Searching For Value And Finding It In Today's Market - Sector By Sector [View article]
George,
The only code is the truth. There is no magic box or absolute answer to perfect valuation. IMHO, FAST Graphs will get you as close as possible, but only within a reasonable range, because that is the only honest answer. Minor deviations of value are not that material. You only need to buy within a reasonable range to be a successful investor. FAST Graphs give you that.
BTW, if you point your mouse on the dots and triangles it does pop up the prices.
Searching For Value And Finding It In Today's Market - Sector By Sector [View article]
George,
When in doubt apply a 15 PE to your best earnings estimate. Estimating fair value is never precise, but should be within a reasonable range of probability.
As to MCD, I would adore it at $73-$75, I love it at $82-$85, I like it at $88-$94, I think it is OK at $97-$102. (high-low ranges from the valuation corridor comprised of the 5 orange lines).
Searching For Value And Finding It In Today's Market - Sector By Sector [View article]
George,
First of all, remember that the fair value rangers simply default to consensus estimates. Therefore, step one is determine whether or not you believe the estimates are reasonable. Run other what if scenarios with the override option as you like.
Using MCD as an example, consensus growth is 9%. Personally, I always think in a range. Translated MCD's 9% = 8-12%, 0r 8-11%. Then I run an override at 8% growth, 10% growth etc. With each case simply point your mouse to the black triangle or dots on each orange line to pop up a range of targets.
Remember a "tool to think with." Pick a growth you like and point your mouse, then monitor closely.
Searching For Value And Finding It In Today's Market - Sector By Sector [View article]
hortonle,
Thanks for the good question. The 2% dividend choice relates to a currently easily accessible and available yield on quality stocks. This is about accepting what the market prudently offers.
The 4.5% number is much higher than blue chips offer. Maybe certain MLP's, REIT's etc., but not from blue chip stalwarts (PG, JNJ, KO, etc.).
Also, growth yield is also a consideration. The companies raise their dividends. The 2% number is simply my baseline. For certain sectors, I have lowered it to 1%, which I will disclose in the future articles. This is more relevant to total return based on growth.
Searching For Value And Finding It In Today's Market - Sector By Sector [View article]
munibill,
Thanks. Regarding cash, it is really a judgment call. The point of this series is that value can be found. However, a correction could make cash a great investment. It all depends on how long it takes to occur. Opportunity cost is a real cost.
Dividend Challengers: 17 Increases Expected By August 30 [View article]
I think the move from Challenger to Contender is a big deal. Even bigger than Contender to Champion--Thoughts?
Chuck
Dividend Champions: 8 Increases Expected By Labor Day [View article]
I am long several of these, and really appreciate the updates.
Regards,
Chuck
Searching For Value And Finding It In Today's Market - Sector By Sector [View article]
The only code is the truth. There is no magic box or absolute answer to perfect valuation. IMHO, FAST Graphs will get you as close as possible, but only within a reasonable range, because that is the only honest answer. Minor deviations of value are not that material. You only need to buy within a reasonable range to be a successful investor. FAST Graphs give you that.
BTW, if you point your mouse on the dots and triangles it does pop up the prices.
Chuck
Searching For Value And Finding It In Today's Market - Sector By Sector [View article]
When in doubt apply a 15 PE to your best earnings estimate. Estimating fair value is never precise, but should be within a reasonable range of probability.
As to MCD, I would adore it at $73-$75, I love it at $82-$85, I like it at $88-$94, I think it is OK at $97-$102. (high-low ranges from the valuation corridor comprised of the 5 orange lines).
Regards,
Chuck
Searching For Value And Finding It In Today's Market - Sector By Sector [View article]
First of all, remember that the fair value rangers simply default to consensus estimates. Therefore, step one is determine whether or not you believe the estimates are reasonable. Run other what if scenarios with the override option as you like.
Using MCD as an example, consensus growth is 9%. Personally, I always think in a range. Translated MCD's 9% = 8-12%, 0r 8-11%. Then I run an override at 8% growth, 10% growth etc. With each case simply point your mouse to the black triangle or dots on each orange line to pop up a range of targets.
Remember a "tool to think with." Pick a growth you like and point your mouse, then monitor closely.
I hope that helps,
Chuck
Searching For Value And Finding It In Today's Market - Sector By Sector [View article]
Thanks.
Chuck
Searching For Value And Finding It In Today's Market - Sector By Sector [View article]
Thanks, I appreciate the testimonial.
Chuck
Searching For Value And Finding It In Today's Market - Sector By Sector [View article]
Thanks for the good question. The 2% dividend choice relates to a currently easily accessible and available yield on quality stocks. This is about accepting what the market prudently offers.
The 4.5% number is much higher than blue chips offer. Maybe certain MLP's, REIT's etc., but not from blue chip stalwarts (PG, JNJ, KO, etc.).
Also, growth yield is also a consideration. The companies raise their dividends. The 2% number is simply my baseline. For certain sectors, I have lowered it to 1%, which I will disclose in the future articles. This is more relevant to total return based on growth.
Regards,
Chuck
Searching For Value And Finding It In Today's Market - Sector By Sector [View article]
Thanks. Regarding cash, it is really a judgment call. The point of this series is that value can be found. However, a correction could make cash a great investment. It all depends on how long it takes to occur. Opportunity cost is a real cost.
Regards,
Chuck
Searching For Value And Finding It In Today's Market - Sector By Sector [View article]
Thanks. Good luck.
Chuck
Searching For Value And Finding It In Today's Market - Sector By Sector [View article]
IBM for conservative, maybe EMC for aggressive. No real EMC dividend history yet.
Chuck
Searching For Value And Finding It In Today's Market - Sector By Sector [View article]
Thanks. I am also screening Canadian stocks in each sector.
Chuck
Searching For Value And Finding It In Today's Market - Sector By Sector [View article]
Thanks. And for sharing those good insights. Regarding energy and Tech, I agree, and the pending articles will support our views.
Chuck
Searching For Value And Finding It In Today's Market - Sector By Sector [View article]
I appreciate the kind words.
Chuck
Searching For Value And Finding It In Today's Market - Sector By Sector [View article]
Thanks for the priceless compliments.
Chuck