Christopher Gonsalves

Gaming, tech, media, esports
Christopher Gonsalves
Gaming, tech, media, esports
Contributor since: 2012
Company: eSports Hero
The scenario you laid out is plausible, but I doubt that they are going to take the easy way out. I can also tell by your description of the service that you're not a daily fanatical Twitter user like many of us are.
Twitter is the most powerful communication platform in the world. Whether you're living under an impressive government or just want to rant about how much you hate Trump and love Sanders, Twitter is an extremely useful tool that is used globally. An Egyptian blogger can have the same voice as CNN and help start a revolution. That's invaluable.
Twitter gives you a universal right to tell the world what you're thinking or seeing in real time. I've witnessed breaking news before it was picked up on MSM using Twitter live section and periscope. No other platform does that as efficiently. Nobody uses hashtags on FB and so FB is basically a closed network because no one uses the public features.
Yes, they have a monetization problem and slowing user growth, but I remember very clearly in 2013 when everyone said FB stock was shit and I was one of few people buying it in the low 20s because I could see the potential if they got over the hump. Moments is a great new feature and will continue to get better when users are able to create their own moment sections. They'll find better ways to monetize and unlock growth. They really haven't bogged the platform down with much ads yet so there's still room there along with other creative ways they haven't tried yet.
Dorsey has done more in the past 60 days then was done in the past 6 months before he took over. I wouldn't expect them to tap out quite yet. I've been buying since it hit 25 and I'll continue to accumulate more if it drops after earnings. Twitter has changed world already and the potential is massive if they execute well.
1) It's going to be extremely difficult for YouTube Gaming to overcome Twitch's first mover advantage. Even in a best case scenario it wouldn't "kill Twitch", more like just take a significant bite out of its market share. How could it accomplish this? Better partner contracts, more streaming features, synergies with YouTube and Google's other services. We've yet to see much Amazon influence on Twitch so even if Google comes with a bunch of interesting ideas, they will still be competing with another titan who has lot's of tricks up their sleeves.
2) They're used to be a great gaming channel I would watch (G4 Tech TV) that was around before Twitch. My cable package stopped covering G4 years ago so I needed to get my gaming content fix elsewhere. Twitch, YouTube, and Netflix-like services are now all I need to watch any show/video series I desire. There's always torrents as well for the savvy internet user who can't find what they want on Netflix. I can't really speak for every young person my age, but for me personally, there's absolutely zero reason to pay for cable anymore. I can go to a bar to watch a big sports game or find a mediocre quality stream online that's showing it.
The big losers are the Kodak's of the traditional TV world who don't act on this shift in media consumption. The eSport industry is doing great, but it can always use new sponsors for events and players. Many of these mid tier teams are hungry for capital to get their brands/companies off the ground and would be happy to put an airline's logo or McDonalds logo on their jersey to get needed funding. McDonalds is a great example because they advertise a lot. No one thinks fast food and Big Macs when they think of eSports, but that doesn't really matter. I don't think of Citibank when I think of the Mets , but Citifield is a thing and there's a million other examples like that. Once most companies realizes this opportunity it's not just going to be Red Bull and Intel. It's going to be every smart company so they might as well get in early.
2008. I really like that Activision recently chose to have Call of Duty on a 3 year cycle now with 3 different developers. This year's should be the best in a while since it has the Zombies mode that Treyarch is famous for. What don't you like about them?
Do you predict this to be is an another Amazon 'away-from-retail' innovation screwup?
Absolutely not. This is going to be Google buying YouTube all over again. Might have looked a bit expensive at the time, but this is an entire industry that's still in its infancy and has yet to be fully monetized. I feel the same way about FB and Oculus, possible even more so. Zuckerberg is a genius for snatching that up when he did. That price will seem cheap in a few years. Picture being front row at a basketball game or seeing your doctor using the Oculus Headset. It's not just about games.
- Rather than Apple itself being the competitor, is anyone trying to provide a Twitch-like service available for Apple TV (and/or competitors), that isn't a competitor to Apple in other areas? Kind of like Netflix, MLB TV etc.?
YouTube Gaming could potentially be its own Apple TV service.
- Is there a sense within the gaming community that it is "uncool" to use a mainstream capitalist company to forward their niche sport? Meaning that Apple, Amazon, Google etc. wouldn't be as accepted as a startup or a dedicated-to-gaming company making it themselves?
Amazon has so far had a very hands off approach with Twitch(maybe too hands off), probably because they didn't want to fall into that category and make any sweeping changes too quickly. Start ups definitely have the potential to be more disruptive, but I haven't seen any consensus among the gaming community that views them as less capable or uncool. Apple and Facebook are the ones that really need (and easily can) step up to the plate. Oculus is a big deal, but they can do more.
ATVI is my pick. Great company with fantastic titles. Hearthstone, Heroes of the Storm, Starcraft 2, and later this year Overwatch
Fixed. For WSOP and The World Cup I clarified that I meant the first place winners and not the entire prize pool
Great Article J Mintz. Just followed you on Twitter. I also got caught buying puts yesterday thinking the street would react rationally (especially is this tepid environment) to bad #'s and sell off below 450 (at least). Considering the 15% run up in 6 trading days leading up to ER day, the AH gain is borderline insanity.
You would think it would be a no brainer to short for the next week or so, but watch it blast past 550 and keep going...
Looking at the option charts, the calls were already over inflated yesterday going into ER and put prices were getting pretty depressed. Any sane investor (including the big boys) would book gains here. If I were them I would use some of that crazy profit to buy some May puts that are now incredibly depressed in price compared to only a couple weeks ago.
They already made 400-500% in the past 2 weeks so now transfer some of that capital into some puts and make another 200% easy. I didn't lose that much today, but it still doesn't feel good. Think I may double down with some May puts. Jan puts are a little too expensive for me. What strikes would you be looking at for May?
A lot of what you said is true. I'd love to see ATVI sub 21 before taking a big position again. Although, I think you're a bit pessimistic about their current lineup for the next 12 months.
Some quick points:
Heroes of the Storm beta is off to a decent start and is jam packed with (expensive) microtransactions. I believe Overwatch could be a gigantic hit early next year similar to Destiny. WoW is the best shape its been in years so I don't expect a big drop is subs. Hearthstone is about to take over mobile gaming in a few months. This year's Call of Duty will finally see the return on the beloved Zombies game type which will certainly boost sales.
I'll go into a lot more details in my next article. Good article overall though, ATVI investors should be cautious at these levels especially with market feeling very toppy.
PS, Angry Birds is not a direct competitor lol
Seems like a great buyout target for ATVI if things get any worse. I'm in at 2.40 as a speculative Q4 ER play. Much cheaper than Razer headsets.
Thanks for your comment DeathKnight. I have a combination of 2016 LEAPs and short term call spreads. The February and May spreads are surprisingly cheap ahead of this ER. Feb 21/24 spread going for 1.05 currently.
Their Price/Sales (20.5) and Price/Book (6.50) are the highest in their industry so there's definitely room for more downside, but one big announcement or ER and this thing can hit $60 quick.
Would also like to see a home product, similar to what Elon mentioned on a TSLA cc a few months back. Something like an wall-mounted unit that can charge anything.
Bought a couple 2016 LEAPS recently and will probably buy more right before their ER
Hey rotorite, thanks for reading. I definitely could have added more technical information, but that wasn't my intended goal of the article. IMO, it's a lot more valuable for this stock to give an educated investor's prospective who knows these products inside and out and can accurately predict/review the future success of new content/IPs than it is to go over technicals.
With that said, I've been watching the options market meticulously and we've had some significant accumulation in February calls the whole way down from 24 (Specifically in the 21 strike). For anyone who agrees with my assessment and has done their own due diligence might look to a February call spread as an affordable play leading into the Q4 earnings report. For example the 21/24 spread is going for .60 at the moment and provides some attractive reward potential.
Ah, thanks for catching that. I'll take that out. AW is a lot more fast paced and jetpack focused so I can understand why some are turned off by that element.
This article is uninformed and leaves out a lot of relevant information. I've just submitted an article of my own on ATVI that addresses all of the overlooked issues
If EA pops after this earnings I'm definitely buying puts for Q4. ATVI has a much stronger lineup (Destiny expansions, Call of Duty Advanced Warfare, Warlords of Draenor expansion, and contuned holiday sales of Skylanders Trap Team) and EA doesn't even have their usual Battlefield iteration to compete with Call of Duty.
Like you pointed out, all of EA's good games came out this quarter (Madden, Fifa, and Sims) so there's a good chance they meet or beat expectations so I'm not sure it's smart to go short pre-earnings, but I sure would like to. I could be a sell the news beat since smart investors can see the lackluster Q4 coming and they could even lower Q4 estimates(not to mention the stock is up 3.4% today on no news).
I've been playing Destiny for a few week now and I have to say the reviews are not accurate of the entire picture. Yes, the single player story mode isn't good and I stopped playing it before I finished it, but the point is this is overwhelmingly intended to be a multiplayer experience. The 6v6 matches and the Objective game modes are quite addicting and reminiscent of the Halo 2/3 days. Not quite on that game changing level, but decently close and definitely better than any other shooter released this year. Lets also not forget Destiny sell-through was over $325 million worldwide in the game’s first five days so luke warm reviews or not it's definitely going to help EPS.
I can see myself continuing to play Destiny until Advanced Warfare comes out so yes this holiday quarter will easily be won by ATVI. I sold the calls I had picked a couple days ago today, but I play to jump back in again before the end of the month. I was very sad about Titan too, but considering there was never any concrete info on it, i can't be too upset. For the near term it won't affect anything, but they better have another MMO in the works before the end of next year or I'd start to get worried then. They can keep WoW the top subbed MMO for another year or so, but it won't last forever.
Yeah, but it seems like the record breaking Destiny sales were a sell the news event. Reminds me of when Take Two had that amazing quarter with GTA5 sales and Carl Icahn dumped all his shares and they left the board.
ATVI has so much going for it, but from now until the next Call of Duty hype really starts i could see it testing 20 again.
Now is definitely a good time to take some profits if you've been in most of the year, but with that said I think Destiny will break records for fasting selling new IP this week. They've spent a ton on development and marketing, but this is a completely new blockbuster with new rev to add to their already dominant list.
Bungie has one of the best followings in the industry because of the Halo Franchise. I've also seen Instagram and Twitter hastags going nuts the past few days with #Destiny related content.
In my opinion, Destiny, plus its own expansion packs, and a new WoW + Skylanders expansion will give ATVI a record 4th quarter revenue wise, but the run for the stock is getting pretty toppy in the near term.
$ATVI is betting big on Destiny. I've seen all the ridiculous advertisements in the NYC Times Square subway...As an Xbox One user, I haven't played the Destiny beta, but I've always been a HUGE fan of Bungie and the Halo Series.
The marketing budget for this game is excessive, but I think the Destiny franchise will make $1 billion dollars in revenue in wayyy less than 1 year. Call Of Duty routinely makes $1 billion in the first few weeks so a glorified new IP like Destiny should make AT LEAST $1 billion in the first 6 months, especially as a cross platform blockbuster game released at the beginning of the holiday season on a new console generarion that's officially 1 year old now and starting to mature.
Disclaimer: I've pre-ordered Destiny for Xbox One and I play Hearthstone on my days off for about 2-3 hours a day
Buy bitcoins
Historically, Apple tends to trade down the day of major events. Primarily due to everything already being known beforehand. With the large run up this week I expect the same thing to happen unless something really unexpected is announced like the iWatch. Do anyone think it's likely they would announce it at WWDC or more likely reserve a seperate event for it?
looks like a good deal to me. They stepped up their social media game a lot via Instagram mostly
Some possible Titan news?
Great article Alpha Hunter. What did they say exactly about being open to being acquired, I must have missed that question
Great article Peter. I've been a Graphite One shareholder since I saw this article:
According to that article, the project is scalable and could have much more than 300 mil metric tons. It has over 4 billion worth of graphite now and could exceed 1 billion metric tons once it's is fully dsicovered
Hello Hunter,
Thanks for reading. I liked it better when the level 90 boost was going to be free. I haven't played WoW in 5 years, but I was actually considering trying the new expansion if the boost all the way to 90 was free.
In the end, it will probably be more revenue for them, but they are definitely losing out on some potential returning players.
COD in china (which is free to play) will make them a lot of money from microtransactions. It blends all the CoD games, using the favorite maps from all the earlier titles
I like ATVI a lot more than EA in the long term, but I wouldn't risk shorting EA this time around because Titanfall sold well.
Regardless, I expect ATVI to have an even bigger blowout quarter than EA because of unexpectedly high revenue from Hearthstone. Full year Guidance for ATVI will also likely overshadow EA's guidance. EA cannot stand up to a new call of duty and also Destiny's launch this fall.
I could write a whole article on their business model with Hearthstone, but one big thing I forgot to mention was the "Curse of Naxxramas" expansion that was announced a couple weeks ago.
Estimated for early Q3 release, it will bring new campaign-style content as well as new cards, once a week, for 5 weeks. The first week will be free for all and the following weeks will cost either a significant amount of in-game gold or real money.
There's over 10 million accounts now, probably 15 mil now w/ iPad launch. Each one of those players likely tried Arena AT LEAST once ($1.99) or bought 1 pack ($2.99). Not even counting the upcoming expansion pack, this is a large amount of PURE PROFIT (doesn't cost anything to sell digital Arena tickets or digital cards) that the Street is not acknowledging.
For Q3, reported in Nov, Curse of Naxxramas could be the main revenue source for the entire quarter, which is usually quiet.
First sentence should say Q1 earnings not Q2. Sorry for any errors, this was a quick write up. I plan to write a more in depth article post ER
As a shareholder (200 shares), I will not be caught with my pants down again this ER.
I'm buying in the money puts to protect my shares. The question is how many? Do I want to break even if it drops 5% or do I want to just cushion the blow and not spend so much on puts?
great point about the DOE funding, had not seen that