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Cliff Wachtel  

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  • Why You Shouldn't Put Too Much Weight On Dividends [View article]
    Odd title unless it's goal was to attract attention by intentionally being silly by seemingly proposing a grossly oversimplified investing model.

    If so, the headline succeeded brilliantly, as proven my the large # of reads and comments. ie if goal was to attract attention, it succeeded.

    If goal was to attract attention with a sound argument in favor of a certain investment thesis.... it didn't

    Obviously one's emphasis on income vs. growth, or current yield vs. divvy growth, depends on personal investing goals.

    Obviously an intelligent income investors will weigh yield among a number of factors that they believe will predict yield over a given estimated holding period relevant to their goals.

    Obviously intelligent capital gains oriented investors will have to consider market risk that could kill gains even on strongly performing companies.
    May 20, 2015. 10:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly Capital: Should You Be Worried Now That The Stock Has Fallen Below $10 Again? [View article]



    Fed Chair Yellen said equity valuations are quite high (which would be consistent with a view to raise rates) and talked about how she expects long term rates to jump once liftoff occurs

    NLY should prosper at that point, as it borrows at lower ST rates and lends at higher LT rates.

    Granted, all depends on if gap btwn ST and LT rates widens, and WHEN (if at all) that lift off occurs - my take is that any rate increases will be virtually token 25 bps and very slow.

    Got in btwn 11-12, so can be patient as long as keep position size low.

    there are better hi yld plays out there, though keeping a small mreit position, (still bear the scars of Thornburg - anyone remember that mess?)

    looking at expanding my already large TAXI holding, as all the worry about UBER etc seems to be having little effect, as I expected it would. Taxi medallion prices can fall w/out hurting this co. and taxi medallion loans only 20% of the business, so really think market is overestimating ride share damage to it.

    meanwhile the company keeps performing beautifully.
    May 7, 2015. 12:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly Capital: Should You Be Worried Now That The Stock Has Fallen Below $10 Again? [View article]



    Fed Chair Yellen said equity valuations are quite high (which would be consistent with a view to raise rates) and talked about how she expects long term rates to jump once liftoff occurs

    NLY should prosper at that point, as it borrows at lower ST rates and lends at higher LT rates.

    Granted, all depends on if gap btwn ST and LT rates widens, and WHEN (if at all) that lift off occurs - my take is that any rate increases will be virtually token 25 bps and very slow.

    Got in btwn 11-12, so can be patient as long as keep position size low.

    there are better hi yld plays out there, though keeping a small mreit position, (still bear the scars of Thornburg - anyone remember that mess?)

    looking at expanding my already large TAXI holding, as all the worry about UBER etc seems to be having little effect, as I expected it would. Taxi medallion prices can fall w/out hurting this co. and taxi medallion loans only 20% of the business, so really think market is overestimating ride share damage to it.

    meanwhile the company keeps performing beautifully.
    May 7, 2015. 12:07 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold: Short-Term Outlook, Long-Term Drivers And Bullish Greek Default Threat [View article]
    Until EU leaders believe there's no #contagion threat from #Greece #default/exit, they're likely to continue with some variation of "extend and pretend" ie push off day of reckoning with some combination of extended deadlines, additional loans etc.

    They can't just forgive Greece (even though it can't repay bonds) because then Spain, Italy will want same treatment, and they're "too big to bail" out.

    The big question is thus when the secret plans for handling that default are ready to put into action. EU leaders not stupid, so obviously are working on such plans (have been some isolated leaks from Germany) but it's equally obvious that they CANNOT publicly even admit that such plans exist or are under serious consideration.

    Do not take the prolonged calm in the EU as a sign of solution.
    There have been NO meaningful reforms - banking union an underfunded joke that can't act quickly, ECB backstop of questionable value, nothing like the Fed (imagine needing to get 50 state's approval before Fed could act? In a real financial crisis they'll have maybe 24-48 hours).

    Wrote about this back in December-January of 2013-14. Also predicted ECB would in the end do some kind of QE despite German objections - no choice.

    Financial reality can be deferred, but not denied. The only question is how long.

    Next bout of EU angst should give gold a boost, duration of which will depend on how soon markets can be calmed.
    May 7, 2015. 08:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Quick Explanation Of The Recent Volatility Of Silver And Gold And Their Likely Direction [View article]
    Frank,
    Agreed, on intraday basis, price fluctuations often unconnected to any news items such as the above.
    I don’t recommend short term trading (particularly beginner traders) without full preparation and risk management skills, which I lay out in detail in my book, The Sensible Guide To Forex.
    Even though most fail at it, a great many beginning traders insist on jumping into short term trading for a variety of reasons.
    I was asked to write a very simple trade analysis and trade idea for beginner day traders, so while I was at it I just put this out there for those interested.
    In retrospect, for the version published here on SA (a more sensible audience), probably should have added more of a warning about the risks of “simple” short term trading strategies for beginners who lack the required analytical and risk management skills.
    May 4, 2015. 09:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold's Likely Direction And How To Profit In The Days Ahead [View article]
    Thx for feedback

    My bad. Was asked to do something for gold day traders who are new and need something very simple, and thought I'd put it up here for whoever might be interested.

    Should have made this clearer to the more sophisticated SA crowd who (quite correctly IMHO) would not attempt this kind of trade.
    Apr 28, 2015. 11:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold's Likely Direction And How To Profit In The Days Ahead [View article]
    Thx for feedback

    My bad. Was asked to do something for gold day traders who are new and need something very simple, and thought I'd put it up here for whoever might be interested.

    Should have made this clearer to the more sophisticated SA crowd who (quite correctly IMHO) would not attempt this kind of trade.
    Apr 28, 2015. 11:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Blackstone Mortgage Trust doubles size with GE purchase [View news story]
    my first question too.
    Apr 12, 2015. 09:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Blackstone Mortgage Trust doubles size with GE purchase [View news story]
    my first question too.
    Apr 12, 2015. 09:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Scarcity And Oversupply: The Intriguing Market Dynamics Between EUR:USD, Bunds And Oil [View article]
    interesting post
    curious to hear how author would integrate fears of EU crisis into EUR weakness explanation. The only EURUSD the author mentions is the consensus that the Fed will have relatively tighter monetary policy than that of the the ECB.

    Granted, that's all most of the forex press focuses on too, but the EU crisis in hibernation - that's all. Nothing solved.

    Greece may or may not get yet another round of extend/pretend financing, but in the end cannot repay.
    Meanwhile EU has problem making concessions to Greece. Even though it could afford to do so in EUR terms, it can't show leniency because any breaks Greece gets will be expected by others particularly much larger debtors like Spain and Italy.
    Unresolved EU crisis, likely to end in some kind of fundamental change in Euro-zone if not breakup, undermines long term confidence in EUR and makes any longer term sustained uptrend difficult w/out some really bad USD news (like new US QE).
    It won't be hard for the Fed to be 'relatively' tight compared to EUR as long as ECB has no choice but to keep printing money.

    Unclear how much of that worry is priced in.
    Apr 8, 2015. 06:46 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Correction Looming? [View article]
    bbro:
    have any recommended sources for moving averages of NFPs? St. Louis fed has 4 week moving avg for weekly new jobless claims, but haven't found charts wit moving averages, etc for NFP figures. Have you?
    Apr 5, 2015. 06:54 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Future Of Seeking Alpha, From One Contributor's Perspective [View article]
    they only appear for 30 days then gone again, so if you're ever researching a stock those articles basically unavailable.

    Amazed they ask $8k for that svc.
    Mar 26, 2015. 11:28 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Enterprise Product Partners, Yielding Almost 5%, Looks Attractive [View article]
    fundamentals sound but chart is weak and clearly following sentiment that capex and ultimately divvy growth will suffer if oil price decline is prolonged.

    It is on the verge of breaking yet another key support level, long term momentum is firmly downward. Remember we may base our thesis on fundamentals, but it's foolish to ignore technical indicators, especially longer term ones, when planning entries and exits.

    bottom line, if you're looking to buy at the bottom, we don't have technical or fundamental evidence of bottoming yet. If you don't mind taking some loss on a partial position, ok.


    Still can get equal or better yields from other big caps companies that don't have all the oil price uncertainty, (think big telecoms, healthcare REITS, etc).

    Definitely should be on any income investors watch list as it is one of the best long term income plays for safety yield and divvy growth, so watch for signs of oil bottoming, unfortunately no one seems to know how long.

    Side note: very interesting article on businessinsider.com about real reason OPEC won't cut production - Iran and Russia refused to do so. If so, then in theory we could see a sudden bottoming or spike if we get a sudden announcement that these renegades realize that it's time to coordinate w/ OPEC - if in fact either of them can afford to do so, given that both have oil dependent economies,
    or if in fact they care about their long term economic interests, as both appear to give higher priority to funding various evil schemes,
    (global terror for Iran, 'conquer thy neighbor' policy in Russia) than to their own people's welfare - not uncommon for oppressive police states.

    Disclosure: is my largest single holding, tho bought mostly in ~2006-8 in addition to shares converted to EPD when they bought another older core holding of mine, TEPPCO (the mlp, not the Japanese power co)
    Mar 18, 2015. 08:36 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Medallion Financial Short-Sellers Continue Misdirection Campaign - Ignore It [View article]
    Larry,
    Great article as always, but please stop with the facts already.
    Very hard to find blatantly undervalued stock w/ such reliably steady and high yld, hoping to pick up more on dips
    ---and you're messing with my plans!
    ever heard of keeping a good thing quiet?
    Mar 5, 2015. 08:20 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yields heading south, but nobody wants REITs [View news story]
    big question here is this:
    with low/negative bond rates in EU, Japan, is there enough foreign money coming in to support REITS and other equities that are serving as bond equivalents. If so, REITS stay high, waiting for better price will require patience and accepting only minor dips.
    Feb 25, 2015. 11:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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