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Cliff Wachtel  

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  • Retirement Strategy: The Oil Crash Could Be A Dividend Growth Investor's Best Friend Of The Decade [View article]
    not a matter of timing really, just staying out of the way of a strong trend.
    timing is about picking tops and bottoms. no sign of bottom here

    again, that said, I haven't sold any of my energy positions (mostly midstreams paying steady n high yld). just not adding at this time.
    Jul 28, 2015. 03:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Strategy: The Oil Crash Could Be A Dividend Growth Investor's Best Friend Of The Decade [View article]
    most energy stocks, even the truly less leveraged to commod prices like KMI or EPD, still in brutally strong downtrend, nothing equivocal about it. Trend following works best with exactly that kind of trend.
    Jul 28, 2015. 03:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Strategy: The Oil Crash Could Be A Dividend Growth Investor's Best Friend Of The Decade [View article]
    a reasonable approach
    tho article and comments suggest a genuine sense that we're in bargain territory, which again, is another way of saying we're near a bottom when available evidence suggests otherwise.

    wanna nibble a bit? your call, as long as you accept you'll probably be saying you should have waited, or don't even care as long as the divvy remains steady or grows.
    Jul 28, 2015. 03:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Strategy: The Oil Crash Could Be A Dividend Growth Investor's Best Friend Of The Decade [View article]
    bf,

    but to anyone remotely literate in technical analysis, stocks actually DO send pretty good signs of when a bottoming process has or has not begun.

    In the case of most energy stocks, even my beloved KMI and EPD, there is no room for debate - the downward momentum remains strong and anyone buying long as fighting a strong trend until proven otherwise. Trying to catch a bottom is ultimate dumb money mistake.

    Granted, an inexact forecasting process, but there is nothing in these charts suggesting a bottom has even begun.

    that's why NOT to buy until you've at least some evidence of that
    Jul 28, 2015. 03:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Strategy: The Oil Crash Could Be A Dividend Growth Investor's Best Friend Of The Decade [View article]
    Unless you must stay fully invested for income or other reasons, and/or don't care about forgoing likely lower prices and higher returns, why buy now?

    weekly charts of most energy companies continue to show strong downside momentum, making the odds high that these "bargains" are more likely falling knives.

    Seems foolish to attempt to fight such a strong trend that has yet to show signs of slowing. Barring some huge surprises, you will have time to see the bottoming and buy at similar prices with far less risk of lost opportunity to get more for your money.

    Not time to grab them yet.

    Disclosure: I own many divvy paying energy companies, continue to hold, have not sold. Am long term believer. But not adding positions much at this time, won't unless need more income now.

    Risk much higher than reward for most of them at this time given entrenched downward momentum by every indicator you care to use.
    Jul 28, 2015. 04:39 AM | 23 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much Kinder Morgan Is Too Much For A Dividend Growth Investor? [View article]
    again, foolish to take new longs in EPD given its equally (vs. KMI) strong intermediate - long term downtrend.

    Disclosure: As with KMI, I'm a long term holder and believer and have not sold.

    But to buy more now?

    That's only for those who need to be fully invested and don't mind accepting high odds of further downside and better prices/yields.

    Otherwise going long against this downtrend to attempt to pick a bottom is classic dumb money amateur's move.

    Charts indicate high odds of more downside. At least wait for evidence of bottoming. Barring a sudden intense price spike due to some unknown event, likelihood is you'll be able to get in at similar price with lower risk.

    See above reply to Ms. Conti's comments for details.
    Jul 28, 2015. 03:38 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much Kinder Morgan Is Too Much For A Dividend Growth Investor? [View article]
    Robin, This not time to buy $KMI. Charts scream falling knife. Until technical evidence of bottoming, foolish to fight such a strong downtrend.

    NB: I remain a long term believer and have not sold any of my KMI position. However, ...

    Risk outweighs reward, odds favor more downtrend. May be great long term investment, but why buy now when odds so strong in favor of more downside? Regardless of one's personal thesis, prudent investors NEVER fight such strong, entrenched downtrends.

    Details follow:

    to all those who believe Kinder's purchase is some kind of "all clear" sign, please note: (learn from my mistakes)

    Back around 2008 (?) Richard Thornburg also bought big lots not long before Thornburg Mortgage ( a former 'blue chip' mReit) crashed. It is not unknown for those with large stakes in a company to boost that stake a bit to bolster confidence. Still, you can reasonably argue that it's better to listen to Kinder than little ol' me.

    Fair enough.

    Btw, There were other smart money types also buying the 'bargain" Thornburg appeared to be (see: http://nyti.ms/1OxZiBl )

    The truly compelling bear case against buying more shares of KMI is the technical picture.

    It's weekly chart, like that of the midstream sector overall, remains a screamingly obvious falling knife, with momentum ( intermediate term - is weekly chart) still suggesting more downside ahead.

    For example, for the technically inclined, the weekly candles remain firmly in the double bollinger band sell zone (for explanation see:
    http://bit.ly/1NLiM5V for both summary of how to use this most useful tool as well as more detailed explanation).

    Other technical evidence suggest more of the same. Not the time to attempt to pick a bottom. A real amateur's mistake (unless you really need to stay fully invested and don't care about buying at a better price later, with better yield, and don't mind absorbing paper losses for a while.

    Regardless of what our fundamental thesis is, prudent traders/investors who are not certified prophets NEVER attempt to fade a strong trend (long or short) until they have adequate evidence that the trend has bottomed.

    There is nothing in the KMI chart to suggest that. Yes, yesterday's action was a nice bounce on above average volume. So what? We had that back on July 7th, back when KMI closed at 37.74, about 10% higher.

    Risk at this point continues to greatly exceed reward. Why attempt to pick a bottom in the absence of any evidence?

    Once again, author's failure to consider technical issues when choosing entry points grossly erodes his/her credibility.

    Unless you're a very long term investor who doesn't care about losing a chance to buy for less and for better yield, no reason to buy now.

    Worst case you miss the absolute bottom. Big deal. Attempting to pick bottoms is fool's game for most people, no matter how sophisticated.

    Sadly, I'm seeing a lot of these half-baked ill considered recommendations coming out these days in assorted income investor favorites with equally poor charts that put odds in favor of more downside. Risk outweighs reward.

    Stay tuned, plan on doing a rare post to school investors on the problem and how to distinguish between genuine potential bargains and falling knives
    Jul 28, 2015. 03:22 AM | 17 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan, Inc.: You Know It's Time To Double Down When The Bigwigs Are Getting Greedy For This 5%+ Yielder [View article]
    This not time to buy $KMI. Charts scream falling knife. Until technical evidence of bottoming, foolish to fight such a strong downtrend.

    Risk outweighs reward, odds favor more downtrend. Details follow:

    to all those who believe Kinder's purchase is some kind of "all clear" sign, please note: (learn from my mistakes)

    Back around 2008 (?) Richard Thornburg also bought big lots not long before Thornburg Mortgage ( a former 'blue chip' mReit) crashed. It is not unknown for those with large stakes in a company to boost that stake a bit to bolster confidence. Still, you can reasonably argue that it's better to listen to Kinder than little ol' me.

    Fair enough.

    Btw, There were other smart money types also buying the 'bargain" Thornburg appeared to be (see: http://nyti.ms/1OxZiBl )

    The truly compelling bear case against buying more shares of KMI is the technical picture.

    It's weekly chart, like that of the midstream sector overall, remains a screamingly obvious falling knife, with momentum ( intermediate term - is weekly chart) still suggesting more downside ahead.

    For example, for the technically inclined, the weekly candles remain firmly in the double bollinger band sell zone (for explanation see:
    http://bit.ly/1NLiM5V for both summary of how to use this most useful tool as well as more detailed explanation).

    Regardless of what our fundamental thesis is, prudent traders/investors who are not certified prophets NEVER attempt to fade a strong trend (long or short) until they have adequate evidence that the trend has bottomed.

    There is nothing in the KMI chart to suggest that. Yes, yesterday's action was a nice bounce on above average volume. So what? We had that back on July 7th, back when KMI closed at 37.74, about 10% higher.

    There's no reason not to remain a long term believer in KMI. However, ...

    Risk at this point continues to greatly exceed reward. Why attempt to pick a bottom in the absence of any evidence?

    Once again, author's failure to consider technical issues when choosing entry points grossly erodes his/her credibility.

    Unless you're a very long term investor who doesn't care about losing a chance to buy for less and for better yield, no reason to buy now.

    Worst case you miss the absolute bottom. Big deal. Attempting to pick bottoms is fool's game for most people, no matter how sophisticated.

    Sadly, I'm seeing a lot of these half-baked ill considered recommendations coming out these days in assorted income investor favorites with equally poor charts that put odds in favor of more downside. Risk outweighs reward.

    Stay tuned, plan on doing a rare post to school investors on the problem and how to distinguish between genuine potential bargains and falling knives
    Jul 28, 2015. 02:52 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Simple Math Behind Linn Energy [View article]
    tip for author: always define technical terms when writing for lay audience.
    does Mcfe = metric cost/foot of energy? something else?

    otherwise a fine analysis that actually seems to quantify risk for LINE and help us make an informed investing decision, unlike some other recent LINE articles that offered provocative headlines but little substance.

    Again, incumbent on all considering investments in any upstream energy firm to monitor longer term energy price trends.

    Those investing in for income need to also focus on stability and risk to the divvy and how low prices can get before the distribution or divvy at risk. Case in point, author is making a case that LINE divvy not sustainable long term. As I pointed out recently, its DCF is at 0.77 already. Below 1.0 implies cash flow not covering divvy. Note that there can be some volatility in this figure, so need to dig deeper. I'm not in LINE now so not bothering to do so.

    If the upstream firm isn't being bought for divvy, it's mostly a bet on the price of what it produces.
    Jul 8, 2015. 02:26 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AT&T: Avoid At All Costs As It's More Risky Than You Think [View article]
    a sensationalist title that even the summary then qualifies and contradicts

    slimy tactic

    SA editors should be alert for cheap spammy tricks to get page views

    agree or disagree with thesis, a writer to avoid
    Jul 7, 2015. 02:01 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Come On, Let's Face It, Linn Energy Is A Steal At $9 [View article]
    tune out the noise,
    watch long term energy price charts
    when we get some sustained range trading to signal a bottom, also a prolonged period of on the weekly charts in the Double Bollinger Band (DBB) Neutral zone to indicate that we've bottomed (see http://bit.ly/1NLiM5V ) for a good summary of how to read DBBs, my favorite technical indicator)

    then it would be time to start nibbling at the more stable energy plays (best of breed midstream MLPs, big oil, etc).

    Would be underweight or avoid the upstream (ie E&P) sector alone until we see some evidence of uptrend or have very firm conviction that the divvy is sustainable.

    That's why I was so hoping to see some evidence of divvy sustainability here.

    The picture not great per mlpdata.com (http://bit.ly/1NLiJHb), distribution coverage ration is 0.77 (below 1 means cash flow isn't covering the distributions so distributions not sustainable at current cash flow levels) and divvy growth is very negative.

    A steal? Hmmm.
    Jul 6, 2015. 08:48 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Come On, Let's Face It, Linn Energy Is A Steal At $9 [View article]
    LOL
    another reason LINE attracts a lot of mediocre articles, like any hi-yielder that is a leader in its sector (upstream in this case) there's a lot of interested readers waiting for the green light, so writing about LINE (EDP, KMI, NLY...etc) is an easy way to attract page views, especially if you can write a half way decent title, (it was indeed, kudos for solid copywriting) which might be the articles' strongest feature.
    Jul 6, 2015. 08:30 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Come On, Let's Face It, Linn Energy Is A Steal At $9 [View article]
    article would be convincing if it discussed oil and gas prices needed for LINE to be profitable or break even. It doesn't so article feels like we're getting a very partial picture.

    Can LINE be profitable at current prices? At lower ones? How much lower?
    THAT's what I was looking for. Didn't see it.

    Anyone know?

    momentum, overbought/oversold indicators like RSI kind of meaningless when sentiment strongly negative as statistical indicators assume all past data points used in the calculation are the same, They aren't, not if market believes fundamentals have shifted against LINE.

    weekly crude charts do seem to show oil bottoming - that would have been a point worth mentioning.

    article needed more research, looks like author just wanted to knock out something fast. No so helpful
    Jul 6, 2015. 06:09 AM | 76 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Haven't Been Paying Attention. What's Going On In Greece? [View article]
    thank you, thank you, for finally actually writing an article -- something that I can quickly skim for what's relevant -- rather than a those darned podcasts that i must sit thru start to finish, and thus ignore
    Jun 28, 2015. 11:33 AM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is HCP The REIT Buy Of The Year? [View article]
    meanwhile, whole healthcare REIT sector's charts look still look more like falling knives, maybe tentative bottoming.

    think rate hike concerns overdone, most likely will be small, slow, mostly symbolic, but not going to argue with those charts, which suggest downside momentum very much intact, regardless of fundamental story.

    in sum, technical picture suggests downtrend intact, more downside likely in coming months.
    Jun 26, 2015. 10:29 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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