Clay Kime

Why There's No Such Thing As a Housing Bubble

Dear t ton:

As mentioned in resposes to other comments above, this is just a report. All the things you mentioned are valid factors and theories, but how would you quantify them for objective analysis? Consumer confidence is also a significant factor. It's real, it has an impact, but how do you measure it? Rent vs. Buy decisions are not universal.

This report is focused on the common denominators which surfaced from the data. It is not a "topical" report; That is that we did not set out to assemble arguements to support a pre-conceived notion. We went in searh of facts not similarities of trend lines and bell-curves with events in 1952 or other historical periods.

I am in complete agreement with your observation that there was a significant amount of irresponsibility with some borrowers and their lenders. The bank's substitute trustee will likely visit them. But again, I ask, how can one identify good loans from bad loans? Some will still be able to pay heir mortgage from a bad loan and others may not be able to meet their obligations from a good loan. Unfortunately, the measure of this factor will have to wait until the forclosures unfold.

Lastly, and again, The title for this report was concocted by Seeking Alpha, not me.

Sorry you didn't otherwise like the report.

Best of good fortune.

Clay