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  • Tier One Chinese Solar To Continue To Outperform [View article]
    Gebby - good point. Even stalwart free market thinkers like Hayek always saw room for government action in the initial stages of development of a new industry - particularly where there were significant barriers to entry.

    And the point is that as costs continue to fall and solar reaches grid parity across the country, the industry will mature and subsidies will no longer be necessary.
    Jan 13 04:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tier One Chinese Solar To Continue To Outperform [View article]
    McGonicle - thanks for your comment. Actually, I was recommending being out of the solar sector until Nov of last year and then became bullish as a result of the move amongst Chinese players to reign in their capacity expansion plans. See -

    http://bit.ly/yfD03X

    From Nov 28th I have been recommending a basket of STP, YGE and TSL. See -

    http://bit.ly/rIXhLA

    That has worked pretty well.

    I honestly don't think that this is just about market manipulation on the part of some large players, if that is what you are suggesting.
    Jan 12 12:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tier One Chinese Solar To Continue To Outperform [View article]
    cheers hockeyhead. And good luck yourself.
    Jan 12 12:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tier One Chinese Solar To Continue To Outperform [View article]
    REETrader - agreed. Rather than doing a full total return analysis I was really just looking at the momentum behind the stocks. However, in total return terms obviously that part of the dividend accruing to the period concerned should be included.

    I don't think it alters the overall argument though.
    Jan 12 12:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tier One Chinese Solar To Continue To Outperform [View article]
    Tony - this is not really about a one day move.

    Even after today's pullback, at time of writing and from the closing prices before my recommendation (on Nov 28th last year) STP is up 29.69%, YGE is up 18.11% and TSL is up 34.6%.

    From a bigger picture perspective, research suggests that in some areas solar has already reached grid parity. See -

    http://bit.ly/x7PK4S

    As severe competition continues to push prices lower amidst industry consolidation, that will increasingly be the case. Prime time is already here.
    Jan 12 12:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tier One Chinese Solar To Continue To Outperform [View article]
    El Juez - I take your point regarding yesterday's move
    - please see my longer reply to Gebby below.

    My article was written before yesterday's move and was more about the rally being seen in the basket trade I had recommended from Nov 28th.

    I don't have anything against your trades. I made my call when solar stocks were still suffering and thought that the tier one players were the safest bet.

    That's worked out well and I think that the trade will continue to work.

    Even after today's pullback, at time of writing and from the closing prices before my recommendation STP is up 29.69%, YGE is up 18.11% and TSL is up 34.6%.
    Jan 12 12:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tier One Chinese Solar To Continue To Outperform [View article]
    Gebby, I take your point about yesterday's move. However, I actually wrote the article in the European morning before yesterday's rally and updated and published it on my own site (http://bit.ly/A6FbVQ) as the rally was under way. Seeking Alpha published it later, as the rally had gone even further.

    Consequently, my point was not actually about the trade on the day - although the move became so extensive that it obviously is the focus of everyone's attention.

    Taking a step back from yesterday's events my point has been that we saw a significant change from the industry in China during the course of last November as a number of players publicly called a halt to their capacity expansion plans. See -

    http://bit.ly/yfD03X

    and

    http://bit.ly/rIXhLA

    My call was that this change being seen out of China would, alongside growing demand, mark something of a bottom in the ralted stocks.

    That has indeed been the case.

    Finally, I think its safest to stick with a basket of the tier one players as the consolidation in the industry continues. And even before yesterday's rally, as you can see from the chart above, these players had bottomed and were all up by about 10-12% from the date I recommended them. They're all obviously up a lot more now.

    However, I'm not recommending being short any others. My trade has been long STP, YGE and TSL - and its obviously performing well.

    And I think that it will continue to do so.
    Jan 12 12:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Model S Launch Plans Bode Well For Stock [View article]
    gebby - as you know, I don't disagree with you on solar. For example see -

    http://bit.ly/t04N0u

    However, I think that Tesla will re-test the highs - helped by a coming announcement on the Model X and further pre-orders as the launch of the Model S approaches.
    Dec 22 12:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Model S Launch Plans Bode Well For Stock [View article]
    bob - each $10k increment adds 70 miles to the range. Against battery pricing generally that doesn't seem expensive.

    I don't have any issues with the Fisker Karma. Though I think that the Tesla Model S will end up outselling the Karma. But I guess we'll see.
    Dec 22 12:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A123 Systems: How Supportive Is The Deal On GM's Spark EV? [View article]
    wind4me - That would be very bullish for AONE if they did - but somehow I doubt it. Cheers.
    Dec 21 09:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buffett-First Solar Deal Extremely Bullish For Solar Sector [View article]
    Pablo - there are good arguments for many solar costs. I´m simply sticking with a basket of the key players.
    Dec 11 08:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buffett-First Solar Deal Extremely Bullish For Solar Sector [View article]
    I tend to agree. There´s still going to be a shake out. That´s why I would stick with the leading, vertically integrated low cost producers.
    Dec 11 08:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buffett-First Solar Deal Extremely Bullish For Solar Sector [View article]
    Ellsworth - the point is that the US utility scale sector has a 24 GW pipeline in place at the moment. There has been some concern about the availability of financing in the post-Solydra / post DoE Loan guarantee program environment.

    And now we are seeing the private sector stepping in to fill the gap - both with the SolarCity-BoA deal and this deal between Buffett and First Solar.

    Both of those deals previously failed to make the deadline for the DoE´s loan guarantee program.
    Dec 8 03:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SolarCity Shows Private Sector Can Address DoE Funding Gap [View article]
    gebby - agreed. cheers.
    Dec 8 11:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Blistering Rate Of Growth For U.S. Solar Industry [View article]
    rick_e - thanks for your comments. In reply -

    1. I do not advocate 100% renewables, given the current state of innovation. We would need a breakthrough one of the technologies capable of providing base load on a 24/7 basis at a reasonable cost - which we currently don´t have, given that energy storage is too expensive for now.

    2. The subsidy issue is a quagmire. However, many studies provide results which contradict your view. Coal is particularly heavily subsidized. Moreover, fossil fuels have significant negative externalities which cannot be priced in. One answer is to tax them so that the price reflects the negative externality. Another is to subsidize alternatives - so that the relative prices between the two reflect the existence of the negative externalities.

    3. China - you make some good points. And solar is a particularly quick fix. I think China knows its growth trajectory means that it needs alternatives to offset what is becoming a ballooning imported energy bill. Energy security is crucial for them. That is why they are scouring the globe to lock in long-term supply agreements. It is also why they are investing in renewables. The one thing the Chinese see very clearly is the negative externality associated with a lack of energy security. That is also why as an investor you can rely on Chinese demand for renewables.
    Dec 8 11:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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