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Cliff Wachtel

 
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  • One Chart Shows How The EU's Own Banks Are A Fatal Threat 2014: Part 1 [View article]
    safety depends on issuer, there are many businesses that are much healthier than governments.

    Felix Salmon wrote a few months back how virtually all top rated sovereigns have high credit rating ONLY because it's assumed they can sell new bonds to pay off the old - otherwise they don't have the cash (unless they print) Non- EU nations have that option, at least for a while. EU nations don't.
    Jan 6, 2014. 01:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Coming 2014 Explosion: EU Money Supply Or EU Itself? [View article]
    the big difference is that Germany can delay or block the printing unless hit crisis and no other choice, then demand conditions, etc.

    US could decide to print quickly and calm markets - EU not only has internal opposition but also takes much longer to make decisions, could hurt them if need fast action
    Jan 6, 2014. 01:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Coming 2014 Explosion: EU Money Supply Or EU Itself? [View article]
    ECB considering another LTRO (cheap 3 year loans to banks), with added condition this time that banks MUST take that cash and lend it to pvt sector
    Jan 6, 2014. 01:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Coming 2014 Explosion: EU Money Supply Or EU Itself? [View article]
    One big diff btwn QE and OMT is that OMT requires recipient to accept a variety of politically unpalatable conditions designed to insure money is actually repaid. For example, EU auditors of banks - risks revealing all kinds of things Spain might not have wanted touched
    Jan 6, 2014. 01:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2014 Outlook: Annus Not-So-Horribilis [View article]
    Agreed, plan on using USD strength to diversify income investments into some non-USD income (CAD, NOK, SEK, etc) instruments, as opportunities permit. Plenty in CAD, harder to find in the smaller Nordic markets.

    Would consider CHF except that the SNB will continue trying to keep CHF from appreciating too much against EUR, so if EUR falls, and it will (see my posts in EU's latest failed attempt to progress on banking reforms) CHF could follow.
    Dec 25, 2013. 10:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Coming Week 7 Must Watch Likely Market Movers That Could Spoil The Holidays [View article]
    Both bill... and mickey make legit points, that said:

    bill: I call'em as I see 'em. Besides, plenty of cheerleaders already, so it's worth pointing out the risks. EU banking deal failure and risk from it remains waaaaay underestimated and under-reported, IMHO.

    I don't anticipate any big selloff in the near term either. As I mentioned in one of the other posts, the one on Lessons for the Coming Week, I note that the technical picture is firmly bullish and that my momentum indicators suggest that momentum is healthy.

    Fundys support that too hey, how often do we get growth AND a promise of dovish policy?

    That said, we don't know how quickly the market prices this all in, and also the Fed is moving towards tightening and higher rates. Credit markets will anticipate that (rates moving up again on Treasuries last I checked).

    I limit any new long positions to beaten down stocks with steady and high dividends at this point., so that I can afford to hold when some kind of normal pullback comes.

    Happy Holidays to All, Cliff
    Dec 24, 2013. 10:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Official: New EU Bank Reform Disastrous For EU, Euro, Everyone - 14 Reasons [View article]
    useful comment, honored to have you aboard as follower
    Dec 23, 2013. 10:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How The Fed Turned Taper Selloff Into A Rally: The Real Reasons And Lessons [View article]
    what did I miss?
    Dec 22, 2013. 09:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Is The Fed At A Crossroads? [View article]
    second that
    Dec 15, 2013. 07:03 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly And American: OK, How Do The Best Analysts Rate These Stocks? [View article]
    fyi, Jeff Gundlach is saying buy interest rate risk, http://seekingalpha.co...
    Dec 4, 2013. 09:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The World Just Got A Lot More Dangerous: Buy Oil Now [View article]
    GIO,

    Slight distinction you missed
    Only Iran openly threatens destruction of another nation.
    Nov 29, 2013. 04:07 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The World Just Got A Lot More Dangerous: Buy Oil Now [View article]
    excellent piece, so refreshing to read an author who actually has some understanding of the very dangerous Mideast and how US policy seemingly against its own interest. I say seemingly because I'm not sure what is endgame of Barack Hussein Obama in ME. Leave it at that.
    I don't think the agreement was out of sheer naivete.
    Nov 28, 2013. 03:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Caesarstone: 47% YoY U.S. Sales Growth Creates Stock Upside [View article]
    minor point to add: the product holds up very well as flooring and stairs surface
    Nov 28, 2013. 08:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Silly Sell-Off Of Memorial Production Partners [View article]
    origin and calculation of figures on dcf coverage ratio unclear, can you elaborate?
    61 mil. units x$2.2 dist =1, 342,000 total annual dist. how is that covered 1.2 times? where did 2.655 come from?
    thx
    Nov 26, 2013. 12:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2013 Outlook Year-End And Beyond: Part 4 - Summary, Conclusions, Must Watch Developments [View article]
    CLARIFICATION: If you were wondering why the last line in the post about learning from my mistakes wasn't followed by any mention of how to do so, a few lines that followed were cut by SA editors. Happens.

    In the original article (under news>special features at fxempire.com or thesensibleguidetofore... I then went on to gently suggest that one might consider reading my book (in the left margin above) or, for simpler and briefer intro to forex, take advantage of a new intro to forex video (and text) course out at FXAcademy.com that's based on parts of my book - free of charge for the time being.

    So if you were wondering what I was referring to about learning from my mistakes, that was it.
    Nov 26, 2013. 05:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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