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Christopher Wallace

 
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  • Delphic Icahn tweet sends Herbalife higher [View news story]
    You don't suppose that Carl was just teasing him? If you want to get the goad of an investment banker, just tell him you are working on a deal that he is not in. Quite possible that Icahn's comment was made entirely in jest and has no element of truth in it. In event, to speculate on a stock based one single, cryptic tweet strikes me as the height of irrationality.
    Aug 27 01:35 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kandi Technologies higher on report of China EV charging investment [View news story]
    They said the same thing about natural gas. Remember the "Pickens Plan" and the super highway or whatever it was called that was going to have nat gas filling stations everywhere? Hydrocarbon fuels will surely be replaced, but I think one needs to be careful about which solution will "inevitably" replace it.
    Aug 26 01:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Short Sellers And Seeking Alpha [View article]
    And our little exchange just proves my point. You brought up your point of view and I brought up the counter-point which you have now countered. Readers can either agree with my view and continue to come to the site or take up your side of the argument and leave Seeking Alpha and get their investment news/opinions from Reuters/Bloomberg/Forb... or wherever. We are both proving the process works.
    Aug 26 11:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Short Sellers And Seeking Alpha [View article]
    The SA Editors are doing the right thing by suggesting that YOU write an article. Seeking Alpha is meant to be an open forum of user-contributed information and opinion. When you suggest there are errors of fact in an article, SA Editors would have to fact-check your assertions. If they are going to fact check your assertions, why not fact check each article? Because that would then cease to be a user-based forum and would become like any other investment-based periodical where a single body (the editors) determine content. What makes SA unique, and, in my opinion, valuable, is the open forum aspect where content is selected and provided by actual investors. Yes, that opens up greater risk to errors and even potential distortions. But I have found the user community is pretty quick to debate and expose error and distortion. It then becomes up to the reader to decide which side of the argument has greater cred. For better or worse, I like that process.
    Aug 25 06:04 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tekmira Pharmaceuticals: What Does The 'Animal Rule' Mean For Their Ebola Drug Development? [View article]
    Those wanting to speculate on the Ebola frenzy might want to check out IMV.V. Just announced similar results to TKMR in success with primates but at a quarter of the market cap.
    Aug 25 11:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Tekmira Investors Are Missing [View article]
    George, thanks for your comments. You will note I have never quoted a target price nor a value for the stock. I have merely observed excessive investor optimism as evidenced by the recent doubling of the stock price in less than a month and the fact that during that same month the entire market cap has turned over about 6 times. My experience is that kind of excessive trading coupled with investor hype an mis-conception, usually reverts the stock back near to where it was. My put position is so puny as to be inconsequential, you needn't worry about it. Maybe it will, maybe it won't. We will both see over the next month.
    Aug 21 03:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tekmira Pharmaceuticals: What Does The 'Animal Rule' Mean For Their Ebola Drug Development? [View article]
    I have claimed nothing about immunity. My simple thesis is that investors are generally mis-informed about the Animal Rule in thinking it will accelerate approval times or lower expense. Not that it matters either, but I did spell prophylactic incorrectly. Good catch!
    Aug 21 03:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tekmira Pharmaceuticals: What Does The 'Animal Rule' Mean For Their Ebola Drug Development? [View article]
    Look up therapeutic vaccines. You will see many that attempt to fight both HIV and cancer, to name some of the more common ones. The term vaccine is being used correctly (not that it really matters).
    Aug 21 03:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Tekmira Investors Are Missing [View article]
    My article is correct in stating that the standard protocol is three phases of human trials and that process takes both time and money. The animal rule pathway may shorten this process and may make it less costly. But if that is the case, how much shorter and how much less? Please keep in mind that the FDA still requires three phases even under the animal pathway. (See Q.4 here: http://bit.ly/1nezfkx) The stock has doubled since August. My point is why? What material changes have happened in the last 4 weeks? The Ebola outbreak is an 8 month old event. Investors are acting as if FDA approval is around the corner, get in now before it goes way higher. Higher on what? Is there an approval coming next week? I don't think so. These drugs take years to develop. No one has made one yet that has a statistically large number of human cures on their hands. The market is acting as if news is pending that 10, or 20 or more cures will come out of Africa thanks to TKM-Ebola. This is nonsense as the company has said it is not ready to ship drug for use on humans there: http://bit.ly/1nezfkA
    The outbreak, the Animal Rule, the headlines have not materially changed the fundamental path TKM is on to develop their drug pipeline. When the outbreak is eventually contained, that too will not change the fundamentals.
    Aug 21 11:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Tekmira Investors Are Missing [View article]
    Vaccine has both a prophylactic and a therapeutic use aspect to the term. It is appropriate to refer to TKM-Ebola as an experimental vaccine in the therapeutic sense.
    Aug 21 10:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Tekmira Investors Are Missing [View article]
    Unfortunately that may not be good news. Tekmira management has never stated the drug is ready for use with infected humans. They are still studying it on primates. They must be scared spitless that this will pull the drug out too early. What if they use the drug on infected people and some don't make it? That will be interpreted not as the drug needs further development and more time to be perfected, that will be interpreted as failure in a very loud and public way. Remember, there is currently no known cure for Ebola. Tekmira itself is certainly not claiming they have the cure. They are WORKING on one. There is a huge difference. They know it takes time to perfect these things. I highly doubt they want their experimental drug to be put to the ultimate test this early in the game. Think of it this way: Hand Robert DeNiro or Meryl Streep a terrific script and ask them to go on stage tomorrow in front of hundreds and I doubt they would do it. They are among the world's greatest actors, but even the greats cannot do it without adequate time to prepare. Tekmira management has never yet stated they are ready to issue their experimental stage drug as a cure.
    Aug 21 01:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Tekmira Investors Are Missing [View article]
    Thanks for your comment, Small Pharma. You have pretty much hit the nail on the head. RNAi has great promise but has a way to go to prove itself. The management at Tekmira I am sure know this and probably cringe at the recent volatility in their stock price. They are trying to build a long road to a delivery system that could possibly treat many diseases. I doubt they are trying to build a short path to riches. But the current hype misleads investors into thinking the latter is the case.
    Aug 21 01:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Tekmira Clinical Hold Lifted [View article]
    Volatility is the name of the game here! Your point about entry and exit is spot on. Best of luck with your trade as well.
    Aug 20 08:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Tekmira Clinical Hold Lifted [View article]
    Your article would have been more appropriately titled if you had referred to a partial lift or an amendment to the hold. But then it would be less sensational.

    There is now a substantial “Ebola premium” in this stock. Longer term investors who value the entire drug pipeline and the RNAi therapeutic generally should be wary of this premium and expect it to dissipate as investors realize that an outbreak does nothing to improve the chances of a full approval, which is a necessary condition for commercial sales. Such an approval may eventually come, but the stock is acting like that approval is in the bank and around the corner.
    Aug 20 06:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Tekmira Investors Are Missing [View article]
    You sound like a good trader. What else are you doing now?
    Aug 20 06:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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