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Christopher Wallace

 
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  • Decoding Amazon.com [View article]
    Thx Mark, that maxim has saved me several times. I am prepared to suffer several small losses in names like this, expecting to someday catch the really big wave.
    Jan 7, 2013. 02:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Decoding Amazon.com [View article]
    I covered the last half of my short at the open. Don't fight the tape with AMZN. Fight, fight, run away, live to fight another day.
    Jan 7, 2013. 01:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Average Selling Price Decline Is The Smoking Gun That Sinks Amazon's Business Model [View article]
    Good article Timothy. I have not run the numbers, but I suspect that if AMZN were to include fulfillment costs in costs of goods sold, GPM would probably be declining. I really think the AMZN business model peaked in 2011.
    Jan 7, 2013. 10:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas In 2013: It's Now A Trading Sardine [View article]
    Thanks Careful. It was welcome relief!
    Jan 4, 2013. 05:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Very Simple Explanation For Gold's Weakness [View article]
    Thx Paulo, a very good point. You might beinterested in Peter Schiff's brief take in Barron's today: http://on.barrons.com/...
    Jan 4, 2013. 03:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Very Simple Explanation For Gold's Weakness [View article]
    Paulo, no doubt your thesis has some merit. But in light of recent Fed annoucements, do you think that perhaps the orgy may be over? Or possibly a pause before the next course?
    Jan 4, 2013. 03:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Review Of The Correlation Between Natural Gas And Coal Stocks [View article]
    Paulo, I suspect that what you say may very well be true. And that probably goes to the debt phenomenon I referred to in the article. But it still does not change the fact that there was an absence of correlation in 2012.

    The fact is that there SHOULD be a correlation. That is what most people are having difficulty with. There should be but there was not. Because there should have been correlation I bought into the sector. But when I realized that other factors were a greater influence and the correlation did not manifest, I sold. Keyenes: "When the facts change, I change."
    Jan 4, 2013. 09:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas In 2013: It's Now A Trading Sardine [View article]
    "The storage surplus is back, using the 5 yr avg. " Yup. Do we now need a rig count in the 300s to restore equilibrium??
    Jan 4, 2013. 09:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Based On Today's Trading Behavior, Natural Gas Could Be Headed Toward A Bear Market [View article]
    I checked a weather map for the northeast, which I assume is the greatest source of demand and temperatures appear to be hovering around 30 degrees. If I lived there I would turn my heat on. I am just not getting the weather argument right now.
    Jan 3, 2013. 11:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Review Of The Correlation Between Natural Gas And Coal Stocks [View article]
    Thanks Gigem, that is really great information. I have only scanned the other articles but looks like lots of potent info in them as well. I encourage other readers to follow Gigem's link. It goes to show that often the comments here at SA are worth more than the article. Wait a minute, I wrote this article...
    Jan 3, 2013. 10:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Review Of The Correlation Between Natural Gas And Coal Stocks [View article]
    Thanks very much for your comment, Oz Rob. You hit the nail on its head.
    Jan 3, 2013. 10:03 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Review Of The Correlation Between Natural Gas And Coal Stocks [View article]
    Mark, as should have been clear, I was not looking at 07-08, my article was about 2012. My thesis stands, and is supported by the graphs supplied. And without putting too fine a point on it, you have been one of the more vocal advocates at SA of the rising coal stocks due thesis which, as the charts show, has in fact been the wrong thesis. Someday your thesis may become correct, but it wasn't in 2012.

    As to UNG, I offered no investment thesis on that. It's problems with contango are so well known that it is trite to even say it. Not withstanding contnago issues, and that UNG is a notoriously poor long term investment, UNG performed better in 2012 than did the coal stock index.

    But thanks very much for your kind offer to let me read your old article.
    Jan 3, 2013. 08:52 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Review Of The Correlation Between Natural Gas And Coal Stocks [View article]
    You make a good point mlp investor. Perhaps a better way to play coal stocks is to seek correlation with economic activity in Europe and Asia.
    Jan 3, 2013. 08:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Review Of The Correlation Between Natural Gas And Coal Stocks [View article]
    Thanks for your comment Paulo, and yes, things do change. And perhaps coal stocks may at some point in the future become correlated to natural gas, but my simple point was that was not the case during 2012.
    Jan 3, 2013. 08:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas In 2013: It's Now A Trading Sardine [View article]
    Thx for your comment Deltascared. I am with you in that colder temperatures presently being experienced in the more populated zones are not driving price. Perhaps the forecast is for mild temps? I have not seen. As to exports, I think that Cheniere's new LNG facility is set come on stream in 2014? Exporting LNG from North America is a game changer for prices here and abroad.
    Jan 3, 2013. 02:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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