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Cliff Smith
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I am currently a retired Aerospace Engineer. I am married with three children and eight grandchildren. I was born in San Francisco, CA in 1949 and moved to Newport News, VA in 1951 where I lived until I went to college. By God's grace, I received a B.S. degree from Virginia Tech (1972), a M.S.... More
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  • No Longer Posting QTS

    I will no longer be posting the Quarterly Tactical Strategy, QTS, selection anymore. I feel there are better tactical strategies, and I personally feel the QTS is too risky. I have been working on a safer version of QTS, but I haven't published an article on it.

    Thanks for your interest in QTS.


    Oct 01 8:39 AM | Link | 4 Comments
  • QTS Selection For 6/30/2015: VB (Or NAESX)

    Please use this information at your own risk.

    The QTS strategy has selected VB as the top-ranked ETF for the third quarter, 2015. For the mutual fund version, NAESX was the top-ranked fund.

    VB and NAESX pass their 3-month SMAs, so they are the picks this quarter.

    Last quarter, this strategy picked the cash fund. If you selected the original cash fund (VUSTX or TLT), you would have lost 8.7% or 9.6% respectively for the second quarter. If you opted to go to pure cash (my option), you would have lost nothing last quarter.

    Jun 30 8:17 PM | Link | 5 Comments
  • QTS Pick For 3/31/2015: TLT (Or VUSTX)

    Please use this information at your own risk.

    The QTS strategy has selected VNQ as the top-ranked ETF for the second quarter, 2015. VNQ barely beat out VB. For the mutual fund version, VGSIX was the top-ranked fund.

    But VNQ did not pass its 3-month SMA. It was quite close, but the 3-month SMA was just below the quarter-end value of VNQ. Thus, the cash ETF is selected (in this case TLT). For the mutual fund version, the cash is VUSTX.

    A safer cash position would be SHY (or just pure cash). But I will leave that for you to decide.

    For the first quarter, QTS selected VNQ; its return was 4.7%, For comparison, the S&P 500 returned 0.9% in the first quarter of 2015.

    Mar 31 8:04 PM | Link | 3 Comments
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