Iamgold Corp. Looks Cheap At The Current Price [View article]
As Michael has said above, I agree that IAG is a strong contender in the gold space. I would add to the bullish case in this article the fact that IAG yields 4.7% and notwithstanding last years poorer results, covered that dividend 2x with operating cash flow. I believe that is the highest yield of any gold miner. Further, there has been substantial insider buying (notable large purchases by the CFO as well as several directors) since the announcement of the cost reduction program earlier this spring.
BlackBerry Short Interest Ended March Little Changed And Updated Outlook For The Stock [View article]
Michael, I have long felt that MSFT would be interested in BBRY. Would give them an instant and impressive entree into the phone market. I know you have written on MSFT. Is it at all likely?
Why Surface Matters To Microsoft And Should Matter To You [View article]
Terrific article, thanks for publishing it. Can you provide some further color on how you came up with the 40% margin and the sales forecasts of 3 million and 10 million units respectively? Thank you.
Politics And The Sequester: Near-Term Impacts For The Stock Market [View article]
Mike Down Under, thanks for your comment. I am glad to hear the article prompted you to make an investment in VXX which made you such a nice profit in such a short period!
My intention in writing the article was to get investors to consider buying VXX to hedge a portfolio that may be vulnerable to the effects of the politics being played with the upcoming Sequester. My belief at the time of writing was that one should contemplate holding VXX through March 1, at least, and then possibly re-calibrate their decision based upon the outcome in the House. That intention has not changed. But far be it from me to give investment advice, particularly about the action of a security on a specific day. So I will respectfully decline to opine on initiating a new VXX trade at tomorrow's open. What I will say, in the hopes of being constructive, is that I continue to be long volatility, but whether or not anyone else chooses to do the same should be the result of the same as what I did prior to initiating the trade: a thorough due diligence. You have brought up several valid points: the Italian election, the level of the US stock market near recent highs and the fact that, notwithstanding recent sharp gains, the VIX remains below historically average levels. Those factors, in addition to the issues raised by sequestration discussed in the article, motivate me to continue to be long VXX. I would further point out that the level of contango which I referred to in my earlier comment has come in from 60 cents to just 26 cents. Thanks again for your comment and good luck and good trading!
Herbalife: What Exactly Is In Peter Vander Nat's Paper And Why Bill Ackman Is Wrong [View article]
ARP is irrelevant to HLF's gross margin calculation. HLF sells to its distribution network and computes gross profit from there. The distribution network resells through its levels to the final consumer who pays the ARP, which has no impact on HLF gross margin. Ackman's point about ARP was that it was unrealistically high compared to the peer group he investigated. HLF countered his assertion by pointing out he priced the same quantity for each of the peer group (if I recall correctly, a 2 oz serving) whereas HLF took the recommended serving quantity, which differs among the group, and computed price per recommended serving. That put HLF roughly in the middle of the pack.
Ask Russ: How Bad Is The Sequester? Is Hyperinflation A Certainty? [View article]
Actually the sequester number is $110 billion/year split equally with $55 B coming out of defense and $55 B coming out of non-defense. Not devastating on its own, but when the recovery is so fragile, it will be noticed. Also, with the stock market up for 4 consecutive years and for 8 consecutive weeks or 15% this year, that has the potential to kick the market down off of its tenuous perch. Regardless of the magnitude of the number, if sequestration happens next Friday, it will have the added effect of making the US government look silly and ineffective, stuck in gridlock, favoring politics over results. Not the sort of stuff to inspire investment or take on risk.
Outflows from the GLD hit $1B in January and have accelerated in February, now summing to $3.1B YTD. Bulls may take heart - the last time the GLD suffered outflows was mid-summer 2012, just ahead of a big rally in gold prices. AUM in GLD was $72B at January's end. [View news story]
Another technical sign that it is starting to bottom.
Politics And The Sequester: Near-Term Impacts For The Stock Market [View article]
Hi yfiink, that one is much more difficult for me to get my head around. A continuation of tax-and-spend is inflationary and an implementation of Sequester or most of it is likely to subdue inflation. Certainly the metals have been hit hard and look very oversold, which is likely to be the over-arching factor.
Politics And The Sequester: Near-Term Impacts For The Stock Market [View article]
Pete: you are right, I am sure there are more focused ways of Sequester investing. Shorting defense stocks is a likely target or (if you can execute) shorting defense etfs ITA, DEF and PPA. While the thrust of my article was more on the portfolio hedge side of things, I can certainly see merit in making some short term trades ahead of next week. Thanks for your comment.
Buy Signal: Pessimism Among Gold Miners Hits Extreme [View article]
Lots of different indicators you can use. The bullish percent index, as the article demonstrates, has a great track record at calling turning points in the gold miners. I have learned to be patient and wait for it to give a signal. MACD xover is also good at generating signals on the miners.
Buy Signal: Pessimism Among Gold Miners Hits Extreme [View article]
Bullish percent index has fallen down to 6.67%. Not a typo. Sentiment is now extremely bearish. I am looking for a bottom to be made in here soon. A move up in the bullish percent index would be a buy signal for the gold miners.
Politics And The Sequester: Near-Term Impacts For The Stock Market [View article]
I agree with your comment Seth, particularly when VXX was used as a speculation. Though the main thrust of my article was to use it to protect a portfolio from a large adverse event resulting from politics. I have used it from time to time as a spec and found your observations to be accurate. Thanks for your comment.
Politics And The Sequester: Near-Term Impacts For The Stock Market [View article]
Thanks for your comment Rubenov. You are obviously referring to the well known and frankly over-discussed issue of negative roll yield that futures in contango, or positively-sloped forward curves, suffer from. VXX should be avoided for long durations but is certainly acceptable for more than day-trades. The week between now and the end of Sequester being a case in point. It can be a particularly effective instrument when it has made multi-year lows and when contango is lower than usual, such as is presently the case.
High Levels Of Stock Market 'Froth' [View article]
A good article and pointing out some of the current danger signs in a lucid style, devoid of the usual ranting that other bearish pieces often have. Alg: I don't think that chartists forget fundamentals, they simply ignore them. The author acknowledged your point that does not necessarily imply an impending retreat. There are always two sides to every market thesis and I think the bear case is well expressed here.
Iamgold Corp. Looks Cheap At The Current Price [View article]
BlackBerry Short Interest Ended March Little Changed And Updated Outlook For The Stock [View article]
Why Surface Matters To Microsoft And Should Matter To You [View article]
Politics And The Sequester: Near-Term Impacts For The Stock Market [View article]
Politics And The Sequester: Near-Term Impacts For The Stock Market [View article]
My intention in writing the article was to get investors to consider buying VXX to hedge a portfolio that may be vulnerable to the effects of the politics being played with the upcoming Sequester. My belief at the time of writing was that one should contemplate holding VXX through March 1, at least, and then possibly re-calibrate their decision based upon the outcome in the House. That intention has not changed. But far be it from me to give investment advice, particularly about the action of a security on a specific day. So I will respectfully decline to opine on initiating a new VXX trade at tomorrow's open. What I will say, in the hopes of being constructive, is that I continue to be long volatility, but whether or not anyone else chooses to do the same should be the result of the same as what I did prior to initiating the trade: a thorough due diligence. You have brought up several valid points: the Italian election, the level of the US stock market near recent highs and the fact that, notwithstanding recent sharp gains, the VIX remains below historically average levels. Those factors, in addition to the issues raised by sequestration discussed in the article, motivate me to continue to be long VXX. I would further point out that the level of contango which I referred to in my earlier comment has come in from 60 cents to just 26 cents. Thanks again for your comment and good luck and good trading!
Herbalife: What Exactly Is In Peter Vander Nat's Paper And Why Bill Ackman Is Wrong [View article]
Ask Russ: How Bad Is The Sequester? Is Hyperinflation A Certainty? [View article]
Outflows from the GLD hit $1B in January and have accelerated in February, now summing to $3.1B YTD. Bulls may take heart - the last time the GLD suffered outflows was mid-summer 2012, just ahead of a big rally in gold prices. AUM in GLD was $72B at January's end. [View news story]
Politics And The Sequester: Near-Term Impacts For The Stock Market [View article]
Politics And The Sequester: Near-Term Impacts For The Stock Market [View article]
Buy Signal: Pessimism Among Gold Miners Hits Extreme [View article]
Buy Signal: Pessimism Among Gold Miners Hits Extreme [View article]
Politics And The Sequester: Near-Term Impacts For The Stock Market [View article]
Politics And The Sequester: Near-Term Impacts For The Stock Market [View article]
High Levels Of Stock Market 'Froth' [View article]