Solar Update: More Downside Risk Before Buying Opportunity Emerges [View article]
Atrios - funny. Though I still think first tier Chinese solar will be a buy again at some point this year. I'm just very patient. And obviously for good reason.
Solarbuzz Reports Record Year For Solar, But Oversupply Remains [View article]
gebby - agreed, the EPIA numbers are very reliable. However, they confirm the general accuracy of the solarbuzz numbers in broad terms - 28 GWs from one survey versus 27.4 GW from the other. They both confirm the same broad trajectory for the industry globally.
Most importantly, the solarbuzz numbers are worthwhile as they are the earliest view we get on a quarterly basis.
It's clearly worth viewing the numbers from a range of sources - GTM obviously for example in the US.
Solarbuzz Reports Record Year For Solar, But Oversupply Remains [View article]
Steven - my analysis for the moment is heavily driven by the overall problem of over supply in the industry. As a result, a problem for one company is generally a problem for them all in the current environment. That remains the case with regard to margin pressure across the board.
LDK's problem has been amplified by the fact that the company is heavily reliant on downstream product - particularly in their wafer business. That's where the margin pressure has been the worst.
However, as a result they have been moving towards a greater degree of vertical integration - which will position them nicely when the recovery eventually comes.
For a much more detailed and very good read on LDK you should check Investing Hobo's recent article -
Solarbuzz Reports Record Year For Solar, But Oversupply Remains [View article]
gebby - the survey based data from Solarbuzz on global supply and demand is still perfectly reliable. And it generally represents the earliest insight we have into installations in the latest quarter.
From the point of view of my article, that's all that matters.
Solar Update: More Downside Risk Before Buying Opportunity Emerges [View article]
For anyone interested, Solarbuzz just released their data for global PV installations in 2011 at a blistering 27.4 GW. For fuller discussion and geographical breakdown see -
Solar Update: More Downside Risk Before Buying Opportunity Emerges [View article]
User 427801 - you're definitely right. Further significant upside in the price of oil and/or a supply disruption will no doubt get solar stocks moving to the upside - even though oil plays little role in electricity generation either in the States or globally. Anyway, I don't disagree with you on that.
I'm simply taking the admittedly short-term trading view that oversupply and margin pressures will continue to hurt earnings and that we probably need to see another flush down in solar stocks in order to price that in.
Solar Update: More Downside Risk Before Buying Opportunity Emerges [View article]
stock_pimp - Good question. I don't really have any special insight into potential take overs. However, you would think that at current low valuations a number of players have become interesting targets. Also, if I remember correctly, in their last conference call, Suntech Power seemed to suggest that they might be open to acquiring a smaller player if the opportunity was to arise.
If we were to see a bout of M&A activity that would no doubt be a very bullish sign. It's exactly what we need to push the rationalization process in the industry ahead.
It's also the reason I don't want to stay out of solar stocks for too long. I just think there's a reasonable chance that we'll see one more flush down before it's a buy.
Germany Solar Feed-In-Tariff Cuts Underline Reasons To Stay Uninvested In Sector For Now [View article]
gebby - we always completely agree on the long-term. As you know in these volatile markets I just like to trade more nimbly. And recently that's worked out pretty well.
Still, I agree with your long-term view. Good luck.
Germany Solar Feed-In-Tariff Cuts Underline Reasons To Stay Uninvested In Sector For Now [View article]
Pillenye - I'm not short. And I recommended getting long at the end of last Nov. As I said above, by the time I recommended taking profits those stocks were up 54% to 82%.
Again, another flush down and there'll be another good buy opportunity.
Germany Solar Feed-In-Tariff Cuts Underline Reasons To Stay Uninvested In Sector For Now [View article]
Pillenye - see my answer to tunaman above. I agree with your long-term view - but I'd rather be nimble in these volatile markets. That's worked well so far.
Another flush down and I'll be looking for the spot to buy again.
Germany Solar Feed-In-Tariff Cuts Underline Reasons To Stay Uninvested In Sector For Now [View article]
tumaman4u2 - I don't disagree with your long-term views. Solar has a great future.
However, I think all the bad news was pretty much baked in the cake late last November when these stocks were on their lows. At that time I recommended buying. In the early part of Feb I simply recommended taking profits since the stocks I had recommended buying were all up 55% to 82%.
Since then those solar stocks have all come off again and I think there's some more downside.
Another flush down and I'll be recommending buying once again. In these volatile markets I just think it pays to be nimble.
Solar Update: More Downside Risk Before Buying Opportunity Emerges [View article]
Tesla Stock Collapses But Looks Massively Oversold [View article]
Solarbuzz Reports Record Year For Solar, But Oversupply Remains [View article]
Most importantly, the solarbuzz numbers are worthwhile as they are the earliest view we get on a quarterly basis.
It's clearly worth viewing the numbers from a range of sources - GTM obviously for example in the US.
Tesla Stock Collapses But Looks Massively Oversold [View article]
Solarbuzz Reports Record Year For Solar, But Oversupply Remains [View article]
LDK's problem has been amplified by the fact that the company is heavily reliant on downstream product - particularly in their wafer business. That's where the margin pressure has been the worst.
However, as a result they have been moving towards a greater degree of vertical integration - which will position them nicely when the recovery eventually comes.
For a much more detailed and very good read on LDK you should check Investing Hobo's recent article -
http://seekingalpha.co...
It's a very good read.
Good luck.
Solarbuzz Reports Record Year For Solar, But Oversupply Remains [View article]
From the point of view of my article, that's all that matters.
Solar Update: More Downside Risk Before Buying Opportunity Emerges [View article]
http://bit.ly/GAe07E
Solar Update: More Downside Risk Before Buying Opportunity Emerges [View article]
I'm simply taking the admittedly short-term trading view that oversupply and margin pressures will continue to hurt earnings and that we probably need to see another flush down in solar stocks in order to price that in.
Then I'll be a buyer again.
Solar Update: More Downside Risk Before Buying Opportunity Emerges [View article]
If we were to see a bout of M&A activity that would no doubt be a very bullish sign. It's exactly what we need to push the rationalization process in the industry ahead.
It's also the reason I don't want to stay out of solar stocks for too long. I just think there's a reasonable chance that we'll see one more flush down before it's a buy.
First Solar: Mixed Earnings Confirm Attraction of Taking Profits [View article]
Germany Solar Feed-In-Tariff Cuts Underline Reasons To Stay Uninvested In Sector For Now [View article]
Still, I agree with your long-term view. Good luck.
Germany Solar Feed-In-Tariff Cuts Underline Reasons To Stay Uninvested In Sector For Now [View article]
Again, another flush down and there'll be another good buy opportunity.
Germany Solar Feed-In-Tariff Cuts Underline Reasons To Stay Uninvested In Sector For Now [View article]
Another flush down and I'll be looking for the spot to buy again.
Germany Solar Feed-In-Tariff Cuts Underline Reasons To Stay Uninvested In Sector For Now [View article]
However, I think all the bad news was pretty much baked in the cake late last November when these stocks were on their lows. At that time I recommended buying. In the early part of Feb I simply recommended taking profits since the stocks I had recommended buying were all up 55% to 82%.
Since then those solar stocks have all come off again and I think there's some more downside.
Another flush down and I'll be recommending buying once again. In these volatile markets I just think it pays to be nimble.
Another EV Survey Cites Range Anxiety - Tesla Still Looks Like A Buy [View article]