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Christopher Wallace  

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  • GoviEx Uranium: 97% Price Drop Leaves Stock Excessively Discounted [View instapost]
    Resource increased by 13%, making the metrics in my article further under-valued.
    Apr 24, 2015. 10:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • North American Palladium: A Broken Dream Or The End Of A Long Journey For Shareholders [View article]
    Great coverage of this sad story right from the very beginning, FT. Your observations have been spot on since we both began looking at this almost 2 years ago. This is vindication for all of those who derided your observations and predictions. Good on you.
    Apr 21, 2015. 11:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas: Injections And Higher Prices, Go Figure... [View article]
    A humble trader is a rare commodity - kudos to you!

    I am a longer term investor and I think that we are nearing the bottom in NG for this cycle. The rig count is extremely low and importantly, the oil rig count has for the first time in my memory dropped 50%, thereby taking off a lot of potential associated gas. These declines in primary source will eventually show up in production declines. I believe the potential upside in the price of gas is multiples of the potential downside. Hard for me to imagine $2, easy for me to see $3 or $4 in the coming 12 months.

    And North America's first LNG shipments should happen later this year which will start to create a more global price for gas and less of a local regional anomaly.
    Apr 20, 2015. 12:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GoviEx Uranium: 97% Price Drop Leaves Stock Excessively Discounted [View instapost]
    Govind purchased an additional 500,000 shares and Daniel Major another 19,500 this week. I have been adding as well.
    Apr 17, 2015. 10:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EIA Predicts Natural Gas Production Starts Declining In May [View article]
    Very good article. The tide appears to be turning and NG should catch a bid over the balance of this year.
    Apr 15, 2015. 09:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GoviEx Uranium: 97% Price Drop Leaves Stock Excessively Discounted [View instapost]
    Interesting to see the volume pick up over the last 2 days. Govind Friedland bought 44,000 shares on April 6.
    Apr 8, 2015. 12:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Flyer's Basket Strategy: Bought 300 Long Run Exploration At USD $2.69 [View article]
    I sold my shares a while back when I first wrote about LRE and replaced them with the convertible debentures. I am down about 15% on the debs but I would be down over 50% on the stock. LRE's higher gas exposure is likely to be its saving grace. I predict the North American gas price will recover before the world oil price. But with such a large debt load, that recovery needs to happen soon.
    Apr 3, 2015. 11:17 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • GoviEx Uranium: 97% Price Drop Leaves Stock Excessively Discounted [View instapost]
    Thanks Marquez. Any broker should be able to find/trade them. Here is the quote from the TMX website:
    Mar 31, 2015. 02:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alberta Oilsands Update [View article]
    I wonder if the class action lawyers are going to jump on this?
    Mar 24, 2015. 09:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Alberta Oilsands Update [View article]
    On Feb 9, I wrote this in my comment above: "My guess is this will trade at a discount to cash, the degree will reflect the market's view of management. "

    At $0.11 that is a 31% discount to cash about to be in the bank. That is a 58% discount to total book value. The market has stated pretty clearly their view of management.

    Now they have about 60% of the cash they thought they would and so they will press the reset button. Could be year end before they announce any "deal"; another 9 months of board fees for very questionable benefit to the shareholders.

    Dividending out the money, or doing a substantial issuer bid, whatever is more tax efficient, and selling off the other assets is the intelligent thing to do. Carrying on this business is not intelligent.
    Mar 21, 2015. 11:16 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil Rig Efficiency Will Fuel A Deeper And Longer Price Decline Than Many Expect [View article]
    Reading this article today (March 18) shows just how prescient you were back on Jan 13. Well done.
    Mar 18, 2015. 10:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alberta Oilsands Update [View article]
    I have talked with management and they only submitted invoices for amounts that qualify under the regs so they are confident in the number. There is no allocation for overheads in that number. Seldom in life do you get all that you want so some discount seems appropriate but a 65% recovery strikes me as too extreme. I would expect the discount to be more on the order of 10 - 20%, but that is pure guesswork.

    The market is pricing this stock at such a discount because we all have doubts; doubts about the whole claim process because so little info has been put forth (12 press releases since announcing the claim). Doubts about the other assets, which have received a whole 2 sentences of attention in those 12 press releases. And doubts about management; their track record here is unimpressive and the market clearly has doubts about any deal they might do with the money. They have done nothing to allay any of these doubts.
    Mar 9, 2015. 09:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Alberta Oilsands Update [View article]
    "The Alberta government will release its budget for 2015 on March 26th. Do you think this has any effect on when AOS gets reimbursed?"

    A good question but unfortunately I doubt that it will have an effect. If it were a traditional budget expense, that would have impact because with government expenditures, typically, if you don't spend it in this fiscal year you can't ask for new funds. But this is not a discretionary or ordinary budget item; it is a matter of law. It is not like other budget items where you spend it one fiscal year and then ask for more for the next.

    I have heard others speculate that the government will want this off their books before going into the next fiscal year. I am not sure I agree with that logic myself, but I can hope!
    Mar 8, 2015. 11:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alberta Oilsands Update [View article]
    The delay has been in completing the audit process. It baffles my mind that it could take this long but it has. AOS first submitted their claim back in November of 2013. Alberta made requests for more documentation and back in Feb of 2014 AOS told me the process was substantially complete, that it was a relatively simple claim. Then, in a subsequent call in the fall of 2014 AOS told me they were still going through the audit process and had submitted over 7,000 invoices. Someone has bungled the process. The largest energy companies in Canada can complete a full audit of their financial statements in less than three months; how can this possibly take so long?? I am sure that blame lies with both parties, but I find it difficult to accept that AOS did a complete or thorough job with their application if the government auditors are still making requests more than a year after the original submission. But if none of the other claimants have received anything, perhaps that lets AOS off of the hook.
    Mar 8, 2015. 11:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 2015: What Is Oil Really Telling Us? [View article]
    A sober look at most of the main leading indicators. Very comprehensive. Perhaps the only major indicator left out was the yield curve. Well done.
    Mar 7, 2015. 10:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment