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Cliff Smith
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I am currently a retired Aerospace Engineer. I am married with three children and seven grandchildren. I was born in San Francisco, CA in 1949 and moved to Newport News, VA in 1951 where I lived until I went to college. By God's grace, I received a B.S. degree from Virginia Tech (1972), a M.S.... More
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  • Tactical Updates For August 18, 2014

    Please realize you use these recommendations at your own risk. I am not a registered financial advisor. If for any unforeseen reason I do not post the recommendations for the next period, please sell the ETFs and go to cash.

    Shown below are the August 18, 2014 ETF updates for the tactical strategies I have discussed in my Seeking Alpha articles. August 18th is the day to make your trades on these strategies. More information on the strategies can be found in the linked articles.

    The figures shown below are taken from ETFreplay calculations, and the entire 2014 selections and results are presented. I have been tracking most of these strategies in real time since the beginning of 2014. All of the strategies have been backtested, some as far back as 2000, but all have been backtested to 2008 (except RRBS3).

    Here are the strategies that are presented below:

    Equity Strategies:

    SSSEquity4 Strategy

    AllAssetsExceptBonds Strategy

    Bond Strategies:

    Bond-Only Strategy

    Low Volatility Bond Strategy, LVB

    Rising Rates Bond Strategy, RRBS3

    Simple Bond Strategy on HYLD/SHY

    Municipal Bond Strategy, MBS

    Combined Strategies:

    Schwab Commission-Free Strategy - 60% Equity/40% Bonds - 100% Bonds

    Unified Tactical Strategy, UTS - 60% Equity/40% Bonds - 100% Bonds

    Unified Bond Strategy, UBS - 100% Bonds

    Tactical Hedge Strategy, THS - 80% Equity/20% Long-Term Leveraged Treasury - 100% SHY

    Quarterly Tactical Strategy, QTS

    SSSEquity4 Strategy

    (click to enlarge)

    (click to (click to enlarge)

    AllAssetsExceptBonds Strategy

    (click to enlarge)

    (click to enlarge)

    Bond-Only Strategy

    (click to enlarge)

    (click to enlarge)

    Low Volatility Bond Strategy, LVB

    (click to enlarge)

    (click to enlarge)

    RisingRatesBondStrategy, RRBS3

    (click to enlarge)

    (click to enlarge)

    Simple Bond Strategy on HYLD/SHY

    Trade on Day of 3 Day & 25 Day Moving Average Ratio Crossover

    Please note: If you are interested in this strategy, I can send you an alert the day it occurs. Please send me a Seeking Alpha message asking to be included on the HYLD/SHY alert list. Please include your email address (no one can see it but me).

    Buy HYLD: Jan. 2, 2014; Sell HYLD: July 17, 2014 Return=5.36%

    Buy SHY: July 17, 2014; Sell SHY (open trade)

    (click to enlarge)

    Municipal Bond Strategy, MBS

    (click to enlarge)

    (click to enlarge)

    Schwab Commission-Free Strategy

    The picks this period include TLT that was used as a proxy for TLO. Rather than buying TLT, just purchase TLO instead.

    (click to enlarge)

    (click to enlarge)

    Unified Tactical Strategy

    This strategy combines SSSEquity4 (30%), AllAssetsExceptBonds (30%), and LVB (40%).

    (click to enlarge)

    (click to enlarge)

    Unified Bond Strategy

    This strategy combines Bond-Only Strategy (25%), LVB Strategy (25%), and RisingRatesBondStrategy, RRBS3 (50%).

    (click to enlarge)

    (click to enlarge)

    Quarterly Tactical Strategy

    This strategy updates quarterly. The current position is VWO (NYSEMKT:ETF) or VEIEX (Mutual Fund). EEM is an alternative to VWO if you like EEM better. I will include the yearly returns on my next Instablog post.

    These strategies have been backtested over a limited timeframe and shown to produce good growth with minimum risk, but future results may be dependent on factors not considered. Use these recommendations at your own risk.

    Aug 16 6:24 PM | Link | 3 Comments
  • ETF Recommendations For August 1, 2014

    Please realize you use these recommendations at your own risk. I am not a registered financial advisor. If for any unforeseen reason I do not post the recommendations for the next period, please sell the ETFs and go to cash.

    Shown below are the August 1, 2014 ETF updates for the tactical strategies I have discussed in my Seeking Alpha articles. August 1st is the day to make your trades on these strategies. More information on the strategies can be found in the linked articles.

    The figures shown below are taken from ETFreplay calculations, and the entire 2014 selections and results are presented. I have been tracking most of these strategies in real time since the beginning of 2014. All of the strategies have been backtested, some as far back as 2000, but all have been backtested to 2008 (except RRBS3).

    Here are the strategies that are presented below:

    Equity Strategies:

    SSSEquity4 Strategy

    AllAssetsExceptBonds Strategy

    Bond Strategies:

    Bond-Only Strategy

    Low Volatility Bond Strategy, LVB

    Rising Rates Bond Strategy, RRBS3

    Simple Bond Strategy on HYLD/SHY

    Municipal Bond Strategy, MBS

    Combined Strategies:

    Schwab Commission-Free Strategy -60% Equity/40% Bonds

    Unified Tactical Strategy, UTS - 60% Equity/40% Bonds

    Unified Bond Strategy, UBS - 100% Bonds

    SSSEquity4 Strategy

    (click to enlarge)

    (click to enlarge)

    AllAssetsExceptBonds Strategy

    (click to enlarge)

    (click to enlarge)

    Bond-Only Strategy

    (click to enlarge)

    (click to enlarge)

    Low Volatility Bond Strategy, LVB

    (click to enlarge)

    (click to enlarge)

    RisingRatesBondStrategy, RRBS3

    (click to enlarge)

    (click to enlarge)

    Simple Bond Strategy on HYLD/SHY

    Trade on Day of 3 Day & 25 Day Moving Average Ratio Crossover

    Please note: If you are interested in this strategy, I can send you an alert the day it occurs. Please send me a Seeking Alpha message asking to be included on the HYLD/SHY alert list. Please include your email address (no one can see it but me).

    Buy HYLD: Jan. 2, 2014; Sell HYLD: Jul. 17, 2014 Return=5.36%

    Buy SHY: Jul. 17, 2014; Sell SHY (open trade)

    (click to enlarge)

    Municipal Bond Strategy, MBS

    (click to enlarge)

    (click to enlarge)

    Schwab Commission-Free Strategy

    The picks this period include TLT that was used as a proxy for TLO. Rather than buying TLT, just purchase TLO (40% instead of 20%).

    (click to enlarge)

    (click to enlarge)

    Unified Tactical Strategy

    This strategy combines SSSEquity4 (30%), AllAssetsExceptBonds (30%), and LVB (40%).

    (click to enlarge)

    (click to enlarge)

    Unified Bond Strategy

    This strategy combines Bond-Only Strategy (25%), LVB Strategy (25%), and RisingRatesBondStrategy, RRBS3 (50%).

    (click to enlarge)

    (click to enlarge)

    These strategies have been backtested over a limited timeframe and shown to produce good growth with minimum risk, but future results may be dependent on factors not considered. Use these recommendations at your own risk.

    Jul 31 9:37 PM | Link | 5 Comments
  • ETF Recommendations For July 16, 2014

    Please realize you use these recommendations at your own risk. I am not a registered financial advisor. If for any unforeseen reason I do not post the recommendations for the next period, please sell the ETFs and go to cash.

    Shown below are the July 16, 2014 ETF updates for the tactical strategies I have discussed in my Seeking Alpha articles. July 16th is the day to make your trades on these strategies. More information on the strategies can be found in the linked articles.

    The figures shown below are taken from ETFreplay calculations, and the entire 2014 selections and results are presented. I have been tracking most of these strategies in real time since the beginning of 2014. All of the strategies have been backtested, some as far back as 2000, but all have been backtested to 2008 (except RRBS3).

    Here are the strategies that are presented below:

    Equity Strategies:

    SSSEquity4 Strategy

    AllAssetsExceptBonds Strategy

    Bond Strategies:

    Bond-Only Strategy

    Low Volatility Bond Strategy, LVB

    Rising Rates Bond Strategy, RRBS3

    Simple Bond Strategy on HYLD/SHY

    Municipal Bond Strategy, MBS

    Combined Strategies:

    Schwab Commission-Free Strategy -60% Equity/40% Bonds

    Unified Tactical Strategy, UTS - 60% Equity/40% Bonds

    Unified Bond Strategy, UBS - 100% Bonds

    SSSEquity4 Strategy

    (click to enlarge)

    (click to enlarge)

    AllAssetsExceptBonds Strategy

    (click to enlarge)

    (click to enlarge)

    Bond-Only Strategy

    (click to enlarge)

    (click to enlarge)

    Low Volatility Bond Strategy, LVB

    (click to enlarge)

    (click to enlarge)

    RisingRatesBondStrategy, RRBS3

    (click to enlarge)

    (click to enlarge)

    Simple Bond Strategy on HYLD/SHY

    Trade on Day of 3 Day & 25 Day Moving Average Ratio Crossover

    Please note: If you are interested in this strategy, I can send you an alert the day it occurs. Please send me a Seeking Alpha message asking to be included on the HYLD/SHY alert list. Please include your email address (no one can see it but me).

    Buy: Jan. 2, 2014 Sell: Open Trade (but we could be close)

    (click to enlarge)

    (click to enlarge)

    Municipal Bond Strategy, MBS

    (click to enlarge)

    (click to enlarge)

    Schwab Commission-Free Strategy

    (click to enlarge)

    (click to enlarge)

    Unified Tactical Strategy

    This strategy combines SSSEquity4 (30%), AllAssetsExceptBonds (30%), and LVB (40%).

    (click to enlarge)

    (click to enlarge)

    Unified Bond Strategy

    This strategy combines Bond-Only Strategy (25%), LVB Strategy (25%), and RisingRatesBondStrategy, RRBS3 (50%).

    (click to enlarge)

    (click to enlarge)

    These strategies have been backtested over a limited timeframe and shown to produce good growth with minimum risk, but future results may be dependent on factors not considered. Use these recommendations at your own risk.

    Jul 15 9:39 PM | Link | 3 Comments
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