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Cliff Wachtel

 
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  • The Must-Watch Top Market Movers To Monitor This Week
    Sun, Sep. 14 DIA, SPY, QQQ 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Technical Outlook: Medium-term bullish, short-term bearish.
    • Fundamental Outlook 1: Three big likely market drivers this week the top calendar events to monitor.
    • Fundamental Outlook 2: Top calendar events to watch.
  • EUR/USD Weekly Outlook: Bounce Or Collapse? Here's What Decides
    Sun, Sep. 14 FXE, UUP, UDN 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Technical Outlook: Near term neutral, longer term bearish.
    • Fundamental Outlook 1: Prior week’s drivers, lessons.
    • Fundamental Outlook 2: Coming week’s drivers, lessons, and what could bring a EURUSD reversal.
  • The Coming Week's Top Market Movers, Lessons: The Drivers, Questions That Actually Matter
    Mon, Sep. 8 DIA, SPY, QQQ Comment!

    Summary

    • Technical Outlook: Short term neutral US And Asia, neutral/bullish for Europe, medium term bullish all 3 regions.
    • Fundamental Outlook 1: Lessons from the latest on the state of the global stock rally, the ECB’s new stimulus moves, US jobs reports, and more.
    • Fundamental Outlook 2: Likely market movers for this week and beyond, and how weak EU PMIs moved multiple markets.
    • Biggest questions & what to watch to answer them.
  • EUR/USD Weekly Outlook: Is EUR/USD Finally Primed For A Bounce?
    Sun, Sep. 7 FXE, UUP, UDN 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Technical Outlook: Near term neutral, longer term bearish.
    • Fundamental Outlook Part 1: Top market movers, related lessons – just 1 big driver, many ramifications.
    • Fundamental Outlook Part 2: Lessons from ECB, US jobs reports, Ukraine pain.
    • Fundamental Outlook Part 3: Coming week market movers - variations on current themes.
    • Biggest questions for the EUR/USD.
  • The Coming Week's Top Market Movers, Lessons: The Only Thing Driving Global Markets
    Mon, Sep. 1 DIA, SPY, QQQ 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Technical Outlook: European stocks rise, close gap with US, Asia, despite miserable data, Russian invasion of Ukraine. Guess Why?
    • Fundamental Outlook: The only market driver that really matters, how long the bull market can last, why, and what to monitor.
    • The Key Questions: What to ask for the coming week and beyond.
  • EUR/USD Weekly Outlook: Technical Breakdowns, Fundamental Drivers - Coming 'Sell The News' Bounce?
    Sun, Aug. 31 DIA, SPY, QQQ 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Technical Outlook: Another failed bottoming attempt and implications, likely trading range this week.
    • Fundamental Outlook Summary: The recent fundamental drivers strengthening, and what could counter them and lift the pair.
    • Fundamental Outlook 1: Daily market movers and lessons learned from them.
    • Fundamental Outlook 2: Lessons and likely market movers for the coming week and beyond.
  • The EU: The End Is Near? Existential Threats And Decisions Approach
    Mon, Aug. 25 EU 13 Comments

    Summary

    • Existential Threat #1: Unsustainable debt loads that could destroy the EU require a fully empowered ECB.
    • Existential Threat #2: Undercapitalized banks present systemic risk to EU, global banking. This too requires a fully empowered central bank that can act fast with needed cash.
    • Implications: A US of Europe but apparent lack of political will and popular support for implied loss of member state sovereignty may doom the EU.
  • The Coming Week's Top Market Movers, Lessons: EU'S Moment Of Truth Approaching?
    Mon, Aug. 25 SPY, UUP, FXE Comment!

    Summary

    • Technical Outlook: European indexes diverge from those of US, Asia, reflecting Europe’s underperformance.
    • Fundamental Outlook: They key drivers continue to dominate, Ukraine and weekly data playing secondary role as markets rally despite Ukraine and mixed data.
    • Longer Term Fundamental Threats: EU existential threats demand existential decisions.
  • EUR/USD Weekly Outlook: Continued Plunging? Here's What To Watch
    Sun, Aug. 24 FXE, UUP, UDN 5 Comments

    Summary

    • Technical Outlook: Accelerating deterioration of support, momentum.
    • Fundamental Outlook: Ukraine, data gap, rate expectations gap all favoring USD over EUR.
    • Fundamental Outlook 2: Italian Debt Sustainability & Other Threats.
  • This Week's Top Market Movers, Lessons: Data Versus Ukraine
    Mon, Aug. 18 UUP, UDN, FXE 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Technical Outlook: European indexes diverging from US and Asia, but no material signs of market reversal, only correction.
    • Fundamental Outlook - Market Movers: Ukraine events most dominant, followed by EU data as ECB likely to move alter policy before the Fed or other leading central banks.
    • Fundamental Outlook - Lessons: Data gap between US and Europe, fundamental challenges for each region.
  • EUR/USD Coming Week Outlook: Bottoming Or New Ukraine Pain A Game Changer?
    Sun, Aug. 17 FXE, UUP, UDN 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Technical Outlook: Short Term Neutral, Medium Term Bearish.
    • Fundamental Outlook 1: Ukraine Escalation Set To Dominate Markets?
    • Fundamental Outlook 2: If Ukraine Calms, EU Data Key.
  • The Coming Week's Top Market Movers, Lessons: A Normal Bull Market Correction?
    Mon, Aug. 11 SPY, FXE, UUP 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Technical Outlook: Regional divergences and their implications.
    • Fundamental Outlook 1: The state of the key market underpinnings and other lessons.
    • Fundamental Outlook 2: Likely market drivers for the coming week.
  • EUR/USD Coming Week Technical, Fundamental Outlook And Why USD Is Rising While Rates Fall
    Sun, Aug. 10 UUP, UDN, SPY 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Technical Outlook: Short term neutral, medium term bearish.
    • Fundamental Outlook: Neutral to bullish if Ukraine situation stays calm, longer term fundamentals remain bearish, favoring USD gains.
    • Why USD remains resilient despite falling US rates.
    • Top questions for EURUSD traders.
  • EUR/USD Weekly Outlook: Downtrend To Resume Or Reverse? Here's What Decides
    Sun, Aug. 3 FXE, UUP, UDN 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Technical Outlook: Near term neutral, longer term bearish as detailed below.
    • Fundamental Outlook: Neutral Near Term, Bearish Longer Term & Why.
    • 3Trader Positioning: Longs Primed To Capitulate On Signs Of Further Weakness?
  • The Coming Week's Top Market Movers, Lessons: Here's What Actually Matters, And What Doesn't
    Mon, Jul. 21 FXE, SPY, UUP Comment!

    Summary

    • Technical Outlook: Divergences between US, Asia, and Europe and messages from the charts about what is and isn’t driving markets.
    • Fundamental Outlook: Lessons on what is, and isn’t behind the trends on the weekly index charts.
    • What To Monitor This Week And Beyond: Sources of potential market movers.
  • EUR/USD Weekly Outlook: What's Driving The Current Trading Range, What Will Break It
    Sun, Jul. 20 FXE, UUP, UDN Comment!

    Summary

    • Technical Outlook: Remains within 1.35-7 trading range, any breaches of the 1.35 area likely just temporary as long as the fundamentals that have supported the EURUSD hold. Bearish directional bias.
    • Fundamental Outlook: Neutral near term, bearish longer term, and what could change this outlook.
    • Trader Positioning: Pros steady, small retail traders shift strongly to the long site.
    • Conclusions: What’s preserving the current likely trading range and what to monitor to anticipate the eventual breakout.
  • EUR/USD June 29 Weekly Technical, Fundamental Forecast: Lessons, Potential Drivers For The Week
    Sun, Jun. 29 FXE, UUP, UDN Comment!

    Summary

    • Technical Outlook: Neutral momentum plus strong support and resistance nearby suggests a tight trading range for the coming week, 1.355-67.
    • Fundamental Outlook: Neutral near term, bearish longer term. Weekly calendar has the most potential of the month to move the EURUSD. That potential is unlikely to be realized.
    • Fed, ECB policies set in coming months, top tier events aren’t really market movers, just excuses for the EURUSD to make modest moves within its trading range.
    • Thus support, resistance, other technical indicators as important as any fundamentals for this kind of tight trading range-bound outlook.
    • Conclusions: Range bound for now and what could change that.
  • Must-Know Market Movers To Watch And Lessons For The Week Of June 22, 2014
    Mon, Jun. 23 DIA, SPY, QQQ 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Technical Outlook: Last week’s sell-off just a technical correction as indexes, EURUSD, other risk assets recover most or all of losses, indicators suggest risk assets look to continue drift higher.
    • Fundamental Outlook: The fundamental drivers of the current bull market remain in place, weekly data losing influence because they’re not influencing central bank policy for US, EU, etc.
    • Conclusions: Likely market direction and what could change it even in this low volatility environment.
  • Oil, Gold, Inflation: Connecting The Dots
    Mon, Jun. 23 GLD, USO, IAU 12 Comments

    Summary

    • Oil prices boosted by Iraq fighting. What could drive them higher and how far they are likely to rise before they hurt US, global economy.
    • Gold and energy are rare pockets of volatility in global markets becalmed by central banks working on autopilot. Gold and oil are moving in sync and the lessons that implies.
    • Inflation rising in US: What that does and doesn’t mean.
    • Some concluding thoughts on oil, gold, inflation, and intermarket relationships.
  • EUR/USD June 22 Weekly Technical, Fundamental Forecast: A New Set Of EUR/USD Drivers?
    Sun, Jun. 22 FXE, UUP, UDN 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Technical Outlook: Neutral in the near term, bearish in the medium term.
    • Fundamental Outlook: Neutral as the Fed and ECB are keeping policies and thus rates steady. Why EUR data gains some importance.
    • Why the pair’s prime drivers become overall risk appetite... and oil prices?
    • Conclusion: Tight trading range this week, to drift with overall risk appetite. See below for why, and what could alter that conclusion.
  • Must-Know Market Movers To Watch And Lessons For Week Of June 16, 2014
    Sun, Jun. 15 DIA, SPY, QQQ 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Technical Outlook: Short Term Neutral with bearish bias, medium term bullish.
    • Fundamental Outlook: There are only a few events this week with market moving potential, but some important lessons for the coming week and beyond.
    • Lessons: Including five reasons stocks fell last week, likely market movers this week.
    • Concluding Thoughts: Likely market direction, what could support and oppose that move, and what we must monitor.
  • EUR/USD June 16 Weekly Technical, Fundamental Forecast: Breakdown Or Bounce? Here's What Decides
    Sun, Jun. 15 FXE, UUP, UDN Comment!

    Summary

    • Technical Outlook: Edging towards confirmed top. As for a reversal, we need a lower move before we can call the start of the next leg down.
    • Fundamental Outlook: Neutral near term, bearish longer term. Light calendar suggests fundamentals not likely to move the pair.
    • Conclusions: Confirmed break or holding of support could determine the pair’s direction given the likely lack of fundamental surprises. FOMC optimism might provide the push needed.
    • Trader Positioning: Retail traders making classic mistake of playing a bounce that hasn’t started.
    • Conclusions: What’s needed to change expectations, and bring a EURUSD breakout.
  • Must-Know Market Movers To Watch And Lessons For Week Of June 9
    Mon, Jun. 9 2 Comments

    Summary

    • TECHNICAL OUTLOOK: Bullish for global stocks and other risk assets as upward momentum improves and psychologically important overhead resistance beckons for a test higher.
    • FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: The key supports of the multi-year rally remain in place, now augmented by new ECB stimulus and the promise of more coming.
    • CONCLUSIONS: A quiet economic calendar but many important lessons and potential market movers worth watching.
    • BIGGEST LESSONS: An EU version of QE, QEU, is coming. Many ramifications for all investors.
  • The ECB Stimulus Package: What Every Investor Must Know For Protection And Profit
    Mon, Jun. 9 FXE, UUP, UDN 5 Comments

    Summary

    • More Stimulus Steps Coming: We knew that but Drahgi’s admission was was a key element with many ramifications to be felt in the coming months.
    • Get Ready For QEU: ECB’s already doing it, really, not ready to “come out of the closet,” but it will, with German approval too. Many must know ramifications.
    • Likely Impact, intended, unintended, and risks.
    • Protection and profit guidelines for the now and coming new “QEU”. See our full report for details.
    • Your Chance For Fame - Name that QE Contest: Fed’s owns plain “QE,” ECB’s version needs unique name. Test your creativity, claim the name before some pundit or hedgie!
  • EUR/USD Weekly Forecast June 8, 2014: Huge Lessons, And Coming QE-EU?
    Sun, Jun. 8 Comment!

    Summary

    • Technical Outlook: Near term bullish, medium term neutral. As suspected we indeed got our “sell the rumor buy the news” bounce after the ECB met but didn't exceed expectations.
    • The big technical question: With bearish uncertainty about ECB easing gone, will it resume usual tracking of risk appetite as portrayed by the S&P 500 and other leading indexes?
    • Fundamental Outlook: Summary of ramifications of the ECB’s package, what it meant and what it didn’t, and whether this and other fundamentals support a bounce.
  • The Coming Week's Top Market Movers, Lessons: Did We Just See 2014's Biggest Story?
    Mon, Jun. 2 DIA, SPY, QQQ 1 Comment

    Summary

    • The Big One: The ECB rate statement and press conference Thursday June 5th, Explanation, ramifications, scenarios.
    • The monthly US jobs reports and related leading indicator reports.
    • Other top potential market movers: Geopolitical, scheduled, and developing ones to monitor.
  • Lessons For The Coming Week And Beyond: What's Behind The Rally And Headlines?
    Mon, Jun. 2 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Technical Outlook: Modest upward momentum revives.
    • Fundamental Outlook, Near Term: Likely near term drivers behind the rally despite mixed data, longer term potential market movers on the horizon.
    • Fundamental Outlook, Longer Term: Longer term potential market movers on the horizon.
  • EUR/USD Weekly Forecast June 1, 2014, Technical, Fundamental Analysis: This Week Decides - Breakdown Or Rebound
    Sun, Jun. 1 FXE, UUP, UDN Comment!

    Summary

    • Technical Outlook: Near term bullish, medium term neutral. Odds favor a “sell the news” bounce after ECB’s expected easing steps. Likely support, resistance levels that limit up, down moves.
    • Fundamental Outlook: Bullish near term as neither ECB easing nor US jobs & related reports expected to fuel more downtrend. Neutral medium term as discussed below.
    • Trader Positioning: Also suggests mild bounce.
    • Conclusions: Some potentially big drivers and the major surprises needed from them to fuel a breakout from recent trading range.
  • 2014's Biggest Investment Story: Lower U.S. Rates For A Much Longer Time
    Mon, May. 26 DIA, SPY, QQQ 9 Comments

    Summary

    • Leaks From Bernanke “Private” Dinners: Low Rates For Much Longer Than Expected.
    • FOMC’s Incoming New Governors: Strengthening Yellen’s Dovish Hand, Reinforce This Idea.
    • Already, Unwinding of Short Positions Forcing Bond Prices Up And Yields Down.
    • Ramifications For Markets, Guidelines On How To Profit.
  • The Coming Week's Top Market Movers, Lessons: Did We Just See 2014'S Biggest Story?
    Mon, May. 26 DIA, SPY, QQQ Comment!

    Summary

    • Technical Outlook: Strong support is tested and holds, as does upward momentum.
    • Fundamental Outlook: Why stocks continue drifting higher, falling US rates are arguably the biggest lesson of 2014?
    • Likely Market Movers This Week: Technical elements, calendar and other fundamentals.
    • Concluding Thoughts: Ukraine, and what US data needs to show us.
  • EUR/USD Weekly Outlook: Long-Term Trend Reversal? Drivers, Ramifications, How To Profit
    Sun, May. 25 ERO, UUP, UDN Comment!

    Summary

    • Technical Outlook: Edging towards trend topping and reversing, key levels to watch and why.
    • Fundamental Outlook: New developments feeding the same drivers - EU data, Fed rate revelations, matter only insofar as they influence speculation on ECB easing.
    • What To Watch: Further Fed signals of low rates for longer term, elections, US GDP, etc.
    • Trader Positioning: Our sample group continues to make a classic beginners mistake.
  • Top Lessons, Market Movers, And Questions For The Coming Week
    Mon, May. 19 ALSMY, GE, GOOG Comment!

    Summary

    • Technical Outlook: Upward Momentum Intact – But Beware Growing Signs Of Indecision.
    • Fundamental Outlook: Primary data trends, market drivers- what’s changed, what hasn’t, what actually might, and what matters.
    • New declarations that the EU has been saved – and why they’re wrong, and other top lessons, likely market drivers, and questions for the coming week and beyond.