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Cliff Wachtel

 
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  • Annaly Capital: The Old Squeeze Play Could Hurt This Stock [View article]
    Excellent article, alerting us to a widely ignored threat to mREITs. Too many of us (me too) have been to focused on Fed's intent to keep rates low and/or rising slowly (great for mReits), thinking the only concern was whether Fed, aided by ECB BoJ, and other central banks, could cool speculation of rising rates (so far, yes).

    If you just focus on the above, mReits look like a reasonable risk for such high yields.

    Spread definitely something else to watch.

    Some outstanding comments too.
    Josh B has key point about an often neglected aspect here, the currency component.

    USD bottoming and reversal of decade-plus downtrend appears to be underway. Note that currency trends tend to be very persistent (vs. stocks) for many reasons (discussed in prior articles and in my book), most importantly because it takes a lot longer to reverse fundamentals of an entire country than of a single company, and longer still to for the RELATIVE fundamentals of 2 countries to change (currencies trade in pairs, so a trend reversal requires relative improvement in fundamentals of one economy over the other).

    a prolonged USD bull should help keep rates low (though not necessarily affect the 2 yr/10yr spread as it keeps t bill/note demand up.

    Looking forward to updates on the yield spread from the author.

    bonus link: see link below from telegraph on additional implications of USD bull mkt.


    http://bit.ly/1wPi4Nj
    Dec 18, 2014. 10:05 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • At the close [View news story]
    spelling: treasurIES,
    Nov 21, 2014. 08:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Strategy: Our Beginner's Portfolio Continues To Produce Greater Income [View article]
    5 year time horizon risky, too little time to recover if get pullback. NB: Fed believed to want 10 yr yld back to ~4% by 2018-20. (ie 25-50 bps/ year rise for next few years) all depends on how well CBs manage expectations.

    Also, if CBs like ECB, BOJ keep rates lower, foreign $ will be attracted to US mkt both by US yields and growing USD rise fx gains vs EUR, JPY provide foreign exchange gains bonus
    Nov 20, 2014. 12:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Strategy: Our Beginner's Portfolio Continues To Produce Greater Income [View article]
    yes, much depends on how well CBs can maintain low rates and keep markets from anticipating rate spikes. If they can, no major pullbacks unless recession.
    Nov 20, 2014. 11:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Strategy: Our Beginner's Portfolio Continues To Produce Greater Income [View article]
    Great concept. Very useful & attuned for SA audience, looking forward to catching up & following.
    Nov 20, 2014. 11:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Strategy: Our Beginner's Portfolio Continues To Produce Greater Income [View article]
    Great concept. Very useful & attuned for SA audience, looking forward to catching up & following.
    Nov 20, 2014. 11:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Strategy: Our Beginner's Portfolio Continues To Produce Greater Income [View article]
    Great concept. Very useful & attuned for SA audience, looking forward to catching up & following.
    Nov 20, 2014. 11:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Market Topped Out [View article]
    haven't all of the above factor been around for 6-18 months or more?
    good summary of structural weaknesses, but I'm missing the author's argument for why market topped now, though one could argue that ECB action and EU data in recent months has brought a dawning awareness that EU remains unimproved.
    Oct 10, 2014. 10:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Market Topped Out [View article]
    haven't all of the above factor been around for 6-18 months or more?
    good summary of structural weaknesses, but I'm missing the author's argument for why market topped now, though one could argue that ECB action and EU data in recent months has brought a dawning awareness that EU remains unimproved.
    Oct 10, 2014. 10:45 AM | 21 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The EU: The End Is Near? Existential Threats And Decisions Approach [View article]
    agreed
    have said that in other articles, tried to keep this focused on the points raised
    bottom line, EU states lack the desire to sacrifice autonomy for the needed integration, it is this ultimate preference for sovereignty over theoretical (?) economic benefits that dooms the EU.

    As we saw in its banking union pact, no one was really giving up much national control nor were they committing to be liable for someone else's banks.

    US of Europe is what is needed, but it's not possible. Better they should seek to preserve elements of a common trading zone (no tariffs, free movement of workers, etc) without Procrustean bed of single currency and economic policy applied to disparate economies and cultures.

    Big question is how long it takes before leaders are willing to admit the mistake. Probably only when they must either pony up big $ to pay for another nations' mismanagement and decide costs outweigh benefits of continuing EU
    Aug 26, 2014. 03:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The EU: The End Is Near? Existential Threats And Decisions Approach [View article]
    agreed
    have said that in other articles, tried to keep this focused on the points raised
    bottom line, EU states lack the desire to sacrifice autonomy for the needed integration, it is this ultimate preference for sovereignty over theoretical (?) economic benefits that dooms the EU.

    As we saw in its banking union pact, no one was really giving up much national control nor were they committing to be liable for someone else's banks.

    US of Europe is what is needed, but it's not possible. Better they should seek to preserve elements of a common trading zone (no tariffs, free movement of workers, etc) without Procrustean bed of single currency and economic policy applied to disparate economies and cultures.

    Big question is how long it takes before leaders are willing to admit the mistake. Probably only when they must either pony up big $ to pay for another nations' mismanagement and decide costs outweigh benefits of continuing EU
    Aug 26, 2014. 03:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EUR/USD Weekly Outlook: Continued Plunging? Here's What To Watch [View article]
    correct, I was referring to how the fed sees inflation from the perspective of need to raise rates.
    I should have been clearer on that - my bad
    Aug 25, 2014. 08:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Week's Top Market Movers, Lessons: Data Versus Ukraine [View article]
    Good point. Common wisdom is that GFC has already forced firms to cut what they could so that most of marginal benefits from cost cutting exhausted. Obviously would vary in some cases as changes in business conditions or technology open up new venues for cost savings (case in point -Kinder-Morgan reorganization )
    Aug 19, 2014. 09:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's The Alarming Table Kinder Morgan Doesn't Want You To See [View article]
    Would like to thank hedgeye for providing excellent long entry points in the months leading up to KMI merger that allowed us to augment holdings. More than made up for the caution selling I did on LINN, which was the lesson to buy your manufactured dips in the future once the stock stabilizes. The lesson served us well on KMP, etc, and really helped with the kids' college funds.

    Not easy to find good income values these days, but thanks to your efforts, was able to find a pocket of value.
    Aug 13, 2014. 09:55 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Characteristics Of High-Return Stocks [View article]
    of course none of those criteria help in bear mkt, as most stocks rise/fall with the indexes, but worth noting during bull markets
    Aug 8, 2014. 09:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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