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Cliff Wachtel  

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  • Economic Outlook For Rest Of 2014: Acceleration [View article]
    Good post, well written, thought out, as always.

    One big reservation thus far: the whole forecast seems to rest on whether author's timing of the consumer spending spike is correct - and that's not well supported (unless I missed something-possible -I give JK benefit of the doubt), and even if it were, timing fundamentals' effects on markets is notoriously treacherous. No consumer spending spike, then doubtful we get capex spending spike, faster GDP growth, fear of rate spike and concomitant volatility (taper tantrum II, etc).

    As a fan of the author, I'm working on a critique of this post, hope to have it out over the weekend, so details to follow. In any case a very useful, post that focuses us all on issues ahead for rest of 2014.

    James, keep up the good work!
    Apr 4, 2014. 10:43 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Rules For Using Double Bollinger® Bands To Avoid Buying At The Top [View instapost]
    excellent input
    indeed there are only a few types of indicators, and many variations on these few types.
    Never expect to catch the bounce just right, too many people trying to fool you on that, and big institutions have a large enough sample from their own books to gauge where the buy/sell orders are clustered.
    Many different ways to deal with that, all involve trade-off of risk and reward. See the the links to the full posts for full details.
    Mar 31, 2014. 03:31 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • EU Banking Pact Update: The EU's Latest Nail In Its Own Coffin [View article]
    Jens Nordvig, head of fixed income for Nomura, has a good book out, The Fall of the Euro - he argues a successful currency union needs a political union first, and popular support just isn't there for a US of Europe, so in the end it's doomed. Even EU elites, the biggest EU supporters, continue to resist ceding meaningful sovereignty or common access to national funds - as this banking union deal and every other EU deal shows. The trust isn't there, the sense of being one nation isn't there. Worth a look. As we go one with EU, think we'll see this theme at the heart of every failure to unify. So far no one has had to cede serious sovereignty or cash. If that time comes, we get some kind of break up.
    Mar 23, 2014. 04:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • At the close [View news story]
    what happened to the SA market close summary that comes out ~4:15pm? missed that.
    Mar 22, 2014. 01:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly: Buying The Dips Before The Company Announces The Next Dividend [View article]
    Weak recovery + dovish Fed + new cautious Chair = rates rise gradually, which is fine for NLY et. al. Possible her 'mixed message' was intentional, let a little speculative air out. 6 months a long time these days. Pre- September we were still in QE w/ no end in site.

    Good time to buy quality divvy stocks seen as rate sensitive and vulnerable to 'sudden rate increases' (that are unlikely to happen)

    NB: like most stocks NLY will move with overall markets
    Mar 20, 2014. 12:15 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ukraine Crisis Escalation - Winners, Losers And How To Profit [View article]
    indeed. My question w/ Uranium is whether we've really found ways to deal w/ waste safely. Granted, all energy extraction has environmental risk, but not my area of expertise.
    Mar 10, 2014. 03:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ukraine Crisis Escalation - Winners, Losers And How To Profit [View article]
    interesting background input, thx
    doubt West (read:US, not even thinking about Europe) has any appetite for more than sanctions, as I noted.
    Mar 10, 2014. 03:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ukraine Crisis Escalation - Winners, Losers And How To Profit [View article]
    suspect Ukrali comes back to cartel, is in their interest, Russia would want Ukrali back if Russia has influence
    Mar 10, 2014. 03:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vermilion Energy: A Compelling Combination Of Capital Appreciation And Yield [View article]
    one critical point I didn't see anyone mention: VET is an ideal Ukraine crisis play - a rare European-source gas provider w/ no exposure to Russia. Any escalation and move away from Russian sources - VET one of few domestic providers - AND ok income.

    Covered this one back in 2009-10 on my series on USD diversified income ( http://seekingalpha.co... ) - a highly recommended move given the USD's performance against virtually every major fx and hard asset (see: http://bit.ly/V4R7zU )

    BTW: didn't see anyone mention PBA, one of best Canada stocks out there for CAD income
    Mar 9, 2014. 01:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weekly Global Indexes Wrap: Daily Recap, Market Movers, Crimean Punishment? [View article]
    sounds good as long as we can define colonialism in a meaningful way.
    Only a part of Ukraine is Ukrainian. As Harilaos notes below, the real issue here is that Russia just went ahead and invaded, WITHOUT any legitimate self defense need - invasion and even occupation can at times be done in legitimate self defense
    But Russia just pulled another Afganistan-like "no, you're staying with us" move. Sets a bad precedent if West lets it go.
    Mar 9, 2014. 01:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weekly Global Indexes Wrap: Daily Recap, Market Movers, Crimean Punishment? [View article]
    "The main issue is that the militant way the Russians try to annex the area creates prerequisites for future war adventures, for example in Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. Therefore the American intervention was the only significant one to frame the Russian aggression. The European decision making mechanisms are difficult to organize; EU is a 28-member bloc that must take decisions unanimously."

    spot on
    Mar 9, 2014. 12:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weekly Global Indexes Wrap: Daily Recap, Market Movers, Crimean Punishment? [View article]
    "The main issue is that the militant way the Russians try to annex the area creates prerequisites for future war adventures, for example in Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. Therefore the American intervention was the only significant one to frame the Russian aggression. The European decision making mechanisms are difficult to organize; EU is a 28-member bloc that must take decisions unanimously."

    spot on
    Mar 9, 2014. 12:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weekly Global Indexes Wrap: Daily Recap, Market Movers, Crimean Punishment? [View article]
    hope to deal with that question in a coming post w/in next 24-48 hours
    Mar 9, 2014. 12:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Biggest Market Threat Of All? Does QE Trap Mean Taper Is Tightening? [View article]
    point of articles was taper & tightening results same- Like foreplay need not lead to sex, but mostly does-QE trap is why-can argue theoretical difference - which at times matters. For example QE was NOT inflationary because $ in bank reserves never circulated, velocity of money wasn't there.
    Feb 24, 2014. 12:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Separating Turnaround Stories From The Value Traps In The MLP Space [View article]
    useful but somewhat obvious general comments. How about just a bit more value, a few actual picks? Would make your closing call to action more compelling.
    Just saying.
    Feb 21, 2014. 05:56 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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