Cliff Wachtel's  Instablog

A weekly global financial markets review and analysis for traders of all global markets, stocks, forex, commodities, etc., with special attention to the growing threat of currency devaluation and ways to cope with it

If we look only at how markets moved with the big news items, here are the prior week's top market movers.

The biggest concern this past week was whether Spain would be able to secure a bailout before it once again threatened to default and spark a new EU and global crisis.

Markets fretted about Spain Monday through Wednesday, and rebounded on Thursday's much anticipated Spanish budget release, which led investors to believe Spain will do what's necessary to get its bailout and so at least defer a Spanish default and market crisis.

However by Friday many analysts were already pointing out that the budget was based on unrealistically optimistic assumptions that Spain's GDP will only decline by 0.5% in 2013.

In other words, Spain's budget proposal is just another deception, and if that conclusion becomes the consensus option, we're right back where we were at the start of the week - with markets pressured by rising risk of a new EU crisis (again, probably unavoidable as it's a prerequisite needed to force a deal).

Thus we expect to see more pain from Spain in the weeks ahead until we first hit a crisis (size and duration unknown) that forces a deal). As we discuss below, however, a deal is expected, at least one that keeps things calm through early November. President Obama insists on it.

The big worry is that Europe's fourth largest economy might ultimately not accept the EU bailout, or do so only after other unintended damage is done. Although it probably will, Spain and the EU's ongoing game of chicken risks crashing markets because market may anticipate that Spain won't yield until the situation reaches crisis levels and Spain is at risk of default.

Why the standoff?

The Spanish government is torn between conflicting demands of:

• The EU for more austerity measures to cut its deficit. Without these, there will be no EU aid, which Spain must have to avoid insolvency for both the government and its banking system. Thus far austerity measures have only made things worse for the GIIPS, but austerity remains the price for further aid.
• Popular and Political Opposition: Spain's voters have seen nothing but suffering from the past 3 rounds of austerity in 9 months, and fear of another one has brought unrest and opposition that could bring new elections. Meanwhile, Spanish leaders fear not only the wrath of voters, but also the scrutiny of Troika auditors, who are likely to find untold amounts of hidden debt in Spain's notoriously cooked books.

Thus, in theory, there remains a real chance that Spain and the EU might not reach a bailout deal before markets start to dive on fear of a Spain default.

It's not clear how this will end, at least on a superficial level.

• On the one hand, there's no question that Spain needs the bailout. The ECB is the only real buyer for its bonds, and unless Spain cooperates, the ECB could simply stop buying them and consign Spain to default. The EU's biggest ally may well be Spanish depositors, who continue to withdraw funds from Spanish banks and keep up pressure for a deal before Spain's banks are bled dry by their own depositors.

• On the other, the default of the EU's 4th largest economy could crash the EU and probably global markets as well, so the EU cannot simply dictate terms, because at some point Spain can credibly threaten to drag the world down with it.

If you want proof of how much the EU wants to avoid any default risk that could spark a contagion of sovereign and bank insolvencies, look how the EU has yet to enforce bailout commitments with Greece. If Europe can't accept the consequences of a Greek default, how much more so it fears a much larger Spanish default. Indeed, according to Reuters, two German magazines have reported that despite its noncompliance with prior aid agreements and lack of progress in making reforms, Greece will in fact get the next tranche of 31 bln euros before the next Eurogroup finance ministers meeting on October 8th.

Per one anonymous senior EU official, the fear of a domino effect in the EZ is too great to not release the funds.

However, if you accept this reason, then the bailouts must keep coming indefinitely, and the agreements on which they're based are unenforceable.

It's hard to see the funding nations accepting this situation of being obligated to endless bailouts and money printing. So what's really happening?

As I wrote last week, sometimes the biggest market mover is that which prevents what would have been dramatic events from happening.

On the surface, the EU's reluctance to get tough with Greece is surprising. Its default is not considered a fatal risk, and so it makes sense that the EU set an example with Greece in order to encourage compliance from the rest of the bailout bunch. Otherwise, EU credibility is shot with both debtor nations and, more dangerously, global financial markets. If the EU can't enforce reform agreements, how can it survive?

The EU is creating a classic moral hazard by tolerating Greece's non-compliance.

So why does the EU risk moral hazard and let Greece flout EU agreements?

The only good explanation for this behavior is the one I gave in last week's post, JUST 2 THINGS REALLY MATTER THIS WEEK-BOTH FROM WASHINGTON: that the Obama administration has kindly requested that the EU maintain quiet until after the US elections. A crisis and market plunge could be fatal for Obama's reelection chances.

The big take away point is that for all the EU drama, Europe's leadership will do its utmost to see that none of it gets serious enough to rattle markets until after early November. This theory explains the EU's indulgence of Greek failures better than anything else.

More importantly, it also suggests the rest of the GIIPS, including Spain and Italy, will get what's needed to keep markets calm. So even Europhobes like me can be a bit calmer in the coming weeks.

Granted, that could get expensive for the EU, though its leadership seems to think the investment is worthwhile.

The implied payoff is that a grateful reelected President Obama will graciously volunteer US taxpayers to help continue funding the failing currency union.

Even if we accept that the EU will do all it can to keep a lid on things until after the US elections, that's no guarantee that Spain can be stabilized. For example:

• There's risk of a no confidence vote in Spain bringing new elections and delays to any bailout scheme

• If secessionists in the Catalonia region take control (a possibility), we could see a standoff with the central government that also paralyzes Spain's ability to close a bailout deal.

The other big market mover was speculation about and the announcement of a new $28.5 bln China stimulus program. As usual, markets ignored the fundamentally bad news that China must resort to stimulus, and instead investors bid risk assets higher in anticipation of a short term rally.

The PBoC became the 4th major central bank in four weeks to announce new liquidity injections. While the prior three from the ECB, Fed, and BoJ have yet to even produce a sustained rally, the initial reaction to China's move was positive. Combined with the Spain budget announcement, the new, relatively modest (QE 2 was $600 bln) China stimulus sparked the first broad based rally in 12 sessions.

There were a few other events that briefly moved markets.

• German Ifo business confidence survey missed expectations

• Heavy equipment maker Catapillar's earnings miss was seen as a negative sign for the sector

Data was otherwise mixed and of no major influence

We expect Washington's "maintain quiet" to continue to be the big stealth market mover in the coming weeks, as it will keep an otherwise volatile EU situation from scaring markets. So short term traders may use the occasional scary headlines about imminent default s as opportunities for establishing long positions that can be closed when the moment of reckoning is deferred and markets bounce in relief.

As for longer term traders and investors….

So what do you do? Where do you run? Where do you hide?

It's not the time to go long risk assets. A combination of slowing global growth and pricey risk asset markets (still pumped up from correctly anticipated stimulus over the past months) suggests that this is not the time to take new long positions in risk asses.

But it's too early to short them, given that key global indices have signaled any technical breakdown, and once stimulus programs get going they could inflate asset prices higher.

Gold has momentum, but only another 5% move higher brings it back to all time highs and the QE news driving it is already out. We'd reconsider gold on a breakout past historical highs or a retreat back to multi-month support of 1560.

Yields on classic safe havens like AAA bonds are low.

A look at the charts for the EURUSD and USD index show neither currency presents a tempting technical picture, with both in long term down trends. Moreover, both currencies have deep fundamental problems:

The EUR: At best it's due for a period of money printing that will likely ultimately devalue it. At worst the monetary union has genuine existential threats and could break up.

The USD: Also is due for a prolonged period of pressure from unlimited monetary expansion, and also has the coming fiscal cliff issues (likely to be deferred yet again with resulting higher US debt and money printing - 2 long term factors eroding the USD's value).

There's no shortage of speculation and free advice online about what markets may do in the coming weeks and beyond.

So I'll focus for now on doing what no one else is doing: reminding everyone to avoid the most common, least mentioned investor mistake: failing to hedge their currency risk.

Just like any prudent investor diversifies their holdings by sector and asset class, they must also diversify their currency exposure to avoid the likely loss of purchasing power to come from what's becoming unlimited money printing.

With most leading central banks either actively expanding their money supply or preparing to do so, they are likely to end up devaluing their respective currencies. So the need for this is obvious for anyone whose wealth is mostly denominated in the USD, EUR, or JPY, the three most widely held currencies (as well as for those based in currencies of export based economies that may devalue their currencies in order to keep their exports competitive.

While forex markets may seem like the obvious address, the usual forex trading methods are often too risky and demanding for most people. Much of the mainstream financial media rejects forex altogether for this reason.

So on one hand everyone needs to diversify currency exposure, but on the other the most commonly known forex trading methods aren't right for most people. Per CFTC reports, about 70% of traders aren't profitable.

It doesn't have to be that way. Forex is far too valuable a baby to toss out with the bathwater based on the wrong information and methods.

Fortunately, whether you're a trader or long term investor with no interest in trading, there are numerous safer, simpler ways to get this must-have diversification without excessive risk or time commitments. Seehere for details on the only forex book written for mainstream investors and risk averse traders, and here for more info on a free course based on the book.

Here's one brief example of a relatively simple, low risk approach for those not even interested in trading currencies. If you have cash you don't need in the coming years, seek solid Canadian, Australian, and Norwegian dividend paying stocks. They'll provide not only steady income but do so in currencies likely to hold their value or appreciate versus most other major currencies. Unlike other nations with solid balance sheets (like Switzerland) they aren't actively trying to drive their currencies lower. I get into this topic in greater depth in the book.

Of course plenty of advisors recommend foreign dividend stocks. However few ever consider the critical currency component, which can turn a winner into a loser or vice versa.

DISCLOSURE /DISCLAIMER: THE ABOVE IS FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY, RESPONSIBILITY FOR ALL TRADING OR INVESTING DECISIONS LIES SOLELY WITH THE READER.

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Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

A weekly global financial markets preview and analysis for traders of all global markets, stocks, forex, commodities, etc., with special attention to the growing threat of currency devaluation and ways to cope with it

Of all the potential market movers in this typically event-packed first week of the month, the biggest is arguably the one you won't hear anything about. So we've listed it first.

Remember, sometimes the biggest market movers exercise power by suppressing rather thancausing great volatility.

As noted in our weekly review , the EU's continued aid to Greece despite numerous reasons not to do so seems to confirm last week's Reuter's report that the EU is essentially under orders from Washington not to allow any default threats until after the US November elections.

That means no matter how dire the headlines, nothing too unpleasant is likely to happen in the EU until after these elections. Given the potentially enormous costs to the EU and its leaders by continuing to fund Greece, never mind far larger economies like Spain, we assume the expected reward from Washington outweighs these costs, including:

1. Additional funds lost in bad loans to Greece
2. Additional funds at risk of loss from purchases of Spain, Italy and other GIIPS bonds even when these nations refuse to accept conditions which might give lenders hope of being repaid
3. Moral hazard from funding nations that fail to make progress in cutting debt or making other reforms, which complicates getting other GIIPS to cooperate with existing bailout plans
4. Risks to the long term reputations of EU leaders who are complicit in this Obama reelection plan if history shows they did nothing but dig themselves into a deeper hole
5. Raising the risk of facing a far less sympathetic Romney administration in the event of Republican victory

Whatever the anticipated payoff from Washington, it must be considerable. US taxpayers beware. Again, if Romney wins, whatever anticipated favors will not only be off the table, but also EU leaders will need to pay up again to pacify a Romney administration with a grudge against them (albeit limited by the knowledge that bad news in the EU is bad news for the US).

In sum, Spain, Greece, et. al. could well provide scary headlines but are unlikely to be in real danger for the coming weeks.

As we've mentioned earlier, the biggest market mover may be this "keep quiet" order that prevents volatility that might otherwise have occurred.

Note however, that there's no guarantee that US and EU leaders can really control events or market sentiment even in the short term. In Spain's Catalonia region (which is a net revenue contributor to Madrid), there's 90% support for secession. At minimum they want an equal level of budgetary autonomy as that granted the Basque region. If granted, that alone creates an additional hole in Madrid's budget. However if Madrid yields, there are two other net revenue contributor regions that will likely want the same deal, further destabilizing Spain economically and politically. No wonder Spain's military is sounding restive about the need to subdue these movements.

So EU headlines retain the potential to override anything else that's happening, even the traditionally influential US jobs reports this week.

Moreover, even if quiet can be kept through November, EU default risks are likely to come roaring to the forefront again, so any calm in the EU is strictly for use by short term traders.

We find it hard to believe that the few remaining funding nations (Germany, Holland, Finland) will indefinitely accept endless bailouts or potential dilution of the EUR through unlimited money printing, or that the debtor nations will submit to years of increasing austerity and contraction. Even if the costs of exiting the EUR are high, someone's voters are likely to hit a breaking point and cause some degree of EZ breakup.

Spain's budget announcement Thursday was initially greeted with enthusiasm as it appeared to demonstrate Spain's commitment to cutting its budget deficit and qualifying for a bailout that would remove default risk for the near future.

However by Friday many analysts were already noting that the budget was based on unrealistically optimistic assumptions about Spain's GDP declining by only 0.5% in 2013. For example

• BofA Merrill Lynch forecasts -1.7 % GDP
• SocGen expects -2.2 %
• Citi predicts-3.2 %

If these predictions gain wider acceptance, which is likely given Spain's history of dubious reporting standards, then disappointed markets could sell off on renewed anxiety that the ongoing game of chicken between Spain and the EU could resume, and Spain and possibly the EU, could collapse soon due to lack of bailout.

These could potentially be THE big market mover this week. Whether they are depends solely on whether they get wider acceptance.

Remember, the above Reuters report about Washington's "no October defaults" request is not widely accepted at this time, although the EU's continued cash aid to Greece regardless of Greek noncompliance, despite the significant costs noted above, certainly suggests that the Reuters report is valid.

If Europe stays quiet next week, these and the related reports (ISM Mfg and services PMIs, ADP NFP) that feed speculation about the final BLS reports Friday could move markets in general and almost certainly will move the USD, and thus also the EUR and most other major pairs, because the USD is the most common counterpart for most major and second tier currencies.

Speculation about the potential failure of the Federal Reserve and QE infinity will likely increase if job growth again falls below 100k as it did last month. The leading indicators available thus far for non-farm payrolls are equivocal. Consumers are bit more optimistic, but jobless claims have are rising and weaker manufacturing conditions are reported in many regions. For example on Friday manufacturing activity in the Chicago region dropped to its lowest level since September 2009, shrinking for the first time in 3 years. While there was some minor improvement in jobless claims last week, the 4-week moving average continued higher. Without that improvement in jobless claims, that moving average would be higher still. The NFP figure is expected to be around last month's levels-not great at all, in line with the generally stagnant US growth picture, which was further supported by last week's mixed data.

Five major central banks will make potentially market moving appearances this week.

Four of them will be making monetary policy announcements: the Reserve Bank of Australia, European Central Bank, Bank of England and Bank of Japan. After having just announced additional monetary stimulus in September, no additional action is expected from the ECB and the BoJ. However markets have retreated after these announcements in a classic "sell the news" move (after having bought on the rumor of anticipated new easing over the prior weeks), so it will be interesting to hear what they say.

Here's what to listen for:

If the ECB and the BoJ focus on damage control and talk about how it takes time for the stimulus to filter down to the economy, investors will interpret this to mean that they aren't ready to do more, and that could hurt risk appetite.

However if they continue to show concern and stress that they haven't run out of options and their powers are unlimited, then their attitude of being ready to do more in should lift risk asset markets in general. While news of additional stimulus usually hurts a currency, it might ironically help the EUR because:

• It's a risk currency and so benefits from risk appetite.
• It's very survival is at risk.
• The EUR stimulus hasn't started, the Fed's has: For all the talk about the ECB's being unlimited, that program can't begin until Spain actually asks for a bailout, which it may not do for a while yet. Meanwhile the Fed is already actively easing and in theory diluting the value of the USD. Thus more easing for the EUR is unlikely to hurt it much versus the USD.

The Bank of England is moving towards increasing their own asset purchase program but we don't expect them to do anything in October. The same holds for the Reserve Bank of Australia, as neither have enough reason to rush into monetary easing.

However if Spain is downgraded by Moody's and that move sets off widespread volatility in the financial markets, then these banks might move faster in hopes of calming markets.

Also, Fed Chairman Bernanke speaks and there will also be a release of FOMC meeting minutes.

Earnings season officially kicks off with basic metals bellwether Alcoa's October 9th earnings release, but that may not stop early speculation, especially given the negative tone of early guidance over the past month from other global sector leaders like Fedex (air shipping), or Caterpillar (heavy construction equipment).

On Wednesday we've the first of 3 scheduled debates between Obama and Romney. Obama currently leads in the polls. This might be market moving if Romney is seen as the winner and poll results show a tightening race, which means more political uncertainty on one hand, but on the other is an improvement for Romney, who is seen as more market-friendly, and more likely to resolve fiscal cliff issues if he brings Republican control of Congress.

Here are just the most important ones that weren't mentioned above. For further details consult any good economic calendar like those of :

• Dailyfx.com
• Forexfactory.com

Top events to watch:

• Sunday: Japan Tankan large mfg index Q3
• Monday: US ISM mfg PMI survey
• EZ PPI for August
• Wednesday: EZ retail sales, US ISM non-mfg PMI survey, ADP NFP report
• Thursday: US FOMC meeting minutes release

Despite the uncertainty, the most pressing investor dilemma is becoming more obvious than ever. Consider:

1. In the past four weeks, we've had 4 of the top central banks opt for massive new money printing schemes.

2. The BoE is likely to join them in the coming months, meaning that the 4 most widely held of the major currencies (the USD, EUR, JPY, and GBP) are now seeing dramatic expansion in supply. Historically this eventually leads to loss of purchasing power (aka inflation) and is a stealth tax on anyone whose assets are denominated in these currencies.

3. Any near term solution for keeping the EU solvent is almost certain to involve even more money printing.

4. The likely near term solution to the US fiscal cliff (cuts in spending and tax hikes due to hit at the end of the year) will be to simply defer it, meaning the US prints even more money needed to buy its own bonds to fund a still growing deficit.

5. Devaluation Breeds Devaluation: As these currencies lose value, other export based economies will feel forced to devalue their own currencies in order to keep their exports competitive. The Swiss, Japanese, and now Chinese are actively intervening to lower their currencies. Expect others to follow.

6. As we noted last week, the Fed appears willing to tolerate 3% inflation - a 30% per decade hit to your purchasing power and wealth. In other words, just to stay where you are, you'll need to increase your income and asset value by 30% every 10 years. With 10 year US notes yielding around 1% and incomes stagnant? Good luck with that.

For those with most of their assets denominated in one of the above currencies, or one of the export economy currencies likely to join the race to the bottom of currency values, there's no choice but to diversify your currency exposure. At minimum you reduce the loss of wealth from declines in your local currency. Ideally, you get assets denominated in stronger ones and benefit from their appreciation.

Everyone's Big Currency Dilemma: Can't Live With Forex, Can't Live Without It

While forex markets may seem like the obvious address, the usual forex trading methods are often too risky and demanding for most people. Much of the mainstream financial media rejects forex altogether for this reason.

So on one hand everyone needs to diversify currency exposure, but on the other the most commonly known forex trading methods aren't right for most people. Per CFTC reports, about 70% of traders aren't profitable.

It doesn't have to be that way. Forex is far too valuable a baby to toss out with the bathwater of ignorance, of the wrong information about currency markets and ways to trade them.

There Are Solutions

Fortunately, whether you're a trader or long term investor with no interest in trading, there are numerous safer, simpler ways to get this must-have diversification without excessive risk or time commitments. Seehere for details on the only forex book written for mainstream investors and risk averse traders, and here for more info on a free course based on the book.

You Don't Even Need To Be A Trader

Here's one brief example of a relatively simple, low risk approach for long term investors who are not interested in trading currencies. If you have cash you don't need in the coming years, seek solid Canadian, Australian, and Norwegian dividend paying stocks. They'll provide not only steady income but do so in currencies likely to hold their value or appreciate versus most other major currencies. Unlike other nations with solid balance sheets (like Switzerland) they aren't actively trying to drive their currencies lower. I get into this topic in greater depth in the book.

Of course plenty of advisors recommend foreign dividend stocks. However few ever consider the critical currency component, which can turn a winner into a loser or vice versa. The book will show you simple ways for identifying the currencies to which you want some exposure, and how to find the right related stocks, bonds, or other asset types.

DISCLOSURE /DISCLAIMER: THE ABOVE IS FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY, RESPONSIBILITY FOR ALL TRADING OR INVESTING DECISIONS LIES SOLELY WITH THE READER.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

Highlights of Thursday's ECB press conference, mostly paraphrased from seekingalpha.com's glories market currents section

We warned markets were likely to be disappointed by the ECB's press conference Thursday given its limited powers and German opposition to expanding them and to an ESM banking license. Here are some highlights from the ECB meeting.

Draghi: says his comments last week made "no reference" to a bond purchase program. He understands the consequences as "everybody read what they want" into the London speech, but reiterates any action must stay within the ECB mandate

Draghi: Rejects idea ESM (the permanent rescue fund) can get a banking license, saying the current legal structure does not allow it to become an eligible banking partner to the ECB. At this point, essentially all that was drawn from his comments last week has been shot down. European shares and the euro have staged a 2-3% reversal since the press conference started.

Draghi: European shares and the euro fall as the ECB chief is talking a tough game, announcing no new plan this implies he doesn't have the support (Germans) to undertake anything concrete yet. The euro - previously on a tear - falls back, chops around as no rate cut is bullish for EUR, somewhat balances the negative news of ECB inaction.

Disclosure: no new positions intended in coming days, for informational purposes only

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.