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Christopher Wallace  

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  • Volatility Surges 35% On Grexit Fears: It's Time To (Start) Shorting The VIX [View article]
    The problem with trying to play mean reversion in the VIX is that continuation moves can be huge when a major event is on the Grexit. Sunday's referendum will have a big impact on whether there is continuation or mean reversion in VIX. I think playing VIX right now, either long or short, is largely about Greece. In less eventful times, playing mean reversion in VIX would make more sense, to me.
    Jul 2, 2015. 10:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Extraordinary Skew - How Reward Outweighs Risk At Laredo Oil [View article]
    Daniel, quite correct. Also, as Stranded executes on its business plan, it will be able to access capital from sources other than Y, and this could then permit earlier profit distributions to LRDC. It will be interesting to see the next Y quarterly which should reveal how much further investment in Stranded they made in Q2.
    Jul 2, 2015. 10:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Future Of Uranium: 3 Major Takeaways From The 2015 World Nuclear Fuel Market Conference [View article]
    Loved the first half of your article and it is always great to read "primary" due diligence and to hear directly from the source as you did at the conference. Interesting thesis about government's not re-investing enough in their natural resources and using the revenues for other political agendas. But I thought the second half turned into a bit of an advertorial for UEC.
    Jun 26, 2015. 10:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Extraordinary Skew - How Reward Outweighs Risk At Laredo Oil [View article]
    snogreen: thanks for your comments on Alleghany; I only really began learning about them as I was researching this article. I hope that you are correct!
    Jun 24, 2015. 11:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Extraordinary Skew - How Reward Outweighs Risk At Laredo Oil [View article]
    Mark, the terms of the Stranded joint venture agreement are that ALL capital advanced by Alleghany together with all accrued preferred dividends (12%) have to be repaid before Laredo can collect its royalty. So not on a field by field basis, all of the money has to come back.

    Mark and snogreen, snogreen is technically correct in his comment but one has to keep in mind the fact that Alleghany is in the insurance business, not the oil E&P business. It is therefore highly unlikely they would reload the sales proceeds from a possible sale of Trans Re to Stranded. What is more likely is that if the UGD process is proven to be a big success, Stranded will source other sources of lower cost capital (such as the $250 million bank line they already have in place). They may also go public. I personally don't see Alleghany advancing much more money to this project as it is simply going to become to large a part of their portfolio. Insurers are all about controlling risk. $400 - $500 mil would be the max, but that is just a guess on my part.
    Jun 23, 2015. 10:18 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Long Run Exploration Sustain Its 30% Dividend Yield? [View article]
    I have not been following LRE that closely. I sold my shares back in Feb and bought the convertible debs. Smartest move I made this year. Since then the shares are down 40% and the debs are up 50%. Being in the debs means I don't need to watch things quite as closely. But, what I do know is that the balance sheet remains quite levered and current commodity prices are barely enough to keep them afloat. LRE is very sensitive to commodity pricing. A 10% rise in both oil and gas that was sustained would likely mean they are out of the woods. And a 10% fall would be a big problem for their balance sheet. Oil dropped further and stayed lower than I believed possible when I wrote this article. That event changed the thesis entirely.
    Jun 22, 2015. 10:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Extraordinary Skew - How Reward Outweighs Risk At Laredo Oil [View article]
    Ping, good catch, that should have read 9,300. I have submitted a correction. As to the $576 million and 22 million bbls from Teapot, both numbers are correct. But it is not a royalty. The US Government (through the Navy) has owned Teapot Dome for decades and has used it , in part, for research on oil reserves. So that is the net revenue received from extraction, it is not a royalty.

    MG2011 and Anonymous, thank you both for adding to the info on this topic.
    Jun 21, 2015. 01:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Extraordinary Skew - How Reward Outweighs Risk At Laredo Oil [View article]
    Thank you 1flaguy and Peter. I do intend on writing a follow up article once I can ascertain more information.

    I did speak with the CFO who was very helpful. He has a job to do, which is (in part) to make sure there is a level playing field in terms of disclosure. So he was pretty careful to stick to the script of what had been disclosed in the Qs, the Ks and the press releases. He did say that revealing more info could be prejudicial to their acquisition price on new lands (ie: the market would know they could pay more). He was very forthcoming about those things he could talk about, and very polite about those things he could not.
    Jun 20, 2015. 10:46 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • North American Palladium: A Broken Dream Or The End Of A Long Journey For Shareholders [View article]
    June 30 is now just 12 calendar days away, and only 8 trading days. The percentage return on a short at $0.05 should be very high, especially for an 8 day trade.
    Jun 18, 2015. 04:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Erin Energy: Questionable Characters At A Stratospheric Valuation [View article]
    That is a non-response. They did not refute one allegation nor point out a single "factual errors, misleading speculation and unwarranted inferences". Fail. Massive fail.
    Jun 17, 2015. 12:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Chesapeake Energy On Sell-Off Or Avoid Following Oppenheimer's Report? [View article]
    "By the way, weak energy prices never stays down more 12-24 months. Which believe it or not is short term pricing. "

    Have you seen uranium since 2011? Or nat gas from 08 to 12? Or coal?
    Jun 14, 2015. 03:56 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Many Ways To Win; SoMedia Networks' Growing Portfolio Of Large-Scale Trials [View instapost]
    Interesting story here. I am going to look further into this one. With todays' technology it is so easy to imbed video into digital publications that it just makes sense to use that medium to sell your product as opposed to old school text and picture. Thanks for publishing.
    Jun 10, 2015. 09:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Weakness Of UNG Continues [View article]
    I think nat gas will rally in H2, I don't know if this is the beginning or not. "The bottom is in for natural gas....again."

    I have my toes in the water via the producers. They seem even more beaten down than the commodity and look like perhaps a reasonable bet down here.
    Jun 9, 2015. 05:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Excellon Resources Still Fails To Excite Me [View article]
    Thanks very much, I appreciate your feedback.
    Jun 9, 2015. 12:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Excellon Resources Still Fails To Excite Me [View article]
    What are your thoughts now that the PEA has been released? The reduction in AISC is astonishing as is the 118% IRR and 1.9 year payback. There must be more tot the story than meets the eye and I would appreciate your input. Thank you in advance.
    Jun 8, 2015. 08:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment