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Chuck Carnevale's  Instablog

Charles (Chuck) C. Carnevale – Co-Founder and Chief Investment Officer, has been working in the securities industry since 1970. He has been a partner with a private NYSE member firm, the President of a NASD firm, and a Vice President, Regional Marketing Director for a major American Stock... More
My business:
EDMP, Inc.
My blog:
The Markets Up Chuck
  • Why a Stock Market Crash Doesn’t Matter
    Market Generalities
    When reading Seeking Alpha today, I couldn’t help notice that the most popular article is: Why the Stock Market Should Crash, by Charles Hugh Smith. With all due respect to Mr. Smith, and all the other doomsayers out there, I frankly just don’t get it. In my opinion, fear is a negative emotion that causes more harm than good. My favorite acronym for FEAR is: False Evidence Appearing Real.
     
    People, who are worried about whether the stock market will crash or not, are worried about a generality.   In contrast, the world’s most successful investors are known to deal solely with specifics. Investing giants like Warren Buffett and Peter Lynch are on record as ignorers of the general stock market. Instead, they are only interested in the specific companies they own.
     
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    Nov 20 04:38 pm | Link | Comment!
  • L-3 Communications: Growing dividend – Yet Bargain Priced !
    Historical Norms

    L-3 Communications (LLL), the sixth largest defense company in the United States remains undervalued in our view. Even though L-3’s fundamentals remain strong, the market seems to be ignoring this well positioned defense company. Currently trading at a mere 10.6 PE ratio its valued below most of its peers.

    L-3 continues to win lucrative contracts that validate their businesses viability. In spite of continued earnings growth right through the recession, L-3 trades at the lowest PE ratio it ever has since going public in 1998. When viewed from the perspective of our Fundamentals- at- a-glance research tool this gross undervaluation is clearly evident. 

    Figure one below shows that L-3 has historically been capitalized at 20x earnings or higher (normal PE ratio of 20- blue line with asterisk). This implies a normal or fair market value of $150.40 at 20 times consensus 2009 EPS of $7.52 (See Box in figure one). 
     
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    Nov 18 03:20 pm | Link | Comment!
  • Buffett & Gates at Columbia – The Markets Have Bottomed!
    Warren Buffett told an audience of cheering Columbia University students last night that the worst of the financial global crisis is over. Moreover, he also said that stocks have bottomed out. His advice was not to pass on something attractive today. He was joined by Bill Gates, who agreed with his sentiments.
     
    What struck me about watching the interview was the strong faith in our country and its future they both displayed. Both men acknowledged that mistakes can and will be made. However, they both are confident that the free enterprise system, we live under will survive and prosper. Neither man would forecast the short run. However, both held sensible and insightful positive long-term views.  
     
    I thought it might be entertaining to look at the companies both of these business giants started and control from the perspective of our earnings correlated Fundamentals-at-a-Glance research tool. Even more fun is to examine them first over 20 years, a real long run, then over the past 10 years, a shorter long run.
     
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    Nov 13 12:30 pm | Link | Comment!
  • ITT Educational Services, Inc.(ESI): Strong Earnings Growth at a Reasonable Price

    Expanding Minds an Expanding Business

    Thanks to the recession, more and more people nationwide are making the “smarter” move. They are going back to school, that is, in order to increase their value and attractiveness in a distressed workplace environment. This is proving to be a boom for ITT Educational Services, Inc. (ESI), one of the leading post secondary education providers in the country. ITT Educational Services, Inc. (ESI) is headquartered in Carmel, Indiana.

    Traditionally, ITT Educational Services, Inc. (ESI) provided technology-oriented degree programs to help students develop skills and knowledge they can use to win jobs in numerous fields. More recently, they have expanded their offerings to include new associate and bachelor degree programs as part of their growth strategy. In addition to diversifying their curriculums, they are also expanding geographically.

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    Nov 11 12:40 pm | Link | Comment!
  • United Technologies (UTX): attractive dividend and peer outperformance

    United Technologies (UTX) is a diversified global provider of high-technology products and services for building systems and aircraft. From an operating perspective, this stalwart blue-chip has weathered the recession better than other well-known peers. Although earnings and market price sagged in 2008, both are recovering quickly as the economy and stock market improves.

    When viewed from the perspective of our Fundamentals-at-a-glance earnings and price correlated research tool, United Technologies’ (UTX) operating excellence versus its peers’ is clearly evident. Figure 1 shows United Technologies’ (UTX) stock price since 1996 overlaid on their earnings growth. As you can see, stock price tracked earnings very closely over the years. When the price (black line) rose above the earnings line (green line with white triangles) it always returned to the earnings justified price and vice-versa.

    Fig. 1. UTX 15yr EPS Growth and Stock Price Correlation
    Fig. 1. UTX 15yr EPS Growth and Stock Price Correlation

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    Nov 06 11:32 am | Link | Comment!
  • Berkshire’s Burlington - Vintage Buffett.
    The largest acquisition in Berkshire Hathaway history is, in our opinion, vintage BuffettThe Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp. (BNI) press release spun it as follows:
     
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    Nov 03 02:08 pm | Link | Comment!
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StockTalks

  • I view stocks as ownership in operating businesses,and I see myself as a long-term shareholder of the company. So,I only ask hows business.
    Jun 08, 2009
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