Seeking Alpha

Cliff Wachtel

View as an RSS Feed
View Cliff Wachtel's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • This Week's Top Market Movers, Lessons: Data Versus Ukraine [View article]
    Good point. Common wisdom is that GFC has already forced firms to cut what they could so that most of marginal benefits from cost cutting exhausted. Obviously would vary in some cases as changes in business conditions or technology open up new venues for cost savings (case in point -Kinder-Morgan reorganization )
    Aug 19 09:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's The Alarming Table Kinder Morgan Doesn't Want You To See [View article]
    Would like to thank hedgeye for providing excellent long entry points in the months leading up to KMI merger that allowed us to augment holdings. More than made up for the caution selling I did on LINN, which was the lesson to buy your manufactured dips in the future once the stock stabilizes. The lesson served us well on KMP, etc, and really helped with the kids' college funds.

    Not easy to find good income values these days, but thanks to your efforts, was able to find a pocket of value.
    Aug 13 09:55 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Characteristics Of High-Return Stocks [View article]
    of course none of those criteria help in bear mkt, as most stocks rise/fall with the indexes, but worth noting during bull markets
    Aug 8 09:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Great Book Value Gain In Q2 2014 By Annaly Capital May Put It In Line For Stock Gains [View article]
    the whole NLY bet depends upon rates staying lower for longer than market expects, and also stocks as a group not diving (NLY will dive with them, as most stocks follow indexes)

    That said, the stock remains at the bottom of 5 year range, pays us handsomely to wait, even if mgmt blows rate forecasts and needs cut divvy yet again.

    as we've noted in recent articles, if Fed has its way, rates stay very low for years to come, albeit with symbolic hikes (like 25 bps / year) just to say they take the USD's value sort of serioiusly.

    A bluff to be sure, however:
    unclear how well fed can contain rates
    markets likely to sell off interest rate sensitive stocks like NLY when first hikes come (ETA late 2014 - late 2015) so those will likely be the next good entry points.

    Meanwhile 10%+ yld makes the wait tolerable and worth a bit of risk capital allocated.
    Aug 8 09:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Atlantic Power A Good Investment? [View article]
    Again, mgmt has record of manipulating data, failing to play straight with investors. Ultimately you have no idea what you're getting if can't trust the data mgmt puts out.
    Aug 8 09:09 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Dividends Don't Matter In Retirement; A Few Examples [View article]
    A decent, typical article you'd see in a mature bull market.
    Remember however, that most stocks move with the indexes, so when the bear phase comes, these drop too. A decent divvy at least allows you to hold and still earn.

    Even 'growth' stocks drop when indexes are falling.
    Btw, 2% divvy won't even keep up with real inflation, would need a lot of divvy growth for a long time for that divvy to ultimately be a meaningful income.

    Which will give higher income over the next 5 years?
    -- 2% divvy yld growing 10% per year
    -- 7% not growing at all
    Aug 8 02:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Atlantic Power A Good Investment? [View article]
    Author apparently lacks experience with AT. Mgmt quite intentionally failed sufficiently warn investors about what it knew was a drastic coming drop in performance due to expiring power supply contracts.

    Same CEO in place. The fish rots from the head first...

    Mgmt cannot be trusted. If can't trust to fully disclose material info, why would any prudent investor bother with them?

    I was among first SA writers to cover them back in '09 very positively Had a great ride, but mgmt failed shareholders when they needed full disclosure.

    If can't trust them to disclose material risks, too risky to bother with IMHO.
    Aug 7 12:39 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An End To Our Relationship With Yahoo, A New Era For Equity Research [View article]
    More Yahoo's loss, as it will lose some of SA's very juicy demographic. A bit of loss for SA readers, I often first saw an intruiging SA post on Yahoo. As a contributor, any loss of exposure hurts (Psst, Eli, David, that said, to compensate, how about bringing back the left hand margin space where we contributors can do a little promo of books, blogs, etc without readers needing to go to our profiles?) Consider

    No doubt SA will survive this and move on - has much smarter mgmt IMHO.
    Aug 1 09:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An End To Our Relationship With Yahoo, A New Era For Equity Research [View article]
    MF has no choice. Contributor quality not great, articles rarely useful, just glorified advts to draw one elsewhere.
    Jul 31 02:50 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Things To Like About Atlantic Power Corporation [View article]
    if same mgmt in place wouldn't touch it - they were not upfront with shareholders, can't be expected to be honest in future.

    I speak as perhaps the first writer on SA back in ~2009 to recommend AT as great USD hedged income play (you got paid in CAD, much better currency so you got protection from USD travails and currency appreciation as an extra bonus). Bought in around $5, watched it rise, sold at stages of the decline.

    That's why we pay attn to technical analysis and trends - especially on low liquidity stocks like this one - insiders can't hide the affects of their selling as price trends lower, we have a clue that something is not right even before we actually know why.

    As I discuss in my book, once we see 8-15% drop, unless we have a clear understanding about why it's dropping (like Hedge Eye fund hatchet job to generate shorting profits as was tried on LINN and KMP) we cut back or exit, ESPECIALLY in low volume stocks where insider large volume selling, even in stages in an attempt to be discreet, shows up quickly as an unexplained but persistent downtrend.

    Granted, golden cross is tempting if yld is ok, if want take a risk on mgmt pulling same obfuscations again.
    Jun 27 03:53 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Annaly Is In My Retirement Portfolio [View article]
    Good post

    NLY less risky than thought if in fact Fed has its way. As I wrote in detail a few weeks back here on SA, many signals fed wants 10 year T-note under 4% until 2020-ish, (including 'leaked' messages from Bernanke's $250k intimate gatherings w/ assorted masters of the universe).

    Suspect Fed indeed starts raising rates in mid 2015 at latest, but in annual 25 bps increments as long as inflation stays low and recovery slow. That's just fine for NLY, which can cope w/ rising rates as long as they rise slowly and don't mess up their hedging. As long as no further material divvy cuts, let price do what it will.
    Be happy w/ steady hi yld.

    if Fed succeeds in convincing markets that rates to stay low, share price should rise as this is a good environment for it & yield seekers get seduced for lack of alternative and need for higher income to balance the pathetic yields of presumed safer stocks (though if Fed inflation target is 2% why hold 3-4% yielders for income?).

    Author correct though, need regard as a more aggressive income play with corresponding risk given risks if hedging goes awry and or Fed loses control over rates and they spike.

    Would avoid new longs until get confirmed break over 200 day MA, which would suggest stock has truly bottomed (as long as you're ok with investing in a market at new highs - but hey, as wrote last week, as long as we have low rates and no crisis risks, the pillars of the multi-year rally remain in place. Again, as long as divvy remains steady, can afford to sit through paper losses).
    Jun 12 02:25 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The ECB Stimulus Package: What Every Investor Must Know For Protection And Profit [View article]
    thanks for input
    I opt for simplicity
    re: book details to help you decide see amazon page:

    best, Cliff
    Jun 9 04:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan: Deconstructing The Pros And Cons [View article]
    justl looking for clarification.confirma... to see if I'm mistaken, actually, as I'm a bit rusty on the topic. thx
    May 27 01:36 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan: Deconstructing The Pros And Cons [View article]
    please clarify:
    KMI is a corporation and thus avoids tax complications associated with MLPs, right?

    Author writes that one of the cons of owning MLPs is: The investment offers little chance for capital appreciation based on the fact they trade more along the lines of bonds rather than stocks.


    -I thought MLPs valuation goes mostly according to the size and sustainability of their DCF, DCF coverage (or at least market perception of them, as Hedgeye attacks on some have shown).

    -Given rising prices of energy, rising cash flows, and paucity of decent returns, MLPs in fact were among the very best cap gains stories for most of the past 14 years.

    -While MLPs are at times seen as bond equivalents (see taper tantrum periods), other than their interest rate sensitivity I don't see how that comparison works.

    -their income is not fixed and for the good ones it tends to increase, as does their book value if the value of underlying assets grows (due to acquisitions or value of existing assets) faster than rate of share dilution from new offerings.

    thanks in advance for clarification
    May 27 12:34 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • UPS: Take Advantage Of Irrational Pricing [View article]
    good post
    EU exposure, especially Southern parts, is a potential risk, which markets in general way underestimate at this time
    Apr 28 09:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment