Christopher Cowan

Christopher Cowan
Contributor since: 2012
didn't Elon Musk do something similar in regard to Tesla?
It appears that Tesla can actually make a decent profit off of the Super Chargers because they currently charge $2000 per car for access to them
Recommended shorting Pandora on Dec 23rd.
Stock price: $29.58
Posts article saying 'don't say i didn't warn you' on March 6th.
Stock price: $37.23
Tesla is giving information on the Gigafactory next week. In order for these other big car companies to produce more EVs they will need to build factories of their own. As far as I know, none of the big car companies have even entertained that idea and Musk ready to lay out his plan. Tesla Motors is far ahead of the competition.
Tesla sold over 20,000 Model S vehicles in 2013 and the Toyota Corona had U.S. sales of 20,000 in 1966.
Toyota sold its one-millionth vehicle in 1972.
Tesla is also on track to produce its one-millionth vehicle within 7 years(estimates)
In the year 1986 Toyota sold over 1 million vehicles just in the U.S.
Tesla has 20 years to accomplish this to match Toyota.
The lack of a need to recall vehicles with the over-the-air updates will save a lot of time and money for Tesla Motors. Also consider, the high margins that Tesla will achieve through battery cost reduction.
The trend is down, but the bulk of the reservations were also in California. Just need to see where demand levels out in the United States. As of now, a 20,000 U.S. demand per year is expected for the Model S.
The potential in China is huge.
But can all of the other automakers rake in the premiums that Tesla can?
I should have written "If automakers don't construct their own factories they will either have to buy from Tesla or Panasonic needs to build more factories."
Either way, the amount of battery factories being built should play a major role in reducing the overall cost of the batteries.
Elon Musk mentioned that the factory and the machines for the factory won't be built until they know the exact makeup of the Gen III. Considering the rumor of a Gen II appearing in early 2015 at an autoshow, they won't need to raise the money for the factory anytime soon in my opinion. Even if they did raise money to take advantage of the stock price, they would just be sitting on a lot of cash.
If 20-25% of new cars are EVs by 2025 as Elon Musk believes, batteries will become a lot cheaper over the next 10 years. Automakers will either have to buy from Tesla or Panasonic needs to build more factories.
How are any of your arguments different then Tesla in the U.S. a few years ago? Tesla was only known by the few that bought a roadster(under 2500) and now look at the success of the Model S so far.
Start with 265 EPA rated miles for the Model S. How many hours does a person drive before they stop to take a break? Lets say about 3 hours. That would leave the car with roughly 50 miles left. The next step would be to stop at a Supercharger and break for lunch/dinner. That could take anywhere between 20-60 minutes while the car is charging the whole time. Get back in the car and continue the 5 hour long trip with only having to stop once. I would say that is rather convenient unless you are the type that likes to drive 5 hours without stopping. The Model S would definitely not be for you.
Does there need to be an injury for this to occur?
Explain the sales of smartphones..
Because previously the analysts said 100% upside? No. There is relatively no difference between the % return on current price targets compared to price targets in the past. Go back and look when the stock was around $30, there were no PTs even over $50.
For your reference:
Permabears with no position are just a joke.
Then we will hear for several years about the availability of hydrogen fuel stations just like we heard about charging stations. Will Toyota build hydrogen fueling stations across the US? Doubt it.
What will happen when the fuel cell car from Toyota priced at $50,000 has to compete with the $35,000 Gen III from Tesla? Is there a premium to electric cars? Yes. Although, I don't see how you can argue the fuel savings versus the premium cost of an electric car and then justify a $50,000 fuel cell car. Are you claiming that the premium for a fuel cell car will pay for itself with gas savings in 2015?
"The car is expected to be sold for about $50,000 and it is likely to attract those that love long road trips"
Doesn't the Super Charger network attract those that love long road trips also? Drive across the country for FREE.
" For those that are looking for commuter cars, current hybrids and electric cars such as Volt and Leaf will do fine."
Do you know the percentage of trips that are under 50 miles? 95%
Range is not an issue with the Model S, due to the Super Chargers.
I thought they had editors on this site...
"at least twice" as expensive based on what?
The advantage of an EV is that the cost savings that come from fuel, less maintenance, and lower depreciation alone will allow people to purchase a car with a higher sticker price. A person in the market for a $50,000 car might be able to afford a $65,000 Model S if they factor in cost savings. These savings would be even more if they have Solar energy coming from their house. The market for a Model S would actually be larger then the current market for comparable ICEs.
If you are referring to Sal's articles as "sweet hopium dreams" then I suggest you actually go read them. He has been dead on with the predictions. You could learn a thing or two about TSLA.
Apples growth and margin stopping increasing at the same pace. Tesla is still growing and margins are still increasing. Tesla hasn't gotten to that "Apple $700" level.
Demand levels? Give an example of a comparable product that had demand peak within the first year of its production. The automotive industry hasn't seen anything like the Model S from the big automakers.
His arguments when applied to other companies or industries just don't make any sense at all. Like this gem, "Based on an unsustainable resource." The next article should be about why gasoline cars are the best way to move forward and how gasoline is a sustainable resource.
Why isn't that the case with ALL other automakers then? Why bother making an A7 when the A5 is cheaper? Just because you would rather spend less doesn't mean people that regularly purchase 70-100k cars would drop down to a 40k car.
Any facts to back that up? How many miles is significantly?
I noticed that also and they addressed it on the call. They are still guiding for Q4 margin to be 25% without ZEV credits. Potentially 30% with the ZEV credits(my thoughts). After all, Elon needs 4 Quarters of 30% gross margin to unlock more stock for himself.
Elon Musk said over the weekend that they could produce a 500-mile range car but it would be widely expensive.
Added to the disclosure section of Tesla Motors articles should be either:
1. I have driven a Model S
2. I have never used the product but I feel the need to give an opinion on it anyway.
" if Tesla is currently probably making no more than $1000 at a $70,000"
I think the words "currently probably" should be left out when attempting to make calculations. The Model S is still in the early stages of it's production cycle. It will only get less expensive from here by removing inefficiencies in manufacturing and with the cost of the battery dropping. Say the cost of the batteries just in the Model S drop by $3000 over the next few years. That is $3000 more money they make PER car. Valuing a future car to the early stages of a current car is widely overreaching.
As far as the "Model S 48" goes, they are not just making a Model S with a smaller battery for the Gen III. It is a completely different car. That is like saying putting a smaller engine in a 7 series won't drop the price by half, well obviously. They would need to make the 3 series smaller and include less features on top of having a less expensive engine.
The uninformed spread their filth everywhere. Tesla could have stopped at the roadster and have been profitable. The production of new vehicles is where the expenses come into play. The goal of Elon Musk is to make an impact on the entire industry.