Seeking Alpha

Christopher Mahoney

 
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  • Now Is The Time To Buy Stocks, Not Sell Them
    Sun, Aug. 3 40 Comments

    Summary

    • The market selloff was prompted by noise rather than real data.
    • On a YoY basis, the signals remain in range.
    • There is no call for higher bond yields.
    • Stocks remain cheap to bonds.
  • A Brief Note On The Second Quarter
    Wed, Jul. 30 TBT, TLT, TMV 9 Comments

    Summary

    • Both nominal and real growth remain subdued.
    • There are no signs of acceleration.
    • The bond market has over-reacted.
  • Janet Yellen: The Manchurian Candidate?
    Mon, Jul. 28 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Both the Right and Left see Yellen as a radical departure from her predecessors.
    • But she is just another Bernanke and she won’t upset the apple cart.
    • We can expect to see nothing radical coming out of the FOMC in the foreseeable future.
  • Bond Yields Don't Rise When The Fed Tightens Prematurely
    Thu, Jul. 17 19 Comments

    Summary

    • Many pundits are predicting stronger growth and higher bond yields, but they are wrong.
    • The FOMC is withdrawing stimulus in the face of slowing growth.
    • The outlook is for low money growth, low inflation, low nominal growth and low bond yields.
    • Low bond yields support high PE ratios.
  • Ignore The June Employment Data
    Thu, Jul. 3 27 Comments

    Summary

    • The June employment numbers are noise.
    • Employment growth remains slow.
    • There is little risk of an inflation shock.
  • The Equity Risk Premium Is Still High
    Thu, Jul. 3 SPY, IEF 10 Comments

    Summary

    • The stock market remains attractively valued.
    • The equity risk premium remains high by historical standards.
    • The size of the premium reflects the low yields on offer in the bond market.
  • Draghi's Latest Announcement Is Another Big Nothing
    Sat, Jun. 7 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Another "growth package" from the ECB.
    • No effective policy to spur money growth.
    • Eurozone inflation and growth remain out of reach.
  • The FOMC Is Plotting 'Normalization'
    Sun, May. 25 DIA, SPY, QQQ 71 Comments

    Summary

    • The Fed intends to “normalize” monetary policy and reduce the size of its balance sheet.
    • There would appear to be no opposition on the FOMC to this objective.
    • The FOMC doves have flown the coop.
    • The outlook is for low bond yields and high equity multiples.
  • Why Bond Yields Are Falling
    Thu, May. 15 SPY, AGG, BOND 22 Comments

    Summary

    • Bond yields have been falling since January.
    • This has nothing to do with monetary stimulus.
    • Falling yields signal declining inflation and growth expectations.
    • Stocks are the only option for today’s investor.
  • Bond Prices Rise As Fed Tapers - Markets Perplexed!
    Wed, May. 7 PLW, GOVT, SPY 18 Comments

    Summary

    • Bond yields are falling despite the Fed’s decision to taper QE.
    • This is because QE has not affected the economy.
    • Falling bond yields are not bearish for stocks.
  • Implications Of Weak Growth For Financial Assets And Monetary Policy
    Wed, Apr. 30 AGG, BOND, BND 8 Comments

    Summary

    • The economy is flirting with recession.
    • This is bullish for bonds and stocks, and bearish for precious metals.
    • It will take more bad news for the Fed to reverse course.
  • Implications Of Deflation Risk For Stock Prices
    Sun, Apr. 13 26 Comments

    Summary

    • The possibility of deflation poses a risk to current stock market valuation.
    • Inflation is falling and the risk of a deflationary episode is growing.
    • Deflation is a monetary phenomenon caused by inadequate money growth.
    • The Fed appears to be unable or unwilling to raise the rate of inflation to its targeted level.
  • Weak Inflation Supports Current Equity Prices
    Mon, Apr. 7 SPY, QQQ, DIA 27 Comments

    Summary

    • High P/E ratios do not signal an overvalued equity market.
    • Multiples are high, because bond yields are low.
    • Bond yields are not depressed by the Fed's bond buying.
    • Bond yields are likely to remain low, given the inflation outlook.
  • NY Fed Paper Says That Stocks Are Still Cheap
    Sun, Mar. 30 DIA, SPY, QQQ 58 Comments

    Summary

    • The ERP is still close to its all-time high set in July.
    • Stocks are still a buy.
    • But don't buy stocks if you expect higher inflation.
  • Valuing The Bull Market
    Fri, Mar. 28 AGG, BOND, BND 21 Comments

    Summary

    • One school believes that equities can be valued without reference to bond yields and suggests the market is overvalued.
    • Another school believes that equity yields should be compared with the risk-free rate and suggests that it is undervervalued.
    • A lot depends on the outlook for bond yields.
  • The Outlook For Stocks And Bonds: Still Bullish
    Mon, Mar. 24 SPY, TLT Comment!

    Summary

    • The overall macro picture is one of weak money and credit growth.
    • Bond yields have overshot inflation and will decline.
    • Stocks remain attractive and there is still room for prices to rise.
  • What Are Puerto Rican Bonds Worth?
    Tue, Feb. 18 AGG 30 Comments
  • More On Puerto Rico
    Wed, Feb. 12 MUB, PZA, MUNI 5 Comments
  • Puerto Rico's Cash Crisis
    Mon, Feb. 10 MUNI 10 Comments
  • The Selloff Is Rational
    Wed, Feb. 5 SPY, DIA, IWM 7 Comments
  • Puerto Rico On The Brink Of Default
    Sat, Jan. 25 MUB, PZA, MUNI 14 Comments
  • The Post-Crash Credit Contraction Is Over
    Wed, Jan. 22 16 Comments
  • My 2014 Predictions: Still Bullish
    Fri, Jan. 3 SPY, SH, DIA 3 Comments
  • 3rd Quarter Growth: Please Ignore The Blip
    Dec. 29, 2013 TIP, SPY, QQQ 2 Comments
  • Bitcoin: The Future Of An Illusion
    Dec. 2, 2013 UUP, UDN, DBV 78 Comments
  • The Fed's October Minutes: Embracing Defeat
    Nov. 22, 2013 PLW, GOVT, TRSY 9 Comments
  • The Treasury Bond Remains The Queen Of Debt Securities
    Oct. 29, 2013 TLT 3 Comments
  • Bearish Scenarios Lack Credibility
    Oct. 21, 2013 SPY 8 Comments
  • Yellen Can't Change Fed Policy
    Oct. 9, 2013 TLT 12 Comments
  • Forget The Debt Ceiling: Stock Prices Are Very Low
    Oct. 8, 2013 SPY, DIA 17 Comments
  • The Debt Ceiling Is Not Lehman
    Oct. 4, 2013 DIA, SPY 16 Comments
  • Mr. Market Is Yawning
    Oct. 1, 2013 SPY 7 Comments