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Claus Vistesen  

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  • Did A Butterfly Flap Its Wings In Corporate Bond Markets Last Week? [View article]
    For the record, I should mention that I hold shares in Aberdeen Asset Management. Didn't think of adding this to the article originally posted on my blog.
    Jun 25, 2015. 08:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Italian Economy Remains Stuck [View article]
    I don't post my articles on SA, the editors do James ... so yes, sorry that there is not much detail. The main point is to show the chart really, which should say it all.

    Sep 18, 2014. 08:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Big Disconnect Between Leverage And Spreads [View article]
    Hi Gestaltist,

    The main analysis refers only to corporate bonds which is to say debt securities issued by corporates in the primary market. However, in order to get the full picture you obviously also need to factor in securitised products, but since such products are ultimately feeding on primary issuances (i.e. you can't, yet, securitise thin air), primary issuance of corporate debt securities should remain the key focus. Covenant based loans, credit lines etc are also relevant though in terms of gauging the general froth.

    Mar 26, 2014. 05:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Big Disconnect Between Leverage And Spreads [View article]
    Hi Guys,

    Thanks for the comments. Interesting point on the small companies Drew. It would be interesting to get some information on the degree of market fragmentation alongside the SME vs large company axis.

    For example in Europe it is well documented that low interest rates have not benefited the SME sector (largely because they can't issue debt and have to borrow from banks) while larger companies have been able to issue and/or re-finance debt at very low interest rates. The debt markets in the US are obviously different and better geared towards corporate debt issuance, but if you are relying on bank loans and credit lines to fund yourself chances are that you have not been part of this boom in leverage.

    Interesting and important point on mark-to-market 276c. If you look at the rollover schedule the US has a big one coming up in 2017/18 just at the time when the Fed will be done with its hiking cycle ;) ... maybe we really have to wait that long for it to go pop or perhaps the market will price it sooner.

    Mar 25, 2014. 12:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Negative Current Account In Japan Makes A Short JGB Trade Worth Considering [View article]

    Thanks for you comments. @ Jeffrey, I think owning the Nikkei 225 (or a more alpha minded stock selection portfolio in Japan) makes sense. Just remember to hedge out currency risk.

    I agree with you too Mickey that timing is key here, but this is exactly where the current account deficit comes in. It is a necessary but not sufficient condition for JGB volatility. Investors need to watch closely this year how yields (and the currency) reacts to the economy opening up an external deficit.

    Mar 14, 2014. 03:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yield Bubble Intact And Inflating [View article]
    Sorry about that User427, ... I do not tag these things with tickers.

    Sep 10, 2013. 08:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yield Bubble Intact And Inflating [View article]
    Maybe, but look at the back-up in short rates with the US 2y storming out of range. This is going to hurt chaps!

    Sep 5, 2013. 08:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When Safe Havens Fall [View article]
    He he... who is left then?
    Feb 26, 2013. 07:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Curious Case Of Liquidity Traps And Missing Collateral: Part 2 [View article]
    Thanks a lot for the responses, very interesting. I will come in with some more in depth commentary later.

    Jul 31, 2012. 04:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Devon: On Sale At $56 [View article]
    Thanks for the article, I am long DVN and still a happy long term owner despite getting in at a relatively rich 66 (based on the last 6m price action).

    One question that has been nagging me is whether the company is too conservative in its future capex plans which, as far as I can see from various presentations, include almost no additional dry gas but exclusively LNG and oil.

    1) Am I right here
    2) If so, is this smart. Clearly the LNG play since this will be a major US export market on my projections. Will they lag on dry gas when natty starts to recover (which it will of course). Obviously, reading through their actual current holdings, they are already a big player.

    Jun 15, 2012. 08:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Show A Healthy Respect For Central Bank Playbooks [View article]
    Hi Tom,

    All of the above? Clearly, the Fed swap line is a classic tool to pull out if the market gets caught in unduly panic mode (but it assumes obviously that the problem is dollar liquidity). The Fed should do some USD swap lines with India instead :).

    As for Twist 2 I think the market would be underwhelmed by this as it is not, strictly speaking, QE as it does not expand the balance sheet. Also, another round of twist could actually invert the yield curve if it pushes down long end yields even further relative to short term rates already pinned to the floor.

    Jun 11, 2012. 05:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • For Smart Investors, It's Not Where People Shop, But How They Pay [View article]
    You guys might also want to have a look at Monitise (Moni) which is a UK mobile phone payment company. Visa has a 13% stake so they are aware where the game is going I think.

    Full disc: I own MONI.

    May 13, 2012. 09:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Curious Case Of Liquidity Traps And Missing Collateral: Part 1 [View article]
    Thanks for the comments chaps, ... I will contribute more later.
    Apr 17, 2012. 05:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake Energy Is A Company In Transition [View article]
    From what I have gathered from the smart equity analysts here (I am a macro guy) is that DVN is a much smarter play here. Good balance sheet, sound management (from what I can see) and strong base in both natty and oil. I think long Natty at these levels through a good equity play is akin to a very long dated very cheap call option.

    I could be wrong of course.

    full disc: I own DVN.
    Feb 22, 2012. 05:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Debunking the Demographics Irrelevance Proposition [View article]
    You are right Lentil and others have done plenty of resesarch here. I it called the "fertility trap"

    May 2, 2011. 06:34 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment