Cramer's 'Best Of Breed' Energy MLP Plays [View article]
very legit point but this a case of even a broken clock right 2x per day, besides, Cramer hardly saying anything controversial here - kind of like saying Patriots and 'Niners should be in playoff hunt. Duuuuuh.
Still, no knock against author, was worth knowing what Cramer's feeding the masses.
Like most of market tho, these at/near highs.
More useful article would if had compelling arguments for best undervalued MLPS (some good ones recently on LINE, for example, tho LINE has more commodity risk as a more upstream player). Or perhaps SPH, which looks like has great yield and distribution coverage, tho has risk factors. see Ron Hiram's recent look at it. Also at highs tho, like most of the leading MLPs except for LINE due to the controversy over safety of distribution. David White and a few others seem to have made a compelling case in favor of LINE, especially for the longer term.
8.7% Dividend Payer Linn Energy Was Dissed At Ira Sohn - Is There Reason To Worry? [View article]
The usual fine article. key point here as with other articles on the whole LINE debate is really only about WHEN to get in - go long now or short in near term. Otherwise its all about the safety and growth of the distribution.
Ultimately, bets on LINE based on how one feels about energy in short and long term.
if see weakness in coming years, then sentiment on LINE depends on how much you trust BERY acquisition to help out and mgmt to weather the turbulence.
if you're bullish energy in long term, and a long term investor, only debate is when and how to get in. LINE a very good way to be long energy. Pays you well while you wait for prices to pick up, big enough to minimize commodity risk, even if that size limits % growth.
Kudos to author for all to rare reference to the very real market risks out there for all stock prices. Agreed that staged entry wise. Note that given LINE's high yield, opportunity cost of waiting is higher.
Wait a year and you've missed half or more of anticipated pullback - assuming you catch it right.
I'm no huge bull, but as I argued here (http://bit.ly/119dKp3 ) plenty of reasons stocks can at least hold ground if not rise - the weak fundamentals that threaten the rally have been around for years, QE has won thus far.
That said, EU could indeed whack markets for a correction beyond the 10-15%, so worth keeping some cash on sidelines with limit orders of some sort (or sell puts on LINE) in place at selected support levels - hard to buy when fear hits, so best to make buy decision in advance.
NB: note that while LINE is an upstream MLP and thus has more commodity risk, the character of MLP revenue can change. The more stable midstream MLPs can and do at times buy assets with more commodity and volume exposure, which adds risk/reward potential. Similarly, upstream firms like LINE can choose to add lower risk midstream assets - an option with the larger players like LINE.
I've got 25 years in the business and sometimes I can't figure out what's going on with a $2T bank balance sheet, says Mike Mayo at the JPMorgan (JPM +1.1%) annual meeting. What about your risk committee gives it the experience to do the proper job, he asks Jamie Dimon. Passing on a chance to respond with a zinger (that's why you're an analyst, not banker), Dimon notes it's the same committee that helped steer the bank before and during the financial crisis. [View news story]
I wonder if CEOs of Lehman, Bear, and AIG thought the same thing pre-2007? Granted his bank didn't hit same fate, though wonder how close it got and what would have happened if AIG and other bailouts not happened.
All gets down to how good is your hedging and how solid is your counter-party/insurer if you and others win a big bet against it -- all of them at the same time (which is what happens in crisis times)
Lessons For This Week: Still Safe To Enter This Rally? - Part 2 [View article]
Gunzo, thx for kind remarks fair enough - crystal ball currently being repaired actually all I thought I was saying is that I wouldn't bet against it meaning even though the fundamental case (beyond its being propped up by QE) is weak, you don't want to go short against this kind of momentum - that was my chief message, sorry if wasn't clearer. My hometown of Jerusalem famous for prophets, don't have the knack for it, sadly.
I don't know how much farther it will continue to rise. Momentum suggests rally not done
Lessons For This Week: Still Safe To Enter This Rally? - Part 2 [View article]
oh brother, I feel your pain. one thing to sit on sidelines for a year or two. another to do so for 4-5. Fortunately I did a pile of buying in early 2009 in certain currency diversified income stocks, but still frustrating to have idle cash.
Though with most income stocks still paying relatively low yields, not huge opportunity cost.
That said, once S&P 500 broke through decade old resistance, have to recognize that strength and consider some cautious buying, small positions, at least with some good divvy stocks that will keep paying regardless. Also keep stop losses in place so losses from pullback at acceptable levels. Occasionally get some dips on specific opportunities. Recent drop in LINE a classic case, though not without some risk.
right now looking to capitalize on USD strength to pick up assets denominated in harder money. Not doing it yet, in search stage. Hoping USDCAD continues its rise against a decade of decline so can pick up more good CAD income stocks.
If you haven't considered diversifying assets by currency exposure as well as asset and sector class, consider it, especially for income stocks so you get some currency diversified passive income. The book up in the left margin a good guide to that - can view chunks for free on amazon page via the Look Inside feature.
Still keeping a chunk of cash on side. Rather lose 5% opportunity per year and be ready to move when EU or ME or something creates a scare.
Lessons For This Week: Still Safe To Enter This Rally? - Part 2 [View article]
thanks for worthwhile comments. re: double BBs, no magic, just one of the few tools that has some real use when price at historical levels and have no support / resistance reference points
Coming Week Market Movers And Outlook For The Rest Of 2013 [View article]
Founder,
I do.
I'm not saying corrections fun, but that is what happens. You can choose to ride it out or set stop loses so that you're probably out of your position at a much smaller loss.
stop losses provide some imperfect protection (don't help much if your stock gaps below stop loss order).
there are pros and cons to setting tighter or looser stop losses. Tighter ones minimize loss but you'll risk spending more time and money monitoring when to get back in and on fees to just buy back something that dropped briefly. Looser ones avoid that but mean you leave more money on the table.
Your personal strategy will depend greatly on how much time you care to invest in monitoring investments, type of investments, etc.
For example, long term income investors holding steady dividend payers with dominant businesses have more reason to just ride out the fluctuations. Traders obviously take an opposite approach.
.... and yes, how you set stop loss would definitely be influenced by how volatile the stock is. For example a lot of good Canadian income stocks and MLPs have low daily trading volumes which can make them prone to volatile moves, so you need to set wide stops or risk getting stopped out for just a random drop
Weighing The Week Ahead: Are You Ready For Some Fedspeak? [View article]
Hi Jeff,the usual good work, keep it up! quick question. You wrote that among last week' bad news was:
• Household debt is lower - by 11.4% from the 2008 peak. Put another way, the U.S. consumer is reducing debt at the same time that overall consumption has been solid. See the details from Jeffry Bartash at MarketWatch.
How's this bad? deleveraging AND solid consumption? would expect one or the other but not both? sounds like best of both worlds?
if they do announce tapering USD to soar (and those who know me know I'm know USD fan long term) but this would be huge for USD, especially if EU forced to stay loose or ease further.
Excellent opportunity for USD based investors to at that point pick up assets linked to/denominated in/providing income stream in harder currencies. Not hard or any riskier than any other trading or investing if you know how. Search for the one book on safer, simpler ways to do it: The Sensible Guide To Forex. Full disclosure, I'm the author. see its amazon page for free excerpts, reviews , synopisis
Energy Transfer Partners: The Pieces Are Falling Into Place [View article]
"Given the significant increase in cash in 1Q13 shown in Table 6, unrestricted cash on hand at March 31, 2013 was $1.28 billion" -how do you get this figure? not obvious from table 6 unless I'm missing something
Use Linn Energy To Build Income Now [View article]
NB: a lot of confusion about MLPs in IRAs. Short version - given outperformance, not necessarily wrong at all.
biggest fear seems to be UBIT, but you need six-figure cost basis typically to incur UBIT tax. The UBIT exemption is $1k of UBIT income, and that's per account, so you can beat that with multiple IRAs.
other negatives are tax reporting and payment complexity, and 'wasted' tax deferral.
however, consider an avg low risk midstream pipeline operator paying ~5.5% vs. 100-200 bp less for comparable REITS and Utilities (never mind blue chips or bonds) and the yield justifies the added tax reporting headaches.
If you're a LINE believer, that yield is another ~200 bps higher, before considering yield growth
4 Scary Charts Warning Of The Next Financial Crisis [View article]
btw, on BOJ website FAQ page, when asked about default risk their answer is that bond repayments will be handled responsibly (not that they'll necessarily be paid, paid on time, in full, etc).
4 Scary Charts Warning Of The Next Financial Crisis [View article]
Good article
little new info re: Japan, but worth repeating
similar fate to JPY and Japan awaits others with same fundamental problems and inclination to rising debt and money printing.
Key point: those holding JPY, (also USD, EUR, GBP among others need to diversify their assets by currency exposure just as they diversify by asset and sector class. Need not be complex.
For only book extant on safer, simpler ways to get that currency diversified portfolio, either for traders or income investors, search The Sensible Guide to Forex - winner of FXStreet.com' s Best forex book for 2013. Disclosure: I'm the author. You can view parts free on its amazon page, just use the title as search term.
Cramer's 'Best Of Breed' Energy MLP Plays [View article]
Still, no knock against author, was worth knowing what Cramer's feeding the masses.
Like most of market tho, these at/near highs.
More useful article would if had compelling arguments for best undervalued MLPS (some good ones recently on LINE, for example, tho LINE has more commodity risk as a more upstream player). Or perhaps SPH, which looks like has great yield and distribution coverage, tho has risk factors. see Ron Hiram's recent look at it. Also at highs tho, like most of the leading MLPs except for LINE due to the controversy over safety of distribution. David White and a few others seem to have made a compelling case in favor of LINE, especially for the longer term.
8.7% Dividend Payer Linn Energy Was Dissed At Ira Sohn - Is There Reason To Worry? [View article]
key point here as with other articles on the whole LINE debate is really only about WHEN to get in - go long now or short in near term. Otherwise its all about the safety and growth of the distribution.
Ultimately, bets on LINE based on how one feels about energy in short and long term.
if see weakness in coming years, then sentiment on LINE depends on how much you trust BERY acquisition to help out and mgmt to weather the turbulence.
if you're bullish energy in long term, and a long term investor, only debate is when and how to get in. LINE a very good way to be long energy. Pays you well while you wait for prices to pick up, big enough to minimize commodity risk, even if that size limits % growth.
Kudos to author for all to rare reference to the very real market risks out there for all stock prices. Agreed that staged entry wise. Note that given LINE's high yield, opportunity cost of waiting is higher.
Wait a year and you've missed half or more of anticipated pullback - assuming you catch it right.
I'm no huge bull, but as I argued here (http://bit.ly/119dKp3 ) plenty of reasons stocks can at least hold ground if not rise - the weak fundamentals that threaten the rally have been around for years, QE has won thus far.
That said, EU could indeed whack markets for a correction beyond the 10-15%, so worth keeping some cash on sidelines with limit orders of some sort (or sell puts on LINE) in place at selected support levels - hard to buy when fear hits, so best to make buy decision in advance.
NB: note that while LINE is an upstream MLP and thus has more commodity risk, the character of MLP revenue can change. The more stable midstream MLPs can and do at times buy assets with more commodity and volume exposure, which adds risk/reward potential. Similarly, upstream firms like LINE can choose to add lower risk midstream assets - an option with the larger players like LINE.
I've got 25 years in the business and sometimes I can't figure out what's going on with a $2T bank balance sheet, says Mike Mayo at the JPMorgan (JPM +1.1%) annual meeting. What about your risk committee gives it the experience to do the proper job, he asks Jamie Dimon. Passing on a chance to respond with a zinger (that's why you're an analyst, not banker), Dimon notes it's the same committee that helped steer the bank before and during the financial crisis. [View news story]
All gets down to how good is your hedging and how solid is your counter-party/insurer if you and others win a big bet against it -- all of them at the same time (which is what happens in crisis times)
Lessons For This Week: Still Safe To Enter This Rally? - Part 2 [View article]
thx for kind remarks
fair enough - crystal ball currently being repaired
actually all I thought I was saying is that I wouldn't bet against it meaning even though the fundamental case (beyond its being propped up by QE) is weak, you don't want to go short against this kind of momentum - that was my chief message, sorry if wasn't clearer.
My hometown of Jerusalem famous for prophets, don't have the knack for it, sadly.
I don't know how much farther it will continue to rise. Momentum suggests rally not done
Lessons For This Week: Still Safe To Enter This Rally? - Part 2 [View article]
Though with most income stocks still paying relatively low yields, not huge opportunity cost.
That said, once S&P 500 broke through decade old resistance, have to recognize that strength and consider some cautious buying, small positions, at least with some good divvy stocks that will keep paying regardless. Also keep stop losses in place so losses from pullback at acceptable levels. Occasionally get some dips on specific opportunities. Recent drop in LINE a classic case, though not without some risk.
right now looking to capitalize on USD strength to pick up assets denominated in harder money. Not doing it yet, in search stage. Hoping USDCAD continues its rise against a decade of decline so can pick up more good CAD income stocks.
If you haven't considered diversifying assets by currency exposure as well as asset and sector class, consider it, especially for income stocks so you get some currency diversified passive income. The book up in the left margin a good guide to that - can view chunks for free on amazon page via the Look Inside feature.
Still keeping a chunk of cash on side. Rather lose 5% opportunity per year and be ready to move when EU or ME or something creates a scare.
Lessons For This Week: Still Safe To Enter This Rally? - Part 2 [View article]
re: double BBs, no magic, just one of the few tools that has some real use when price at historical levels and have no support / resistance reference points
Coming Week Market Movers And Outlook For The Rest Of 2013 [View article]
I do.
I'm not saying corrections fun, but that is what happens. You can choose to ride it out or set stop loses so that you're probably out of your position at a much smaller loss.
stop losses provide some imperfect protection (don't help much if your stock gaps below stop loss order).
there are pros and cons to setting tighter or looser stop losses. Tighter ones minimize loss but you'll risk spending more time and money monitoring when to get back in and on fees to just buy back something that dropped briefly. Looser ones avoid that but mean you leave more money on the table.
Your personal strategy will depend greatly on how much time you care to invest in monitoring investments, type of investments, etc.
For example, long term income investors holding steady dividend payers with dominant businesses have more reason to just ride out the fluctuations. Traders obviously take an opposite approach.
.... and yes, how you set stop loss would definitely be influenced by how volatile the stock is. For example a lot of good Canadian income stocks and MLPs have low daily trading volumes which can make them prone to volatile moves, so you need to set wide stops or risk getting stopped out for just a random drop
Weighing The Week Ahead: Are You Ready For Some Fedspeak? [View article]
Hi Jeff,the usual good work, keep it up! quick question. You wrote that among last week' bad news was:
• Household debt is lower - by 11.4% from the 2008 peak. Put another way, the U.S. consumer is reducing debt at the same time that overall consumption has been solid. See the details from Jeffry Bartash at MarketWatch.
How's this bad? deleveraging AND solid consumption? would expect one or the other but not both? sounds like best of both worlds?
Is A QE Exit Really Scary? [View article]
Excellent opportunity for USD based investors to at that point pick up assets linked to/denominated in/providing income stream in harder currencies. Not hard or any riskier than any other trading or investing if you know how. Search for the one book on safer, simpler ways to do it: The Sensible Guide To Forex. Full disclosure, I'm the author. see its amazon page for free excerpts, reviews , synopisis
Energy Transfer Partners: The Pieces Are Falling Into Place [View article]
"Given the significant increase in cash in 1Q13 shown in Table 6, unrestricted cash on hand at March 31, 2013 was $1.28 billion" -how do you get this figure? not obvious from table 6 unless I'm missing something
Is Atlantic Power A Safe Investment? [View article]
Use Linn Energy To Build Income Now [View article]
biggest fear seems to be UBIT, but you need six-figure cost basis typically to incur UBIT tax. The UBIT exemption is $1k of UBIT income, and that's per account, so you can beat that with multiple IRAs.
other negatives are tax reporting and payment complexity, and 'wasted' tax deferral.
however, consider an avg low risk midstream pipeline operator paying ~5.5% vs. 100-200 bp less for comparable REITS and Utilities (never mind blue chips or bonds) and the yield justifies the added tax reporting headaches.
If you're a LINE believer, that yield is another ~200 bps higher, before considering yield growth
4 Scary Charts Warning Of The Next Financial Crisis [View article]
4 Scary Charts Warning Of The Next Financial Crisis [View article]
little new info re: Japan, but worth repeating
similar fate to JPY and Japan awaits others with same fundamental problems and inclination to rising debt and money printing.
Key point: those holding JPY, (also USD, EUR, GBP among others need to diversify their assets by currency exposure just as they diversify by asset and sector class. Need not be complex.
For only book extant on safer, simpler ways to get that currency diversified portfolio, either for traders or income investors, search The Sensible Guide to Forex - winner of FXStreet.com' s Best forex book for 2013. Disclosure: I'm the author. You can view parts free on its amazon page, just use the title as search term.
Atlantic Power Management Discusses Q1 2013 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]