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  • Decent Payroll Clears Way For Christmas Rally On Better European News [View article]
    wmarkw - thanks. Much appreciated.
    Dec 6 02:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Blistering Rate Of Growth For U.S. Solar Industry [View article]
    mantiss - couldn´t agree more.
    Dec 6 02:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Blistering Rate Of Growth For U.S. Solar Industry [View article]
    deja vu - as you point out, solar and wind cannot be used for base load as the sun doesn´t always shine and the wind doesn´t always blow. However, nobody is suggesting that we use 100% solar or 100% wind. A combination of renewables on top of natural gas for base load would be a good start in the US. California aims at 30% renewables and the utilities there are on board with the fact that such a target can be made to work alongside other forms of power generation. And they have a decent pipeline of for example solar projects to achieve just that.

    On subsidies, we all know that fossil fuels are subsidized, with no economic justification. The subsidies with regard to renewables are justified by the fact that there are externalities associated with fossil fuels which cannot be priced in by the market. Some rebalancing is therefore justified.

    However, that is not the point of my article. Whether you think the regulatory framework in places like California is justified or not, the fact is that the push towards renewables is real and a solid source of demand.

    Finally, on Asia - see my previous article -

    http://bit.ly/rIXhLA

    The real source of demand is China, not India. And they are committed to a major roll-out of solar. Again, whether you think they are right or wrong, the fact is that this is real demand which will help erode the current supply-demand imbalance in the solar sector.

    And that will bring a relief rally to what is a heavily oversold sector.
    Dec 6 02:26 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Decent Payroll Clears Way For Christmas Rally On Better European News [View article]
    Digdeep - I guess we´ll just have to agree to disagree. Most of your points relate to the Household survey. On this, I agree - actual unemployment is higher than reported and the latest fall is only about an erratic move in the very volatile participation rate.

    The Establishment survey, however, is more solid. Simply look at a chart - after weakening in the summer the trend is no longer getting worse. I´ll leave it at that.
    Dec 5 10:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SolarCity Shows Private Sector Can Address DoE Funding Gap [View article]
    gordon125 - as far as I know, BoA did not require a guarantor - or at least none was disclosed. Do you have any other info on this - or is your comment an educated guess?
    Dec 5 05:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SolarCity Shows Private Sector Can Address DoE Funding Gap [View article]
    Thanks Fuma. Much appreciated.
    Dec 5 05:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SolarCity Shows Private Sector Can Address DoE Funding Gap [View article]
    gebby - the only point that is important is that I have fully disclosed I am not long.

    Other than that I´m fully loaded with other trades.

    I´ve been out of solar, for reasons I´ve discussed in previous articles. I´m bullish now but just don´t have room in my portfolio for new risk.

    As I take profits on other trades I´ll add some solar. That´s about it.
    Dec 5 05:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Decent Payroll Clears Way For Christmas Rally On Better European News [View article]
    Sanitylost / IncomeYield - you´re both right about the unemployment rate - participation rate issue.

    Just to confirm what I´m saying regarding focusing instead on the employment series itself, let me state the obvious for anyone who isn´t aware of the detail.

    1. These numbers come from two very different and unconnected surveys - the Establishment Survey, which surveys businesses - and the Household Survey, which is a survey of individuals in individual households.

    2. The Establishment Survey the much more reliable of the two and its results are less volatile. It is based on survey results from the Personnel Departments of the businesses surveyed. This produces the headline employment series - which is generally a good coincident indicator of the economic cycle.

    3. The Household Survey has all the problems associated with surveys of individuals and tends to be much more volatile - particularly in terms of the participation rate - because people´s replies to the question of whether or not they are 'currently looking for work' tends to be very subjective. This means that the unemployment rate series and the related participation rate are less reliable. But this does not affect the monthly employment numbers - which are based on an entirely different survey.

    Please see my reply to Digdeep below for some more detail on what I think this means for the economy and markets right now.
    Dec 5 03:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Decent Payroll Clears Way For Christmas Rally On Better European News [View article]
    silverfox - I guess that´s the scenario to hope for. If we do avoid a decline into a new recession - as the employment numbers suggest - then maybe the economy can slowly claw its way back and start generating better monthly employment numbers by the middle of next year.

    The major positive is the corporate sector - they used the recession to cut costs and have decent cash levels.

    The major negative is the election cycle and the current political impasse.
    Dec 5 03:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Decent Payroll Clears Way For Christmas Rally On Better European News [View article]
    Tonyp4 - I understood the satire first time around. Funny. Though not sure the Russians would take Mrs Palin......
    Dec 5 02:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Decent Payroll Clears Way For Christmas Rally On Better European News [View article]
    king999 - couldn´t agree more.
    Dec 5 02:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Decent Payroll Clears Way For Christmas Rally On Better European News [View article]
    Tonyp4, Digdeep amd wmarkw - I couldn´t agree with you more. Obviously this is the critical economic issue that the developed West faces - and wmarkw´s example gets right to the point - ie what we face in China is not just a cheap labor machine - it´s highly educated cheap labor (no doubt these new hires he mentions are good, qualified accountants).

    It´s the hallmark of the regime in China since Deng Xioping that they have poured money into education to boost productivity and then not allowed the educated labor they are creating to fully participate in the net income flow generated.

    Until they allow their workforce to participate more fully in the profits generated this situation will obviously continue.
    Dec 5 02:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Decent Payroll Clears Way For Christmas Rally On Better European News [View article]
    DigDeep - as I mentioned in my reply to SanityLost above, I think the headline employment series, based on the Establishment Survey, is the better indicator. These are returns from real businesses (though obviously they don´t take into account the non-official economy as Sandiegononsurfer points out).

    The Household Survey, from which we get the unemployment rate and the participation rate, are much less reliable, particularly because the participation rate moves around a lot. Remember, this is a survey of individual people in individual households, being asked if they are working or looking for work. So to state the obvious, a lot depends on how people choose to respond - and its pretty subjective - if they say that they are neither working nor looking for work they are obviously deemed to be no longer participating in the labor force - hence the participation rate falls. Obviously a series based on a survey like that is going to jump around a bit.

    Alternatively, the responses to the Establishment Survey are less subjective returns from the Personnel Departments of the firms surveyed. Generally, they provide a pretty good read on the trend in employment - and certainly better than the Household Survey.

    And the bottom line is that the monthly employment numbers are disappointingly sub-par for this stage in the cycle. However, they have stopped weakening and suggest that the economy will avoid another bout of recession.

    I think that´s enough for a relief rally - as long as we do in fact see the better developments out of Europe that I´m expecting.
    Dec 5 02:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Decent Payroll Clears Way For Christmas Rally On Better European News [View article]
    Not yet. But the precipice is close - and consequently this is precisely the time to expect action to be taken soon. I wouldn´t bet against it.
    Dec 2 02:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Decent Payroll Clears Way For Christmas Rally On Better European News [View article]
    sanitylost - agreed. That´s why I didn´t mention it in any detail. The better series relates to the employment numbers themselves. That gives a better read on where the economy is going. And those numbers were revised up by 72k in the prior two months.

    Overall, the evidence is that the economy is weak but not going into an outright recession.
    Dec 2 10:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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