Christopher Lee

Long/short equity, long-term horizon, consumer goods, food
Christopher Lee
Long/short equity, long-term horizon, consumer goods, Food
Contributor since: 2011
In hindsight, I can understand removing Deferred Tax Liabilities from Total Liabilities in my Net Debt calculation. If you did that, Total Equity Value would be $4.7 billion or $61/share. So, the argument that MSG is "fairly valued" still stands IMO.
For the Net Debt calculation, I used: Total Liabilities - Cash and Cash Equivalents
While you are right in that MSG has no long-term debt, they have accounts payable, employee related and "other accrued liabilities", defined benefit and deferred tax liabilities on their balance sheet.
Total liabilities totaled 1,253,279. While cash was 277,913 and restricted cash 8,413.
I guess there are differing opinions as what counts as debt for this purpose:
Sorry it's not clear. I used the Forbes valuation and have it at $543 million- it's under "Stadium" in the Sports section image.
The NYC City Council did recently vote to have the Garden moved in 10 years in order to make improvements on Penn Station, so not sure how that's gonna play out.
Was Alaska (ALK) included in your analysis of the industry? No labor issues, much higher margins and a stronger balance sheet than UAL and others. Not to mention that its consistently adding capacity while bigger players are cutting (and still continues to maintain record high load factors). Seems like this mid-cap stock is consistently left out of overall discussions of the airline industry- and that's unfortunate because it's still reasonably valued and has upside.
Graph has been updated.
Of course, it depends on personal preference. I'm a fan of both.
Apparently, Caribou was rated the #1 Ethiopian coffee by Consumer Reports in 2011. According to Coffee Review, Caribou gets a 92 rating compared to Starbucks' 87.
Hi Colin,
Thanks for the article, as well as link to mine on ALK! Like I mentioned in my piece, ALK is a clear leader in customer service- something that the other airlines take for granted, as you note.
I agree that the airline industry is generally one to avoid (variable fuel costs, tough margins, heavy competition, unions). However, I strongly believe that Alaska is trading well below it's fair value- especially when compared to the rest of the industry. It's forward P/E is 6.80...much cheaper than the bigger players. It has the industry's highest margins, return on invested capital...and has consistently added capacity throughout the past decade. While other airlines are barely profitable, Alaska has found ways to become even stronger these past few years- and I expect that to continue. Alaska is a value play, but the company should also outpace the industry in terms of bottom line growth.