Clay King

Growth at reasonable price, value, contrarian, dividend investing
Clay King
Growth at reasonable price, value, contrarian, dividend investing
Contributor since: 2011
Once again, sa with old news.
Back in 2011 I wrote an article on CELG with the title that eps should double by 2015. From the looks of it I may be wrong, more like 2016, but more than double (accounting for stock split). However the price has more than doubled, so I remain happy, as it has really tripled. I continue to hold and actually added to that position once or twice, as well as traded it a tad.
I read the news!
I do indeed Chistinebitg, live in a "strange" world......found over the years to be somewhat contrary is is be successful. Lots of fact and charts that illustrate the past, as in back-testing, leaves out the human element in investing, the one trait a computer has difficultly in analyzing. And thanks, after a career in portfolio mgt. and time as a Chief Investment Officer at two different capital mgt firms, my lifestyle is quite set with an ample portfolio, actually 4 of them.
Now having said that, nothing I said earlier is against Chuck in any way. I think he does a very good job at writing articles on this site, I guess primarily to boost his business. I've even bought one of the many stocks he has recommended based on his articles. But I must admit, I did not read that article either, just saw the title and researched it on my own. bought it, and later thanked Chuck via Pm for the idea, though I did tell him that if I had been watching it, I would have bought it about 20 points lower, but I didn't have it on my radar screen as I was heavily overweighted in that sector.
And best of luck to you in your investing also......but, like I tell most folks, learn to make your opinions on your own......other's opinions can plant a seed of doubt or greed in one's mind that can destroy the investment process......facts and figures, ok, opinions, not so much.
Clay
No, my thinking is closed to most others opinions, which I have found over my 40 years of investing to be mostly random and largely useless to my investing. I rely on facts, valuations, and my own ability to buy and sell. I learned to do it myself long ago, and have never regretted it. There are a precious few around that I will look at the name being mentioned, and perhaps some facts concerning that name, but as to the opinion to buy/sell, I ignore. Seems I recall the great Jimmy Rogers making a statement quite similar one time...
Oh, my mind is wide open, just not to junk. Glad I got you your laugh of the day.....
Could be,but my comments were about the title and opening comments....didn't read the article,.....heck, I rarely do....hate to be influenced by others thinking......
Although I somewhat agree that it is a market of stocks, that only seems to work in a meaningful way when buying a stock that has gone awry, and the value hits a buy zone, and then advances when the bull market continues to advance. The old saying that all boats rise and fall with the tide is largely true.......fighting the trend and the fed is a losers game......unless one is truly a long term investor. I buy value when I see deep value, and only when I still see further market advances on the horizon........hard to fight times when the vast majority of stocks decline during a bear market, so I usually sell a little at a time when individual values become overvalued.............
Despite the wise words of WB, I prefer a great company at a great price, skt is missing out on the latter.........soooo, I'll pass.
Nothing is a no brainer......especially in the stock market.
Interesting. The one here, though I don't go very often, is fine.....the wife just doesn't care for that kind of food. I've been to a couple of Mickey Dee's that I would never sit foot in again, even emailed corporate about them they were so nasty....
Well......yea.
Not yet Business, so often, seems to go around politics......but no, not really too worried about that part......more about worldwide growth and the long advance of this bull market.....
bBut, JD does go better with Coke, and WB drinks cherry coke by the case...
change usually is good as old mgt. gets complacent............... change for the sake of change is usually not good, just confusion which actually sets a company back further. Saw plenty of that in my corporate days..........
Yea, nothing like a quick kick to the rear to get the ball rolling...
Yea, I agree about the cuts, seems it will have to be bigger and better than that to turn things around much. I'm holding off until stock goes down a bunch or something good happens (without taking the stock up too much), so I prefer for the stock to come down.....
No doubt to your statement. However, when I wrote that PEP article three yrs ago, many felt that KO was such a better buy, but I felt the value in PEP was so much better, at the time.......and it was. Don't know about you, but I buy stocks for both dividends and growth based on risk I'm taking at the time....PEP won out, don't really care what they sell or make.....
Kevin,
Thanks for the kind words. I'm like you in that many of the articles on here generate tons of comments on subjects not worthy enough to even read....though I might be biased. The truth be told this article was rejected as it was "about personal finance", until I complained and had to add the list of stocks, which I had no intention of doing as it had little to do with my message.......I don't write much, some 60 articles in 3-4 years as I don't write for money, just when I see something to write about, and in fact, find that my time is better spent looking for opportunities than spending it writing about something I already know about, but do it just to share most of the time.....really, if someone is so great at investing to show-off here, why are they writing so much....ah, but I digress....
I'm 4 years retired, and take nothing from my IRA accounts, and when forced to, I will simply transfer it over to my personal account to reinvest. Keep spending to a level under budget, plan for the unexpected, don't chase yield or stocks, and have a plan (and stick to it).
The very first article that I wrote for SA was http://seekingalpha.co..., which was about dividend cuts, and how they presented an "possible" opportunity. Still think that, and always will. The more something is said such as "I sell a dividend cut" becomes accepted, it will almost always be wrong......that is one of the reasons why contrary opinion is usefull in the market place.....Oh, yea, I loaded up on GE back then, and then also bought Century Tel a year or so ago. I did own PBI, wich cut and sold off, I did not buy, but later sold for a profit when it rallied back, my mistake for not buying more, but something told me that at the point that did not wish to add but sell given the chance. Popular "wisdom" is usually not good wisdom......
I would not call my update article on MCD exactly high praise, but then I bought mine long ago, with a 450% gain in price so far, with a yoc of over 15%, so I can't complain that I paid too much, in fact, it has outperformed the market by a factor or way over two.......yea, I';ll stick with it........Guess one just has to know when to buy when others are selling....
Don't disagree......it's one of my lower cost, low weighted speculations......but then, all that AAA stuff a few years ago wasn't so good....so much for ratings...the track record? a better indicator....
Yea, my cost is mid teens, buy still hold it.
David,............true enough. Sadly, I did not purchase there....
The dividend is covered,75% by free cash flow, so I'm not too worried, but as I said, buy it for the yield if one feels that future growth is to come. Again, a small position for a good yield. There's no such thing as a sleep well at night equity.........there is only a fake belief that they exist since one can lose a years worth of dividends in most stocks in just a singe day's decline....well, like today's 264 point setback....
Steve, I really don't know who or what will follow Wenner, hopefully, might even be better.......Mybiggest concern with this company is the lack of historical stability, so therefore my underweight advice......I'm not even 1% on a current price, much less a YOC, which to me is useless, to tell the truth.
You're welcome.
Not so sure about the meat problem, things like this tend to get solved and life goes on.....like Targets coming back from the creditcard mess......a lot of MCD's last earning report was related to China.....the company is a cash cow....
The program would cost you 25 grand per year......
I have it on an Excel spreadsheet which I downloaded years ago from a database, and I update the data monthly, maually.