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Cliff Wachtel, CPA, is currently the Director of Market Research, New Media and Training for, a fast growing forex and CFD broker. He covers a variety of topics including global market drivers, forex, currency hedged and diversified income investing, and is currently working on a... More
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    Given the multi-month recovery in energy prices (aided by the ongoing long term weakness in the US dollars in which energy is priced); one sees a lot written on how to play energy’s recovery.


    For example, in Best Investments for Rising Oil, fellow SA contributor Jason Kelly noted a number of worthy ways to play in long term rise in oil.


    However, most of these do not provide significant dividends, and are thus a pure bet on price appreciation. To profit on them, you need to be right not only on their price direction, but on WHEN to sell. That’s fine if you like to gamble.


    Here’s a better idea. The below stocks offer even better returns and lower risks. Why?


    ·   &nbs... They rise along with energy prices: They rise along with energy prices at similar rates to those ETFs and stocks in the above mentioned article.


    ·   &nbs... High, steady income: They pay some of the highest and most reliable dividends available, typically 7-11%, sometimes more. The energy producer trusts mentioned below have to cut dividends when energy prices are dropping, so their dividends are more risky, but only if you believe energy prices will drop back even more than they did earlier this year.


    ·   &nbs... USD Hedge: The Canadian firms pay their distributions in Canadian dollars, thus providing a USD hedge for those based in US dollars. Many expect the CAD to appreciate against the USD as energy prices recover, fueling additional price and income gains.


    ·   &nbs... Energy infrastructure firms’ income does not drop if energy prices fall:  The Infrastructure firms (both Canadian and American) offer yields that are not only high but unusually steady, as described below.



    So, if you’re in the markets to make money rather than gamble why not place your money in stocks that not only rise right along with energy, but also pay you some of the market’s highest dividends while you hold them.


    I’ve discussed recommended buy prices for many of these in past posts, and hope to go in depth on the US MLPs in the near future. Also, the stock market appears overbought and due for a correction, so this is not the time to be taking more than partial positions, especially with the more thinly traded Canadian stocks, which can be volatile.


    Also, on or before 2011, the Canadian Income Trusts will be taxed at higher rates due to Canadian tax “reform.” As mentioned earlier in 2011, A Canadian Tax Odyssey: Canadian Income Trust Investors' Guide  the firms mentioned below are well positioned to continue to maintain or grow their current distributions. Some have already committed to doing so. If energy prices recover, maintaining current distributions won’t be difficult.



    2. Canadian Oil/Gas Energy Income Trusts


    Their revenues, dividends, and share prices move with energy prices. They dropped 30-60% from last summer to this past winter, and are charging back. For example, check charts of ERF (paying over 8%) and VETMF.PK (paying over 7%). Dividends, yields, and prices will rise if energy continues its move up.


    Plus, you get the added bonus of being paid in Canadian dollars, which are likely to rise against the USD and give those based in USD assets a hedge against the USD.


    ·   &nbs... ARC Energy Trust (OTC: AETUF, TSX: AET-UN)

    ·   &nbs... Claymore/SWM Canadian Energy Income Fund (NYSEARCA:ENY): A fund of these and others.

    ·   &nbs... Enerplus Resources Fund (NYSE:ERF)

    ·   &nbs... Peyto Energy Trust (OTC: PEYUF, TSX: PEY.UN)

    ·   &nbs... Provident Energy Trust (PVX, TSX: PVE.UN)

    ·   &nbs... Vermillion Energy Trust (OTC: VETMF, TSX: VET.UN)


    3. Canadian Clean Energy Income Trusts


    Similar story but also benefit from inevitable government bias toward green energy. Plus that great USD hedge from being paid in CAD.


    ·   &nbs... Energy Savings Income Fund (OTC: JUSTF, TSX: SIF.UN): symbol recently changed from ESIUF

    ·   &nbs... Innergex Power Income Fund (OTC: INRGF, TSX: IEF.UN)

    ·   &nbs... Macquarie Power & Infrastructure (OTC: MCQPF, TSX: MPT.UN)

    ·   &nbs... Great Lakes Hydro Income Fund (OTC: GLHIF, TSX: GLH.UN)


    4. Canadian Energy Infrastructure Income Funds


    In fact, their incomes are mostly fixed by long term volume based contracts, though their prices tend to move with energy anyway, making them especially good buys when energy is down and these companies revenues and dividends remain steady. These too give you the USD hedge by paying you in CAD.


    ·   &nbs... Altagas Income Trust (OTC: ATGFF, TSX: ALA.UN),

    ·   &nbs... Pembina Pipeline Fund (OTC: PMBIF, TSX: PIF.UN)


    5. U.S. Energy Infrastructure Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs)


    The above comments about Canadian Infrastructure Income funds apply here too. They make most of their money on preset volume contracts and thus have steadier income than the above energy producers. As American companies they pay in USD and lack the USD hedge bonus of the Canadian firms. However, they have near monopoly pricing power in their regions of operation (tempered by regulators).


    ·   &nbs... Buckeye Partners (NYSE:BPL)

    ·   &nbs... El Paso Pipeline Partners (NYSE:EPB)

    ·   &nbs... Enterprise Products Partners (NYSE:EPD)

    ·   &nbs... Energy Transfer Partners (NYSE:ETP)

    ·   &nbs... Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (NYSE:KMP)

    ·   &nbs... Magellan Midstream Partners (NYSE:MMP)

    ·   &nbs... Nustar Energy (NYSE:NS)

    ·   &nbs... ONEOK Partners (NYSE:OKS)

    ·   &nbs... Sunoco Logistics Partners (NYSE:SXL)

    ·   &nbs... TEPPCO Partners (TPP),

    ·   &nbs... Tortoise Energy Infrastructure Partners (NYSE:TYG) (actually a basic of MLPs)



    6. U.S. Coal MLPs


    Hardly green energy, but nonetheless essential and often a substitute for oil. As the world economy improves, demand for coal is aided by rising demand for steel, for which certain kinds of coal are needed. Demand for coal isn’t going away, and its price will likely rise with other energy prices, as it always has.


    ·   &nbs... Alliance Resource Partners (NASDAQ:ARLP)

    ·   &nbs... Northern Resource Partners (NYSE:NRP)

    ·   &nbs... Penn Virginia Resources Partners (NYSE:PVR)



















    7. Conclusion, Disclosure & More Info


    While it’s more likely that stock prices may retreat in the near term, energy stocks remain among the best long term plays, especially if you are well paid while you hold them with almost junk bond like returns despite their far safer dividends.


    Opinions presented are strictly those of the author and of those disseminating these articles or otherwise associated with the author.


    The coming articles will examine individual categories and stocks in greater detail.


    Disclosure: I have positions in most of the above mentioned investments.


    Interested in learning more about investing in stocks that provide reliable high dividends with better transparency, appreciation potential, and liquidity than bonds? Visit http://highdividendsto...



    Jun 07 9:37 AM | Link | Comment!
    1. SUMMARY


    While recent news on US economy, especially the non-farms payroll data, as been positive (OK, more like less negative than expected), in the past weeks, a number of powerful long term market trends have continued in currency and commodities markets and should continue over the coming months, albeit with the usual short term counter moves.


    In sum, these include


       &nbs... The weakening dollar against all major currencies

       &nbs... The ensuing up trend in commodity prices (commodities are priced in USD) and their related currencies, the CAD and AUD against other major currencies.



    However, we remain skeptical that the multi-month rally in equity markets will endure. Thus we do not recommend new long positions in them, and await shorting opportunities.


    Here are the details.

    2. What's Killing the Dollar

    The biggest single story is the deterioration of the long term fundamentals of the USD.  Why? In short, President Obama has no choice but to continue to expand the money supply at rates that will badly damage its value.


    A. Why Washington Must Continue to Print Dollars

    Washington has no real choice but to continue inflating money supply at unprecedented rates, because it is faced with a virtually unprecedented situation.


    1.   The Immediate Threat: Lack of Liquidity Causing Financial Collapse


    President Obama is like an emergency room doctor dealing with a patient who has just been shot in the heart and will die in minutes if the heart can't be repaired and the blood circulation restored. The bullet was the subprime crisis and ensuing collapse of the housing and credit markets.


    Thus he must first keep the heart going and stop the bleeding. The heart here is the financial system, particularly the largest institutions like Citibank, Bank of America, and those that insure their huge debt portfolios. It these bleed out liquidity, they will stop beating out available cash to depositors and credit to businesses, the lifeblood of the financial system depends. The heart, the banks cannot stop beating out blood, cash and credit, or the patient, the US economy, dies on the table.


    So the printing of new dollars and expansion of money supply must continue.

    2.   The Underlying Disease – Excess Debt+Money Supply = Weakening Dollar

    Unfortunately, the patient is already suffering from potentially fatal cancer of a weakening USD caused by massive debt, government bailouts of the financial sector, and expansion of money supply to pay these. There is no historical precedent for a country inflating its way to prosperity. While many argue massive spending saved the US from the depression, others would argue that the real cure was that WWII left the about half the world's production destroyed and the US as producer of about half the world's goods and services. But I digress.


    To cure the immediate threat to the patient/economy, the doctor must continue to create new money/blood, which worsens the long term cancer of a weakening USD and inflation. If left unchecked, this cancer of a weakening USD will ultimately force up interest rates and may choke off the liquidity/blood supply from the heart/financial system.


    Oh yes, major organ failure is continuing, with the bankruptcies of GM and Chrysler, plus a slow but steady rise in bank failures. These in turn threaten another spike in unemployment, ensuing residential foreclosures and reduced consumer spending. These in turn could cause further declines in:

       &nbs... Overall business activity

       &nbs... Values of banks’ commercial real estate and mortgage portfolios with further oversupply

       &nbs... Banking income and balance sheet health and more commercial real estate foreclosures

       &nbs... Local tax revenues and ensuing credit worthiness of local governments etc.


    "Doctor Obama to ICU, STAT."


    What's that loud beeping sound? Better fix the heart quickly!


    3. The Results of a Weakening USD for Commodity Markets

    Because they are priced in USD, commodities and their related currencies (AUD and CAD) are expected to continue their long term uptrend as the dollar weakens, even if relative supply and demand remains unchanged. Additional long term reasons for rising commodity prices include:


       &nbs... Upward pressure on oil prices due to both the relatively inelastic long term demand, and the continued solid growth of the Chinese economy.


       &nbs... As the USD's position as currency of last resort fades, demand for gold (and silver) increases because they're seen as safe stores of value.


       &nbs... As China, other export economies, and other large holders of the USD lose confidence in the USD (public statements to the contrary aside), they buy commodities both to hedge (there is no obvious liquid substitute for the USD at this time) their wealth and to ensure a relatively cheap supply to support their production at lower prices.




    4. Equity Indices

    The multi-month trend in equities, however, appears far less durable.


    Since March, major indices continue to rally despite minimal signs of true turnaround in the underlying fundamentals of their economies. Consider:


       &nbs... Most of the positive news on which markets have risen consists of slowing contraction, not growth.


       &nbs... The apparent return to profitability by the financial sector was the cause of the stock markets' latest rally. There is significant evidence that the prior quarter's results were not sustainable. In addition to evidence of outright manipulation of those results (beyond the scope of this article) consider:


    ·   &nbs... Recent problems in commercial mortgages like the failure of GGP, one of the leading mall operators.

    ·   &nbs... Coming interest rate resets in the next 2-3 years and resulting possible increases in foreclosures and erosion of bank residential mortgage portfolios.

    ·   &nbs... the continued deep problems in industries that employ the largest numbers, like construction and autos, and the effects of their decline on the values of the financial sector's residential and commercial lending portfolios.


    The continued rally in the US stock markets has been more of a low volume, low credibility rise based more on short-covering by quant funds than a believable rally supported by real fundamental and technical evidence.


    Could the rally continue for a while yet? Sure, especially with Washington and Wall Street cooperating so, ahem, intimately. But how many are willing to take new long positions after a 30% rise in stock prices without real improvement in underlying fundamentals beyond merely a slowing contraction?






    In sum, we appear to be at the upper end of a trading range, with the overall trend continuing down. Continue to invest only with funds allocated for longer term investment that you don’t need for the next six to eighteen months at least. What you buy now may well go lower.


    1.   Consider a Partial Hedge with Selected Ultrashort ETFs

    Thus, in addition to collecting your high yields, those seeking a more active hedge may wish to consider taking measured positions some of the Ultrashort Proshares ETFs as a partial hedge. For the unfamiliar, these are ETFs that move at twice the inverse of a selected sector of stocks. Thus for example if the S&P 500 index falls 1%, then SDS, its Ultrashort ETF, will rise by 2% (and vice versa).


    The time is ripe to consider some of these. While by nature these are volatile, you want to buy these only as a partial hedge at strong support when the market has just stopped feeling very optimistic, as a rally begins to show signs of fading.


    This looks like the time. Consider taking partial positions in the following.


    ·   &nbs... UltraShort S & P 500 Proshares (NYSEARCA:SDS) – Buy under $60, Strong Buy under $55

    ·   &nbs... UltraShort Financials ProShares (NYSEARCA:SKF) -- Buy Under $50; Strong Buy below $40

    ·   &nbs... UltraShort QQQ ProShares (NYSEARCA:QID) – Buy Under $40, Strong Buy under $35

    ·   &nbs... UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (NYSEARCA:SRS) – Buy Under $30, Strong Buy under $20

    ·   &nbs... UltraShort Russell2000 ProShares (NYSEARCA:TWM) – Buy Under $50, Strong Buy under $40



    If you look at a chart for these, you’ll note my buys are very conservatively low. There is a lot of cash on the sidelines now, earning virtually nothing. Big players and insiders continue buying stocks we’ve been mentioning, because they’re clearly cheap and excellent long term values. As the past few months have shown, any glimmer of positive news brings buyers as everyone is waiting for the sign to jump in. Lots of cash on the sidelines will provide lots of fuel in the tanks for a rally.


    If that happens, these ultrashorts can plummet fast, so you only want to buy them at strong support, so that if these levels don’t hold up you’ll know quickly and can get out before taking a big loss.  Thus place sell stops no more than 10% below the Strong Buy levels to protect your capital. There are other Ultrashorts for other sectors, like the Ultrashort Oil and Gas DUG for shorting oil and gas. This one has been popular, but betting against energy and other commodities is dangerous and strictly for short term traders with expertise in these, so avoid this one. 


    2.   Continue to Take Partial Positions at Our Recommended Strong Support Levels

    Beyond the Ultrashort ETFs if you can earn reliable dividends from 8-12 percent or more while you wait for recovery, ongoing investment makes sense. You just need to find the best bargain priced quality high yield stocks, and collect your income while waiting for the market to improve and offer additional options. As noted above, with a confirmed downtrend and good evidence for a further 20% overall drop, refer to our past recommended buy levels, which are at strong support levels.


    Since prices are up and thus yields are down, many of our stocks are above recommended buy points. Do not chase them, though taking partial positions above these prices is acceptable for those with lots of cash lying fallow. This is particularly so with the energy producers.


    Remember our key criteria for new stock purchases:  In sum, we’re seeking stocks of strong companies that mostly earn and distribute a high dividend in a non-USD currency and have a dominant position in a market for an essential product or service. Ideally, the stock’s fortunes should rise with those of commodities and other hard assets that remain in demand, like residential real estate, power generation and distribution, etc.



    That’s my focus at http://highdividendsto... .



    3.   Use Sell Stops?

    While our emphasis is buy and hold as long as the distribution is safe and fundamentals hold steady, some may want to hedge their bets, especially if they may need the cash within the next year or so. Those in that position should consider using sell stops around 15% below the Strong Buy price as partial principle protection, though you risk getting knocked out of your positions, only to see them come back soon and possibly rise higher while you miss the dividend. It’s a judgment call, though not a bad one for at least some of your holdings given the current pessimism (which of course can change, fast).


    Again, our focus is on getting high yields from healthy businesses whose price will recover while we earn outsized returns, and we don’t try to time the market too much.














    6. Conclusion, Disclosure & More Info


    Bear market rallies are a normal part of bear markets, and they can indeed last for months. While they are driven by positive news, what distinguishes them from market bottoms is the lack of evidence of long term improvement in underlying fundamentals. Slowing contraction is good, but it doesn’t necessarily mean a bottoming.


    Thus we continue to warn, “beware the bear.”


    Opinions presented are strictly those of the author and of those disseminating these articles or otherwise associated with the author.


    The coming articles will examine individual categories and stocks in greater detail.


    Disclosure: I have positions in most of the above mentioned investments.


    Interested in learning more about investing in stocks that provide reliable high dividends with better transparency, appreciation potential, and liquidity than bonds? Visit http://highdividendsto...



    Jun 07 6:33 AM | Link | 1 Comment
    1. Introduction

    What does the past week’s market activity tell the high dividend income investor who is considering taking new long positions to get some return on cash that’s lying fallow? What follows is nothing fancy, people. Just a simple follow up and update to last week’s post Notes on a Scandal: High Dividend Investor's Survival Guide to This Unsustainable Rally, and some practical tips on what to do now.


    Caveat: I’m not a prophet. The following conclusions are just based on the evidence I present below that this is not the time for new long positions.  I’m still innocently (naively?) assuming we have a free, open and transparent market operating. However, given the degree of market manipulation we’ve seen (see Notes on a Scandal: High Dividend Investor's Survival Guide to This Unsustainable Rally) and mentioned in recent posts, one could argue otherwise and try to bet on a continuing rally aided and abetted, legally or not, by team Washington & Wall Street. 


    2. What The Charts Suggest


    A. Chart  1


    Overall market broke its long term downtrend at the end of March, and the rally has stalled out in early May.


     SEE: http://highdividendsto... for image.



    B.  Chart  2


    For the past 6 months the market has traded in a range between 680 and 940.

    See http://highdividendsto... for image





    C. Chart 3

    See http://highdividendsto... for image




    Since the rally stalled in early May, volume on down days is greater than that on up days, and there have been about 3 times more down days than up days. This suggests lack of conviction by market participants.




    3. Conclusions


    A. Be Cautious Taking New Long Positions


    From a very simple technical perspective, the current rally has stalled. From a fundamental perspective, as noted in Notes on a Scandal: High Dividend Investor's Survival Guide to This Unsustainable Rally, the rally is mostly unjustifiable, and arguably the result of outright manipulation by Washington and Wall Street. Perhaps this is for the greater good.  It has allowed at least some of the major banks a rising market into which they can sell stock and raise needed capital from willing investors, not just captive taxpayers. For example, both Goldman Sacks and Bank of America have done so thus far.


    B.  What This means for Dividend Income Investors


    Yes, it hurts to sit with cash producing no income. Because both fundamental and technical evidence suggests it’s more likely that stock prices in the coming months will fall, recent advice still holds. Take only partial positions using cash that will not be needed within the foreseeable future.  Consider taking at least partial profits or losses if you foresee needing to raise cash in the coming months from your stock portfolio. Consider hedging techniques discussed in prior articles.


    For example, for short term hedges consider: UltraShort S & P 500 Proshares (NYSEARCA:SDS), UltraShort Financials ProShares (NYSEARCA:SKF), UltraShort QQQ ProShares (NYSEARCA:QID), UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (NYSEARCA:SRS), UltraShort Russell2000 ProShares (NYSEARCA:TWM).


     For those who can, consider owning Canadian or Australian dollars, or assets based in these currencies. Why? To alter the famous line about plastics from the film, The Graduate, “commodities, Benjamin, commodities.”


    C. The Real Meaning of What Jim Rogers Has Been Saying


    This past week renowned investor Jim Rodgers was widely reported to predict a coming crisis in the currency markets as governments worldwide attempt to bolster their economies by expanding the supply of their currencies, thus ultimately eroding their purchasing power once the world economic situation improves and demand for goods rises.


    Even for those well versed in currency trading, that advice is not easy to put into practical use. If all currencies are inflating, and currencies always trade relative to one another, so how does one know which currency to prefer over another?


    One could consider which currency is being most burdened with debt and thus likely expansion of supply, as suggested by the following IMF (International Monetary Fund) chart provided by Kathy Lien in Will the U.S. Be Next to Receive a Credit Warning?


    See http://highdividendsto... for image





    That might work if you want to trade currencies AND the rest of the market follows the same chart. Maybe it will work, maybe it won’t. Successful trading is not just about being right about the asset, but being right about what the rest of the market will think about it, and when.


    Here’s simpler idea. While choosing the right currency pair may be unclear from Rogers’ remarks, what IS clear is this: commodity prices should be in a long term uptrend, if for no other reason than their being priced in eroding currency, typically US dollars. So invest in instruments that will rise with commodity prices.


    THAT is the obvious implication from Rogers (who has made a few bucks in commodities).



    Thus consider, strongly, one or more of the following investing options:


    ·   &... Commodities themselves via ETFs, CFDs, futures, etc. A  very creative and worthwhile suggestion from a comment I received on an article,  one which  I recently followed – consider a investing in a hybrid car, better home insulation, or other energy saving devices. Yes, cars are depreciating assets, but if you have to commute long distances anyway, the savings could well be worthwhile. FYI I went for a Toyota (TOY) Prius. It handles very well, has sufficient acceleration when needed, and cut my gas bill by more than half. My only complaint is the very primitive sound system, especially considering this is not a cheap car. It’s not strictly an income investment, but a penny saved IS a penny earned. No, it’s better. There is no tax on the penny saved (yet), at least until you invest it.


    ·   &... Convert at least some US dollars to Canadian or Australian dollars (which rise relative to other currencies as commodity prices rise)


    ·   &... Income instruments based on commodities that should rise with them. Many of the stocks I’ve been recommending fit that description, especially WHEN stock prices pull back. These include:


    ·   &... Big Oils: BP, plc (NYSE:BP), CNOOC Ltd. (NYSE:CEO), Enid SpA (NYSE:E), Total Fina Elf (NYSE:TOT)

    ·   &... Canadian Energy Trusts: ARC Energy Trust (OTC: AETUF, TSX: AET-UN), Claymore/SWM Canadian Energy Income Fund (NYSEARCA:ENY), Enerplus Resources Fund (NYSE:ERF), Peyto Energy Trust (OTC: PEYUF, TSX: PEY.UN), Provident Energy Trust (PVX, TSX: PVE.UN), Vermillion Energy Trust (OTC: VETMF, TSX: VET.UN)

    ·   &... Coal MLPs: Alliance Resource Partners (NASDAQ:ARLP), Northern Resource Partners (NYSE:NRP), Penn Virginia Resources Partners (NYSE:PVR)


     The Gabelli Global Gold, Natural Resources & Income Trust (NYSEMKT:GGN): a way to play gold and get income

    ·   &... Canadian Real Estate Trusts: While real estate is not a commodity, it is a hard asset that is inflation resistant. A worthy group of stocks to keep in mind when prices pull in include the Canadian Real Estate Trusts: Canadian Apartment Properties REIT (OTC: CDPYF, TSX: CAR.UN), Northern Property REIT (OTC: NPRUF, TSX: NPR.UN), RIOCAN REIT: (OTC: RIOCF, TSX: REI.UN



    However, again, be cautious about new stock purchases until we see a pullback. Why? Here’s a lesson worth repeating.

    D. Even Great Stocks Usually Follow The Market


    Remember, no matter how good their results, few stocks avoid selloffs when markets decline. So be cautious buying income stocks based in commodities or commodity based currencies at this time.


    For example, look at a chart of Atlantic Power Corporation (OTC: ATPWF.PK, TSX: ATP.UN) compared to the S&P 500 (in red).


    See http://highdividendsto... for image





    Note that ATPWF’s price movement followed that of the S&P 500 index. Despite producing stellar results during this period, including raising dividends while cutting debt and openly declaring the dividend secure for years to come; its price fluctuated in the same directions as the index.


    Ironically, ATPWF’s price was actually more volatile (due to its low daily trading volume), despite its far healthier and more stable revenue stream than almost all companies in the index.


    The lesson: you generally do not take long positions when the evidence suggests prices will drop.  thus even though the recovery of energy prices and stocks seems inevitable, it’s not yet the time to buy. By all means place orders starting near the March lows, though.






    4. Conclusion, Disclosure & More Info

    Again, the Caveat: I’m not a prophet. The following conclusions are just based on the evidence I present below.  I’m still innocently (naively?) assuming we have a free, open and transparent market operating. However, given the degree of market manipulation, (see Notes on a Scandal: High Dividend Investor's Survival Guide to This Unsustainable Rally) mentioned in recent posts, one could argue otherwise and try to bet on a continuing rally aided and abetted, legally or not, by team Washington & Wall Street. 



    Disclosure: I have positions in most of the above mentioned investments.


    Interested in learning more about investing in stocks that provide reliable high dividends with better transparency, appreciation potential, and liquidity than bonds? Visit http://highdividendsto...




    May 28 11:11 AM | Link | 7 Comments
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