Open to constructive criticism (married 19+ years, 3 teenagers - a catch a fair bit of it....daily)
How is this a waste of time? While predictions can be an excercise in futility, identifying the forces to watch is quite possible and very productive as it focuses one's attention on what events to be watching for.
So, ideas for improvement? Let's hear 'em. thx, Cliff
Inflation: Why Markets Ignored the Fed Rate Hike [View article]
NB: do not confuse the Discount Rate(ST rate for loans from Fed to banks) with the Fed Funds rate (ST loans banks make to each other). Raising discount rate was almost a non-event, as markets reaction showed, because discount window rarely used. This was one small step up from just trying to jawbone the dollar higher.
It got attention because most people thought he'd raised the Fed Funds rate - THAT'S the real 'rate increase' that will send the USD higher and most everything else lower.
Nice symbolism, especially in contrast to the UK and ECB, which are looking even more dovish. At least the Fed is kinda/sorta moving in a tightening direction without actually doing much (nor will it unless jobs & spending show sustainable recovery, or bond markets tank and force rates higher so US can continue to weekly bond auctions.
A Quick Look at Euro Weakness Fallout [View article]
No EUR rally until EU debt mess resolved or worse likely case already passes - so far, EU debt crisis deteriorates as debtors lack political will to accept austerity spending cuts and likely EU rescuers lack political will to accept costs of bailouts or other rescues.
At best, EUR at some point bottoms, though if Lehman Bros crash alone was enough to freeze over credit markets,crash stocks, imagine what an EU default will do. Did I say default? Meant defaultS. Once Greece or another goes, none of the rest of the weaker economies aka PIIGS + other Eastern European weak economies will be able to sell bonds at rates they can afford, effectively setting off a wave of EU defaults as soon as each has a maturing bond to pay off and needs to sell bonds to do so.
Pay Attention to the Pain of Greece and Spain [View article]
Great piece that addresses the heart of the problem of predicting the outcome in the EU, depends on politics. So far, no political will demonstrated by either debtors or their likely creditors to take the pain of austerity or bailout funding. Maybe a last minute look over the precipice will induce sanity, maybe not. Once just one of them defaults, the rest are likely to find borrowing costs go too high to take, sending the rest into de facto default. Perhaps that's why Greece and Portugal have a slight chance of bailout - Italy and Spain simply have too much debt to bail out.
But if this thing isn't resolved, hard to see how we avoid another credit seize up and crash. After all, if Lehman alone could do it in the fall of 2008..... Yes, things have changed. Governments have already spend a lot of their bullets.
Also hard to see how most if not all soveriegn bonds with deficit issues will avoid seeing borrowing costs rise if PIIGS default
How to Identify the End of the Downtrend [View article]
Yeah, really, thought I was writing about how the recent reaction bounce was nothing more than that, multi-week view still down for most markets until we see some of mentioned signs.
Guess global warming IS a good topic for getting comments going.
In view of my beloved readers apparently wanting some diversion from the above topic, I'll toss in another of the subject comment that generally gets a lot of people excited:(this ought to be fun)
Proposed: Israel has the right to pursue enemies at home and abroad seeking its destruction or endangering its citizens (just like every other major power has done in times of war, cold or otherwise). Discuss pros and cons.
Global Markets Outlook: Key Risk Assets Approaching Multi-Month Resistance Levels [View article]
Global Markets Outlook: Key Risk Assets Approaching Multi-Month Resistance Levels [View article]
Global Markets Outlook: Key Risk Assets Approaching Multi-Month Resistance Levels [View article]
Open to constructive criticism (married 19+ years, 3 teenagers - a catch a fair bit of it....daily)
How is this a waste of time? While predictions can be an excercise in futility, identifying the forces to watch is quite possible and very productive as it focuses one's attention on what events to be watching for.
So, ideas for improvement? Let's hear 'em. thx, Cliff
Global Markets Outlook: Key Risk Assets Approaching Multi-Month Resistance Levels [View article]
Global Markets Outlook: Key Risk Assets Approaching Multi-Month Resistance Levels [View article]
Global Markets Outlook: Key Risk Assets Approaching Multi-Month Resistance Levels [View article]
Editors make final call, no harm done, very often better, certainly from a marketing standpoint
Agreed as well re the rally - never believed in it, but if Washington throws cash at market without historical precedent....
Global Markets Outlook: Key Risk Assets Approaching Multi-Month Resistance Levels [View article]
Beats the heck out of them dumping US dollars on the market
thanks for comments
Inflation: Why Markets Ignored the Fed Rate Hike [View article]
It got attention because most people thought he'd raised the Fed Funds rate - THAT'S the real 'rate increase' that will send the USD higher and most everything else lower.
Nice symbolism, especially in contrast to the UK and ECB, which are looking even more dovish. At least the Fed is kinda/sorta moving in a tightening direction without actually doing much (nor will it unless jobs & spending show sustainable recovery, or bond markets tank and force rates higher so US can continue to weekly bond auctions.
Love the pic - would love a poster of it
A Quick Look at Euro Weakness Fallout [View article]
At best, EUR at some point bottoms, though if Lehman Bros crash alone was enough to freeze over credit markets,crash stocks, imagine what an EU default will do. Did I say default? Meant defaultS. Once Greece or another goes, none of the rest of the weaker economies aka PIIGS + other Eastern European weak economies will be able to sell bonds at rates they can afford, effectively setting off a wave of EU defaults as soon as each has a maturing bond to pay off and needs to sell bonds to do so.
Pay Attention to the Pain of Greece and Spain [View article]
But if this thing isn't resolved, hard to see how we avoid another credit seize up and crash. After all, if Lehman alone could do it in the fall of 2008..... Yes, things have changed. Governments have already spend a lot of their bullets.
Also hard to see how most if not all soveriegn bonds with deficit issues will avoid seeing borrowing costs rise if PIIGS default
Case Study: Making Sense of Markets [View article]
Case Study: Making Sense of Markets [View article]
DAILY OUTLOOK, which usually includes trade recs
WEEKLY OUTLOOK
special reports like this
How to Identify the End of the Downtrend [View article]
Guess global warming IS a good topic for getting comments going.
In view of my beloved readers apparently wanting some diversion from the above topic, I'll toss in another of the subject comment that generally gets a lot of people excited:(this ought to be fun)
Proposed: Israel has the right to pursue enemies at home and abroad seeking its destruction or endangering its citizens (just like every other major power has done in times of war, cold or otherwise). Discuss pros and cons.
Fed Firing Blanks, But the Noise Can Still Cause a Stampede [View article]
Beware Bearish Tripwires [View article]