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Clayton Reeves

 
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  • Is Cisco Undervalued? [View article]
    Just because Cisco is a larger company, does not mean they automatically deserve a lower discount rate. The 11% represents my assumption for the appropriate level of risk for Cisco, which is based on their weighted average cost of capital.

    Thanks for reading!
    Aug 20 12:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Low Can Housing Go? [View article]
    .....and enter from stage right, our trusty NAHB confidence indicator dropping to a 17-month low of 13.

    People who don't think housing is on the way down have lost grip with reality.

    bit.ly/bGsaSa
    Aug 16 11:03 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Low Can Housing Go? [View article]
    John, I totally agree. Prices will also languish as volume decreases. The reason I didn't put a reference to this in my article, is because I do not have strong convictions on how MUCH prices will decrease. It is also a more regional metric, and therefore I felt it was best to leave out a specific number. However, it is just as important to the overall housing picture.

    Thanks for reading and commenting!
    Aug 11 05:33 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Transocean's Q2 Disappoints on Gulf Spill [View article]
    In their defense, it is a short term bearish outlook (one to three months), which I don't think is necessarily a bad call. Personally, I am long term extreme bull on RIG and short term cautious bear.

    I don't see a catalyst for RIG to increase in price over the short term with oil decreasing in price due to economic concerns and the inconsistencies we are hearing regarding RIG's potential Horizon liabilities.
    Aug 11 12:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cramer's Stop Trading! The Fed Said Good Things. Buy (8/10/10) [View article]
    Cramer is Bernanke's handmaiden. How could he have drawn this conclusion from the FOMC announcement? If anything, the announcement was a reaffirmation that the Fed really has run out of ideas... if they even had any good ones to begin with. Sell.
    Aug 11 11:55 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apollo Group Is a Great Buy [View article]
    I think this is definitely an option if their shares remain so low. However, if they do remain public, the catalyst for a stock boost would come in the form of a resolution on the side of the government that is less stringent than the general markets are anticipating. I believe this was hinted at in the recent NPRM.

    Thanks for reading!
    Aug 3 04:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apollo Group Is a Great Buy [View article]
    Thanks for your comment.

    The "heat" the company is receiving because of congressional hearings has largely been misplaced. In the rules release a couple weeks ago (www.finaid.org/educato...) First of all, it won't impact any programs until 2-3 years out. Furthermore, the department estimates that only about 5% of programs would lose access to aid if the rules they are contemplating were implemented today. Three years from now, smart companies will have time to adjust to these rules and the impact will be even lower. I interpreted this release in a positive light, and think it could provide a catalyst for an uptick in the stock price given the way the movers and shakers are currently leaning. Despite APOL's reliance on the government, their ventures overseas (where students kill for American degrees but oftentimes cannot afford them), gives them a leg up on their competition.

    I agree that there is a risk element in there, I just believe it is being overblown. Thanks again for your comment.
    Aug 3 04:35 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deja vu: Today's market plunge fits into the troubling recent pattern of lower highs with each run-up and lower lows with each dropoff.  [View news story]
    I'm anxious for Europe to disclose which banks have passed/failed their stress tests next Friday, as well. Combined with the aforementioned housing data releases, it should make for a full week...
    Jul 17 02:08 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Risk Rally Stalls, More Downside Likely [View article]
    Seems like those stress tests are a lose-lose for the EU... too many failures and the euro suffers, too few and the tests are perceived as inadequate. Is there a perfect number they could hit that the market would approve of? Right now I'm not sure there is.

    Look for the EU to come under pressure July 23rd.
    Jul 16 10:06 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 2,300-page financial reform bill promises to generate historic levels of red tape - 533 new sets of rules, 60 studies, 94 reports, the Chamber of Commerce calculates. "Trying to write and implement these new regulations and the litigation that follows will take years to do... Not the way to get rid of uncertainty or grow jobs, unless you are a bureaucrat or a lawyer, in which case, this is the bill for you."  [View news story]
    This reform act is the government trying to fix a sinking ship by making it bigger, instead of plugging the holes. Let's give regulatory authority to the same government that somehow makes taxes more complex than neuro-surgery.

    Check out my take on the reform here:
    seekingalpha.com/insta...
    Jul 16 10:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't believe all the hype - we needed those bailouts! Becky Quick says we've already forgotten about the fall 2008 fear and why the government had to step in, and "the armchair-quarterback lawmakers and candidates who are now second-guessing these moves are dangerous."  [View news story]
    Not a bad idea... but divesting these giants into two pieces couldn't happen overnight. Their books were so muddled people could hardly decide whether they were bankrupt or not. I still vote that "too big to fail" firms should be forced to abide by a new "too big to exist" precedent.

    But why make tough decisions when you have all these taxpayers to prop you up?
    Jul 16 10:00 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Limits of Indexing: The Case of Emerging Market ETFs [View article]
    Nice article. I think this does a good job of explaining some of the limits of indexing. Also, it is important to note that not all ETFs are the same and that the varying returns mirrors management philosophies.

    I would be willing to submit that if you're investing heavily in emerging markets, you should probably be a savvy enough investor to engage in a swap transaction anyways.
    Jul 16 09:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market recap: Stocks started slowly and slid steadily through the day, battered by weak revenues from BofA (BAC -9.1%) and Citigroup (C -6%) and a big drop in consumer confidence. The plunge in financials was steep but the drop was broad-based, with declining issues leading advancers by at least seven to one. Treasurys finished the week on a high note, with the 10-year yield slipping below 3%, and crude oil fell to $76.  [View news story]
    The breadth of this down turn indicates a more wide spread panic than just Google's earnings or financials.
    Jul 16 04:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ATP: Sorry, JPM Analyst Made a $9 Valuation Error on Your $10 Stock [View article]
    Second pair of eyes? How about a first pair of eyes.

    This analysis had to be done in someone's sleep... unless there's something more sinister going on here. Hard to tell, and more difficult to prove.

    Thank goodness they passed financial reform! That will fix all this, right guys? ...right?
    Jul 16 04:35 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Buffett Is Wrong [View article]
    Adam, sorry to hear I've authored the "dumbest thing [you have] ever heard." Maybe you should read more.

    The conflict of interest is that the ratings agencies are paid by the very entities they rate. Your first sentence neglects that key factor. Furthermore, you're speaking about an imaginary world where free markets exist and governments do not interfere. I wrote this particular article about the world we actually live in (Earth), where moral hazards do exist because of the focus on short term profits, quarterly earnings and executive bonuses.

    Did the government contribute to the problem by requiring NRSRO accreditation for CRAs? Absolutely. I never said that these conflicts of interest were the only problem, I only said that they existed.
    Jun 10 05:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
114 Comments
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