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Clayton Reeves

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  • Housing Prices Set to Plummet [View article]
    Thanks for reading. The true market bottom will either be found a) quickly and painfully, without government intervention or b) slowly and painfully, with some additional credit or prop to try and convince electorates that the government is helping them. Prices look to drop another 5-10% in the next two years, so there will definitely be deals to be had.
    Sep 29, 2010. 04:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Housing Prices Set to Plummet [View article]
    Thanks for reading. I definitely agree. I am not sure how they expected the tax credit to positively impact housing over the long term... unless they extended it forever. Recent news in the Case Shiller reinforce your gloomy depression view, although I am hoping it will cap out at five years as opposed to ten.
    Sep 29, 2010. 04:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tepper vs. Rosenberg: Are They Both Right? [View article]
    Thanks for the comments, and well said. It is "painful" to not short the market, but advisable when you look at the potential influx of greenbacks in the near future. Who could bet against stocks going up in the short term if QE2 hits? This macro environment is a playground I wouldn't take your kids to!
    Sep 29, 2010. 04:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tepper vs. Rosenberg: Are They Both Right? [View article]
    Thanks for your comments. Of course it was a charge on the taxpayers in the interest of "stability," but that is what our elected officials chose to do. I'm not arguing the moralities of the easing, just saying it accomplished whatever goals it was meant for.

    I also agree that natural selection should be in play, and further agree that those bankers should have been held accountable for terrible, borderline criminally negligent decisions... but they would've just signed on at another bank the next day. It's a private society that has figured out how to operate the greatest Ponzi scheme in history.
    Sep 29, 2010. 04:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China Pushes U.S. Pressure Points [View article]
    Thanks for your comments. Totally right about the fact that the second largest economy in the world should float their currency. It is absolutely absurd to peg. I agree to a certain extent about the mercantilism comment, but I think China will learn to be JUST flexible enough to keep attracting companies from abroad. As for a trade war, you're right, they don't have enough domestic demand to sustain growth if global trade slows to a standstill.

    I disagree that the US will be larger in 2030, I just don't see it. I think housing will produce a general drag for the next 5-10 years, and that breakthroughs in technology will be the only thing keeping us in the hunt.

    Now, it all depends on how China works to increase domestic consumption and evolve their economy into a more developed, open, self sustaining engine. Seeing as how China always has Chinese interests at heart, I think they'll do this eventually.
    Sep 29, 2010. 04:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China Pushes U.S. Pressure Points [View article]
    Thanks for reading, Colin. The problem with this analogy is that the United States is no longer the end all, be all, playground bully. We don't have the resources to fight the mean kid without help.

    The answer is multilateral, with a united front using Brazil and the EU to present China with more than just American interests. The answer to your riddle, is that the mean kid gets confronted by a large group of the other kids, united against a playground pest and they threaten to stomp him if he keeps up with his antics.
    Sep 29, 2010. 04:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China Pushes U.S. Pressure Points [View article]
    Thanks for reading, Charlie. Of course I understand the game is rigged... since I have written about that rigging very recently. Adding more rigging to the game won't fix it, and that is what these restrictions will amount to.

    "The current game is destroying us. Currency manipulation, import restrictions, intellectual property theft, you name it - it's all going on and it's destroying us." I'm not sure how congress passing trade restrictions helps ANY of this. Intellectual property theft? What do tariffs have to do with that? This bill is just doing something for the sake of doing something.

    The solution is a multi-lateral approach, including the G20 to plan out and schedule a plan of attack. Brazil's real hit its highest mark since December this week, enlist them. China's manipulation hurts Germany's export heavy economy just as much as it hurts us, have them join the fight. The lone ranger, cowboy, bully techniques of the Bush era will not work. I would rather do nothing than have union backed Congressmen make my foreign policy decisions.

    Plus, Congress waving their fists is no more an answer than not doing anything at all. They aren't even going to vote on it in the Senate until after the elections. It is political posturing and will most likely amount to nothing... I can only assume you are intelligent enough to realize that.
    Sep 29, 2010. 04:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Confidence Remains Low - Which Is Good for Investors [View article]
    This is like saying low earnings is a good thing, because it means the company can make more money in the future. I don't buy into this frame of thought, CBP.

    It might be a contrarian's market, but it also reeks of being pushed more by macro events than fundamentals, which makes it hard to pick your spots. I don't think the consumer info was a good sign at all.
    Sep 28, 2010. 02:22 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Aug. Housing Starts: +10.5% to 598K vs. 545K expected and 541K (revised from 544K) last month. Permits +1.8% to 569K vs. 560K expected and 559K last month.  [View news story]
    This is a non event. I have "started" to make a billion dollars today, I'm just not going to finish for awhile... what a joke.
    Sep 21, 2010. 10:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Far Will Geithner Get With China on the Renminbi? [View article]
    Exactly, and he has too much of a personal agenda. The Chinese don't care about American problems, but they would respond to a plan that would benefit them in the long run. I think an older, more responsible/conservative individual not directly associated with the current administration would be a much better ambassador.

    Geithner sounds like an angry step child that wants a bigger allowance.
    Sep 20, 2010. 02:11 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Far Will Geithner Get With China on the Renminbi? [View article]
    "An adjustment to the exchange rate regime is just one the policy reforms necessary to build a more sustainable growth model in China."

    I couldn't agree more, and I think it is something that needs to be addressed sooner rather than later. They can't continue to focus on low cost manufacturing forever, and although there will be frictional losses from their economic transition/evolution, it needs to be done just as a baby teethes or learns to walk. It might not feel good, but for long term sustainable growth it must be done. Good read.
    Sep 20, 2010. 12:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Chinese 'Manipulate' Their Currency to Our Advantage [View article]
    I think you ignore the main issue here. The problem isn't that China is selling us cheap goods and we are complaining, the problem is that the game is fixed against an American worker that is finding it increasingly difficult to find a job. This reflects in growth, which manifests in consumer sentiment and helps stifle any recovery here at home. Whenever a country imposes trade restrictions (and the peg IS a form of subsidy, have no doubt) then there is a loss to the world as a whole.

    The only people that the peg is benefiting are those that live and work in China. Consumers benefit, but the "small manufacturing base" you talk about nonchalantly is actually pretty important to the rest of the economy as a whole. I really think this article is suffering from tunnel vision.
    Sep 16, 2010. 08:27 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Housing Double Dip Is Here [View article]
    Of course, if prices have gone up... they will keep going up, right? According to the Cash Shiller index? No, they won't. Also, in June year on year prices were up 3.6% Q2 after a decrease in the first quarter... so it certainly hasn't been a smooth trend upwards.

    A couple of points: CS has a two month lag, there was a government tax credit program that propped up prices and there are plenty of other factors coming into play here. The Case Shiller Index is backwards looking and only looks at twenty metro areas, anyways.
    Sep 16, 2010. 04:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Three Reasons to Bet on Europe [View article]
    A contrarian view on Europe to be sure, but I feel that looking forward the "engines" of your analysis might sputter. Germany is overly export dependent and if the Euro strengthens (as it has recently) in response to either Chinese pressure or flight from the dollar, I expect their surplus will suffer greatly. Europe does not have enough home grown demand to grow without outside help (US, China).

    Also, I'd wonder what you feel the effects of fiscal austerity will be on Great Britain and other belt tightening nations, where increases in growth estimates will be rare. I do appreciate the optimistic view, but I would caution against relying on Eastern Europe and exports to hold up in the near term.
    Sep 16, 2010. 02:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Two reports showing flat home prices and an inventory oversupply tell Diana Olick that the housing double-dip is here: "Given the combination of the expiration of the home buyer tax credit and the increasing number of loans moving to final foreclosure, we knew that home prices overall would take a hit, but it would take a while. Well, we're here."  [View news story]
    How is this news? These indicators were in place over a month ago...
    Sep 15, 2010. 09:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment