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Christopher Wallace  

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  • Time To Take Profits In Gilead [View article]
    It has been a great ride and it has to stop somewhere. I would not be too surprised if the author is correct.
    Sep 21, 2015. 07:48 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Without Much Fanfare COMEX Available Gold Drops To Lowest Levels On Record [View article]
    Thanks Hebba for the (as usual) in-depth research and clear presentation. The thesis has intuitive appeal, but, and this is a big BUT, there does not appear to be any correlation looking at the historical charts you have provided between low registered holdings and a bottom in gold prices. Intuitively, that does not make sense, but it is what it is. Any explanation? Any reason why "this time is different"?
    Sep 6, 2015. 12:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The New York Times Has Only Scratched The Surface On BofI Holding... [View article]
    "Can anyone help us understand how the accounting worked on this loan?"

    In looking at your description of Loan C it would appear that the borrower provided a second mortgage on condo referenced as additional collateral for the $1.61 mil loan. As you did not provide the value of the condo or the other lien on it, it is impossible to tell if there was sufficient residual equity to take the total LTV down below 80%. Just that BOFI says it did. So to make your point stick, I guess you would have to say that BOFI is lying.
    Sep 3, 2015. 01:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Market Peak Is In [View article]
    We have had 6 full years of a bull market. A peak in prices is overdo. This is a very bi-furcated market with some sectors having risen markedly (healthcare, technology and momentum names) and others done terribly (base metal miners). I think the author's premise is sound and I would likely take a simplified approach and exit or short the very high beta names and overweight the deep value plays. A riskier strategy, but I am more focused on where to find capital appreciation opportunities than capital preservation strategies. Just my two cents...
    Sep 2, 2015. 11:48 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Bulls Rejoice As Stan The Man Joins The Ranks [View article]
    Druck may have unloaded, anything is possible. You don't trade a huge position like that for the short term. He would have a thesis which has not yet played out and one for which I cannot see any reason to abandon. We won't know for certain until next quarter, but I think it is reasonable to assume he still holds.
    Aug 26, 2015. 10:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Bulls Rejoice As Stan The Man Joins The Ranks [View article]
    What a lot of people rejoicing about Druck piling in on gold aren't paying attention to is the fact that only now is he back to break even. He bought 2.9 mil shares and paid $323 mil for them, or about $111 per GLD share. Certainly having him in the trade is nice comfort, but keep in mind so far this has not been a big win. I suspect it will someday, but it might be a bit early for the celebration.
    Aug 24, 2015. 11:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Global rout continues as Asian markets open lower [View news story]
    I suspect Monday will be down. But turn around Tuesday could be a bonanza for nimble day traders.
    Aug 24, 2015. 12:26 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buying The Fear And Hedging With TVIX [View article]
    Well written article; thank you for publishing it.
    Aug 23, 2015. 11:41 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SPDR Gold Shares Closes A Gap As The Fed Maintains Its Churn On Rate Hikes [View article]
    I understand now. Sounds like you have a core position in gold and were also doing some short term trading in the calls. Nice move!
    Aug 21, 2015. 02:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SPDR Gold Shares Closes A Gap As The Fed Maintains Its Churn On Rate Hikes [View article]
    Money in investing is not made (or lost) in the buying or the selling; it is made (or lost) in the holding. It does not appear to me that there was sufficient change in anything about your thesis to warrant selling.
    Aug 21, 2015. 10:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • North American Palladium: A Broken Dream Or The End Of A Long Journey For Shareholders [View article]
    Compliments to Fun Trading for having accurately called this from the beginning, for objectively stating his case and for putting up with a few very rude (and equally wrong) commenters while at all times maintaining civility.
    Aug 19, 2015. 04:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stillwater Mining: Deteriorating PGM Market Is Now In Plain Sight [View article]
    FT: I agree with your assessment and think it is time to return to SWC. It is always difficult to see the bottom until after the fact, but downside relative to upside at under $10, seems to favour the bulls.
    Aug 18, 2015. 09:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Still Not Short Gold? Here's Another Chance [View article]
    @contrarian: how would a chart of "paper" gold differ from a chart of "physical" gold?
    Aug 11, 2015. 01:18 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Long Run Exploration Sustain Its 30% Dividend Yield? [View article]
    The huge premium, basically 100%, to the trading price, cannot be considered giving the company away. But your second sentence is spot on: this is a terrible E&P landscape and unfortunately that is what a highly levered producer is worth in this market. The pull back in the stock price to $0.54 CDN shows the market sees major risk in this deal completing. I am not too sure that I agree fully with that sentiment. I do worry about most of their hedges coming off in 2016.
    Aug 8, 2015. 09:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Sell Gold And Switch Into Gold Miners [View article]
    jsIRA, that is because AISC has climbed commensurately with gold prices in the time frame you mention. Miners are no more profitable today at $1100 gold than they were at $350 gold 15 years ago. It seems that all of the cheap gold has been mined.
    Aug 7, 2015. 03:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment