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Christopher Wallace

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  • 7 Questions For Plug Power Investors [View article]
    Entirely incorrect. Edison, Ford, Monk (who founded Tesla), etc were/are all brilliant men who discovered something the rest of us did not. Buffet et al have proven their investment merit in buying low-valued, overlooked companies. Anyone who thinks PLUG is overlooked is fooling themselves, in the extreme.
    Apr 18 01:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 7 Questions For Plug Power Investors [View article]
    PLUG is hardly a secret. You are not discovering anything new here. This company is as main-stream and discovered as any.

    I am continually amazed at the bogus reasons being advanced for owning this company.
    Apr 17 10:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Stop Shorting Volatility Right Now [View article]
    Girogio: don't forget that volatility etfs buy front and deferred contracts, not the spot VIX. Therefore, correlation to the VIX, particularly on a day to day basis, can and should be, quite low.
    Apr 15 10:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 7 Questions For Plug Power Investors [View article]
    An eighth question would be: what evidence can the company point to that would indicate PLUG can generate a positive gross margin on a per unit basis? They have so far manufactured at a loss before overheads. Why would that change? Have they increased their price to WalMart? Has Ballard lowered their price to PLUG? Since none of those events have been press-released, I doubt that either are likely. Since PLUG is really just an assembler who buys out parts from others, one would therefore have to assume that considerable efficiencies have been derived in the assembly process. Is that really possible?
    Apr 14 12:00 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: I'm A Buyer On Monday - Yes, Again [View article]
    I think that for the most part, QTR has the BBRY thesis correct: large cash position will give very capable new CEO enough room to turn operations around. But I will play this stock in a different way. Even though he presented a chart, the author seems to be paying no heed to the technical picture; BBRY continues in a downtrend. I won't buy any stock at $7.50 if I think $7 or $6.50 is in the cards. But that is just me. The whole NASDAQ/tech world is in pain, and given their 5 years of wild joy that preceded, my guess is that pain will continue for weeks if not months. BBRY is not likely to buck that short term trend. Given the volatility in this stock, I think it is one that is worth waiting on and watching. For right now I do see QTR's point on value, but I do no see that as being a reason to buy...yet. When his chart has turned up, I will look at entering then. I invest based upon fundamentals, but I time those investments with help from the technicals. Just my personal style.
    Apr 14 11:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Uranium Energy: Significant Shareholder Dilution Ahead [View article]
    "This article seems a bit pessimistic. " Correct. The fact is that some stocks will go up and some down. It is important to read information about both. Itinerant has expressed a view here that is not favorable to this company, and in my opinion he has done so with both accuracy and clarity. His estimate of cash burn seems sound and his six month window to finance is well backed-up. Even if they somehow manage to cash up using debt (does not strike me as likely) that event would likely have a similarly depressing effect on the stock price, other things equal, as any new debt financing is likely to be expensive for this issuer. And I cannot imagine shareholders wanting to see even more debt on this balance sheet.

    Shelf registrations are often for amounts much larger than the company intends to raise, so I would not put too much on the number in the S3. It is the cash position that will really drive the amount of financing, and when, and it would make sense for them to raise at least one year's worth of cash needs the next time they go to market. The analysis here seems correct: that there are better places for your uranium investment dollars. If that is being pessimistic, so be it. It is still probably good advice.
    Apr 9 10:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The world needs to get ready for the next nuclear plant accident [View news story]
    There is lots of room for lots of different power generation: solar, nuke, gas, oil, hydro, fuel cells, lithium, etc. They all have their place and most likely they all will have their place. To say that nuke is going away because of reactor dangers is wrong; just as wrong as to say solar is going away due to cost, or oil to peak oil theories, etc. (Coal might be going away...) They will all be around for the rest of my life time. The secret here is to buy them at the right time. And U at $35 seems like a good buy, given supply/demand imbalances and costs to extract. Moving beyond the fear, it strikes me as a good value investment in an otherwise pricey market.
    Apr 8 10:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The world needs to get ready for the next nuclear plant accident [View news story]
    "The next nuclear accident" is by definition a black swan event. It is being treated here almost as an imminent certainty. I think that uranium investors need to be cognizant of the risk potential and not load everything they have in the sector. Black swans do happen; Fukishima, 3 Mile Island and Chernoble in my life time. But I would not want to bet money on the next one happening. Frankly, I see much more imminent risk in the current state of fuel cell stocks. There is more to investing than simply avoiding a out-of-the-blue catastrophe.
    Apr 6 06:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • North American Palladium: Is It Really Possible To Avoid Bankruptcy? [View article]
    That is a good reply. While Mr Lavelle may have made a decent argument for a rise in palladium, his comment completely over-looked the thrust of your article: that PAL's balance sheet is upside down and even if it were to survive BK, it would have such an enormous share roster that equity owners would have a such a small and diluted amount as to make their value dubious. As you pointed out, his arguments in favor of PAL totally overlook their mine capacity constraints as he looks at their mill. Perhaps PAL will find other ore bodies as he suggests. Lots of companies "might" find more ore too, and if they are less burdened with debt may I respectfully suggest they might make better investment prospects. As a producing mine, I think the author is correct when he surmises PAL is doomed. If they find a massive ore body or if they miraculously reduce their cash costs, perhaps then it will make a decent investment. But in today's reality both of those events are far from being the case.
    Apr 6 06:32 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • North American Palladium: Is It Really Possible To Avoid Bankruptcy? [View article]
    A good analysis and a more important one than commenter mkarpoff realizes. There are only 2 publicly traded, North American palladium producers: PAL and SWC. If you want to avoid the country and currency risks of SA and Russia then these two are your only choices. Many still tout PAL as a come-back story, and this piece importantly refutes the bull thesis. It serves as a good warning to investors to stay away.

    PAL is now mired in a level of debt that it cannot get out from under. The terms of the convertibles were largely driven by the dubious Crede Capital who bailed at the last moment. I had read somewhere that over 80% of the first tranche debentures converted already, and why not? By picking up the additional 37.5% of debenture principal by forcing the company to prepay 5 years of interest you dramatically lower the conversion price. Think about it: the conversion price was .635. But because you get 37.5% more debenture principal, your effective conversion price is only$0.39. The stock has traded above that level on almost every day since Jan 30. My guess is that most of the investors who took down tranche 1 have blown out their stock in the market and are riding the warrants for free. Nice piece of business for the company: they raised a much needed $34 million; nice piece of business for the debenture investors who got their money back in short order, made a nice quick gain and now have no cost upside with their warrants. So who was the loser in all this? The poor unsuspecting public (again) who have been buying the hype and trading the stock up and buying the converted shares. And they will be left holding the bag as they realize the impossibility of PAL's enormous debt repayments.
    Apr 6 12:35 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SAExploration: My Variant Point Of View [View article]
    SAEX had a great Q4 and, against my predictions, brought their ex-depreciation gross margin back up to over 30%. Kudos to SAEX management for doing that, and for substantially increasing the backlog. The rise in SG&A expense was the only disappointment that I saw in their numbers.

    The Q2 covenant that I commented about above will be close, and I would think close enough to negotiate some forbearance/forgiveness if they do not hit it to the penny. Management must be pleased to have 2013 behind them; 2014 looks positive for them.
    Apr 4 12:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arotech Caught Up In Fuel Cell Frenzy [View instapost]
    I now have a short position in ARTX, avg cost of $5.63.
    Apr 4 11:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Let's Talk About SAEX, Baby: Bull Vs. Bear Debate On SAExploration [View article]
    SAEX had a great Q4 and proved Mike correct by delivering a Q4 ex-depreciation margin of 32%. Well done Mike! I would like to acknowledge and congratulate Mike for his better call on SAEX and declare him the winner in this debate.
    Apr 4 10:56 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The FTC Will End Herbalife As We Know It [View article]
    "And I am sure the FTC will see it this way too. " No, you are not sure, you just hope the FTC will see it that way. No one can be certain how the FTC will go on this; it is a murky situation to say the least. QTR, like Ackman and Tilson, has presented a compelling case for some form of action against Herbalife. But Herbalife has been operating this way, with the FTC's knowledge for years. And that provides some reason to believe the FTC will allow them to continue. Everyone playing this ultimate battleground stock needs to recognize there are no certainties as to any outcome, just probabilities. And while most participants in this battle see the probabilities as strongly on their side, I see at as a closer race, with a likely middle-ground outcome: reform as opposed to outright shutdown; some modification to business practices as opposed to carry on as you were. For me, the bigger question is how is HLF priced relative to a middle of the road outcome? Probably a little rich here, given how much those modifications could curtail growth. I certainly would not buy this stock, but I see the short opportunity as having less upside than others do.
    Apr 4 10:17 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EXCO Resources: The Slog Continues. Next Stop Dividend Elimination [View article]
    That registration statement was filed at the end of January and merely permits the persons covered under the S3 to sell their shares at any time. It does not indicate an intention nor any immediate desire to do so. In fact, most, if not all of the shareholders covered under that S3 bought shares under the recent rights offering. Long story short: I would not read anything into that document.
    Apr 3 02:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment