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Christopher Wallace

 
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  • A Different Case For Valuing Kandi [View article]
    Thank you LTValue. Well said.
    Aug 17 11:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Different Case For Valuing Kandi [View article]
    "Long-term investors should not be deterred by these articles, especially when they come out a day before options expiration" Please understand that my intention is not to deter anyone from holding KNDI stock, not is it too encourage anyone to buy. My intention is to merely provide an alternative point of view, and then let investors use this as an addition to Gerald's article and other due diligence to make any investment decision of their own. A big part of my thesis is that I believe we are in the final throws of this long and very strong bull market for momentum names. If that party keeps going, I see no reason for KNDI to not participate; it is showing as good or better operating characteristics than many momentum names. If my timing is in the ballpark, then how companies are valued will change, as it did in 2000. My valuation methodology had little relevance in the preceding 5 years, and Mr. Klein's did, which I acknowledge in the body of the article. If the party does finally close down, investors can use this article to imagine how a different market may view KNDI and other momentum names. Option expiry was nothing to do with the timing of the publication of this. Timing was driven by when I read Gerald's piece and the speed of the editors at SA.
    Aug 16 01:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Different Case For Valuing Kandi [View article]
    Thank you Gerald for commenting and for writing your article. It will be interesting to follow KNDI over the next few years as both a company and as a stock. My article was actually meant to be an alternative point of view as opposed to a "rebuttal", as I think that there is always room for many points of view in the investment world. Regardless, I thank you for getting this interesting discussion started and I look forward to reading more of your work here at Seeking Alpha.
    Aug 16 12:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Different Case For Valuing Kandi [View article]
    BTW, while I have no position at this time, that is of course subject to change as conditions change.
    Aug 14 05:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Different Case For Valuing Kandi [View article]
    I did not see revenue fell Q over Q, I cited its rise. I stated that revenue fell for two quarters sequentially.
    Aug 14 03:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Different Case For Valuing Kandi [View article]
    If trying to value a company is futile, why are we all here?

    The answer is that the attempt is not futile, the answer is that there are many possible outcomes based upon a myriad of different assumptions and scenarios. Mr. Klein made his attempt based upon his assumptions ( a continued bullish momentum market and increase in revenue) and I made mine as stated above. As you stated, we very well may both be wrong. But that does not make our attempts futile. To have any chance at all of obtaining alpha, you must go through the process of trying to determine the present and future value of a business you are interested in. You will at times be right, and at others you will be wrong. The variation in outcome does not imply futility, it is what makes this game so challenging.
    Aug 14 11:18 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Different Case For Valuing Kandi [View article]
    Thar, thank you very much for your comment.

    And thank you for the invitation to join you in China in September. I think it is great that your group is headed over there to do primary due diligence on your investment. There is no substitute for getting face to face with the management and operations of a company you are invested in. I do hope that you will publish an article on your findings. I will decline your invitation as I will be travelling much of October and November so I have to stay here and try to make some money! But again, thank you for the kind invitation.

    As to my lack of position, it is what it is. I was previously short KNDI, at the time I published my previous article. I was also short several of the other stocks mentioned in that article. I covered that short a few months ago. As you can see from my value range, the mid-point is not that far below today's price and the upper end of the range quite close. This does not make for a attractive short investment here, in my humble opinion. I was motivated to write this article simply because I felt there was a valid position to be taken which says that momentum values are appropriate during the currency of a strong bull market but can lose their relevance at its end. Again, I take a lesson from the NASDAQ experience in 2000. If such a situation were to repeat, as it did with telecom and dot coms, then a different approach would be required. KNDI will be interesting to watch to see which scenario plays out.

    Finally, thank you for your kind words about my writing. I do hope that you write your novel - I am envious!

    I look forward to reading your article upon your return from China.
    Aug 14 10:12 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 'Fear Index' Vs. The 'Greed Index [View article]
    The most important part of investing in volatility instruments is to be able to distinguish between the cart and the horse. Directional changes in VIX have little or no power to portend directional changes in the S&P. But directional changes in the SP certainly give rise to significant value changes in VIX. Use whatever indicators you can to make a directional bet on S&P. Implement that bet, if you want to use leverage over the short term, through using volatility products.
    Aug 4 01:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Short Sellers And Seeking Alpha [View article]
    I have published articles here at Seeking Alpha advocating both long and short positions in various stocks. When advocating going long, comments to my articles reflect healthy debate and are for the most part quite civil. The same can generally be said about my bullish comments to other author's articles (unless of course we are talking about BBRY which attracts an unusual amount of vitriolic readers!). But where I have advocated a short position in a stock in an article, a familiar pattern emerges each time: ad hominem attacks of me, not my thesis; accusations of using my article to attempt to manipulate the market; an assumption that I am out to cause someone harm. This pattern is by no means limited to my articles, as other authors here can attest. The ad hominem I can get over quite easily, they just take up space and I can now recognize what is coming in the first line or two and skip the rest of the comment. As to manipulating the market, that is quite humourous. I have around 500 followers. I would love to flatter myself and think that enough of the world actually reads or cares about my articles to actually make a difference to the price of a stock. I have never written an article with the intent of harming another person; in fact my bearish articles will hopefully help others to avoid further losses in the stocks I have written about. I have not always got it right in my bullish articles, but I have yet to make a serious directional mistake in any of my bearish calls. But the bashing from the haters does get tiresome after a while. As a result I have not published anything here at SA for a few months. For me the fun of publishing here has been entering into serious, intellectual and thought-provoking debate. But when the civility goes, I lose my motivation.

    Penning accurately written and well researched short theses does a service to the investment community. I would do it more often, if not for the antipathy it unfortunately creates among many commenters.
    Aug 1 10:28 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Herbalife Revenues Materially Overstated? [View article]
    How long has this Gold Standard Guarantee been in place? If it has been around a while, would not there be a history of returns that would show up somewhere in their financial statement?
    Jul 30 09:21 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry's Chen Is 'Going Rogue' [View article]
    Daugherty: it's called trading. Have a look at a chart. These things jump around quite a bit. Also, some of us have limited capital and as other more timely opportunities arise, we allocate our limited resource to that opportunity, sometimes temporarily leaving a position we think has long term potential. I do it and I believe it is a fairly common practice.
    Jul 29 11:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry's Chen Is 'Going Rogue' [View article]
    I seem to have been the only one, but I took Chen's comment of no offers on his desk as a positive one. I do not want someone to take this company private today at a small premium to book value and at the early days of its turn around. While risks certainly remain, I believe the long term prospects for this company continue to be very bright, and made slightly brighter by the recent acquisition.

    As to QTR's trading activity in this stock, good for him if he is able to catch the small swings as well as the big ones. You really need to do some of that with these volatile names. My own position in BBRY is small at the moment but I intend to use this weakness to add. I think being quite long before next quarters earnings is a smart strategy.
    Jul 29 10:51 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Doomsday Prepping, Rocky Balboa, And Herbalife Earnings [View article]
    Good, sensible advice for HLF shorts. I intend to not follow it, however, given the rise in the tock so far today (+4.6% as of this writing). It remains good advice, but I am a bit late to implement it, I think. My intention is to add a small dollar investment in OTM puts with a Aug 16 expiry, on the belief that the rally from the "Ackman low" of over 30% is way overdone.
    Jul 28 11:07 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kandi Technologies' 10-Q Reveals Phantom Sales Growth And Other Serious Concerns [View article]
    Well said Illuminati. Ad hominem attacks are pointless; if you have a refutation for his thesis, state it and we can all learn.
    Jul 25 04:49 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Insanely Irresponsible Herbalife Bull Arguments Plaguing Wall Street [View article]
    @QTR: I agree with the premise of this article and I share your disgust with those managers who call the execs scumbags but still invest in their stock. It is not much better than pushing dope or abusing child labor: all are profitable and all are wrong. Their exercise of willful blindness will catch up to them some day.

    Tuesday's 25% rise in HLF (30% if you go from the AH lows) was the sort of market reaction I would have expected if Ackman had said he was throwing in the towel and cashing out of his position. 25% and $1 billion of market cap is a big move. His presentation, though perhaps not the sexy pot-boiler the market was expecting, certainly added to the short case in some measure and provided much for the regs to chew on. It is an irrational move in the stock and I will capitalize on it by buying more puts.
    Jul 24 01:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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