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Christopher Wallace

 
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  • Why Netflix Could Be Poised For A Big Rally [View article]
    I don’t agree with most of his thesis, but I think he could be directionally correct in the very short term. Hating NFLX is very popular now. It is heavily shorted. The selling has been justified as a response to the price increase but seems to now be overdone. I put a certain amount of belief in the notion that changing the pricing structure was done to make the streaming business saleable as a standalone (AMZN being the most likely buyer).
    Sep 27 09:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Tekmira Investors Are Missing [View article]
    George, thanks for your comments. You will note I have never quoted a target price nor a value for the stock. I have merely observed excessive investor optimism as evidenced by the recent doubling of the stock price in less than a month and the fact that during that same month the entire market cap has turned over about 6 times. My experience is that kind of excessive trading coupled with investor hype an mis-conception, usually reverts the stock back near to where it was. My put position is so puny as to be inconsequential, you needn't worry about it. Maybe it will, maybe it won't. We will both see over the next month.
    Aug 21 03:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Tekmira Investors Are Missing [View article]
    My article is correct in stating that the standard protocol is three phases of human trials and that process takes both time and money. The animal rule pathway may shorten this process and may make it less costly. But if that is the case, how much shorter and how much less? Please keep in mind that the FDA still requires three phases even under the animal pathway. (See Q.4 here: http://bit.ly/1nezfkx) The stock has doubled since August. My point is why? What material changes have happened in the last 4 weeks? The Ebola outbreak is an 8 month old event. Investors are acting as if FDA approval is around the corner, get in now before it goes way higher. Higher on what? Is there an approval coming next week? I don't think so. These drugs take years to develop. No one has made one yet that has a statistically large number of human cures on their hands. The market is acting as if news is pending that 10, or 20 or more cures will come out of Africa thanks to TKM-Ebola. This is nonsense as the company has said it is not ready to ship drug for use on humans there: http://bit.ly/1nezfkA
    The outbreak, the Animal Rule, the headlines have not materially changed the fundamental path TKM is on to develop their drug pipeline. When the outbreak is eventually contained, that too will not change the fundamentals.
    Aug 21 11:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Tekmira Investors Are Missing [View article]
    Vaccine has both a prophylactic and a therapeutic use aspect to the term. It is appropriate to refer to TKM-Ebola as an experimental vaccine in the therapeutic sense.
    Aug 21 10:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Tekmira Investors Are Missing [View article]
    Unfortunately that may not be good news. Tekmira management has never stated the drug is ready for use with infected humans. They are still studying it on primates. They must be scared spitless that this will pull the drug out too early. What if they use the drug on infected people and some don't make it? That will be interpreted not as the drug needs further development and more time to be perfected, that will be interpreted as failure in a very loud and public way. Remember, there is currently no known cure for Ebola. Tekmira itself is certainly not claiming they have the cure. They are WORKING on one. There is a huge difference. They know it takes time to perfect these things. I highly doubt they want their experimental drug to be put to the ultimate test this early in the game. Think of it this way: Hand Robert DeNiro or Meryl Streep a terrific script and ask them to go on stage tomorrow in front of hundreds and I doubt they would do it. They are among the world's greatest actors, but even the greats cannot do it without adequate time to prepare. Tekmira management has never yet stated they are ready to issue their experimental stage drug as a cure.
    Aug 21 01:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Tekmira Investors Are Missing [View article]
    Thanks for your comment, Small Pharma. You have pretty much hit the nail on the head. RNAi has great promise but has a way to go to prove itself. The management at Tekmira I am sure know this and probably cringe at the recent volatility in their stock price. They are trying to build a long road to a delivery system that could possibly treat many diseases. I doubt they are trying to build a short path to riches. But the current hype misleads investors into thinking the latter is the case.
    Aug 21 01:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Tekmira Clinical Hold Lifted [View article]
    Volatility is the name of the game here! Your point about entry and exit is spot on. Best of luck with your trade as well.
    Aug 20 08:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Tekmira Clinical Hold Lifted [View article]
    Your article would have been more appropriately titled if you had referred to a partial lift or an amendment to the hold. But then it would be less sensational.

    There is now a substantial “Ebola premium” in this stock. Longer term investors who value the entire drug pipeline and the RNAi therapeutic generally should be wary of this premium and expect it to dissipate as investors realize that an outbreak does nothing to improve the chances of a full approval, which is a necessary condition for commercial sales. Such an approval may eventually come, but the stock is acting like that approval is in the bank and around the corner.
    Aug 20 06:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Tekmira Investors Are Missing [View article]
    You sound like a good trader. What else are you doing now?
    Aug 20 06:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Tekmira Clinical Hold Lifted [View article]
    The term vaccine was not used incorrectly by the author. The term can mean both prophylactic and therapeutic.
    Aug 20 06:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Tekmira Investors Are Missing [View article]
    I would be very surprised if TKM-Ebola was not on that list. In fact, I would hate to be long at these prices if it were not. The distinction between small applications of experimental drug and its approval for widespread commercial sale continue to be lost on retail investors.
    Aug 20 05:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Tekmira Investors Are Missing [View instapost]
    I look forward to reading your article.
    Aug 20 01:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Tekmira Investors Are Missing [View instapost]
    If you think TKM-Ebola is a done deal, then you really need to do some DD. Ask yourself why the DoD is willing to put up $140 million for the development of a drug if it is already there. Risks remain with this one my friend. TKM-Ebola has not yet been proven to be efficacious. My article only seeks to point out that there is still a long way to go before this drug is ready for commercial sale. The stock is acting as if it is already there.
    Aug 20 12:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Tekmira Investors Are Missing [View article]
    Actually I am not missing that. It is the over-enthusiastic investors pushing the stock up on Ebola hype who are. The stock has not doubled this month on the rest of the pipeline.
    Aug 20 12:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Tekmira Investors Are Missing [View instapost]
    Wrong. For TKM-Ebola or any other drug to receive full FDA approval and be available for commercial sale it will have to go through Phase II and Phase III. What ever made you think that they infect people with a disease to test a drug???? Speaking of adequate research...
    Aug 20 10:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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