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Christopher Mahoney

 
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  • John Mauldin On The Yen: A Philosphical Disagreement [View article]
    So many Austrians, so few monetarists, and no Keynesians at all.
    Dec 10, 2014. 10:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • John Mauldin On The Yen: A Philosphical Disagreement [View article]
    The yen is not collapsing. It is being depreciated by the BoJ as an element of its inflation-targeting policy. This is not a market phenomenon.
    Dec 10, 2014. 09:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Do Central Banking And 'Twerking' Have In Common? [View article]
    "Back then, under chairman William McChesney Martin Jr., the Fed ran much tighter monetary policy."
    That is not true. Money growth was faster in the Sixties than it has been lately.
    Dec 9, 2014. 09:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prepare For The Coming Economic Boom [View article]
    In the world described by the Quantity Theory, there is a God button: M. Admittedly, V is not constant, but it can be overcome with enough M. PQ (aka, NGDP) is entirely within the Fed's control. That is the whole point of monetarism. Any central bank can inflate if it wants to.
    Dec 9, 2014. 12:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prediction Penance [View article]
    Yes! The important thing is intellectual honesty. Make clear numerical predictions, and then evaluate your performance. And when you are wrong, don't blame the data--blame your model, and correct it.
    Dec 9, 2014. 12:32 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prepare For The Coming Economic Boom [View article]
    Yes. But my point is that the DJIA has no discernible political affinity. What it wants is high and predictable nominal growth. The party of the president doesn't matter unless he is a Leninist.
    Dec 8, 2014. 04:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prepare For The Coming Economic Boom [View article]
    Why don't people also look for bullish Black Swans, like the end of Harry Reid, or sustained real growth, or upside earnings surprises? Black swans must go both ways. The greatest black swan in history was the election of the radical leftist FDR, who doubled the stock market in one year. And the incumbent marxist muslim, who has almost tripled the market since his inauguration. Which top-hat wearing capitalist predicted that? Be bullish on American capitalism!
    Dec 7, 2014. 11:28 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Flawed Analysis Of What Ails The Economy [View article]
    This reminds me of 1930:
    Europe now:
    http://bit.ly/15XG0p4
    US in 1930:
    http://bit.ly/15XGmvQ
    Dec 7, 2014. 02:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Flawed Analysis Of What Ails The Economy [View article]
    The eurozone is not in a liquidity trap. A liquidity trap is when monetary stimulus fails to affect demand. The eurozone is in an intentionally designed depression, similar to 1930-33 in the US and 1992-2010 in Japan, caused by a disinflationary monetary policy. Money growth has been kept at a disastrously low level, and prices have begun to fall in southern Europe. I wish people would pay more attention to the actual data and less attention to tendentious "analysis". The data, seen in isolation from "analysis", paint a picture of a planned depression:
    Money growth:
    http://bit.ly/1BqCHDQ
    Spain CPI:
    http://bit.ly/1BqE45g
    Monetary base:
    http://bit.ly/1BqE2dP
    Credit growth:
    http://bit.ly/1BqETuQ
    Dec 7, 2014. 11:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Flawed Analysis Of What Ails The Economy [View article]
    I don't mean violent revolution; I meant political revolution in the form of the rise of rightist parties such as UKIP, FN, AfD, PVV, Northern League, etc. The European countries where violence has played a role have been few: France and Greece.
    Dec 7, 2014. 11:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prepare For The Coming Economic Boom [View article]
    MV = PQ
    Dec 7, 2014. 09:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prepare For The Coming Economic Boom [View article]
    NGDP growth is entirely a function of monetary policy: MV = PQ. Demographics are entirely irrelevant.
    Dec 7, 2014. 09:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prepare For The Coming Economic Boom [View article]
    Yes, in a cross-cultural sense. Stone age economies underperform advanced economies. But, within the advanced cohort, M policy controls growth.
    Dec 3, 2014. 09:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prepare For The Coming Economic Boom [View article]
    Your assumption is extreme. In fact Canadians are active economic actors who respond to incentives.
    Dec 3, 2014. 09:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Information In Interest Rates [View article]
    Given that the expected return from equities has been stable around 8% (Damodaran), the lower the risk-free rate, the higher the equity premium, which remains above 5%. The stock market is reflecting both the wide return differential, plus the fact that earnings and dividends are growing while bond yields are fixed. Bond prices may rise further, but bond yields are just awful.
    Dec 2, 2014. 06:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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