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Christopher Wallace

 
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  • BlackBerry Q2 Results Are Not What They Seem To Be; We Deserve An Explanation [View article]
    SFInvestor: as I read your post I instantly thought of Shakespeare! Certainly not due to any eloquence on your part, but he must have been reading your post when he penned "Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing".
    Sep 21 12:37 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Q2 Results Are Not What They Seem To Be; We Deserve An Explanation [View article]
    I admit it: I am confused.

    Did BBRY employ a different method of revenue recognition in Q2 vs. Q1? Or is the policy the same, but just applied with different judgment? As near as I can figure, it would appear to be the latter; the change being that the inventory in Q1 did not have enough time sitting in the channel to not be recognized as sales. Of course if that inventory does move, it will show up in Q3 revenue. That is what I assume will be the case. Hopefully there will be clarification on the conference call.

    The only certainty that I can see in this massively confusing debacle, is the raft of class action suits that will be filed next week.
    Sep 21 12:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Is Far From Dead. Right Sized, It Will Have A Profitable Future [View article]
    Michael, a good cogent analysis of BBRY's potential. The simplified earnings model was particularly helpful.

    As to the whole American thing, I don't think that Blackberry-bashing is a uniquely American pastime, it occurs here in Canada and I expect across the world as well. BBRY has fallen from the top of the heap and is now attempting to resurrect itself. When high-fliers swoon, they get trashed by the press, regardless of where they may hail from. BBRY, in attempting to come back, will either silence its critics or it won't. Take NFLX: it was pounded by the press around the world after its fall, but much less was said by those same critics as it clawed its way back. BBRY can expect a similar treatment from the press: punishment while it is down, relative silence about any recovery, if it comes. I mean that about the press globally, not just the American press.
    Sep 20 10:15 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Platinum Group Metals Is My Favorite Miner [View article]
    Nico: has PGM put out any indication as to what it expects mining costs to be? I think the average in South Africa now is around $1800; no one there is making money. Do you expect PGM to be any different?
    Sep 18 11:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Indicators That Signaled The 2007 Top: They're Back [View article]
    5 years and trillions of dollars on QE and the unemployment rate has fallen less than 1%. QE is great for the stock market, not so much for the employment market.
    Sep 18 03:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Fairfax Financial Might Be The Best Play On BlackBerry [View article]
    @Marcap: thx for your comment. How do you arrive at your valuation?
    Sep 15 12:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Impossible Situation For North American Palladium [View article]
    The risk in PAL is their weak liquidity and large, high-cost debt. I agree with you on the price of palladium, which is forecast to have a supply deficit over the next several years. I have no idea about any manipulation.
    Sep 13 06:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fairfax Financial Might Be The Best Play On BlackBerry [View article]
    jcount - thanks for that. 17 seems to be the number most cited as a buyout price, coincidently. Great upside to those who got in recently at 11 and under. Are upcoming earnings announcements going to be that relevant with deal talks in the works?
    Sep 13 01:28 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Impossible Situation For North American Palladium [View article]
    I have now spoken with the company who estimate that sustaining capital costs are likely to be $10 million per year. I also read the 594 page (ok, skimmed a lot of it) NI-43101 technical report which estimates sustaining capex at $35.2 million for 2013 - 2018. There is no better information than that.

    The problem is, and I know this is something of a mea culpa for me, but this is information you cannot get at by reading the company's financial statements, press releases, investor presentations, any part of their website, etc. So the fact is that I got it wrong in assuming that historical capex which had produced no increase in production, which was of a similar magnitude to competitor Stillwater, was required capex to sustain existing production. If PAL can maintain 250,000 ounces of annual production with only $10 million annual sustaining capital expenditures, they will generate more than enough cash to meet their financial obligations in 2017. Just because they have not been able to do that in the past, does not mean they will not be able to do it in the future. With the stock price now below a buck, I guess there are other investors who jumped to a similar conclusion.

    While I take their guidance with a cautious grain of salt, I hope that they do achieve those numbers. For if they do meet their targets, this would become, for me at least, an interesting though risky, investment.
    Sep 13 12:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Syria Puts Defense Contractors In Spotlight: Arotech Shines [View article]
    They have priced the issue at $1.75: http://bit.ly/162rJzu 3.5 - 4 million shares, closing Sep. 18. Assuming the over-allotment option is exercised, that takes the share count to 20 million, or about 25% dilution. Does that change my thesis? No, but it would lower my valuation, as other things equal, it would lower EPS to probably $0.27 due to the increased share count. Applying an 11x multiple you get close to $3 per share, so it remains, to me at least, an attractive investment for those willing to accept the risks that attend all small cap companies.

    The use of proceeds are "Arotech expects to use the net proceeds from the offering for general corporate purposes, which may include increasing its working capital, reducing its bank line of credit, funding research, development and product manufacturing, acquisitions or investments in businesses, products or technologies that are complementary to its own, and capital expenditures." A basic bolster the balance sheet kind of raise, which never thrills me, nor is it really anything to complain much about.
    Sep 13 11:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Syria Puts Defense Contractors In Spotlight: Arotech Shines [View article]
    ARTX has just announced a share offering: http://yhoo.it/18Uc9Jq Rather scant on details, but I suggest more will come out shortly.
    Sep 12 05:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fairfax Financial Might Be The Best Play On BlackBerry [View article]
    While I agree that Watsa is a very savvy investor, I am not so sure he will come out of this one ok. What is his average cost? Is it not close to $20?
    Sep 12 03:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Has Reached Bottom Of Short Term Channel [View instapost]
    Both NUGT and DUST can certainly generate excitement - NUGT has dropped from just over 100 to the low 60s today. Pretty shocking for two weeks work!
    Sep 11 09:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Indicators That Signaled The 2007 Top: They're Back [View article]
    Thanks for your comment, Go Lakers. I think I responded to people taking both sides of my thesis. Yes I am bearish on North American equities in general at this moment. Time will tell if I am right or wrong; I have been both before.

    My last comment was not a hedge on my thesis. The article stands. It was only a response and further clarification to some of the comments as noted.
    Sep 11 11:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry's 'Strategic Alternatives': There Is More Than Hope [View article]
    Good article. Obviously there are risks with BBRY failing to keep up in the smart phone race. But it retains enough goodies that a bid is likely to ensue. And I do mean "likely"; I would not rule out no bid, but my money is on the fact that someone shows up. Fairfax has the pole position at the moment, but I would not be surprised to see one of more of the strategics the author suggest to show up. I had previously thought MSFT was a likely candidate, but I am less confident with Nokia being digested. I think taking a small position in BBRY stock (as I have done) is wise. This is not a "back up the truck situation" but one where you have to be there. Between now and year end I see downside o $9, which is acceptable, particularly if the upside is the high teens. Works for me.
    Sep 11 11:16 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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