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Christopher Wallace

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  • Mark Zuckerberg, The Warren Buffett Of Technology? [View article]
    Zuck has learned nothing from Buffet; they could not be further apart in investment style. There is nothing about value investment in acquiring a zero revenue, 2 year old business from a 21 year old who made a prototype for $2 billion. What is it about the preceding that says Buffet to you?
    Mar 26 10:54 AM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry's Chen Is 'Going Rogue' [View article]
    I seem to have been the only one, but I took Chen's comment of no offers on his desk as a positive one. I do not want someone to take this company private today at a small premium to book value and at the early days of its turn around. While risks certainly remain, I believe the long term prospects for this company continue to be very bright, and made slightly brighter by the recent acquisition.

    As to QTR's trading activity in this stock, good for him if he is able to catch the small swings as well as the big ones. You really need to do some of that with these volatile names. My own position in BBRY is small at the moment but I intend to use this weakness to add. I think being quite long before next quarters earnings is a smart strategy.
    Jul 29 10:51 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Short Sellers And Seeking Alpha [View article]
    I have published articles here at Seeking Alpha advocating both long and short positions in various stocks. When advocating going long, comments to my articles reflect healthy debate and are for the most part quite civil. The same can generally be said about my bullish comments to other author's articles (unless of course we are talking about BBRY which attracts an unusual amount of vitriolic readers!). But where I have advocated a short position in a stock in an article, a familiar pattern emerges each time: ad hominem attacks of me, not my thesis; accusations of using my article to attempt to manipulate the market; an assumption that I am out to cause someone harm. This pattern is by no means limited to my articles, as other authors here can attest. The ad hominem I can get over quite easily, they just take up space and I can now recognize what is coming in the first line or two and skip the rest of the comment. As to manipulating the market, that is quite humourous. I have around 500 followers. I would love to flatter myself and think that enough of the world actually reads or cares about my articles to actually make a difference to the price of a stock. I have never written an article with the intent of harming another person; in fact my bearish articles will hopefully help others to avoid further losses in the stocks I have written about. I have not always got it right in my bullish articles, but I have yet to make a serious directional mistake in any of my bearish calls. But the bashing from the haters does get tiresome after a while. As a result I have not published anything here at SA for a few months. For me the fun of publishing here has been entering into serious, intellectual and thought-provoking debate. But when the civility goes, I lose my motivation.

    Penning accurately written and well researched short theses does a service to the investment community. I would do it more often, if not for the antipathy it unfortunately creates among many commenters.
    Aug 1 10:28 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Has An 80% Chance Of Doubling [View article]
    Wrong, TJ Lee. The point that you have missed is that John Chen has a track record. He is not a huckster, he is a serious businessman who takes on troubled situations and has demonstrated an ability to succeed. Maybe he will succeed again or maybe he will not. He puts those chances at 80%, up from 50% at the beginning of the year. Chen is the sort of person who would make the comment only because he believes it. Other penny stock promoters may glibly make similar comments without really having a justification, but you are talking about an entirely different sort of person with an entirely different background. Fair enough if you choose to not swing at that pitch, but not right to impugn his motive as bad faith; there is nothing in Chen’s past that I am aware of to justify such a sleight.
    May 29 11:10 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry shooting higher; Chen expects FY16 profits [View news story]
    In 2013 BBRY was a stock to be shorted. In 2014 it is probably a stock to be traded. If Chen can deliver then perhaps 2015 will the year that BBRY becomes a stock to be bought.
    Dec 21 01:43 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon's Extraordinary Cash Generating Power [View article]
    Certainly Amazon is an extraordinary business and has many extraordinary attributes and achievements it can lay claim to. Innovation and market share capture are two that immediately pop to mind. But cash generation? I think that aspect is its biggest failing. Almost all of its meager operating cash flow has to be reinvested in capital spending to keep the growth-at-any-cost machine alive. Almost 20 years and hundreds of billions of dollars of revenue later, what amount of cash has AMZN really generated? There is about $4 billion of cash net of long term debt on the books. Working capital ratio is barely over 1.0. No dividends have been paid. AMZN generates precious little cash above what it necessarily consumes. I think there are many things to admire about AMZN, but cash generation is not one of them.
    Aug 8 12:12 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Think About The Apple/IBM Deal And BlackBerry [View article]
    A good, punchy and to the point article. The Apple/IBM partnership will certainly provide competition for BBRY. Does that mean game over for BBRY? Hardly. BBRY has faced extremely intense competition throughout all of its ups and downs. Will this just formed partnership stop the turnaround that was evidenced in BBRY's most recent quarterly report? I doubt it; but it is certainly too early to form a definitive view. The drop in BBRY stock seems hasty to me, given all of the other considerations affecting it: valuation, turnaround in numbers, software focus, etc. Time will tell just how much competition AAPL will provide. No doubt it will provide some, but the commenters here who have made definitive statements of BBRY's demise based upon scant information are playing into the whole fear/greed aspect of investor psychology. The prevalence of that view had me buying BBRY calls at the open as a contrary bet.
    Jul 18 10:00 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • North American Palladium Likely A Multi-Bagger [View article]
    Your analysis seems to gloss over the fact that they need $37 mil to complete their transition to shaft mining which is what future profitability relies on. They raised $21 from BAM, and they need working capital and contingency reserves too. Probably at least $40 mil in equity. Any idea what that means in terms of dilution? Any idea why they have not announced anything about financing progress so far?

    Also, once they have transitioned to all underground mining, don't you have to account for higher costs per tonne of ore than the avg you are assuming using half surface mine costs?
    Jan 2 06:01 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry resumes trading, shares at $8.92 [View news story]
    Subject to financing and subject to due diligence. A stronger company would not even announce such a letter of intent, not until they had gone firm. But given the debacle and lack of previous disclosure, they have to err on the side of caution.

    This is Prem's last round of averaging down.
    Sep 23 02:26 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Coal Stock Bottom Has Passed [View article]
    Mark, your revisionist view of history is getting even worse. In your third para in the above comment you chastise the readers for not making regular purchases of ANR and JRCC and thereby effectively missing a 41% gain. The first article I read of yours was in April of this year, wherein you disclosed long positions in both ANR and JRCC. Both of those positions were priced 50% higher then than they are today. Yet you only count purchases that you supposedly made at the precise bottom. And then you go on to claim that your portfolio has doubled from where it was after PCX went bk. Considering that JRCC/ANR are up only 41% from their exact bottom (using your numbers) and also considering your own disclosure on SA that you owned both of those names at prices 50% above todays quote and further considering that your significant investment in PCX (some purchased as high as $14) evaporated, just how did you double your portfolio since PCX flamed out at the beginning of July?
    Sep 18 06:34 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake Energy (CHK -3.1%) swings without a safety net after reportedly removing most of its derivative hedges against gas and oil prices for 2012 and 2013. It's a big reversal in philosophy for a company that once bragged of being "the best in the industry” at natural-gas hedging.  [View news story]
    There is only one reason to remove the hedges: they beleive prices will rise. It is a bold move and they must have pretty high conviction in order to do that. That is an event worthy of paying attention to.
    Apr 9 02:13 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Q1 May Herald The Beginning Of A Recovery [View article]
    "Mr. Blair has come full circle. Bull to Bear and back to Bull on BB. It takes guts to admit you were wrong twice. " I wish I had been wrong only twice on BBRY!

    A good analysis; some commenters think it optimistic, but even if actual results fall a bit short of our author's projections, it will likely bear out his conclusion that the market will cheer that result.

    Expectations on BBRY are so low right now that it will be very difficult to disappoint investors. This is the opposite of being priced for perfection; BBRY is priced for disaster. Consequently I too am long the stock and long a few calls as well. I will add to those calls on any dips prior to the 19th.
    Jun 16 10:33 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arotech Corp. - A Lithium-Battery Stock Ready To Quadruple; $16 Price Target [View article]
    Ridiculous and mis-leading article. The battery division of this company does not drive its fortunes, the simulation division does. No mention of earnings anywhere and a ridiculous valuation based upon revenues. Not even close.

    BTW, nice picture of the Spyker (Danish ultra-sports car). Which is in no way connected to ARTX. And no, it is not battery powered. Pathetic.
    Mar 25 12:03 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Seeking Alpha Embraces Pseudonymity [View article]
    I don't think that would work. Too many people would confuse agreeing or not agreeing with the thesis with "liking" the article. There are many good articles here at SA, particularly that recommend selling or shorting popular stocks, that would receive numerous "dislike" clicks. That would not be a reflection of the quality of the article, it would be a reflection of investor sentiment.
    Mar 19 08:34 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wellgreen Platinum: A Gem Amongst The Rubble - Genuine '10-Bagger' Upside [View article]
    "Sources tell us multiple multi-billion dollar mining-related Companies are in the due-diligence/sit-down... stages with Wellgreen. Insider buying has been heavy." Uhhh, that would be against the law. If they are shopping the company, then they are in a quiet period. If insiders are buying, then they are not shopping the company and no one is doing due dilly.
    Jan 23 01:10 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment