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Christopher Wallace  

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  • Is Prem Watsa Playing Bluff Poker With BlackBerry? [View article]
    Watson and Fairfax are restricted as insiders and won't be buying. The same will be true for any potential consortium member that Fairfax shared its due diligence with.
    Sep 25, 2013. 05:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Prem Watsa Playing Bluff Poker With BlackBerry? [View article]
    @slickvguy: the DD period is no doubt for his financiers, not Fairfax.

    The press release of this hasty bid reveals:

    1. How weak BBRY is; a stronger company would likely not make any PR about an un-financed, subject to DD LOI.
    2. Fairfax wants to establish that at least someone has interest and avoid the silence of no bidders coming forth. FFH reputation is being managed here.
    3. Fairfax has no "lead investor" to partner with. Talks with CPP and probably Teachers have been going on for a while. That no one would put their name in the release and commit to having stepped up is revealing.

    Effectively what has happened here is that a 10% owner has said they want the whole thing and they are going to hunt for partners to fill in the other 90%. This is not a potential buyout by Fairfax, it is an attempt to create a consortium which would leave Fairfax a small minority player within. That is a tenuous situation, one that would not ordinarily be press-released as it is ust too uncertain.

    Michael's strategy of owning puts and calls is a good one. I wrote about doing just that in a comment here: Basically make a call on volatility on and after the 27th, don't make a call on direction.
    Sep 25, 2013. 11:43 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry resumes trading, shares at $8.92 [View news story]
    Subject to financing and subject to due diligence. A stronger company would not even announce such a letter of intent, not until they had gone firm. But given the debacle and lack of previous disclosure, they have to err on the side of caution.

    This is Prem's last round of averaging down.
    Sep 23, 2013. 02:26 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hedge Your BlackBerry Holdings As Shareholders Get Madder [View article]
    The bid is not yet financed. A lot could happen to scuttle it. Hard to know if any superior bid could materialize until after the earnings report.
    Sep 23, 2013. 02:14 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hedge Your BlackBerry Holdings As Shareholders Get Madder [View article]
    My own view is to stay away from this name entirely until the conference call on the 27th. I exited my long position this morning, tail between legs and red-faced as I was. The opacity of their disclosure, as events have now revealed, is such that BBRY is a dangerous hold for either a long or a short. My intention is to have a look at the options premiums on the 26th with a view to buying near term at-the-money (as close as can be) calls and puts. I have no expectation as to direction, just an expectation of volatility. If that volatility occurs after the release, the gain on one side of the trade should offset the total loss on the other side.
    Sep 23, 2013. 11:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Q2 Results Are Not What They Seem To Be; We Deserve An Explanation [View article]
    I got out this morning at $8.45, losing $2.55/share. Thankfully it was a small position, but still an embarrassingly large %age loss over a short period of time. I suspect that over the course of this week many will do likewise and we will see the stock drift lower. Any potential bidder would be foolish to bid before the conference call and until they have received a legal opinion on any lawsuits that may arise during the course of the week. Friday will be a total wild card, so I would not be surprised to see some short covering ahead of the announcement. Given the opacity of their true finances, holding a position in BBRY, long or short, into the announcement seems unnecessarily risky to me.
    Sep 23, 2013. 10:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Q2 Results Are Not What They Seem To Be; We Deserve An Explanation [View article]
    @Michael, a cashed up company with no debt would, I think, find it a challenge to enter Ch. 11, which would also require it to be a US company. Being Canadian I guess it could consider CCAA, but that still seems extreme at this point. It will be interesting to see how their insurers react to any lawsuit, and see if they deny the claim.
    Sep 23, 2013. 10:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reports: Lazaridis weighing bid for BlackBerry [View news story]
    You can short on the TSX, but you have to be able to borrow the stock to do so. That becomes a very big but.
    Sep 21, 2013. 08:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Q2 Results Are Not What They Seem To Be; We Deserve An Explanation [View article]
    Well said. The BBRY Board appears to lack the courage to be forthright. That fear has cost them dearly.

    I became a small shareholder recently at $11, thinking my downside was $9 and upside of $17. I will exit at the open on Monday and watch the action from the sidelines with a view to re-enter if the market gets panicky and offers up a price approaching revised cash per share (~$5). I am certainly not predicting it will go there, but until the confusion clears, I can be confident only about cash (dwindling as it is), not about the business nor the prospect of a buyout.
    Sep 21, 2013. 03:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Q2 Results Are Not What They Seem To Be; We Deserve An Explanation [View article]
    SFInvestor: as I read your post I instantly thought of Shakespeare! Certainly not due to any eloquence on your part, but he must have been reading your post when he penned "Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing".
    Sep 21, 2013. 12:37 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Q2 Results Are Not What They Seem To Be; We Deserve An Explanation [View article]
    I admit it: I am confused.

    Did BBRY employ a different method of revenue recognition in Q2 vs. Q1? Or is the policy the same, but just applied with different judgment? As near as I can figure, it would appear to be the latter; the change being that the inventory in Q1 did not have enough time sitting in the channel to not be recognized as sales. Of course if that inventory does move, it will show up in Q3 revenue. That is what I assume will be the case. Hopefully there will be clarification on the conference call.

    The only certainty that I can see in this massively confusing debacle, is the raft of class action suits that will be filed next week.
    Sep 21, 2013. 12:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Is Far From Dead. Right Sized, It Will Have A Profitable Future [View article]
    Michael, a good cogent analysis of BBRY's potential. The simplified earnings model was particularly helpful.

    As to the whole American thing, I don't think that Blackberry-bashing is a uniquely American pastime, it occurs here in Canada and I expect across the world as well. BBRY has fallen from the top of the heap and is now attempting to resurrect itself. When high-fliers swoon, they get trashed by the press, regardless of where they may hail from. BBRY, in attempting to come back, will either silence its critics or it won't. Take NFLX: it was pounded by the press around the world after its fall, but much less was said by those same critics as it clawed its way back. BBRY can expect a similar treatment from the press: punishment while it is down, relative silence about any recovery, if it comes. I mean that about the press globally, not just the American press.
    Sep 20, 2013. 10:15 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Platinum Group Metals Is My Favorite Miner [View article]
    Nico: has PGM put out any indication as to what it expects mining costs to be? I think the average in South Africa now is around $1800; no one there is making money. Do you expect PGM to be any different?
    Sep 18, 2013. 11:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Indicators That Signaled The 2007 Top: They're Back [View article]
    5 years and trillions of dollars on QE and the unemployment rate has fallen less than 1%. QE is great for the stock market, not so much for the employment market.
    Sep 18, 2013. 03:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Fairfax Financial Might Be The Best Play On BlackBerry [View article]
    @Marcap: thx for your comment. How do you arrive at your valuation?
    Sep 15, 2013. 12:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment