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  • Natural Gas Act Vote Postponed But Not Dead Yet
    For anyone following the progress of the Natural Gas Act in the Senate, the latest is that in the last 24 hours the Senate Democrats decided to cancel the vote, which had originally been scheduled for today.

    The Act in question (more properly called S.3815: Promoting Natural Gas and Electric Vehicles Act of 2010) was of course introduced by Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid just before the recess and offers a range of incentives for the natural gas transportation sector, as well as some incentives for the electric car, with total costs estimated to amount to as much as $4.7bn. Of that around $3.8bn is to be directed towards rebates for the purchase of natural gas vehicles, whilst $500m would be provided as incentives for infrastructure and $400m for electric vehicle deployment.

    It is difficult to assess the prospects for the Act at present. However, Harry Reid's office has apparently stated that the reason for the cancellation was to allow more time for compromise to be reached with the Senate's Republicans. Consequently, the delay might not be a bad thing.

    Many Republicans of course, would welcome these measures on national security grounds. Moving the nation's trucks onto natural gas would of course be a solid step towards reducing the nation's reliance on foreign oil.

    However, the point at issue has been the Act's proposal for funding these incentives - an increase in the tax oil companies pay into the Oil Spill Liability Trust Fund from 8 cents to 21 cents per barrel.

    Perhaps Reid's people now feel that an alternative funding compromise can be found.

    The two stocks most likely to be affected by the vote are of course Clean Energy Fuels (NASDAQ:CLNE) and Westport Innovations (NASDAQ:WPRT). On the positive side, not much seems to have been priced into either stock in terms of a positive outcome. Whether or not the delay takes us into next year, both still seem worth holding for now.

    Disclosure: Long CLNE, Long WPRT
    Nov 17 5:00 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Rare Earth Metals - One Small but Striking Addition to the China Story
    Many other writers have covered the Rare Earth Metals story eloquently enough on this web site in the past few weeks. The story is clear - the future supply of these metals is critical not only to the Clean Tech industry but also to the US military. However, China is a 97% monopoly producer in the industry and has recently taken to imposing stringent quotas on exports - and allegedly halting exports to Japan as a way of exerting political pressure.

    All of this makes this week's Critical and Rare Metals Summit in Washington DC particularly interesting. Thus far, there has been one eye-popping takeaway from the pre-Summit Symposium. The CEO of a prominent Rare Earth mining company
    , gave a talk on some foreign rare earth metals deposits which they are looking at.  
    And the most interesting point was the following little nugget from his speech. If I understood him correctly, he stated that up until the Spring of this year there was still a stockpile of old rare earth oxides sitting on site in refining plant associated with one of the mines they were looking at. This plant was closed 20 years ago - at the same time and for the same reasons that operations everywhere outside of China were shutting down (nobody could compete with cheap product from China, as everyone now knows). The illuminating issue is that these stockpiles had sat there all these years until this Spring. And who bought them – the Chinese.
    That clearly should bring home the urgency of the situation from the West’s perspective. China is the 97% monopoly producer of rare earth oxides – and yet they still feel the need to scour the globe buying more.
    Given the supply issues involved here for both the Clean Tech industry and the US Army there clearly needs to be a coherent policy response to the clear lack of proper functioning in this market. In my own opinion, the vertical integration of the supply chain in the US is probably critical – from mine to magnets. From a policy perspective, the necessity of action couldn't be clearer.

    From an investment perspective, there are mixed issues at current valuations. It isn't exactly easy to find low hanging fruit. This is particularly true of the dedicated miners, many of whom are at an early stage of exploration. Personally, I have now taken profits on the majority of the rare earth miners in my portfolio and have consolidated the risk that I have left on Great Western Minerals. Great Western has the attraction of being a refiner with off take rights related to REO mining operations in South Africa. Moreover, they have in place an all-encompassing plan aimed at full vertical integration - exactly what any player in this industry needs to survive the potential difficulties that may result from the vicissitudes of a dominant monopoly producer.

    Disclosure: Long GWG
    Oct 25 9:05 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Could INTEL’s coming results be just enough to set the LED sector free to rally?
    For anyone looking at Sustainable Investing, the LED lighting sector should represent an area of key interest – and the heavy sell-off in the sector since the summer is now providing a very attractive risk-reward opportunity in this area of green technology. Of the key players in this sector, CREE is now down 34% from its highs earlier this year – with Rubicon down 41%. Despite this, the fundamentals facing both companies remain robust – and both now represent excellent risk-reward.
    It’s seems that the difficulty in the LED sector has largely been driven by guilt by association with the general malaise in the Semiconductor sector, laptops etc and excess supply in the LED TV backlighting market. The connection here was more than a little bit tangential, particularly for CREE with its focus on LED lighting rather than other LED products, but it has nevertheless been dominant in the market’s eye.
    The point, however, is not whether or not these concerns and the resultant re-pricing were justified, but rather whether or not the bad news has now largely been priced into the semi-conductor sector etc. Indeed, stocks such as Intel and broad semiconductor ETFs managed to bottom during September. The suggestion could be that without new, negative worries for semis and the PC market these concerns could be removed as a weight on the LED sector, allowing them to rally back on their own solid fundamentals. Indeed, if Intel’s guidance just manages to be in line tomorrow LED stocks may well start to find their own feet. In which case, the opportunity is before us now.
    The arguments for CREE and Rubicon are solidly based on the growth outlook for their markets.
    Energy efficient LED lighting is a solid opportunity for Sustainable Investing. CREE does produce LEDs for other uses – but lighting is its dominant and core market. The benefits for energy efficiency and CO2 emissions are clear – with savings averaging somewhere around at least 68% when replacing old incandescent light bulbs for LED lighting – and as high as 85% for the best CREE product.
    Moreover, consumer adoption looks ready to steadily increase –
    • The regulatory framework in the US means that incandescent bulbs will be banned in phases, starting with the 100w bulb in 2012 and ending with the last 40w bulb in 2014.
    • According to the National Assoc of Realtors there are 131m housing units in America. The average US home has 52 light sockets. The room for growth here as consumers adopt energy efficient lighting is self-evident. Meanwhile, the corporate market may actually develop ahead of the consumer.
    • Compact fluorescent (CFL) bulbs are an alternative but these contain toxic mercury and the newer LED bulbs are more efficient.
    • LED lighting represents an up-front investment, with savings accruing later. However, prices have been dropping. And for fully dimmable, recessed lighting LED is the clear winner.
    • There are other players in the LED lighting market. However, CREE is the clear quality leader. Moreover, they have significant property rights in this arena. GE has a new LED bulb coming – but it will be produced with CREE LEDs and technology. It is therefore merely another strong source of demand for CREE.
    Perhaps the most pivotal point in the growth of an industry or business is when a previously bespoke or niche product makes its way into the mainstream market. CREE has been the leader in LED lighting at least since 2003. Their sales have largely been to corporations looking to cut energy bills. Up until a year ago LED bulbs seldom cost less than $100 a pop.
    However, in years to come we will perhaps look back on the recent push Home Depot has made into this market as a pivotal moment which finally pushed LED lighting into the consumer sector in a meaningful way. With their EcoSmart brand, Home Depot now offers recessed 65 watt equivalent LED lights produced with CREE for $49.95. And they have an EcoSmart LED bulb produced with Lighting Science for $18. These products save up to 85% on energy bills and are now on the radar screen for consumers – and they will likely now grow in popularity.
    This will no doubt only be helped as States hopefully follow Vermont’s initiative in offering significant rebates via Utilities on the introduction of LED bulbs and fixtures via their Efficiency Vermont program.
    Rubicon is a leader in making the Sapphire Wafers that go into LED production. They have clearly suffered on worries over the LCD backlighting business etc. However, they will be a main beneficiary of the coming move to LED lighting. Moreover, in recent investor calls they have announced a strong order backlog, continued pricing increases for their products and the resultant addition of new capacity. No retrenchment here.
    Both Cree and Rubicon look as though they could make a sharp recovery in the near future. CREE looks like good risk-reward in the low $50s with a medium-term target of $85 – and a potential for $115 next year. Similarly Rubicon looks attractive anywhere below $20 with a $30-35 target.  

    Disclosure: Long CREE and RBCN
    Oct 11 8:27 PM | Link | Comment!
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