or Not To Trade A Volatility ETP? [View article]
    Thanks for your comment.
    Mar 2, 2014. 05:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • To Trade A Volatility ETP Or Not To Trade A Volatility ETP? [View article]
    Rather than looking into shorting the VXX, you might want to think about buying SVXY. It replicates the inverse of the VIX index's daily returns.
    Mar 2, 2014. 05:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • To Trade A Volatility ETP Or Not To Trade A Volatility ETP? [View article]
    I have not looked into the historic data of VIXY or UVXY, but it seems like VIXY behaves similar to the VXX. UVXY aims to replicate twice the daily returns of the S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures index, which should give it twice the daily return of VXX. For the time being I hold the same opinion about VIXY and UVXY as I do for VXX and VXZ, but I have not analyzed the data in detail yet.

    SVXY is the inverse of VXX, and thus a different kind of ETP.
    Mar 2, 2014. 05:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ignore The Low Employment Ratio [View article]
    The chart shows indeed very clearly that we are back at an employment level that prevailed until it took off in the early 80s. During the 80s globalization really took hold. (Remember the Plaza Accord?) Workers also realized that their wages had not (and still have not really) kept up with inflation and the traditional family with mom staying home was no longer an option for most. It became clear that a household needed two income earners. Going full circle we can now raise the question how the lower employment ratio affects households in 2013 and goinhg forward? How will households make ends meet?
    Jan 21, 2014. 08:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ignore The Low Employment Ratio [View article]
    Phenix, I don't think that you and I disagree on the point you raise here. I acknowledged as much when I said, "This is not good news for people who have left the labor force and given up on looking for work". An underlying message of my article is that there is lots of noise in economic and market data. Investors who aspire to make rational investment decision should ignore that noise. The employment ratio is one such data point that does not seem to give good signals by itself. And this is not to say either that it does not prove itself useful if it is used in conjunction with other data.
    Jan 20, 2014. 08:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ignore The Low Employment Ratio [View article]
    In my article I am observing an historic relationship that shows that the labor participation rate turns around months after the economy turns around and that it turns down before a recession is officially declared. Another observation is that the stock market has not cared about the low rate ever since the rate stabilized after the Great Recession ended.
    Jan 18, 2014. 08:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ignore The Low Employment Ratio [View article]
    "How you one can build an investment decision based on this?" - You are right in suggesting that you can't build an investment decision based on this one indicator. But there is not one indicator out there that allows you to build an investment decision. Instead, the sum of many indicators lead an investor to a decsion.
    Jan 18, 2014. 08:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment