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Christopher Wallace

 
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  • 3 Indicators That Signaled The 2007 Top: They're Back [View article]
    Thanks for your comment Svetoslav. That is a very interesting stat indeed.
    Sep 10 03:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Indicators That Signaled The 2007 Top: They're Back [View article]
    Dividend: look a little closer at the article. The point being made is not that stocks and copper are long term correlates, but that divergence in their action signals a pending trend change. Again, not infallible, but right often enough to have earned its moniker. We'll see if it is right again this time.
    Sep 10 03:29 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Indicators That Signaled The 2007 Top: They're Back [View article]
    Rich, thank you for your comment and additional input. The put/call ratio has begun to flash a similar signal too. You can read about it in this stocktalk thread: http://bit.ly/1d3G6tq
    Sep 10 03:09 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fairfax Financial Might Be The Best Play On BlackBerry [View article]
    I think there is too much smoke for there to be no fire. Beleaguered though Blackberry may be, it still has valuable assets that an investor or investors will be interested in, holus bolus or piecemeal. The real question at this juncture is: will any deal get done? I think the answer is yes. BBRY's assets remain vital and would bring value to other strategic investors. Will they command the premium the author suggests? I have no idea, but I believe the stock is in play and so it moves higher from here. Watsa's leaving the board is a likely tell that Fairfax will make some form of bid. I agree with the author's logic about Nokia and MSFT having strategic interest. In a market as overdone as this one is, I think BBRY is a decent choice at this juncture, one that is likely to produce positive returns of some amount, against a backdrop of what appears (to me, anyway) an over-bought rest of the market.
    Sep 10 01:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Syria Puts Defense Contractors In Spotlight: Arotech Shines [View article]
    maverta: my research did not go back far enough to reveal any calls for Ehrlich's resignation, but, as of the end of this month, he steps down as CEO http://on.wsj.com/15Qej9N but remains as Chairman, and at reduced compensation. Steven Esses who has been with them since 2002 becomes CEO.

    Andrew, thanks for the heads up on SPA; I will look into it.
    Sep 9 10:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Impossible Situation For North American Palladium [View article]
    I have a call in to the Company to see what they will say about sustaining capex in 2014 and beyond. I have read their Q2 call transcript and they talk about $10 - $14 million in sustaining capex but is unclear to me if that is for the coming quarter or for the coming year. If they say they can hit 250,000 oz on less than $20 mil annual capex, that is a total game-changer and a result vastly different from anything in their past. If they can convince me of that, I would form a dramatically different conclusion than I have in this article. Stay tuned...
    Sep 6 11:46 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Liquidate Lumber Liquidators Or Risk Losses [View article]
    This is a good find (for shorts). By way of comparison, HD and LOW each trade for PEs in the low 20s, about half of LL.
    I like the idea.
    Sep 5 05:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Get Liquid Or Regret It: The Case For A Flight To Safety [View article]
    A good article and a cogent argument for holding cash or shorting liquid names. I might add to the author's list of reasons for bearishness, the lack of insider buying and in some stocks named above (most egregiously: CRM), insider selling.

    I am also mindful of the stock market's cyclical nature, and the rally from March 2009 is now in its 54th month; long in the tooth by historical standards.
    Sep 4 01:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Unique Opportunity In Stillwater Mining [View article]
    The new Chairman also put $500,000 of his own money into the stock and has 3 other directors nominated by the Clinton Group and 4 other outside directors to get onside with his decisions. There is always the risk that the new CEO when chosen is a dud, but this is no private fiefdom and one should expect reasonable governance as a result.
    Sep 2 11:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Finding Value In Sprott Resource Corp. [View article]
    There is certainly nothing wrong with being bullish on resources; nor is there anything wrong with diversifying a portfolio exposed to many resources. The problem arises when you do it in a public company. The market will trade you at a deep discount. That problem becomes exacerbated with leverage.

    But paying a dividend with borrowed money? That is incompetence. Buying back your stock with borrowed money: more incompetence.
    Aug 30 12:36 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Impossible Situation For North American Palladium [View article]
    It appears that I may need to make some sort of mea culpa to you all regarding PAL's on-going sustaining capex.

    I may have made an erroneous assumption about sustaining capex. As some of the other commenters to my article pointed out, on the conference call the company has estimated go forward sustaining capex to be $10 mil per year, a reduction of significant magnitude from past results. I did not listen to the conf call as part of my due diligence. Nothing in their regulatory filings, their presentations or press releases, nothing in print tells you of this forecast capex reduction. The ability to maintain production with $10 mil/year maintenance capex would be a remarkable game-changer for PAL, and dramatically change my conclusion.

    I do not listen to earnings calls for the most part as I find most of the important info comes more succinctly from the filings. I will listen to that call soon and try get a handle on how realistic such a drastic reduction in capex might come about.

    Obviously management knows a lot more about their ore body and its geology than I ever will. But their historical capex was similar to competitor Stillwater and therefore it seemed reasonable to me that sustaining capex would likely come in as it has in the past.

    Whether in fact it does or not, remains to be seen. I will provide further comment once I have listened to the call.
    Aug 30 11:23 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Impossible Situation For North American Palladium [View article]
    Thanks for pointing out the conf call, which I had not listened to. They had no mention of forecast capex in any of their filings. If they can increase production while dramatically lowering capex, then that admittedly would be a total game changer. But I would be very nervous about accepting such a premise; it is just so contrary to their history. Also if you look at competitor Stillwater Mining, they have a similar capex history (about $120 mil/year) as PAL for very little growth. I would be interested to hear how they can make the growth case now when all of their previous spending just kept production flat.
    Aug 29 12:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Unique Opportunity In Stillwater Mining [View article]
    Here are my thoughts on PAL: http://seekingalpha.co...
    Aug 29 11:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Unique Opportunity In Stillwater Mining [View article]
    JV and Johnny: Based on your guys comments I looked further into PAL and did some research which I will turn into an article and submit to SA. I'll post a link here if it gets published.
    Aug 28 08:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Unique Opportunity In Stillwater Mining [View article]
    Is TC Thomson Creek? if so, aren't they a moly producer?
    Aug 28 02:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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