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Cliff Wachtel  

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  • A Quick Explanation Of The Recent Volatility Of Silver And Gold And Their Likely Direction [View article]
    Frank,
    Agreed, on intraday basis, price fluctuations often unconnected to any news items such as the above.
    I don’t recommend short term trading (particularly beginner traders) without full preparation and risk management skills, which I lay out in detail in my book, The Sensible Guide To Forex.
    Even though most fail at it, a great many beginning traders insist on jumping into short term trading for a variety of reasons.
    I was asked to write a very simple trade analysis and trade idea for beginner day traders, so while I was at it I just put this out there for those interested.
    In retrospect, for the version published here on SA (a more sensible audience), probably should have added more of a warning about the risks of “simple” short term trading strategies for beginners who lack the required analytical and risk management skills.
    May 4, 2015. 09:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold's Likely Direction And How To Profit In The Days Ahead [View article]
    Thx for feedback

    My bad. Was asked to do something for gold day traders who are new and need something very simple, and thought I'd put it up here for whoever might be interested.

    Should have made this clearer to the more sophisticated SA crowd who (quite correctly IMHO) would not attempt this kind of trade.
    Apr 28, 2015. 11:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold's Likely Direction And How To Profit In The Days Ahead [View article]
    Thx for feedback

    My bad. Was asked to do something for gold day traders who are new and need something very simple, and thought I'd put it up here for whoever might be interested.

    Should have made this clearer to the more sophisticated SA crowd who (quite correctly IMHO) would not attempt this kind of trade.
    Apr 28, 2015. 11:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Blackstone Mortgage Trust doubles size with GE purchase [View news story]
    my first question too.
    Apr 12, 2015. 09:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Blackstone Mortgage Trust doubles size with GE purchase [View news story]
    my first question too.
    Apr 12, 2015. 09:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Scarcity And Oversupply: The Intriguing Market Dynamics Between EUR:USD, Bunds And Oil [View article]
    interesting post
    curious to hear how author would integrate fears of EU crisis into EUR weakness explanation. The only EURUSD the author mentions is the consensus that the Fed will have relatively tighter monetary policy than that of the the ECB.

    Granted, that's all most of the forex press focuses on too, but the EU crisis in hibernation - that's all. Nothing solved.

    Greece may or may not get yet another round of extend/pretend financing, but in the end cannot repay.
    Meanwhile EU has problem making concessions to Greece. Even though it could afford to do so in EUR terms, it can't show leniency because any breaks Greece gets will be expected by others particularly much larger debtors like Spain and Italy.
    Unresolved EU crisis, likely to end in some kind of fundamental change in Euro-zone if not breakup, undermines long term confidence in EUR and makes any longer term sustained uptrend difficult w/out some really bad USD news (like new US QE).
    It won't be hard for the Fed to be 'relatively' tight compared to EUR as long as ECB has no choice but to keep printing money.

    Unclear how much of that worry is priced in.
    Apr 8, 2015. 06:46 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Correction Looming? [View article]
    bbro:
    have any recommended sources for moving averages of NFPs? St. Louis fed has 4 week moving avg for weekly new jobless claims, but haven't found charts wit moving averages, etc for NFP figures. Have you?
    Apr 5, 2015. 06:54 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Future Of Seeking Alpha, From One Contributor's Perspective [View article]
    they only appear for 30 days then gone again, so if you're ever researching a stock those articles basically unavailable.

    Amazed they ask $8k for that svc.
    Mar 26, 2015. 11:28 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Enterprise Product Partners, Yielding Almost 5%, Looks Attractive [View article]
    fundamentals sound but chart is weak and clearly following sentiment that capex and ultimately divvy growth will suffer if oil price decline is prolonged.

    It is on the verge of breaking yet another key support level, long term momentum is firmly downward. Remember we may base our thesis on fundamentals, but it's foolish to ignore technical indicators, especially longer term ones, when planning entries and exits.

    bottom line, if you're looking to buy at the bottom, we don't have technical or fundamental evidence of bottoming yet. If you don't mind taking some loss on a partial position, ok.


    Still can get equal or better yields from other big caps companies that don't have all the oil price uncertainty, (think big telecoms, healthcare REITS, etc).

    Definitely should be on any income investors watch list as it is one of the best long term income plays for safety yield and divvy growth, so watch for signs of oil bottoming, unfortunately no one seems to know how long.

    Side note: very interesting article on businessinsider.com about real reason OPEC won't cut production - Iran and Russia refused to do so. If so, then in theory we could see a sudden bottoming or spike if we get a sudden announcement that these renegades realize that it's time to coordinate w/ OPEC - if in fact either of them can afford to do so, given that both have oil dependent economies,
    or if in fact they care about their long term economic interests, as both appear to give higher priority to funding various evil schemes,
    (global terror for Iran, 'conquer thy neighbor' policy in Russia) than to their own people's welfare - not uncommon for oppressive police states.

    Disclosure: is my largest single holding, tho bought mostly in ~2006-8 in addition to shares converted to EPD when they bought another older core holding of mine, TEPPCO (the mlp, not the Japanese power co)
    Mar 18, 2015. 08:36 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Medallion Financial Short-Sellers Continue Misdirection Campaign - Ignore It [View article]
    Larry,
    Great article as always, but please stop with the facts already.
    Very hard to find blatantly undervalued stock w/ such reliably steady and high yld, hoping to pick up more on dips
    ---and you're messing with my plans!
    ever heard of keeping a good thing quiet?
    Mar 5, 2015. 08:20 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yields heading south, but nobody wants REITs [View news story]
    big question here is this:
    with low/negative bond rates in EU, Japan, is there enough foreign money coming in to support REITS and other equities that are serving as bond equivalents. If so, REITS stay high, waiting for better price will require patience and accepting only minor dips.
    Feb 25, 2015. 11:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yields heading south, but nobody wants REITs [View news story]
    @cpalamara13
    there is demand, only question is at what price. Most good ones near all time highs, enough threats out there for investors to suspect dip w/in coming year. Heck, if only missing a ~4% yield, not a huge opportunity cost for the chance to pick up at 5-15% cheaper via a limit order.
    Feb 25, 2015. 11:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yields heading south, but nobody wants REITs [View news story]
    I'd amend that to say no MATERIAL rate rise.
    Fed still likely to at least want appearance of returning to normal and make token 25-50 bps / year if for no other reason than to give themselves some ammo in case economy tanks.

    Even symbolic raise w/b big change in expectations, so might produce short term drop in the above equities.
    Feb 25, 2015. 11:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • EuroGroup - Money For Nothing And Your Debt For Free? [View article]
    I knew author was one of best on EU mess from past articles
    Now I know he's creative too - that title is truly inspired, one of best I've seen since Inflation Trader's "Shock And Awwww".

    Great Dire Straits Ref.
    Feb 25, 2015. 08:31 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Johnson & Johnson: Down 10% Since Earnings, This Slow-And-Steady Dividend Gem Is A Steal [View article]
    Good long term hold but entry still hardly attractive. Valuation is never that great with such a high-visibility consensus conservative/defensive widows and orphans investment (especially as these are so in fashion now).

    Divvy low, so this is more of capital gains play with enough income to at least cover your opportunity cost vs. t-notes or other instruments. As long as all central banks keeping rates low (I include Fed, hikes likely to be token 25-50 bps per year at most, not even sure we'll see that w/out some counter - easing measures)

    Technical picture also does not suggest a bottoming yet.

    Note that since July '14 virtually all above average volume days were on down days ie volume suggests smart money sellers ,dumb money buyers. Remember, price confirms volume, volume confirms price. Consistently higher volume on down days >> those days are more representative, as the double top & 2 slides below 200 day moving avg confirm.

    That said, low central bank rates are VERY supportive of conservative, defensive stocks that offer at least SOME income, so don't see huge downside barring big negative surprise like EU contagion or big Fed hike.

    Still, if you want a defensive health care or consumer play, can do much better for income and div growth w/ certain health care REITS or other defensive consumer products stocks.

    Doesn't take a genius to be long JNJ, trick is not to chase it. 4- month downtrend + above signs of weakness suggest better entry pts ahead for the patient.
    Feb 23, 2015. 01:16 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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