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Christopher Wallace

 
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  • Investors Should Pay Attention To Ebola - It Is Getting Worse [View article]
    Ghoulish as it may appear to talk about profiting from investments affected by this tragedy, one also needs to keep in mind that it is reality, and one can certainly make an investment based upon an outcome he thinks might happen but certainly hopes won't happen. I am glad to see there was no mention of any of the Ebola drug stocks in this article. Those stocks are so full of hype right now and those poor investors don't or won't realize that drug approvals are lengthy processes and low probability and that the size of the Ebola epidemic does little to change that reality.

    TZOO and EXPE might also merit attention.
    Oct 28 11:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Let's Talk About SAEX, Baby: Bull Vs. Bear Debate On SAExploration [View article]
    Since my last post here gross profit margin, ex-depreciation has fallen from 31% to 27% to 22%. I "conceded" the debate when the margin came in at 31%. perhaps I was hasty to do so since the company has not been able to hold those margins. perhaps the margin will come back, perhaps not. Regardless, the margin volatility supports my thesis that there is substantial execution risk in their business. That coupled with a significant debt load should result in a discounted valuation. Market action in the past month seems to support that proposition. On the plus side, G&A expense is being well controlled. Backlog continues to keep revenue expectations at present levels or perhaps slightly lower. With the sharp decline in oil prices I expect to see sentiment worsen on this name. This is one to pick up when the market dumps it. I expect things to get worse here before they get better.
    Oct 27 03:00 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Different Case For Valuing Kandi [View article]
    Momentum is clearly coming out of this market, and fast. KNDI has now taken out the low end of my range. I suspect it will go lower still unless it blows away the projections.

    It is a new market now and I see a similar story unfolding for other momentum stocks.
    Oct 14 11:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • GoPro: 5 Factors To Push It Lower [View article]
    I have come to realize that this is an almost impossible thesis to execute. There is ostensibly no borrow, and the quoted borrowing cost (if you could get shares) is prohibitive. The premiums on the puts are astronomical. Between now and year end, I think GPRO has considerably more downside than upside. How to play that is a very difficult question. I continue to think my article has merit, but perhaps just as a theoretical exercise, rather than as a executable investment idea.
    Sep 23 11:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GoPro: 5 Factors To Push It Lower [View article]
    I agree with your logic: the change in market share numbers at year end will determine GoPro's dominance and whether anyone can threaten it. My guess is that with the quality of the names getting into the game and the lack of a deep moat that the numbers could slip for GoPro. But that is just a guess.
    Sep 22 01:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GoPro: 5 Factors To Push It Lower [View article]
    Jta, thanks for producing the stat of 47%market share. The point that I want to get across is that competition is growing in the category, and that GPRO's stock is behaving like it has no competition. Keep in mind that 53% of people choosing action cameras did not choose a GoPro. GoPro's market share deserves respect, but it is not the only player in the category, and the resulting competitive pressure deserves some respect as well.
    Sep 22 09:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • GoPro: Acknowledged Huge Risk With Potential Huge Rewards [View article]
    Where do you come up with your Oct 8 date for lock up coming due? I count December 23 as 180 days past IPO.
    Sep 21 06:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • OncoGenex: Phase III Trial In First Line Metastatic Prostate Cancer Fails, Now What? [View article]
    With the predicted equity raise now done and the stock below $3, time to get back in for a small punt.
    Sep 16 10:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tekmira Pharmaceuticals Is More Than Just A Short-Term Ebola Trade [View article]
    It is too bad, but far to much weight will be given to the outcome from one patient by investors. If the patient lives the stock will soar; if the patient dies the stock will crater. There is a reason that hundreds or thousands of cases are used in clinical trials. One case can hardly be considered definitive.
    Sep 12 10:38 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tekmira Pharmaceuticals Is More Than Just A Short-Term Ebola Trade [View article]
    Unfortunately the gist of this article is being missed by most investors: that TKMR is NOT just an Ebola stock. The current hype and over-trading in the stock is the result of this mis-perception. Too many quick buck chasers are in this stock and have pushed it well ahead of where it should be. TKMR remains on the long road to developing treatments for Ebola and other diseases. The tragedy in West Africa does little to change that. TKM Ebola and other experimental drugs may join GMapp is being used on humans during this crisis. Those drugs may, or may not work. But that won’t change the fact they will have to continue their trials and longer term studies on efficacy in order to get approval and eventual commercial sales. TKMR’s RNAi methodology shows promise as does their LNP delivery system. Eventually as they Ebola hype dies down, as it inevitably will, the current flock of traders will exit the name, re-storing more normal trading and valuations, and TKMR will become an interesting early stage biotech to hold for the long term. But right now its stock price seems to be supported more by the buzz of the moment, the illusions that the clinical trials process may be dispensed with, than the other valuable attributes the author describes in this article.
    Sep 10 10:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Recovery Not Assured But Definitely Possible [View article]
    Is that BBRY's next venture: to create a secure Cloud? On the surface, that seems to make sense.
    Sep 3 12:56 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Recovery Not Assured But Definitely Possible [View article]
    Michael, a good review of their recent device offering; the tables you have compiled are most helpful.

    As to their "long term solvency" I would offer that there is no worry on that front in next year. With $2.7 billion in cash and investments and with the stock price now above the conversion price on their debentures, it would take a substantial and enduring negative turn in ops to threaten their solvency.

    While the clear intent of your article was to focus on the Passport, I would also add that there is a decent chance that the new strategic focus on software and services could also be an earnings driver. I have been long since the beginning of August in anticipation of another good report on the 26th. Your article provides further support for my thesis.
    Sep 3 11:41 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tekmira Pharmaceuticals Is More Than Just A Short-Term Ebola Trade [View article]
    A good answer to infairness’ question. I really don’t think borders come into the issue. ZMApp itself is really no less Canadian than TKM-Ebola. Both are cross-border collaborations: ZMapp is a result of combined efforts from Mapp Biopharma (San Diego) and Dreyfus Inc (Toronto); the research that lead to its development was started at the University of Manitoba.

    ZMapp has been gathering recent headlines; TKMR could just as easily be next week’s headline, and after that the next biopharma to be working on a cure. This is the problem with TKMR’s surge of new shareholders: they are looking at short term issues in the multi-year road to developing a new drug. Use of ZMapp in no way infers that TKM-Ebola will not be used. These are very early days for both drugs. Keep in mind that at this point, none of us “investors” know anything at all about cost to manufacture either drug, availability of quantities; we know very little about safety in humans of either drug and we know nothing about efficacy in humans, outside of the handful of cases reported about ZMapp. Those claiming success or failure of either drug are making a false claim. The evidence simply has not yet been presented to make such proclamations.
    Sep 1 11:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Passport: Microsoft Surface Part Deux [View article]
    Cost reductions ARE an operating improvement. Revenue enhancement, which has eluded BBRY, is not the only form of improving operations. BBRY has the goal of reducing dependence on device revenue and focusing on software and service revenue. Cost-cutting as an important first step in getting the company in a proper financial position to implement its new strategy. I expect to see continued declines in Q over Q revenue but I would not say that alone qualifies as a lack of operational improvement.

    I don’t really see the comparison of Passport to Surface, but in any event, is it not a bit premature to be making any pronouncements, good or bad, given that it does not launch until next month?
    Aug 28 12:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tekmira Pharmaceuticals Is More Than Just A Short-Term Ebola Trade [View article]
    A good, informative article Karin. One thing I would like to query: I believe their trial with humans is a safety trial only on healthy humans, set up to determine if there may be any adverse effects when taken by humans as opposed to determining efficacy with infected patients. Do I have the correct understanding of that human trial?
    Aug 27 11:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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