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View Clay Mahaffey's Comments
Teekay Tankers: Potential Dividend Play With Upside
correct $0.11 last quarter; amount is variable based on cash flow less some fixed expenses but essentially 99% payout.
May 3, 2012. 09:37 AM
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Intellectual Property: Explosive Growth Potential But Can You Play The Game?
I ignored the ring tone business only to simplify things. I agree it has potential and is gaining support.
VRNG section understated some elements of the VRNG patent case. First the 2nd District is a 'rocket' and the conventional defenses I mentioned are not available in the Court. The case is in process now and a final decision is to be made by October/November. In that case the NPV calculations I showed with 2-3 years to agreement are wrong. The NPV of the settlement alternatives are much too low and should be close to the actual settlement, whatever that is, rather than discounted. The fully diluted share count post merger is a little too low, but current shareholders have 4.8 million warrants I missed. To quote Mark Cuban "the value of the IP is impossible to calculate". Plus he may get sued himself on IP he owns. The IP payout here is a binomial : either zero, or millions. The IP payout is x times zero plus (1-x) times a big number. Aside from the merits of the case, I believe Mgt has the upper hand in the sense they have, or can raise, enough cash to see this thing through and also fund the ring tone business. To answer the question, 'can you play the patent game?', the answer is yes for VRNG. Whether to buy or sell is a measure of your appetite for risk.
May 2, 2012. 03:11 PM
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