Tesla Motors: A Short Sellers Dream Stock? [View article]
Yes we have, over on Stocktwits. Little more room here to discuss ideas though. Do manufacturers of ICE potentially have the same cost cutting advantage going forward? It doesn't seem like that is the case considering ICEs have been around for a long time at mass production levels and PHEV/BEV sales are still under 500k per year. A BMW 7 series will cost $10k more in fuel then a 60kWh Model S over only 5 years(see: http://1.usa.gov/12qvvGI) Are customers willing to pay $20k more over 10 years to drive as equally priced BMW? What will these cost savings be when battery costs are cut in half?
Also my last point, you said " and even if they cut the costs to those levels I still think the market value takes into account most of that success." So once again, why would Tesla trade at the same P/E as other automakers given that the price of the MOST expensive thing in their vehicles may be cut in half in 7 years?
Tesla Motors: A Short Sellers Dream Stock? [View article]
"Tesla Motor niche remains a niche only business and struggles to grow sales past the five digit threshold." The current production is between 20k-25k and you are talking about struggling to grow sales beyond 100k? How can you determine that 3+ years out from how they will struggle with demand? "Musk's highly optimistic views on significantly lower battery costs don't materialize" Read this article: http://bit.ly/11gsVy9 If Tesla is currently paying $400 per kWh and expects to make margins fo 25% without ZEV credits by Q4, what will the margins on the Model S be in 2020 with battery costs cut in half? Lets say $400*85kWh=$34,000 so with $200*85kWh=$17,000. Also, the Model S battery replacement plan after 8 years would begin in 2020. You can pre-purchase that battery now for 12,000 or $141 per kWh which is not too far off from $200 estimates. "The nationwide network of superchargers significantly increases cap ex & drains cash flow" If they are going to spend the money anyway and have the cash on hand now, why not build the Super Charger network early? The earlier they are up, the more time they have to sell electricity back to the grid. "The development of Model X, & costs overruns" This is one legitimate thing that may be a problem. Do we currently know how much they have slated to go towards Model X development? "Long term issues relating to the 8 year full warranty on the battery, likely will result in huge long term costs to Tesla Motor" Will likely? I think that should be "could result." There are no facts currently to back up your claim. "Competition from manufacturers with significantly more scale & experience entering the EV market more forcefully." Currently the Tesla Model S is outselling these cars from "experienced" manufacturers. With the scale they can flood the market like GM attempted with the Chevy Volt but at last count they have about 9000 sitting at dealerships and they just lowered the price. If they don't make a car people want they scale doesn't matter. "Lower priced competition already from the Volt, Prius, & Leaf dominate the low end market share, before Tesla Motors lower cost EV even hits the market." The Model S generates more revenue then all of the other EVs combined. Tesla is in a higher price market and there is no competition even from ICEs. I don't think that they will have a problem in the low end market. "A significant portion of the stocks run was from short sellers covering their wagers & not from long-term investors" Of course I agree with you here but the recent round of financing sure added a lot of long-term investors. Also, as of 5/31 there were still 18 million shorts in TSLA which is not counting anyone who shorted in the past week and a half when the stock price was in the 90s. "Options & trading activity points to a day trading stock & not a long-term investment." With a company int he current growth stage there is always volatility which would bring in the day traders. Nothing out of the ordinary with that. If you were to follow Tesla then I doubt you would have waited until it hit $100 to start a long position. "If Tesla Motor was valued even remotely close to other car manufacturers it would result in a substantial decline in price per share." What game changing technology have other car makers come up with in the last 10 or 20 or 30 years? So why would you value Tesla based on these stagnant giants? Take Ford, wipe out the dealers and then the union workers and then the advertising and add Elon Musk and add George Blankenship and add a car that can literally sell itself with 25% of people that test drive it end up purchasing it then see where Ford would be valued.
They can sell smartphones for $0 with a 2 year contract but I still buy the superior iphone for $200. Great products demand premium prices even if the maker of the product can produce it for less. Tesla makes driving a car fun, tell me one Volt owner that would say they get the same experience.
Will the volt still be around when the Gen II from Tesla launches? "May sales, in particular, fell 4.3 percent, to 1,607. By comparison, the overall U.S. automotive market was up 8.2 percent for the month." According to that same article there are 9000 Volts sitting at dealers currently and "Industry analysts have estimated it actually costs GM as much as $75,000 to build each Volt, or nearly twice the base price" Imagine if the Tesla Model S were to cost the company $200k for every $100k car.
I agree but what is the Long term plan for GM? Make the Volt cheap enough that Tesla will not be able to sell the Gen III and it will put them out of business? Say GM loses $25,000 per volt and they sell 25,000 per year,(23,461 last year) that would be loses annually of $625 Million. That cost seems rather inexpensive to try and put Tesla out of business considering GM brought in $152 Billion in revenue last year. Seems like a good bet for GM. IF this strategy does not work, GM will be left in the dust. They could have just put that money into developing something that people will actually want to buy.
Well currently the Model S is priced at 2x the Chevy Volt and about 3x the Nissan Leaf. I don't think that these two cheaper options are holding back Model S sales and I don't think they will hold back Gen III sales going forward.
Insider Siren: Is Now The Time To Buy These Stocks? [View article]
For Tesla, there was a huge buy of $100mil by Musk but look at the about $90mil of stock that was sold by insiders only in the 15 days prior to that purchase.
Tesla: Mr. Musk's Wild Ride At Your Expense [View article]
"The Department provided a $5.9 billion loan to Ford Motor Company to upgrade and modernize thirteen factories across six states and to introduce new technologies to raise the fuel efficiency of more than a dozen popular vehicles, including C-Max Hybrid, Focus, Escape, Fusion, Taurus, and F-150 trucks, representing approximately two million new vehicles annually. This investment is supporting approximately 33,000 manufacturing and engineering jobs across the United States." Tesla and Ford both got a loan from the DOE under the SAME PROGRAM. I don't think your California versus the UAW argument holds any water. Also, look up the size of the pharmaceutical lobby and the EV lobby, you will be surprised which one is bigger.
Quote from "http://1.usa.gov/14SsQn5" or google "ATVM Loan Program" if you do not trust .gov sources.
The Dark Side Of Tesla's Masterful Short Squeeze [View article]
"At prices in the $90 range it remains a sucker's bet with limited upside and unlimited risk." Why do you use the same inaccurate phrase in many of your articles? If a stock is at $90 then the LIMITED downside is to $0. The Upside would be unlimited.
Tesla: The Good, The Realistic And The Ugly Outlook [View article]
Considering Mercedes and Toyota have partnered with Tesla Motors, I doubt that competition will "eat Tesla for lunch." These partnerships show that Tesla has the best technology and patents in the EV space period. Have you done any forward looking into Tesla Motors? It seems you have not with the "rich people" comment. Tesla Motors first makes the best car period to bring brand awareness and to remove EV stereotypes. Of course that car, the Model S, would not be in the lower price range of cars. After they bring brand awareness and convince people that the Model S is the best car period and not just the best EV, they will continue to expand. Once they expand the Super Charger Network and the Model S is producing 20k+ models per year they will quickly move into Model X production. The Model X is built on the same platform so the retooling and production ramp up will not be nearly as expensive as it was for the Model S. The Model X will have the best all wheel drive of any car with it's two motors. Tesla Motors will then transition to the Gen III vehicles which is meant to be a $30-40k model that you will be able to afford. Tesla Motors recently announced a no-fault battery warrant and a financing plan that will allow many people to afford the lower range Model S. I wonder if you are talking about the U.S. government or governments worldwide with "expensive toys subsidized by the government." There are 20+ countries that offer EV incentives because they reduce dependence on gasoline and they produce zero emissions. Would you rather spend government funds on the defense budget?
Tesla Motors Vs. Clean Energy Fuels [View article]
Your post made me laugh. When people are always complaining that the Model S is so expensive they fail to compare it to equivalent cars. Even with the battery pack it is the same price as ICE vehicles. The consumer is not getting a car then paying a $15,000 premium on top of that. If you are shopping for a $75,000-$100,000 car the Model S is just as expensive as any BMW or Mercedes that fits in that category.
Tesla Motors Vs. Clean Energy Fuels [View article]
Through Solar City the cost of installing solar panels is $0, the car is expensive for most but the plan is to have a car a little more then the price of an Honda civic in a few years. What does it cost to set up a home fueling system for a natural gas vehicle?
Tesla Motors' Impending Short Squeeze [View article]
On April 1st,(The day of Elon Musk announcing a profitable quarter) 14 million shares traded that day and the stock was up 16%. Imagine the gains we will see when the shorts actually start to cover. All 30 million of them.
Tesla Motors: A Short Sellers Dream Stock? [View article]
Are customers willing to pay $20k more over 10 years to drive as equally priced BMW?
What will these cost savings be when battery costs are cut in half?
Also my last point, you said " and even if they cut the costs to those levels I still think the market value takes into account most of that success."
So once again, why would Tesla trade at the same P/E as other automakers given that the price of the MOST expensive thing in their vehicles may be cut in half in 7 years?
Tesla Motors: A Short Sellers Dream Stock? [View article]
The current production is between 20k-25k and you are talking about struggling to grow sales beyond 100k? How can you determine that 3+ years out from how they will struggle with demand?
"Musk's highly optimistic views on significantly lower battery costs don't materialize"
Read this article: http://bit.ly/11gsVy9
If Tesla is currently paying $400 per kWh and expects to make margins fo 25% without ZEV credits by Q4, what will the margins on the Model S be in 2020 with battery costs cut in half? Lets say $400*85kWh=$34,000 so with $200*85kWh=$17,000. Also, the Model S battery replacement plan after 8 years would begin in 2020. You can pre-purchase that battery now for 12,000 or $141 per kWh which is not too far off from $200 estimates.
"The nationwide network of superchargers significantly increases cap ex & drains cash flow"
If they are going to spend the money anyway and have the cash on hand now, why not build the Super Charger network early? The earlier they are up, the more time they have to sell electricity back to the grid.
"The development of Model X, & costs overruns"
This is one legitimate thing that may be a problem. Do we currently know how much they have slated to go towards Model X development?
"Long term issues relating to the 8 year full warranty on the battery, likely will result in huge long term costs to Tesla Motor"
Will likely? I think that should be "could result." There are no facts currently to back up your claim.
"Competition from manufacturers with significantly more scale & experience entering the EV market more forcefully."
Currently the Tesla Model S is outselling these cars from "experienced" manufacturers. With the scale they can flood the market like GM attempted with the Chevy Volt but at last count they have about 9000 sitting at dealerships and they just lowered the price. If they don't make a car people want they scale doesn't matter.
"Lower priced competition already from the Volt, Prius, & Leaf dominate the low end market share, before Tesla Motors lower cost EV even hits the market."
The Model S generates more revenue then all of the other EVs combined. Tesla is in a higher price market and there is no competition even from ICEs. I don't think that they will have a problem in the low end market.
"A significant portion of the stocks run was from short sellers covering their wagers & not from long-term investors"
Of course I agree with you here but the recent round of financing sure added a lot of long-term investors. Also, as of 5/31 there were still 18 million shorts in TSLA which is not counting anyone who shorted in the past week and a half when the stock price was in the 90s.
"Options & trading activity points to a day trading stock & not a long-term investment."
With a company int he current growth stage there is always volatility which would bring in the day traders. Nothing out of the ordinary with that. If you were to follow Tesla then I doubt you would have waited until it hit $100 to start a long position.
"If Tesla Motor was valued even remotely close to other car manufacturers it would result in a substantial decline in price per share."
What game changing technology have other car makers come up with in the last 10 or 20 or 30 years? So why would you value Tesla based on these stagnant giants? Take Ford, wipe out the dealers and then the union workers and then the advertising and add Elon Musk and add George Blankenship and add a car that can literally sell itself with 25% of people that test drive it end up purchasing it then see where Ford would be valued.
GM Just Curbed Tesla [View article]
GM Just Curbed Tesla [View article]
"May sales, in particular, fell 4.3 percent, to 1,607. By comparison, the overall U.S. automotive market was up 8.2 percent for the month."
According to that same article there are 9000 Volts sitting at dealers currently and "Industry analysts have estimated it actually costs GM as much as $75,000 to build each Volt, or nearly twice the base price" Imagine if the Tesla Model S were to cost the company $200k for every $100k car.
quotes from:
http://nbcnews.to/11tKvNW
GM Just Curbed Tesla [View article]
GM Just Curbed Tesla [View article]
Insider Siren: Is Now The Time To Buy These Stocks? [View article]
The Dark Side Of Tesla's Masterful Short Squeeze [View article]
Tesla: Mr. Musk's Wild Ride At Your Expense [View article]
Quote from "http://1.usa.gov/14SsQn5" or google "ATVM Loan Program" if you do not trust .gov sources.
The Dark Side Of Tesla's Masterful Short Squeeze [View article]
Tesla: A 'Can Do No Wrong' Investor Attitude May Signal An 'Apple-Like' Top [View article]
Tesla: The Good, The Realistic And The Ugly Outlook [View article]
Tesla Motors Vs. Clean Energy Fuels [View article]
Tesla Motors Vs. Clean Energy Fuels [View article]
Tesla Motors' Impending Short Squeeze [View article]