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Christopher Wallace

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  • OncoGenex: Phase III Trial In First Line Metastatic Prostate Cancer Fails, Now What? [View article]
    While yesterday's results were no doubt disappointing, one has to accept that risk with biotech. I was caught offside by how early they announced; I was thinking H2. But what remains is a company with one drug in phase III and one drug in phase II and $39 mil of cash. That gives a less than $20 mil value for the two drugs. That is a very cheap valuation for two drugs at that stage. Sentiment will rule the day in the short term, and that sentiment will continue to be negative, for several weeks I would think. A trade into the low 3s could certainly prove possible and a good entry point. I would expect the announcement of a financing sooner rather than later, as it is now inevitable and best to get these things done as quickly as possible to remove uncertainty. I am looking for an opportunity to re-enter on the long side.
    Apr 29, 2014. 02:59 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kandi: The World's Greatest Non-Candy Company [View instapost]
    I am skeptical of this one too. But they did have a blow out qtr. When do they next report earnings?

    They also had some pretty rabid bulls as shareholders, who for the most part seem to be gone now. I am wondering if it is worth a short term spec going into earnings.
    Apr 29, 2014. 01:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kandi: The World's Greatest Non-Candy Company [View instapost]
    I was a vocal KNDI bear when it was over $20. But at $11, I could be persuaded to change my tune. Am I missing something?
    Apr 29, 2014. 01:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arotech: A Dead Battery In Disguise - Why The Stock Is Worth No More Than $2 Per Share [View article]
    I have a certain amount of general agreement with the author's negative viewpoint on ARTX; at least I did when it was over $5. I wrote about it for the second time on November 18 and had a price target of $3.25 at that time. Clearly the mania over batteries caused the stock to way overshoot my target. While I am of the view that the target is still representative of its true value, I expect it to overshoot on the downside, just as it did on the upside. For all of the faults the author points out, I do think his position is a bit extreme...but that is just one person's opinion. I actually don't see this going below book value ($2.45), in fact, barring a major bear market, I doubt it would reach that level. Would I but this stock? No, it is too promotional. If it did trade down to the author's target of $2, I would be all over it. While I certainly have my doubts, I hope that it does.
    Apr 29, 2014. 01:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is There Any Power Left In Plug Power? Guru Funds Don't Think So. [View article]
    The problem with battery-powered lifts is that as the charge runs low, the amount of power out put runs low too. Fuel cells and propane run at full power until they are out of juice.

    But the issue with PLUG is not anything to do with the hierarchy of competing technologies. They do not make fuel cells. They buy them from Ballard. The issues with PLUG are two: 1) they sell their products at a loss and 2) their valuation. The first issue almost killed them but the massive run up in their stock has allowed them to do 2 financings so far this year with a third on the way. (It truly shocks me what investors will put up with.)

    Hydrogen fuel cells have a place and purpose. And they are clean. And somewhat new (at least they are developing). But that does not mean they are going to pave the road to profits for PLUG. This company has an awful of proving yet to do before it can properly shake off its loss-making past.
    Apr 23, 2014. 12:12 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is There Any Power Left In Plug Power? Guru Funds Don't Think So. [View article]
    Until PLUG can offer investors some hope of generating a positive gross margin, all increases in backlog and sales are detrimental to this company. Their conference calls need to focus on that metric, as it will determine if there is any substance behind the hype.
    Apr 22, 2014. 01:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Kandi Technologies: The Latest Bubble Stock? [View article]
    The stock fell further and faster than I thought it would. I have no position and not view on its direction any more.
    Apr 21, 2014. 01:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Kandi Technologies: The Latest Bubble Stock? [View article]
    In the one month since this article was published, KNDI has declined 50% in value. It will now have to double to get back to that spot.
    Apr 20, 2014. 01:20 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • North American Palladium: Is It Really Possible To Avoid Bankruptcy? [View article]
    GForbid: your comment as well off the mark. First, the decline from $1.00 has precious little to do with this article or any others published here at SA, including my own. Note that Fun Trading has 114 followers. Not exactly legions. This stock has dropped for $1.00 because over the course of the last six months it has run out of cash, it has ceased to make interest payments on its loan to BAM, causing interest to soar to 19%, it has incurred an 8 million loan re-structuring fee, it has failed (miserably) to meet the production and costs projected in the PEA, announced guidance that shows costs increasing, even after the shaft hit 825 metres and has all-in-sustaining cash costs that require a 50% improvement in pd price to break even, and now have entered into 2 tranches of highly dilutive financing. If you don't like the share performance, blame the operating results, not the authors who accurately report them.
    Apr 20, 2014. 01:14 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 7 Questions For Plug Power Investors [View article]
    Entirely incorrect. Edison, Ford, Monk (who founded Tesla), etc were/are all brilliant men who discovered something the rest of us did not. Buffet et al have proven their investment merit in buying low-valued, overlooked companies. Anyone who thinks PLUG is overlooked is fooling themselves, in the extreme.
    Apr 18, 2014. 01:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 7 Questions For Plug Power Investors [View article]
    PLUG is hardly a secret. You are not discovering anything new here. This company is as main-stream and discovered as any.

    I am continually amazed at the bogus reasons being advanced for owning this company.
    Apr 17, 2014. 10:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Stop Shorting Volatility Right Now [View article]
    Girogio: don't forget that volatility etfs buy front and deferred contracts, not the spot VIX. Therefore, correlation to the VIX, particularly on a day to day basis, can and should be, quite low.
    Apr 15, 2014. 10:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 7 Questions For Plug Power Investors [View article]
    An eighth question would be: what evidence can the company point to that would indicate PLUG can generate a positive gross margin on a per unit basis? They have so far manufactured at a loss before overheads. Why would that change? Have they increased their price to WalMart? Has Ballard lowered their price to PLUG? Since none of those events have been press-released, I doubt that either are likely. Since PLUG is really just an assembler who buys out parts from others, one would therefore have to assume that considerable efficiencies have been derived in the assembly process. Is that really possible?
    Apr 14, 2014. 12:00 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: I'm A Buyer On Monday - Yes, Again [View article]
    I think that for the most part, QTR has the BBRY thesis correct: large cash position will give very capable new CEO enough room to turn operations around. But I will play this stock in a different way. Even though he presented a chart, the author seems to be paying no heed to the technical picture; BBRY continues in a downtrend. I won't buy any stock at $7.50 if I think $7 or $6.50 is in the cards. But that is just me. The whole NASDAQ/tech world is in pain, and given their 5 years of wild joy that preceded, my guess is that pain will continue for weeks if not months. BBRY is not likely to buck that short term trend. Given the volatility in this stock, I think it is one that is worth waiting on and watching. For right now I do see QTR's point on value, but I do no see that as being a reason to buy...yet. When his chart has turned up, I will look at entering then. I invest based upon fundamentals, but I time those investments with help from the technicals. Just my personal style.
    Apr 14, 2014. 11:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Uranium Energy: Significant Shareholder Dilution Ahead [View article]
    "This article seems a bit pessimistic. " Correct. The fact is that some stocks will go up and some down. It is important to read information about both. Itinerant has expressed a view here that is not favorable to this company, and in my opinion he has done so with both accuracy and clarity. His estimate of cash burn seems sound and his six month window to finance is well backed-up. Even if they somehow manage to cash up using debt (does not strike me as likely) that event would likely have a similarly depressing effect on the stock price, other things equal, as any new debt financing is likely to be expensive for this issuer. And I cannot imagine shareholders wanting to see even more debt on this balance sheet.

    Shelf registrations are often for amounts much larger than the company intends to raise, so I would not put too much on the number in the S3. It is the cash position that will really drive the amount of financing, and when, and it would make sense for them to raise at least one year's worth of cash needs the next time they go to market. The analysis here seems correct: that there are better places for your uranium investment dollars. If that is being pessimistic, so be it. It is still probably good advice.
    Apr 9, 2014. 10:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment