In this report, we'll discuss BP in more depth than the prior research. We'll cover the financial position, discuss the oil spill, analyze the cash flows, develop a relative valuation, forecast the U.S. unemployment rate, conduct technical analysis, and make an investment recommendation. This report isn't meant to cover all aspects of BP's operations, but it does go into considerable depth relative to the prior research.

My goal as a professional investor is to generate alpha for myself and my clients. I generate alpha through information asymmetries and the timing of my investments. That said, I'm not managing money for

]]>On January 9, 2013, I published research suggesting BP is undervalued and investors should accumulate shares of BP. The research included statistical analysis of BP's return series; also, there was some analysis of the valuation and historic financial performance. Since that research was published, the share price of BP declined.

In this report, we'll discuss BP in more depth than the prior research. We'll cover the financial position, discuss the oil spill, analyze the cash flows, develop a relative valuation, forecast the U.S. unemployment rate, conduct technical analysis, and make an investment recommendation. This report isn't meant to cover all aspects of BP's operations, but it does go into considerable depth relative to the prior research.

My goal as a professional investor is to generate alpha for myself and my clients. I generate alpha through information asymmetries and the timing of my investments. That said, I'm not managing money for

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In this report, we'll determine how Exxon investors should be positioned. As usual, my goal is to increase alpha or generate better risk-adjusted returns. I generate alpha through correctly forecasting the share price.

In this report, we'll take a look at a number of model inputs that impact Exxon's operational metrics. We'll examine the proved reserves, and realization prices; we'll also

]]>On January 8, 2013, I published a report entitled, "Why You Should Accumulate Shares of Exxon." Since that report, shares of Exxon (NYSE:XOM) increased in value and have since begun to decline. Thus, the share price is at roughly the same level that I recommended purchasing the shares. While the broader market rallied substantially, Exxon was a laggard. I was anticipating a breakout in crude oil prices that never materialized. Crude oil, however, didn't decline substantially in price. Thus, that investment thesis remains in tact for a later date.

In this report, we'll determine how Exxon investors should be positioned. As usual, my goal is to increase alpha or generate better risk-adjusted returns. I generate alpha through correctly forecasting the share price.

In this report, we'll take a look at a number of model inputs that impact Exxon's operational metrics. We'll examine the proved reserves, and realization prices; we'll also

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BlackBerry is the focus of this report that will try to help you (investors) improve your risk-adjusted returns or

]]>I took a trip down memory lane: the last article I wrote about BlackBerry (NASDAQ:BBRY) was on April 16, 2012. Back then, the company was featured in a report about Nokia (NYSE:NOK). Basically, I wrote that BlackBerry smartphones serve a purpose and that Nokia was making a strategic blunder by partnering with Microsoft to develop smartphones. I'm not trying to blow my own French horn, but one year later, Northland Securities was wrong as Nokia didn't outperform. The share price is at the same level, if not lower, than it was one year ago. That said, I still believe that BlackBerry smartphones serve a purpose, but they don't serve enough of a purpose, as Samsung has developed the Galaxy Note II, which is probably the best business phone on the planet.

BlackBerry is the focus of this report that will try to help you (investors) improve your risk-adjusted returns or

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The goal of this research report is to help investors improve risk-adjusted returns. Also, investors should have a better understanding of the industry at the end of this report.

The aforementioned firms tend to be purchased for the divided yields. Thus, we'll analyze them from the perspective of a credit analyst. Additionally, we'll discuss the sources and uses of cash flows. Then, we'll value the equity securities. Finally, we'll utilize the technical tools and reach an investment recommendation.

The valuations are a bit stretched; thus, investors should begin to take profit, which was made

]]>The last time I wrote about Sprint Nextel (NYSE:S), I briefly discussed the historic share price performance. More recently, I wrote about AT&T and Verizon. In those reports I recommended investors to reduce long-equity exposure to the share price of both AT&T (NYSE:T) and Verizon (NYSE:VZ). In this report we'll go into more detail about Sprint.

The goal of this research report is to help investors improve risk-adjusted returns. Also, investors should have a better understanding of the industry at the end of this report.

The aforementioned firms tend to be purchased for the divided yields. Thus, we'll analyze them from the perspective of a credit analyst. Additionally, we'll discuss the sources and uses of cash flows. Then, we'll value the equity securities. Finally, we'll utilize the technical tools and reach an investment recommendation.

The valuations are a bit stretched; thus, investors should begin to take profit, which was made

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That said, ultimately, our goal is to reach an investment recommendation based on the facts. Hopefully, that investment recommendation will improve our risk-adjusted performance. Oracle's share price tanked about a week after the release of the report, and investors who followed my recommendation saved money. If I can correctly forecast Salesforce.com's share price, investors will save some of their hard earned capital.

In this report, we'll cover Salesforce.com's historic financial performance relative to its peers. Also, we'll discuss the statement of cash flows, balance sheet, and stock-based expenses. Next, we'll forecast fiscal 2014 financial performance

]]>March 14, 2013, I published an article with a section comparing Salesforce.com (NYSE:CRM) to Oracle (NYSE:ORCL). We compared the sales growth rates of both firms, but we didn't get into much detail about Salesforce.com. In this report, we'll go into more detail when we compare those two companies and other firms competing in the industry.

That said, ultimately, our goal is to reach an investment recommendation based on the facts. Hopefully, that investment recommendation will improve our risk-adjusted performance. Oracle's share price tanked about a week after the release of the report, and investors who followed my recommendation saved money. If I can correctly forecast Salesforce.com's share price, investors will save some of their hard earned capital.

In this report, we'll cover Salesforce.com's historic financial performance relative to its peers. Also, we'll discuss the statement of cash flows, balance sheet, and stock-based expenses. Next, we'll forecast fiscal 2014 financial performance

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Since that article, shares of Verizon stemmed their decline and advanced substantially. Further, the share price of AT&T also increased substantially. However, Verizon's share price outperformed AT&T's share price by roughly 600 basis points year-to-date. Part of the outperformance can be attributed to Verizon's higher sales growth rate the past few years; however, AT&T was the more profitable firm.

All of that said, I am going to update my analysis of Verizon and determine what investors should do with their shares. If I can accurately forecast the share price over the next few

]]>On January 4, 2013, I published an article suggesting investors distribute shares of Verizon (NYSE:VZ) as AT&T (NYSE:T) historically was the better performing company. The main points of the article are that AT&T's return distribution suggested the firm's returns are less risky; also, AT&T's profit margins and sales growth suggest it is the better firm to purchase.

Since that article, shares of Verizon stemmed their decline and advanced substantially. Further, the share price of AT&T also increased substantially. However, Verizon's share price outperformed AT&T's share price by roughly 600 basis points year-to-date. Part of the outperformance can be attributed to Verizon's higher sales growth rate the past few years; however, AT&T was the more profitable firm.

All of that said, I am going to update my analysis of Verizon and determine what investors should do with their shares. If I can accurately forecast the share price over the next few

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Investors need to know what they should do with their shares of AT&T. Thus, I will attempt to forecast the share price. My focus is on improving risk-adjusted returns or generating alpha.

We'll use the historic financial performance, including the operating segment performance, to determine where AT&T came from to reach where it is today. Then, we'll forecast AT&T's financial performance in 2013. Also, we'll create a forward multiplier model valuation. The technical perspective will be incorporated into the analysis. Finally, we'll finish with the conclusion and recommendations for further research.

The

]]>Back on December 12, 2012, I published an article entitled "Buy Shares of AT&T." Well, those of you that did made money; the share price of **AT&T** (NYSE:T) increased substantially since the bullish call back in December. Now it is time to revisit the valuations and financial performance of the firm to see what is our next move.

Investors need to know what they should do with their shares of AT&T. Thus, I will attempt to forecast the share price. My focus is on improving risk-adjusted returns or generating alpha.

We'll use the historic financial performance, including the operating segment performance, to determine where AT&T came from to reach where it is today. Then, we'll forecast AT&T's financial performance in 2013. Also, we'll create a forward multiplier model valuation. The technical perspective will be incorporated into the analysis. Finally, we'll finish with the conclusion and recommendations for further research.

The

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In this report, I am going to lay out a case that answers the question, "buy, sell, or hold?" Over the long term, I should be able to forecast the share price of Oracle well enough for investors to achieve superior risk-adjusted returns.

To determine what we should do with shares of Oracle, we are going to take a look at the historic financial performance, operating segments and a fiscal 2013 forecast. We'll also compare Oracle's financial performance to salesforce.com's (NYSE:CRM). Additionally, we'll value shares of Oracle, and we'll examine the share price from the perspective of a technical analyst.

]]>I published an article about Oracle (NYSE:ORCL) on August 13, 2012. In that article, I suggested investors reduce long-equity exposure to Oracle. I was right: Oracle's share price declined on the fiscal cliff worries. That said, I apologize: I wasn't able to publish an article suggesting investors increase long-equity exposure.

In this report, I am going to lay out a case that answers the question, "buy, sell, or hold?" Over the long term, I should be able to forecast the share price of Oracle well enough for investors to achieve superior risk-adjusted returns.

To determine what we should do with shares of Oracle, we are going to take a look at the historic financial performance, operating segments and a fiscal 2013 forecast. We'll also compare Oracle's financial performance to salesforce.com's (NYSE:CRM). Additionally, we'll value shares of Oracle, and we'll examine the share price from the perspective of a technical analyst.

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With the end of the first quarter of 2013 nearing, investors need to know if they should increase or decrease long-equity exposure to US Bancorp. If we can accurately forecast the share price in the coming quarter, we can improve risk-adjusted portfolio performance.

To assess what we should do with shares of US Bancorp, we are going to examine the financial performance relative to the industry. Also, we'll take a look at US Bancorp's operating segments. Further, we'll discuss cash flow from operations, the dividend and retained earnings. Then, we'll cover the 2013 forecast, the

]]>Back on October 19, 2012, I published an article suggesting investors reduce long-equity exposure to shares of US Bancorp (NYSE:USB). The share price of the firm then declined substantially. Unfortunately, I didn't publish a follow-up article suggesting investors increase long-equity exposure: The share price increased since the dip in the fourth quarter of last year.

With the end of the first quarter of 2013 nearing, investors need to know if they should increase or decrease long-equity exposure to US Bancorp. If we can accurately forecast the share price in the coming quarter, we can improve risk-adjusted portfolio performance.

To assess what we should do with shares of US Bancorp, we are going to examine the financial performance relative to the industry. Also, we'll take a look at US Bancorp's operating segments. Further, we'll discuss cash flow from operations, the dividend and retained earnings. Then, we'll cover the 2013 forecast, the

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Since that article, shares of PNC rallied sharply following the U.S. elections. Now is a good time to determine if PNC shareholders should buy, sell, or hold shares. If we can accurately determine when to buy and sell shares, we can achieve superior risk-adjusted returns or generate alpha. To do that, we'll discuss PNC's financial performance in 2012 and my 2013 forecast. We'll also cover PNC's valuation. Then, we'll examine PNC from the perspective of a technical analyst. Finally, we'll conclude the paper and make recommendations of topics warranting further investigations.

That said, investors should reduce long-equity exposure to PNC: The valuations

]]>On October 15, 2012, I published an article recommending investors purchase shares of PNC (NYSE:PNC) following heightened economic uncertainty. The report discussed PNC's operating segments, the U.S. fiscal deficit, and Greece. Also, I discussed common banking supervision in the euro area. That was then and this is now.

Since that article, shares of PNC rallied sharply following the U.S. elections. Now is a good time to determine if PNC shareholders should buy, sell, or hold shares. If we can accurately determine when to buy and sell shares, we can achieve superior risk-adjusted returns or generate alpha. To do that, we'll discuss PNC's financial performance in 2012 and my 2013 forecast. We'll also cover PNC's valuation. Then, we'll examine PNC from the perspective of a technical analyst. Finally, we'll conclude the paper and make recommendations of topics warranting further investigations.

That said, investors should reduce long-equity exposure to PNC: The valuations

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To assess relative value, you determine the current valuation of the firm. We'll use the price-sales ratio and price-earnings ratio to determine current value. Next, you forecast financial performance based on historic performance making adjustments for trends and anticipated structure changes within the firm and the industry. That said, based on the recent increase in the share price, Wells Fargo may be overvalued.

To determine if a firm is overvalued, a

]]>I have been bullish on common equity shares of Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC), and the market, for the past several months. Common equity shares of the financial services firm have increased substantially in value during the past few months. It could be time for investors to scale back their long equity position as shares of the firm may be overvalued. If we can accurately assess the firm's relative value and take the appropriate action, we can achieve better risk-adjusted returns.

To assess relative value, you determine the current valuation of the firm. We'll use the price-sales ratio and price-earnings ratio to determine current value. Next, you forecast financial performance based on historic performance making adjustments for trends and anticipated structure changes within the firm and the industry. That said, based on the recent increase in the share price, Wells Fargo may be overvalued.

To determine if a firm is overvalued, a

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Further, inflation remains around roughly 2 percent. Additionally, the ISM non-manufacturing index continues to signal economic expansion.

Point being, general business conditions remain good. Next we'll cover Bank of America specifically.

**Interest Income**

Gross interest income continued to decline in 2012 compared to 2011. The decline was 13 percent; that compared with a 12 percent decline in 2011 relative to 2010.

Between 2003 and 2012, gross interest income increased at an annual nominal compound rate of 7 percent. However, gross interest income peaked in 2007 and declined every year since. The pace of decline increased.

]]>The broader market and the share price of Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) continues to trend higher as the Fed and ECB add monetary stimulus to the financial system. The ADP non-farm employment change report signaled solid jobs growth over the past 15 months. Also, the unemployment claims number has been coming in below 400 thousand.

Further, inflation remains around roughly 2 percent. Additionally, the ISM non-manufacturing index continues to signal economic expansion.

Point being, general business conditions remain good. Next we'll cover Bank of America specifically.

**Interest Income**

Gross interest income continued to decline in 2012 compared to 2011. The decline was 13 percent; that compared with a 12 percent decline in 2011 relative to 2010.

Between 2003 and 2012, gross interest income increased at an annual nominal compound rate of 7 percent. However, gross interest income peaked in 2007 and declined every year since. The pace of decline increased.

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Further, the ISM non-manufacturing index continues to signal economic expansion. With that said, general business conditions remain positive and shares of Citigroup (NYSE:C) could continue to increase in price.

The Company reported 2012 full-year interest revenue of $68.14B. That is a 6.3 percent decline compared to 2011. I forecast interest revenue for 2013 to be between $65B and $72B. That is between a 5.7 percent increase and a decline of 4.6 percent.

For 2013's first quarter I am forecasting interest revenue to be between $16.9B and $16.5B.

The interest income-interest revenue margin expanded to 70 percent during 2012 compared to 2011.

In the first quarter of 2013 I expect the interest income-interest revenue margin to be between 68 and 72 percent. Interest

]]>Currently housing starts are increasing and sales of existing homes are increasing. Also, the Fed continues to provide the economy with monetary stimulus as the budget deficit shrinks.

Further, the ISM non-manufacturing index continues to signal economic expansion. With that said, general business conditions remain positive and shares of Citigroup (NYSE:C) could continue to increase in price.

The Company reported 2012 full-year interest revenue of $68.14B. That is a 6.3 percent decline compared to 2011. I forecast interest revenue for 2013 to be between $65B and $72B. That is between a 5.7 percent increase and a decline of 4.6 percent.

For 2013's first quarter I am forecasting interest revenue to be between $16.9B and $16.5B.

The interest income-interest revenue margin expanded to 70 percent during 2012 compared to 2011.

In the first quarter of 2013 I expect the interest income-interest revenue margin to be between 68 and 72 percent. Interest

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That said, Honeywell is a market leader during this intermediate-term advance, and investors should consider accumulating shares of Honeywell.

First, we'll use descriptive statistics by taking a sample of the population of nominal monthly returns of the Company. At this point, we won't make any statistical inferences. Some of the sample statistics will include the arithmetic time-series mean, and the time-series median. Also, we'll take a look at a histogram of nominal monthly returns. We'll also discuss the absolute frequencies, relative frequencies and cumulative relative frequencies of the return profile. Further, we'll determine the geometric mean return and the modal interval.

]]>In this article, we'll examine Honeywell International Inc. (NYSE:HON). We'll take a look at the risk-return profile. Also, we'll discuss the financial performance of the firm, and we'll take a look at Honeywell from the perspective of a technical analyst. Further, we'll conduct a relative valuation of the Company.

That said, Honeywell is a market leader during this intermediate-term advance, and investors should consider accumulating shares of Honeywell.

First, we'll use descriptive statistics by taking a sample of the population of nominal monthly returns of the Company. At this point, we won't make any statistical inferences. Some of the sample statistics will include the arithmetic time-series mean, and the time-series median. Also, we'll take a look at a histogram of nominal monthly returns. We'll also discuss the absolute frequencies, relative frequencies and cumulative relative frequencies of the return profile. Further, we'll determine the geometric mean return and the modal interval.

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We'll use descriptive statistics by taking a sample of the population of nominal monthly returns of the Company. At this point, we won't make any statistical inferences. Some of the sample statistics will include the arithmetic time-series mean, and the time-series median. Also, we'll take a look at a histogram of nominal monthly returns. We'll also discuss the absolute frequencies, relative frequencies and cumulative relative frequencies of the return profile. Further, we'll determine the geometric mean return and the modal interval. The sample will consist of monthly returns between January 2000 and January 2013.

Readers should note that the selected sample contains two bull markets and two bear markets. Further, the sample contains both high interest

]]>General Electric (NYSE:GE) is a laggard during this intermediate-term advance. The firm's financial performance lagged the U.S. economy. That said, I believe GE is a good short sale candidate, but you read and decide.

We'll use descriptive statistics by taking a sample of the population of nominal monthly returns of the Company. At this point, we won't make any statistical inferences. Some of the sample statistics will include the arithmetic time-series mean, and the time-series median. Also, we'll take a look at a histogram of nominal monthly returns. We'll also discuss the absolute frequencies, relative frequencies and cumulative relative frequencies of the return profile. Further, we'll determine the geometric mean return and the modal interval. The sample will consist of monthly returns between January 2000 and January 2013.

Readers should note that the selected sample contains two bull markets and two bear markets. Further, the sample contains both high interest

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We'll start by describing the risk-return profile of the security. Next we'll do a risk-return comparison with the S&P 500. Then we'll move into more tradition financial analysis: we'll cover the financial performance, valuation, and macroeconomic factors impacting the enterprise's valuation.

Also, we'll evaluate the Firm from the perspective of a technical analyst.

I think investors should accumulate shares of Wells Fargo, but you read and decide.

*Financial Analysis*

We'll use descriptive statistics by taking a sample of the population of nominal monthly returns of the Company. At this point, we won't make any statistical inferences. Some of the sample statistics will include the arithmetic time-series mean, and the

]]>I'm searching for good investments to make in 2013. In this article, we'll take a look at Wells Fargo & Company (NYSE:WFC). We'll evaluate Wells Fargo as an equity investment: We'll examine the historical share price performance, financial performance and valuation.

We'll start by describing the risk-return profile of the security. Next we'll do a risk-return comparison with the S&P 500. Then we'll move into more tradition financial analysis: we'll cover the financial performance, valuation, and macroeconomic factors impacting the enterprise's valuation.

Also, we'll evaluate the Firm from the perspective of a technical analyst.

I think investors should accumulate shares of Wells Fargo, but you read and decide.

*Financial Analysis*

We'll use descriptive statistics by taking a sample of the population of nominal monthly returns of the Company. At this point, we won't make any statistical inferences. Some of the sample statistics will include the arithmetic time-series mean, and the

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First, we'll use descriptive statistics by taking a sample of the population of monthly returns of Lorillard. At this point, we won't make any statistical inferences. Some of the sample statistics will include the arithmetic time-series mean monthly return, and the time-series median monthly return. Also, we'll take a look at a histogram. We'll also discuss the absolute frequencies, relative frequencies and cumulative relative frequencies of the return profile. Further, we'll determine the geometric mean return and the modal interval. The sample will consist of monthly returns between

]]>I'm searching for good investments to make in 2013. In this article, we'll take a look at Lorillard (NYSE:LO). We'll evaluate Lorillard an as equity investment: We'll examine the valuation, financial performance, and share price performance. Also, we'll evaluate the firm from the perspective of a technical analyst. The evidence suggests investors should accumulate shares of Lorillard, but you read and decide.

First, we'll use descriptive statistics by taking a sample of the population of monthly returns of Lorillard. At this point, we won't make any statistical inferences. Some of the sample statistics will include the arithmetic time-series mean monthly return, and the time-series median monthly return. Also, we'll take a look at a histogram. We'll also discuss the absolute frequencies, relative frequencies and cumulative relative frequencies of the return profile. Further, we'll determine the geometric mean return and the modal interval. The sample will consist of monthly returns between

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We'll use descriptive statistics by taking a sample of the population of monthly returns of Reynolds American. At this point, we won't make any statistical inferences. Some of the sample statistics will include the arithmetic time-series mean, and the time-series median. Also, we'll take a look at a histogram of nominal monthly returns. We'll also discuss the absolute frequencies, relative frequencies and cumulative relative frequencies of the return profile. Further, we'll determine the geometric mean return and the modal interval. The sample will consist of monthly returns between 2000 and January 2013.

Readers should note that the selected sample contains two bull

]]>I'm searching for good investments to make in 2013. In this article, we'll take a look at Reynolds American Inc. (NYSE:RAI). We'll take a look at Reynolds' historical share price performance as well as its financial performance. Also, we'll evaluate Reynolds from the perspective of a technical analyst.

We'll use descriptive statistics by taking a sample of the population of monthly returns of Reynolds American. At this point, we won't make any statistical inferences. Some of the sample statistics will include the arithmetic time-series mean, and the time-series median. Also, we'll take a look at a histogram of nominal monthly returns. We'll also discuss the absolute frequencies, relative frequencies and cumulative relative frequencies of the return profile. Further, we'll determine the geometric mean return and the modal interval. The sample will consist of monthly returns between 2000 and January 2013.

Readers should note that the selected sample contains two bull

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We'll use descriptive statistics by taking a sample of the population of monthly returns of BP. At this point, we won't make any statistical inferences. Some of the sample statistics will include the arithmetic time-series mean, and the time-series median. Also, we'll take a look at a histogram. We'll also discuss the absolute frequencies, relative frequencies and cumulative relative frequencies of the return profile. Further, we'll determine the geometric mean return and the modal interval. The sample will consist of monthly returns between 2000 and 2012.

The arithmetic time-series mean monthly nominal return was 0.5 percent. The time-series median monthly nominal return was 0.5

]]>I'm searching for good investments to make in 2013. In this article, we'll take a look at BP (NYSE:BP). We'll take a look at BP's historical share price performance as well as its financial performance. Also, we'll evaluate BP from the perspective of a technical analyst.

We'll use descriptive statistics by taking a sample of the population of monthly returns of BP. At this point, we won't make any statistical inferences. Some of the sample statistics will include the arithmetic time-series mean, and the time-series median. Also, we'll take a look at a histogram. We'll also discuss the absolute frequencies, relative frequencies and cumulative relative frequencies of the return profile. Further, we'll determine the geometric mean return and the modal interval. The sample will consist of monthly returns between 2000 and 2012.

The arithmetic time-series mean monthly nominal return was 0.5 percent. The time-series median monthly nominal return was 0.5

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First, we'll use descriptive statistics by taking a sample of the population of monthly returns of Exxon. At this point, we won't make any statistical inferences. Some of the sample statistics will include the arithmetic time-series mean, and the time-series median. Also, we'll take a look at a histogram. We'll also discuss the absolute frequencies, relative frequencies and cumulative relative frequencies of the return profile. Further, we'll determine the geometric mean return and the modal interval. The sample will consist of monthly returns between 2000 and 2012.

The arithmetic time-series mean monthly nominal return was 0.8 percent. The time-series median monthly nominal return

]]>I'm searching for good investments to make in 2013. In this article, we'll take a look at Exxon Mobile (NYSE:XOM). We'll take a look at Exxon's historical share price performance as well as its financial performance. Also, we'll evaluate Exxon from the perspective of a technical analyst.

First, we'll use descriptive statistics by taking a sample of the population of monthly returns of Exxon. At this point, we won't make any statistical inferences. Some of the sample statistics will include the arithmetic time-series mean, and the time-series median. Also, we'll take a look at a histogram. We'll also discuss the absolute frequencies, relative frequencies and cumulative relative frequencies of the return profile. Further, we'll determine the geometric mean return and the modal interval. The sample will consist of monthly returns between 2000 and 2012.

The arithmetic time-series mean monthly nominal return was 0.8 percent. The time-series median monthly nominal return

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