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ChuckJones

 
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  • The iPhone Channel: Stay Tuned [View article]
    Michael, I guess you would only be satisfied if there was no channel inventory? No business, even Blackberry, runs a business this way.
    Oct 27, 2014. 06:20 PM | 21 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Carl Icahn Is (Kinda) Right About Apple Stock [View article]
    Thank you for reading and calling out my iPhone ASP article. If you'd like to read a detailed by product analysis of Icahn's assumptions here is a link to a note I wrote.

    http://onforb.es/1vkP55C
    Oct 13, 2014. 01:05 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Carl Icahn Is (Kinda) Right About Apple Stock [View article]
    If you would like a fairly detailed analysis by product line of Icahn's assumptions here is a link to an article I wrote for Forbes.com last week.

    http://onforb.es/1vkP55C
    Oct 13, 2014. 01:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How High Can Icahn Drive Apple Shares? [View article]
    If you would like to read a fairly detailed analysis by product line of Icahn's projections here is a link to a post I wrote for Forbes.com.

    http://onforb.es/1vkP55C
    Oct 12, 2014. 08:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Activist Carl Icahn Overly Aggressive On His EPS Estimate? [View article]
    If you would like a fairly detailed analysis by product line of Icahn's assumptions here is a link to an article I wrote for Forbes.com.

    http://onforb.es/1vkP55C
    Oct 12, 2014. 08:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Carl Icahn's Valuation Of Apple Is Too High [View article]
    If you'd like a fairly detailed analysis by product line of Icahn's assumptions here is a link to an article I wrote for Forbes.com

    http://onforb.es/1vkP55C
    Oct 12, 2014. 07:59 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Carl Icahn's Valuation Of Apple Is Too High [View article]
    FYI, Ichan's position is over $5 billion.
    Oct 12, 2014. 07:58 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Analysis Of Apple's Gross Margin Through The Past 4 iPhone Product Cycles [View article]
    I agree with you that gross margins are not the only way to try and tell if there are pricing pressures but it can be helpful.

    Devices ASP can give one indication but product mix can affect that. One situation could be declining ASPs due to lower priced products with rising margins. That may an instance that competition is not increasing but due to geographies lower priced units are being sold. Or it could be pricing pressure.

    Another thought is how investors react to changing margins. As can be seen when Apple's margins declined the stock took a big hit. When they stabilized the stock has run.
    Aug 21, 2014. 11:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Analysis Of Apple's Gross Margin Through The Past 4 iPhone Product Cycles [View article]
    I agree that net profit and margins are important but so are gross margins. It is one of the best ways to tell if the company is experiencing pricing pressure and with the swing factor it provides to the bottom line can make a large difference to profitability.
    Aug 19, 2014. 06:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Analysis Of Apple's Gross Margin Through The Past 4 iPhone Product Cycles [View article]
    I have the actual dollars spent in my model (they are provided in the 10Qs and 10Ks) but have not looked at them in detail. They fluctuate as you would expect and tend to be around the same levels as the accruals but since they don't directly affect the income statement (but should impact cash flows) I haven't spent time analyzing them.
    Aug 19, 2014. 06:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Analysis Of Apple's Gross Margin Through The Past 4 iPhone Product Cycles [View article]
    Check out Apple's latest 10-Q, page 21.
    They title it "Accruals for product warranty"

    I believe it is how much they estimate warranty costs will be for the products they have sold in the quarter. As you will see from the table it is different than the actual amount that is spent in a quarter "Cost of warranty claims".

    Thanks for asking as I received another question about the definition.
    Aug 19, 2014. 02:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Deep Dive Into Apple's Gross Margins And What It Means Going Forward [View article]
    You are correct that the FQ1 and FQ2 2012 margins were not sustainable.

    Great question about FX but hard to factor what it would be without company input. If Japan is the biggest factor (it is only 7% to 8% of total revenue) but has seen its operating margin move down about 200-300 basis points the past few quarters then it may not be a huge factor.

    If gross margin does come in at the mid-point of 37.5% it will probably be due to multiple factors, some of which you point out. We don't know what type of promotions the company may implement, especially overseas, and what will happen with component prices to name a couple of other reasons.
    Apr 29, 2014. 12:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deep Dive Into Apple's Gross Margins And What It Means Going Forward [View article]
    Unfortunately I did sell my shares before earnings (thankfully they were bought at much lower prices). From my analysis (which was way off) I was concerned that guidance would disappoint and take the stock down a leg short-term. Was off on the number of iPhones and gross margin. I wasn't surprised by the share buyback or increased dividend (but did only expect about a 5% increase) but did not see the stock split coming.
    Apr 29, 2014. 12:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Deep Dive Into Apple's Gross Margins And What It Means Going Forward [View article]
    I agree with your assessment on Apple buyers and sellers.
    Apr 29, 2014. 11:24 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's June Quarter Guidance Could Cause A Downdraft In The Shares [View article]
    Actually I've had six comments in replies to comments since Apple reported earnings owning up to underestimating gross margins (were help by lower warranty accruals by $0.33 but Apple still had a significant beat even with that adjustment) and international iPhone sales doing much better than I expected (and not impacting margins). I'll repeat one a portion of one of my earlier comments: There is a saying I learned a long time ago that "he who lives by the crystal ball winds up eating glass sometimes". And this time I did so best to learn from it and move forward.
    Apr 26, 2014. 12:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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