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Cliff Wachtel

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  • EUR/USD Weekly Outlook: And Now, The Storm After The Calm
    Sun, Mar. 30 AA, FXE, UUP Comment!

    Summary

    • Technical Outlook: Near term (daily chart) bearish, longer term (weekly chart) neutral. See conclusions for likely range and bullish/bearish breakout points this week.
    • Fundamental Outlook: Neutral Near Term, Bearish Longer Term – see conclusions for why.
    • Retail Trader Positioning: Recent shift to more long positions has bearish implications.
    • Conclusions: More volatility, but in which direction? The fundamentals to watch for the near and long term, along with likely support and resistance levels.
  • Lessons For The Coming Week: Top Threats And Supports For U.S., Global Markets
    Mon, Mar. 24 AA, DIA, SPY Comment!

    Summary

    • Technical Outlook: Mixed.
    • Fundamental Drivers: Overview of what’s need to sustain global bull market.
    • US: Earnings metrics, Fed policy.
    • State Of Likely Crisis Flashpoints: EU, Japan, China.
  • EU Banking Pact Update: The EU's Latest Nail In Its Own Coffin
    Sun, Mar. 23 FXE, UUP, DIA 8 Comments

    Summary

    • The first SRM deal was a failure, too slow, too underfunded.
    • The EU Parliament sought to remedy these faults.
    • The final compromise deal struck with representatives of member states is better.
    • However, it’s still an existential threat to the EU, here’s why.
    • Conclusions and ideas on how to profit.
  • EUR/USD Weekly Outlook: The Calm Before The Storm?
    Sun, Mar. 23 AA, FXE, UUP 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Technical Outlook: Near term neutral, longer term bullish.
    • Fundamental Outlook: Neutral near term, bearish longer term.
    • Trader Positioning: Reminiscent Of the last big EUR/USD pullback per two surveys.
    • Conclusions: some potentially potent drivers, however.
  • USD/JPY Weekly Outlook: Russia To USD/JPY Bulls, BoJ... 'Crimea River'
    Mon, Mar. 17 FXY, UUP, UDN Comment!

    Summary

    • Technical Outlook: Short Term Bearish, Medium Term Neutral/Bullish.
    • Fundamental Outlook Short Term: Bearish.
    • Medium Term: Bullish.
  • EUR/USD Weekly Outlook: Resilient, Technically Bullish, However...
    Sun, Mar. 16 FXE, UUP, EUO Comment!

    Summary

    • Technical Outlook, Bullish.
    • Fundamental Outlook, Bearish: Russia, China Stoke Fear, Fed Stays The Course.
    • Top Calendar Events.
    • Weekly Outlook, Neutral-Bullish.
  • Lessons For The Coming Week: Implications Of U.S Jobs Report, Ukraine, And More
    Mon, Mar. 10 SPY, DIA, QQQ 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Technical Picture: Russia Invades, Markets Rise Anyway.
    • Fundamental Picture: Key Lessons From Around The World.
    • Lessons From The US: Jobs Report Implications And More.
    • Lessons From Europe: Deflation Signs, Crimea Implications For Investors.
    • Lesson From China: Not All Default Has Systemic Risk.
  • Ukraine Crisis Escalation - Winners, Losers And How To Profit
    Mon, Mar. 10 BA, CVX, VET 17 Comments

    Summary

    • Crisis Background & Chronology.
    • General Economic Effects.
    • Specific Winners And Losers.
    • Outcomes, Ramifications.
  • Weekly Global Indexes Wrap: Daily Recap, Market Movers, Crimean Punishment?
    Sun, Mar. 9 DIA, SPY, QQQ 9 Comments

    Summary

    • A daily summary of global stock index price action.
    • What caused it in Asia, Europe and the US.
    • Overall good data, momentum, & yield seeking overcome Crimea uncertainties.
  • EUR/USD Weekly Outlook: Clarifying The Mixed Technical And Fundamental Picture
    Sun, Mar. 9 UUP, UDN, FXE Comment!

    Summary

    • Short term technical picture, fundamental drivers, and entry/exit points.
    • What Could Reverse The EURUSD Up Trend.
    • Calendar Events: Crimea Succession Vote Dominates.
    • Conclusions.
  • Lessons For The Coming Week: Stimulus, Life And Debt Issues From Around The World
    Sun, Mar. 2 CCJ, CNY, UUP Comment!
  • Global Markets Weekly Quick Wrap: Daily Recap, Market Drivers, And The One Big Question
    Sun, Mar. 2 DIA, SPY, QQQ Comment!
  • EUR/USD Weekly Outlook: Short Term Up, Longer Term Down, And Why
    Sun, Mar. 2 DIA, SPY, QQQ Comment!
  • The Coming Week: Top Market Movers, Lessons, Ramifications, And Biggest Threat
    Mon, Feb. 24 DIA, SPY, QQQ Comment!
  • Biggest Market Threat Of All? Does QE Trap Mean Taper Is Tightening?
    Mon, Feb. 24 DIA, SPY, QQQ 3 Comments
  • Global Markets Review 2 Minute Drill: Daily Recap, Market Movers
    Sun, Feb. 23 DIA, SPY, QQQ 1 Comment
  • EUR/USD Weekly Outlook February 24th: Trend Vs. Resistance, Which Wins And Why
    Sun, Feb. 23 UUP, UDN, FXE 1 Comment
  • Lessons For The Coming Week Part 2: More Life And Debt Issues, EU Fracture Signs
    Tue, Feb. 18 DIA, SPY, QQQ 4 Comments
  • Lessons For The Coming Market Week: Matters Of Life And Debt, Top Market Movers
    Sun, Feb. 16 DIA, SPY, QQQ 6 Comments
  • Global Markets Weekly Quick Wrap: Daily Recap, Market Movers... What's Driving The Rebound
    Sun, Feb. 16 DIA, SPY, QQQ 3 Comments
  • EUR/USD Weekly Outlook February 17th: Key Drivers For Coming Week And Longer Term
    Sun, Feb. 16 UUP, UDN, FXE Comment!
  • Coming Week Lessons Part 2: 8 Lessons And Top Market Movers
    Mon, Feb. 10 DIA, SPY, QQQ Comment!
  • Coming Week Lessons From The U.S. - Top Questions, Market Movers To Watch
    Mon, Feb. 10 DIA, SPY, QQQ Comment!
  • Global Markets Weekly 2 Minute Drill: Daily Recap And Market Movers - Calming Despite Data
    Sun, Feb. 9 DIA, SPY, QQQ Comment!
  • EUR/USD Weekly Outlook: Likely Direction, Must-Watch Drivers, Price Points
    Sun, Feb. 9 DIA, SPY, QQQ 2 Comments
  • Coming Week Lessons Part 2: The Common Driver Of EU, Japan, China, EM Developments
    Mon, Feb. 3 BHP, EM, GFC 1 Comment
  • Coming Week Lessons Part 1: State Of The Global Rally, U.S. Developments
    Mon, Feb. 3 DIA, SPY, QQQ Comment!
  • Global Markets Weekly 2 Minute Drill: Daily Recap And Top Market Movers
    Mon, Feb. 3 BA, CAT, DHI 2 Comments
  • EUR/USD Weekly Outlook: Why More Downtrend Likely And What Drivers Will Decide
    Sun, Feb. 2 DIA, SPY, QQQ 2 Comments
  • Lessons For The Coming Week: Top Global Market Drivers
    Mon, Jan. 27 SPY, DIA, QQQ Comment!
  • Was The Sell-Off The Start Of Something Bigger? Here's The Evidence
    Mon, Jan. 27 DIA, SPY, QQQ 2 Comments
  • Top Global Market Movers 2 Minute Drill: What Moved Markets Each Day
    Mon, Jan. 27 CAT, GE, GS Comment!