Confidence Remains Low - Which Is Good for Investors [View article]
This is like saying low earnings is a good thing, because it means the company can make more money in the future. I don't buy into this frame of thought, CBP.
It might be a contrarian's market, but it also reeks of being pushed more by macro events than fundamentals, which makes it hard to pick your spots. I don't think the consumer info was a good sign at all.
Jamie Dimon said during JPMorgan Chase's (JPM -2.4) earnings call yesterday that a U.S. government default on its debt "would be catastrophic." What is the bank doing to prepare for such an outcome? "We are praying," Dimon said, then, after a pause, "And we are planning." At least three brokerages are believers, raising their price targets on the stock. [View news story]
Planning for the US defaulting on it's debt is like planning for Revelations. What are you going to do? There is no hedge for that.
Chinese 'Manipulate' Their Currency to Our Advantage [View article]
I think you ignore the main issue here. The problem isn't that China is selling us cheap goods and we are complaining, the problem is that the game is fixed against an American worker that is finding it increasingly difficult to find a job. This reflects in growth, which manifests in consumer sentiment and helps stifle any recovery here at home. Whenever a country imposes trade restrictions (and the peg IS a form of subsidy, have no doubt) then there is a loss to the world as a whole.
The only people that the peg is benefiting are those that live and work in China. Consumers benefit, but the "small manufacturing base" you talk about nonchalantly is actually pretty important to the rest of the economy as a whole. I really think this article is suffering from tunnel vision.
So, a bigger screen is the innovation? That's the next big thing? We've had bigger screens for years.
Have you used the new Samsung phone? Does the Samsung IV 5" screen fit in your pocket? Last time I checked, I had a tablet for a larger screen. The hybrid tab-phone-screen-tab, does not have a market. I have a 10inch screen for my entertainment, and a ~4 inch screen for my business/very mobile (not at home) needs. That might just be me, but I bet that the vast majority of people don't need that extra fifth inch.
If you think that Samsung's screen is all that it has to offer.. then I think you're making my point stronger...
John, I totally agree. Prices will also languish as volume decreases. The reason I didn't put a reference to this in my article, is because I do not have strong convictions on how MUCH prices will decrease. It is also a more regional metric, and therefore I felt it was best to leave out a specific number. However, it is just as important to the overall housing picture.
The fact that you are saying the iOS (not iPhone 5, iOS was around way before the Galaxy series) copied the Samsung Galaxy S III is really funny. Sure, the GSIII might be better on some accounts (battery, release date), but the iPhone 5 is better on others (size, weight, stability). Also, users love both... so why can't they coexist? Remember the margin Apple makes on their phones is different than Samsung...
GS IV is TBD. The screen size sounds huge for something I'm going to put in my pocket.
If you think Apple copied Samsung... read the news. There are plenty of reasons to prefer Samsung over Apple, but that isn't one of them.
European shares are in full melt-up mode, the Stoxx 50 (FEZ) at its high of the day, +4.2%. Italy (EWI) is the biggest gainer, +5.2%. The short-selling ban looks to have won the day, for the moment. European indices are about 10% higher since the idea was floated about 24 hours ago. [View news story]
The idea that shorts ruin the market is an ignorant one... they serve their purpose in capitalism. This is an idiotic move by frantic, weak governments.
How Far Will Geithner Get With China on the Renminbi? [View article]
Exactly, and he has too much of a personal agenda. The Chinese don't care about American problems, but they would respond to a plan that would benefit them in the long run. I think an older, more responsible/conservative individual not directly associated with the current administration would be a much better ambassador.
Geithner sounds like an angry step child that wants a bigger allowance.
Cramer's Stop Trading! The Fed Said Good Things. Buy (8/10/10) [View article]
Cramer is Bernanke's handmaiden. How could he have drawn this conclusion from the FOMC announcement? If anything, the announcement was a reaffirmation that the Fed really has run out of ideas... if they even had any good ones to begin with. Sell.
Don't believe all the hype - we needed those bailouts! Becky Quick says we've already forgotten about the fall 2008 fear and why the government had to step in, and "the armchair-quarterback lawmakers and candidates who are now second-guessing these moves are dangerous." [View news story]
Not a bad idea... but divesting these giants into two pieces couldn't happen overnight. Their books were so muddled people could hardly decide whether they were bankrupt or not. I still vote that "too big to fail" firms should be forced to abide by a new "too big to exist" precedent.
But why make tough decisions when you have all these taxpayers to prop you up?
The only phones that don't get "horsewhipped" (well put) for not being revolutionary are... Apple phones!! I'm not an Apple fanboy by any means... but isn't that strange?
I've owned several copy cats... and they were good attempts, but they had nothing that the original lacked. The Motorola Razr was thin... but lacked battery life. My Android phones were great, but often came with bloat ware (from bickering between Google and hardware manufacturers) or suffered from short life due to 4G data that their batteries couldn't keep up with (this has changed recently).
You don't hear about these struggles as much as you hear about how far Apple has to fall. Thanks for reading.
Will Verizon Demolish AT&T? It Did So Long Ago [View article]
Wouldn't high beta be a stock that outperformed the overall market in good times and greatly underperformed in bad? I'm pretty sure stocks that have underperformed markets over 6m and 1y can't claim a "high beta" or "high alpha" moniker.
Also, don't you see this outperformance as tied to the fact that everyone expected Verizon to get the iPhone eventually? I think the benefits of the iPhone for Verizon are largely baked into the price already.
European Austerity Still Isn't Working [View article]
Without any measures to increase consumption in the Eurozone, their fiscal "discipline" will all be for naught. Germany might be a powerhouse, but their trade surplus puts pressure on other nations that certainly can't handle it right now. I see a rocky road... which begs the question: why did everyone go bullish on Europe a couple weeks ago when all signs pointed to trouble (bit.ly/ab7EUC)?
1929 = 2010? Maybe Not, But Respect the Trend [View article]
I think there are a few differences between now and then. One I will discuss is the nature of the pre-1929 market.
From 1924-29, the DOW almost quadrupled in value. This would basically be the same as the book DOW 36,000 becoming a reality in half a decade. The sort of violent correction that was seen afterwards seems much less violent if you include two or three more years in your video.
With such uncertainty, I would expect the DOW to "shiver" around a certain point as opposed to seeing the peaks and valleys that were in play post 1929. Also, going back even further, from 1901-09 there were dips and peaks that doubled and then halved, then doubled, then halved the value of the DOW. So volatility was inherent in those markets.
I disagree with you that human behavior never changes. I believe it can change and evolve as the way markets work change. Great piece though, it will be interesting to see the path the DJIA takes from here on out.
Confidence Remains Low - Which Is Good for Investors [View article]
It might be a contrarian's market, but it also reeks of being pushed more by macro events than fundamentals, which makes it hard to pick your spots. I don't think the consumer info was a good sign at all.
Jamie Dimon said during JPMorgan Chase's (JPM -2.4) earnings call yesterday that a U.S. government default on its debt "would be catastrophic." What is the bank doing to prepare for such an outcome? "We are praying," Dimon said, then, after a pause, "And we are planning." At least three brokerages are believers, raising their price targets on the stock. [View news story]
Chinese 'Manipulate' Their Currency to Our Advantage [View article]
The only people that the peg is benefiting are those that live and work in China. Consumers benefit, but the "small manufacturing base" you talk about nonchalantly is actually pretty important to the rest of the economy as a whole. I really think this article is suffering from tunnel vision.
Subtle Innovation: Apple's Incremental Improvement Strategy [View article]
Have you used the new Samsung phone? Does the Samsung IV 5" screen fit in your pocket? Last time I checked, I had a tablet for a larger screen. The hybrid tab-phone-screen-tab, does not have a market. I have a 10inch screen for my entertainment, and a ~4 inch screen for my business/very mobile (not at home) needs. That might just be me, but I bet that the vast majority of people don't need that extra fifth inch.
If you think that Samsung's screen is all that it has to offer.. then I think you're making my point stronger...
Thanks for reading!
How Low Can Housing Go? [View article]
Thanks for reading and commenting!
Subtle Innovation: Apple's Incremental Improvement Strategy [View article]
GS IV is TBD. The screen size sounds huge for something I'm going to put in my pocket.
If you think Apple copied Samsung... read the news. There are plenty of reasons to prefer Samsung over Apple, but that isn't one of them.
Thanks for reading!
European shares are in full melt-up mode, the Stoxx 50 (FEZ) at its high of the day, +4.2%. Italy (EWI) is the biggest gainer, +5.2%. The short-selling ban looks to have won the day, for the moment. European indices are about 10% higher since the idea was floated about 24 hours ago. [View news story]
How Far Will Geithner Get With China on the Renminbi? [View article]
Geithner sounds like an angry step child that wants a bigger allowance.
Cramer's Stop Trading! The Fed Said Good Things. Buy (8/10/10) [View article]
Don't believe all the hype - we needed those bailouts! Becky Quick says we've already forgotten about the fall 2008 fear and why the government had to step in, and "the armchair-quarterback lawmakers and candidates who are now second-guessing these moves are dangerous." [View news story]
But why make tough decisions when you have all these taxpayers to prop you up?
ATP: Sorry, JPM Analyst Made a $9 Valuation Error on Your $10 Stock [View article]
This analysis had to be done in someone's sleep... unless there's something more sinister going on here. Hard to tell, and more difficult to prove.
Thank goodness they passed financial reform! That will fix all this, right guys? ...right?
Subtle Innovation: Apple's Incremental Improvement Strategy [View article]
I've owned several copy cats... and they were good attempts, but they had nothing that the original lacked. The Motorola Razr was thin... but lacked battery life. My Android phones were great, but often came with bloat ware (from bickering between Google and hardware manufacturers) or suffered from short life due to 4G data that their batteries couldn't keep up with (this has changed recently).
You don't hear about these struggles as much as you hear about how far Apple has to fall. Thanks for reading.
Will Verizon Demolish AT&T? It Did So Long Ago [View article]
Also, don't you see this outperformance as tied to the fact that everyone expected Verizon to get the iPhone eventually? I think the benefits of the iPhone for Verizon are largely baked into the price already.
European Austerity Still Isn't Working [View article]
1929 = 2010? Maybe Not, But Respect the Trend [View article]
From 1924-29, the DOW almost quadrupled in value. This would basically be the same as the book DOW 36,000 becoming a reality in half a decade. The sort of violent correction that was seen afterwards seems much less violent if you include two or three more years in your video.
With such uncertainty, I would expect the DOW to "shiver" around a certain point as opposed to seeing the peaks and valleys that were in play post 1929. Also, going back even further, from 1901-09 there were dips and peaks that doubled and then halved, then doubled, then halved the value of the DOW. So volatility was inherent in those markets.
I disagree with you that human behavior never changes. I believe it can change and evolve as the way markets work change. Great piece though, it will be interesting to see the path the DJIA takes from here on out.