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Christopher Wallace

 
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  • The Impossible Situation For North American Palladium [View article]
    Thanks for your comment, hards121. I agree, the collaborative process here has been excellent. The commenters really helped me to fully and properly understand the change in sustaining capex going forward. I remain surprised, however, at how little the company has done to inform investors clearly and accurately on the issue.
    Sep 28, 2013. 01:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shareholder Inequality: Fairfax's Other Motivations In Its Bid For BlackBerry [View article]
    True that!
    Sep 28, 2013. 12:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shareholder Inequality: Fairfax's Other Motivations In Its Bid For BlackBerry [View article]
    savinceb: I had read $17, but your concept is correct.
    Sep 28, 2013. 12:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Liquidate Lumber Liquidators Or Risk Losses [View article]
    Perhaps this executing of a search warrant by federal officials is the first wheel to fall off: http://bloom.bg/1fNC3Ux
    Sep 27, 2013. 02:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Shareholder Inequality: Fairfax's Other Motivations In Its Bid For BlackBerry [View article]
    Beta: those are great questions. You should have been able to ask those questions on the quarterly conference call; but in a utterly shameful move of pure cowardice, they cancelled it.
    Sep 27, 2013. 01:30 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shareholder Inequality: Fairfax's Other Motivations In Its Bid For BlackBerry [View article]
    Slick - I can certainly accept your proposition that Prem wants BBRY at $9. He has demonstrated desire for this stock at prices as high as $40. But what Prem wants is now highly irrelevant, since he will not be putting more money into the deal. The real question has become does any large pension fund, PE group, or other strategic investor want BBRY at $9? What the guy who is not putting money into the deal wants or thinks has become the big investor distraction.
    Sep 27, 2013. 12:37 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shareholder Inequality: Fairfax's Other Motivations In Its Bid For BlackBerry [View article]
    Gout, thank you for your comment. I do not think PW is necessarily being insincere in his bid. He certainly has a lot of belief in the company. However I DO think he required a lot of bells and whistles in his LOI to get him to do the deal. Basically, that LOI is a no-brainer for him. Heads he wins, tails he does not lose...sort of. What the terms of the LOI DO show is that Prem is a good negotiator, that Heins probably feels deeply indebted to Watsa for getting him the top job and massively boosting his payout under a change in control, that BBRY is backed up against the wall, and that the whole strategic alternatives process begun in August did not produce any other interested bidder. What the LOI DOES NOT show is any additional commitment to the process from Fairfax. They are effectively acting as a broker, not putting up any new money into the deal, and getting fat fees if someone else buys it.

    This stalking horse bid was a very smart move by Fairfax. It gives them a faint hope clause on getting back some of the money lost on a bad investment. If they are outbid, the fees come in big time. If they win the bid, as you and others have said (and I agree) PW is a good value investor and maybe he will have got a bargain. Under either scenario, Fairfax stands to recoup much more of their losses than the average investor. That is the shareholder inequality.
    Sep 27, 2013. 09:27 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shareholder Inequality: Fairfax's Other Motivations In Its Bid For BlackBerry [View article]
    wiesje: good catch. You are correct, it should read if BBRY breaks the deal. I have submitted the correction to Seeking Alpha.

    As to the numerous comments about Watsa's/Fairfax' intentions, who really knows? I just wanted others to be aware of the substantial benefit to Fairfax if they are topped. It becomes another, real motivation for making their bid.

    Keep in mind also that Fairfax is not putting up any more money, and this will be a challenge to getting in partners. They remain at 10% and look for partners to put up 90%, yet they have priced the deal and determined the deal terms. If I were contemplating putting up a large sum of money, larger than Fairfax, I would certainly want to have a say on pricing and other deal terms. And I would sure want some of those breaks fees as well. These issues, among others, make it difficult for Watsa to actually be the successful bidder.
    Sep 26, 2013. 10:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Is Prem Watsa Really Interested In Taking It Private? [View article]
    @Elephant - as you note in your article, BBRY has been the subject of a buyout at least since August when the strategic alternatives announcement was made but really as far back as when Fairfax became an investor. The length of time this has been in play may affect that 93% stat of Go Shop periods coming up blank. Offsetting that are the simply dreadful results BBRY has pre-announced and the reaction in the channel from certain distributors. With a 13% arb (at time of writing) to the deal price, the market is placing serious doubts about an eventual close. I personally share those doubts, but tomorrow's earnings release should be quite telling. A trade down to the mid 7s would signal to me that it is over.
    Sep 26, 2013. 03:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Prem Watsa Playing Bluff Poker With BlackBerry? [View article]
    To answer the question posed in the title of this article, no, I don't think Prem is playing bluff poker. I think he believes he can genuinely put together a consortium to take BBRY private. Just as he believed he would make a profit on his initial high-cost purchase of BBRY shares and on his subsequent average down. He was wrong in those earlier beliefs and he may very well be wrong about putting together a bid. But I think he is sincere in his intent, is not bluffing, but also may not yet fully realize the difficulty of his task.
    Sep 26, 2013. 09:55 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Memorandum To The BlackBerry Board Of Directors: Stop The Charade And Manage The Company [View article]
    Further consider the gross unfairness of cancelling the conference call: the great unwashed and public shareholders are treated to contradictory and confusing financials and now without the benefit of a conference call to get some much-needed explanations. While Fairfax and their consortium, and any other possible bidders, have access to a large and robust data room, management presentations and interviews. And then the time will come to vote on if the poor, uninformed shareholders should sell out to the bidder who has a massive information advantage.

    The best way to play this game is to stay mile away from it.
    Sep 25, 2013. 11:58 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Memorandum To The BlackBerry Board Of Directors: Stop The Charade And Manage The Company [View article]
    After a series of blunders, the length and seriousness of which that has to make some form of corporate history, the BBRY Board and management have actually managed to out-do themselves and top all previous management blunders: they are cancelling the Q2 earnings conference call! This board has utterly sh*t the bed over the past month, and now they will not man-up enough to face those shareholders who pay them millions in salary, bonus and options (and new corporate jets). If accusations of lack of transparency needed bolstering, this move has pushed them into complete opacity.

    Thorstein Heins is the man in charge and will wear these blunders for the rest of his life. He is the Bill Buckner of the corporate world. (Sorry Bill, I don't mean to insult you...)
    Sep 25, 2013. 11:44 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry cancels FQ2 CC [View news story]
    Oh, and lest I forget, big bloody jets, too! Shameful beyond words.
    Sep 25, 2013. 11:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry cancels FQ2 CC [View news story]
    Cancelling the conf call is appalling. These guys seriously sh*t the bed and now they don't want to answer to those very shareholders who pay them millions in salary, bonus and options. Disgraceful.
    Sep 25, 2013. 11:30 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry cancels FQ2 CC [View news story]
    They exercised rights, and a relatively small amount. Not illegal, but still, the optics on that move sucks.
    Sep 25, 2013. 11:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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