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Christopher Bayliss

 
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  • Deere & Co: A Cyclical Company [View article]
    Bluepac,

    No skin in the game personally but I was at one point contemplating a position in DE. I too saw the little FCF generated and that was a big warning sign. But this is the first well put together short argument on DE I have seen. Don't think I'll be investing now.

    Just curious, what was your thought process for 16x as a mid cycle multiple?
    Sep 15 06:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Layne Christensen: Why We Think The Bottom Is In With Strong Risk-Reward Going Forward [View article]
    Very interesting and well thought out article. I was bearish on the company some time ago but the decline was more than I had anticipated. The SOTP story makes a lot of sense, and margins should improve over time: construction management industry is cyclical. I would need to look into capex spend a bit but I'm intrigued by this.
    Sep 9 10:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Willdan Group: Top Line Growth And Margin Expansion Supports Recent Run-Up [View article]
    Thank you. Its been nice to see a regression to the mean of margins. However, I don't think anyone could have totally seen the blowout in top line numbers.
    Aug 11 12:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Willdan Group: Top Line Growth And Margin Expansion Supports Recent Run-Up [View article]
    They can benefit from the solar trend. However, the companies you mentioned are much larger scale than WLDN. WLDN helps install and design small solar efficient products for municipalities and is not installing solar grids like the others.
    Aug 11 12:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Leucadia Poised To Continue Strong Long-Term Returns [View article]
    Saw that. Another positive development. Although stock has declined since I wrote the article, book value has actually increased. However, it has done so in a very incremental way, and not with a big splash acquisition or sale. Patience will reward in the case of LUK.
    Jul 31 05:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • USA Truck: Market Giving Little Credit To Potential Turnaround And Hard Asset Value [View article]
    No idea Barinder. Your guess is as good as mine.
    Jun 29 11:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • USA Truck: Market Giving Little Credit To Potential Turnaround And Hard Asset Value [View article]
    Thank you. Appreciate your initial piece spurring me to look into the company.
    Jun 18 11:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GNC: Continued Top And Bottom Line Strength [View article]
    Yes. Please see a recent article of mine. If you have further questions, please let me know.

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Jun 12 12:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GNC: A 'Strong' Pick, But A Few Concerns [View article]
    I like both businesses because they're dominant players in industries with tailwinds and generate FCF. The ability to generate FCF is somewhat hidden in both. ESRX b/c of D&A, and GNC b/c it is still growing and pursuing growth CAPEX.
    Jun 5 02:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • GNC: A 'Strong' Pick, But A Few Concerns [View article]
    Sounds like we're on the same page. Rent expense while not trivial, is not exorbitant. If they're able to increase prices anywhere close to where they have in the past, they should experience positive operating leverage.

    Good to know about Sprouts and their SKUs. I do think e-commerce is the more pressing concern because e-commerce has a differentiated business model and is much more likely to start a price war. A price war would be much more damaging to GNC than losing market share.
    Jun 5 01:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • GNC: A 'Strong' Pick, But A Few Concerns [View article]
    Where are you getting $1.1B of operating leases? On page 103 of their recent 10-K, they say they spent $216MM on total retail stores rent expense.

    Why do you believe that natural grocers are a direct threat to GNC?
    Jun 5 11:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Leucadia Poised To Continue Strong Long-Term Returns [View article]
    Agreed. With Leucadia, patience is the name of the game.
    Jun 4 02:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GNC: Overly Discounted GARP Investment [View article]
    As an aside, a correction to the article was submitted, as this article was co-authored with Jack Schrager, another alumnus of the Duke Investment Club.
    Jun 4 01:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GNC: Overly Discounted GARP Investment [View article]
    In today's frothy markets for startups/young companies, 1X sales, with a clear path to profitability looks like a steal.
    Jun 4 12:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GNC: Overly Discounted GARP Investment [View article]
    Just took a quick look at VITC's 2013 financials. EBITDA was -$6.8MM. However, they had $30+MM in expenses related to each G&A and sales and marketing. A strategic buyer should easily be able to knock out about half of each of those categories. That would put us as EBITDA of about $27MM or an EV/EBITDA to an acquirer of about 7.2X. With its long growth runway, it should command a multiple well above 10X. A quick guess is that a buyer would be willing to pay 12X-14X post cut EBITDA.
    Jun 3 03:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
292 Comments
156 Likes