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Christopher Wallace  

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  • North American Palladium: Desperate Times Call For Desperate Measures [View article]
    Some good news for PAL on drill results: http://yhoo.it/1d3J6Hr Offset zone grades are good and should improve average mill grade once mined. Conspicuous by its absence in the release was anything about financing.
    Dec 23, 2013. 11:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry shooting higher; Chen expects FY16 profits [View news story]
    In 2013 BBRY was a stock to be shorted. In 2014 it is probably a stock to be traded. If Chen can deliver then perhaps 2015 will the year that BBRY becomes a stock to be bought.
    Dec 21, 2013. 01:43 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry's CEO John Chen Installing New Team [View article]
    Until that earnings call, BBRY has traded like it was going bankrupt. After the billion dollar debenture raise, BBRY still has plenty of risks, but near term bk is not one of them. Right now this looks to me like a classic all-the-bad-news-is-out story. Whether there is much good news to come is anyone's guess. I suspect that the professional shorts will see it this way and have begun to cover. I don't know if this will become more than a short-covering rally, but, fwiw, for the next little while I expect an upward bias and would buy dips with small money. (The Feb $5 calls have virtually no premium)
    Dec 21, 2013. 01:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • North American Palladium: Desperate Times Call For Desperate Measures [View article]
    Unfortunately any potential white knight (or suitor or JV partner) sees the same hurdle in the BAM loan that we all see and have been talking about here. I simply cannot come around to seeing any other miner wanting to put themselves under that kind of pressure financially. And good luck trying to negotiate with BAM on terms or buying their note at a discount. If Jack Cockwell is still there then that is a non-starter. PAL's survival depends upon 1) getting some more equity, fast and 2) actually delivering on 200k oz and $300 cash costs. Will they do either or both? That is anyone's guess. But even if you guess right, it is still a guess so I would stay away from the long side of this trade until that info is out.
    Dec 21, 2013. 12:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • North American Palladium: Desperate Times Call For Desperate Measures [View article]
    Jeffrey, thank you for adding to the analysis.

    I am not terribly worried about a covenant default in October 14. I am worried about survival until that time, which is clearly dependent upon raising sufficient equity. If they do raise enough equity to complete their transition plans, then even if they are way off on their forecast production (200,000 oz) and cash costs ($300) they will still generate substantially more than the required $15 mil of EBITDA at that time. That will become a worry for later this year...if they get financed soon!

    Dec 20, 2013. 12:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • North American Palladium: Desperate Times Call For Desperate Measures [View article]
    BigBlue, a good comment, thank you.

    My basic thinking on the stock price is that an equity raise HAS to occur before the stock can move up as that raise is needed for the company to realize its potential from the transition to Offset. There of course will be temporary flurries, as we have seen, but the major trend will have to be down until they finance as any placement will be done something below market. So I just cannot see buying or holding this stock until you know how much dilution was created in the raise and you know that they have sufficient liquidity to achieve their transition plans. Is $0.20 in the cards? Perhaps. That will be a function of how long it takes to raise money and a function of how they are progressing at the mine. Both big unknowns at the moment.
    Dec 20, 2013. 11:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Energy Fuels: Deep Value In Uranium [View article]
    They presently have 3 U supply contracts; 1 expires in 2015 and 2 expire in 2017.
    Dec 20, 2013. 10:43 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Energy Fuels: Deep Value In Uranium [View article]
    DL(, thanks for your comment. The competitor comparison was done by Dundee Securities and appears on the company's website. Since there are no other producing uranium mines in the US, they will have to do for comparison purposes.
    Dec 19, 2013. 11:09 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • North American Palladium: Desperate Times Call For Desperate Measures [View article]
    Dr Pharma, thanks for your comments. The $50 million is described in the fourth paragraph: $37 for capex to finish transition to the Offset Zone and $16 million for adequate working cap less the $21,4 from from BAM leaves minimum needs of $30 mil. A buffer would be advisable in case they do not immediately go to 200,000 ounces of production and $300/oz cash costs.

    Don't forget they want to do $30 mil of capex in 2014. And also don't forget that the BAM loan, now with principal of $170 mil generates interest expense of $32.3 mil per year. That is $60 mil of cash needs before SG&A. There would be nothing wrong with raising a little extra to have a few months running room in the bank.
    Dec 19, 2013. 11:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • North American Palladium: Desperate Times Call For Desperate Measures [View article]
    Jeffrey: what do you find so important about the relaxation of the debt/EBITDA covenant? What beyond the amendments to refund the interest paid, the increase in the rate to 19%, the $8.1 mil amending fee and the fact that it was capitalized, all as described in the article, would add to the depth of my analysis?
    Dec 19, 2013. 10:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • North American Palladium's Liquidity Squeeze [View article]
    I have updated my thoughts on PAL here: http://seekingalpha.co...
    Dec 19, 2013. 04:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Energy Fuels: Deep Value In Uranium [View article]
    Recent press release, selling another of their minority investments inherited from the Strathmore acquisition. Supports my positive comments about management and strategy: http://bit.ly/1cdCS9y
    Dec 19, 2013. 09:41 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How The Market Has Excessively Discounted IAMGOLD [View article]
    Additional disclosure: I am now long IAG.
    Dec 18, 2013. 02:13 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ideas For 2014: Short IPO (And/Or Its Components) [View article]
    Fair price; I always worry about them calling back in the borrow.
    Dec 16, 2013. 01:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It May Be Time To Short The Twitter Bubble [View article]
    If selling ads to generate revenue is the ultimate end-game, then engagement has to be the right metric for appraising this stock. The 144 character limitation says that engagement is likely to be similarly limited. Just because a site is useful or is used, does not make it necessarily valuable. That distinction seems to be lost on the mania participants.
    Dec 16, 2013. 01:45 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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